by Zhang Ming
BEIJING, Aug. 23 (Xinhuanet) -- According to newly released data by the Japanese government, Japan's nominal gross domestic Product (GDP) was worth $1.286 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.335 trillion for China, indicating that China will certainly overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy this year.
This news sparked worldwide attention, with overseas media, especially, clamoring for China to take a more central role on the world stage as its economy expands.
Well, how should we rationally treat the phenomenon?
Analysts who are against using GDP as the primary indicator of a country's overall strength prefer the concept of per capita GDP. According to the International Monetary Fund, China's GDP per capita in 2009 was only $3,566, significantly lower than that of Japan ($39,573). China only ranked 99th worldwide in terms of per capita GDP.
.....Japan has entered an aging society, but before that they got rich. Though Japan experienced the bursting of the real estate bubble, it was at a time when the nation's per capita GDP had reached $20,000.
So, if China cannot rein in its monetary policy in the future, the nation's looming assets bubble might collapse when per capita GDP is at about $4,000 to $5,000. If the bubble bursts and leads to recession, we have to face the challenge of "aging before getting rich".....