Maciamo said:
Very interesting. That really sounds like a specialists' knowledge. So half of the US forces in Japan are in Okinawa, and these are the ones that would protect Taiwan. Does the Japanese government also have to support them financially, and does Taiwan also contribute to the bill ?
I struggle with this belief.
While I admit that one does not usually ask the opinion of the sword about when it is to be drawn and at what target it is to be wielded, there are things about military operations that are a constant. I find that many of those are missing when it comes to an amphibious op-plan to send forces to Taiwan.
Assuming sufficient amphibious lift to send III MEF forces from
Okinawa to Taiwan (a rash assumption since there are simply not enough gray-bottomed hulls out there in the WestPac Gator Navy to do the job
at this time), one would expect some of the base-plate staff work to be pre-loaded. It takes more than a CIA area study to put the (reduced strength) 3d Marine Division on the ground there, gang.
It would help if, for example, if the hundreds of detailed maps needed to coordinate air, artillery, and naval gunfire support were present. I am talking about topographic relief maps, not road maps, and finely detailed artillery maps, along with aerial photographic surveys, and so forth. And these maps would be needed in the thousands since every battalion commander would need several and each company commander would need at least one for
each area of operation he would enter during the mission, and so forth.
Yes, I assume that the maps and charts could be made available, however, comma, unlikely in the numbers needed. And we are talking about an operation that would need to be spring-loaded, ready to jump off the line of departure at a moment's notice--I assume that the PRC is not likely to send engraved invitations for this dance in advance. We'll have little time to prepare.
The officers and SNCO's will need time to orient their missions to those maps, to study key terrain features, identify choke points, essential mission objectives, and a whole host of other things that you will not learn about by reading your History 101 text. To prepare a massive mount-out, you really need the dog-eared, re-folded, grease-pencil-marked copies that have been used in op-plan meetings for months/years/what-have-you. I would expect this if the sole mission of III MEF was to prepare to retake/reinforce Taiwan. Or, even if it was the primary mission. IMHO, such is simply not the case.
And we have only started with maps. There are lots of other things to consider. I believe it is safe to say that few out here on this Forum have the least bit of knowledge about what it takes to pack out and go to war, excepting myself. I have participated in this art form too many times.
The obvious signs that III MEF is engaged in preparation to imminently ship out to Taiwan are absent. Certainly, there are some plans. There is probably general planning in existance for making a landing in Antartica, but nothing in the detail one would expect if Antartica was a primary objective.
Besides, unless you are utterly devoid of historical knowledge, everyone should know that FMF forces have been given the mission to go just about anywhere and do just about anything. They are not limited to one mission of any kind, and certainly not to the extent that it is the one for which they train. Far more activity has been expended for landings in and assistance of the ROK or even the PI.
At least this is how I see it.