Japan's 'demographic crisis'

[Belkov]

Being part of the UK, Japan's ageing population and looming demographic crisis has been frequently citied in the immigration debate here.

It has always occurred to me is whether there is an alternative to changing demographics apart from the population pyramid of keeping adding to the population through immigration? Most, if not all, industrialised societies in the world have went from one where large families where the norm to one of smaller families and to a growing part, where males are not seeking to start families. The basic reality is there will come to a point where those of working age can't financially support those retired until the age demographics platues to a sustainable one. However, is it possible through technology and other measures to overcome this?

I see that there is a recent article on child care and labour reforms to try and boost birth rates but should attempts to increase future countries populations be the only solution or even if it is something that need to be considered at all?

It's obvious Japan doesn't want to go the route of the US and western countries of immigration but could technology, in particular robotics and A.I. be a solution that could in theory massively increase productivity? I had read about a pilot of Japanese couriers using drone to deliver packages in rural areas. Given the communal spirit of Japanese society, these drones could deliver packages to central areas where they are left for customers to collect without fear of theft. That could work in Japan but would never work elsewhere.

A thing that I had seen about the pandemic was that some restaurants in Japan had installed vending machines where customers could collect the dishes they ordered. Another type of technological solution that would work easily in Japan but not elsewhere.

As well as technology, there are other more innovative changes as well. I had read years ago about a city in Japan that pursued a policy of 'shrinking their city', where they provided financial incentives to elder citizens to move from the peripheries in towards the city centre where the social and support services where revitalised. This not only helped deal with the ageing population of the city but also revitalised the city centre economy that was been hurt by a falling population.

I'm not trying to play down the issue of ageing demographics that is affecting every industrialised country but trying to argue that isn't such a drastic issue that requires drastic solution as seen here in the UK where the population is projected to increase by about 20 million through immigration.

I'm interested to hearing other opinions in light of Japan and whether Japan could provide solutions to the issue.

 

[Lothor]

Technological changes to alleviate the problems caused by the labour shortage are being actively researched (and not just in Japan), and the idea has been enthusiastically seized by Japanese politicians who see the opportunity to promote homegrown technology while limiting the need for those pesky foreigners. The changes that have actually been implemented tend to be more mundane than the ones excitedly promoted (robots carrying residents of care homes), for example, the streamlining of administration so that people can print off some legal documents (e.g., residence status) at local convenience stores and self-checkout tills in supermarkets.

In practice, I think that Japanese politicians are biting the bullet and have quietly resigned themselves to the fact that a future Japan will be less 'Japanese' than they'd like, and are reforming the countries migration policies to make it more attractive for non-Japanese people to work in Japan.

 

[johnnyG]

Japan's replacement rate is now ~1.36. But in western media, it's Japan that often leads on stories like this, over...

Korea: 0.78 (!)
Taiwan: ~1.22
China: ~1.18

One difference is that Japan's older cohort is already there, and that while the problem in those other countries is impendingly more serious, it is a little further off. (depending on which country one might be talking about)

However, Japan is also the most developed of these four, which is an advantage when dealing with situation. Better to encounter this with a certain amount of development already 'in hand', than to reach it without that. Korea and Taiwan are at least comparatively well developed and will probably be better able to cope, but I have little hope for China--by the 2030s China will have some difficulties, enough that the present and coming situation in Japan will look like a cakewalk.

And tho the stereotype is that Japan is very closed to immigration, and I would agree that the present level is inadequate, those other countries have even larger obstacles to immigration--and permanent residence, even naturalization. They might be baby steps, but at least some steps are being taken. I mean, foreigners do retire and stay in Japan, check on how many comparable folks choose to retire in Korea. Or China?!?!? Tho it's not policy, that is an indicator of how friendly each place is to immigrants.

Eg, one common point of discussion among english teachers is that 'you can save more in Korea." Yes, you can, but your employer there literally "owns" your visa, while in Japan your visa is very much not dependent on your workplace. Housing (due to key money, etc) is unaffordable in Korea, which is why most if not many jobs supply a free apartment. OTOH, in Japan any number of foreigners have bought their own houses/condos, can get housing loans, and so on.

 

[Belkov]

Thanks Lothor & johnnyG for bringing different perspectives on this subject.

It does sound like that technology, practical solutions and yes, immigration is the only answer to their demographics problem. Hopefully they can implement an immigration policy that is benefical to their society and culture.

Just a thought on immigration which may or not have any relevance. Japan has a lot of soft power throughout the world with video games, Otaku subculture - Anime Manga, vtubers etc. I wonder if that could be used both to attracted foreigners to come and work in that country and be a sort of positive social conditioning where the media protrays positive behaviours that will allow living in Japan be both beneficial for both incomers and natives or at least give a more realistic represenation of life in Japan? I'm not sure if that would work in practice but possibly a young person raised on Otaku may have already done research on Japan beforehand, have a realistic expectation of what life is like there and be better able to fit in.

Going a bit off-topic, in terms of technological solutions mentioned by Lothor with automation of citizens interaction with government bodies, I've been hesitant about using digital government services for instance renewing road tax, passports etc due to the bad reputation of these services having security breaches. However, because of the pandemic, I am more comfortable with using them and haven't had problems so far. This technological solution will have a positive impact and Japanese people will wonder why it didn't happen so sooner. It could well be that since Japan hasn't adopted this sooner, they are better placed to have these digital services more efficiently and securely.

 

[johnnyG]

Just a thought on immigration which may or not have any relevance. Japan has a lot of soft power throughout the world with video games, Otaku subculture - Anime Manga, vtubers etc. I wonder if that could be used both to attracted foreigners to come and work in that country and be a sort of positive social conditioning where the media protrays positive behaviours that will allow living in Japan be both beneficial for both incomers and natives or at least give a more realistic represenation of life in Japan? I'm not sure if that would work in practice but possibly a young person raised on Otaku may have already done research on Japan beforehand, have a realistic expectation of what life is like there and be better able to fit in.

This is a touchy issue on reddit forums here. The problem is that people abroad (prospective immigrants/workers) form an impression/opinion of japan based on anime or manga, and then when they get here they run smack dab into reality. A kind of culture shock, in that life here is not like they pictured it as a fan. Some foreigners here are fed up with and/or very dismissive of otaku who have come here to fulfill their fantasies and dreams.

No direct experience, just some comments I've read, but something comparable has occurred in korea. Korean TV and media show an idealized version of men and life there (to put it politely), which has attracted at least a few foreign women ("I'd like to go meet some men like that."). As with otaku being shocked when they get to japan, I've read that a similar thing happens to foreign who go looking for mr. ideal in korea.

And of course many immigrants to the US discover a different reality when they get there.

 

[Belkov]

This is a touchy issue on reddit forums here. The problem is that people abroad (prospective immigrants/workers) form an impression/opinion of japan based on anime or manga, and then when they get here they run smack dab into reality. A kind of culture shock, in that life here is not like they pictured it as a fan. Some foreigners here are fed up with and/or very dismissive of otaku who have come here to fulfill their fantasies and dreams.

No direct experience, just some comments I've read, but something comparable has occurred in korea. Korean TV and media show an idealized version of men and life there (to put it politely), which has attracted at least a few foreign women ("I'd like to go meet some men like that."). As with otaku being shocked when they get to japan, I've read that a similar thing happens to foreign who go looking for mr. ideal in korea.

And of course many immigrants to the US discover a different reality when they get there.

I became aware of the TV series Tokyo Vice. My attraction to it wasn't because of it's setting but because of the neo-noir genre it was set in and the involvement of the film-maker Michael Mann. I eventually watched the series after it come out and from there my interest in modern Japanese society and culture grew.

From there, I had got involved in the Otoku sub-culture. A lot of it is nonsense but there was some of the fantasy Manga that I enjoyed I am more attracted to the slice of life stuff including Oshi no Ko which at least gives a more realistic viewpoint of modern Japanese life and culture.

Government interference in the entertainment industry in order to achieve a desired goal rarely works but I wonder if it is possible that government officials could work with the entertainment industry to say promote media to an international audience in order to protray this more realistic viewpoint of Japan to potential immigrants in the way which I had described?

 

[Majestic]

I wonder about he rural/urban divide as well. Japan's rural places are depopulating, and everyone is moving to the major urban centers (and Tokyo in particular). How to save Japan's rural places, farmlands, etc? Or is it a lost cause? Is there a case for allowing farm worker immigrants, or is that just too 19th & 20th century?