President Trump: Thanks for the flowers. What we really want are ships.
PM Takaichi: You've already got them.
Trump: Thanks, this was easier than I thought. When?
Takaichi: Like I said, you've already got them.
Trump: Come again?
Takaichi: Let me elaborate and refresh your memory.
***
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...954f-7790-4893-a730-a830ce9b6458_960x720.heic
At a high level, many forces already attacking Iran are being "borrowed" from Japan. Let us remind you that we pay the US nearly
$1.5bln a year for the privilege of hosting forces who, according to our 1960 Treaty, are supposed to be dedicated to the defense of Japan and the Indo-Pacific region.
Yet, even as China's threat to the Indo-Pacific gathers force, you are drawing down defenses in Japan. Let's get specific:
Most obvious is the deployment of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Force, the
Tripoliand other support ships to the Persian Gulf from their Japan home ports. Next, but certainly no less important, is the exhaustion of significant magazine capacity in Iran, including missiles made by Japanese firms on your behalf. Finally, and most important, are the ships we don't see. The US has spent literally tens of billions of dollars on failed or
delayed frigate, carrier, submarine and
missile programs while denying critical technology to Japan, especially in the F-35
program (we will pass over the fact that Canada and the UK
are full F-35 partners).
As a result, we have double-spent to create
alternatives that, thankfully for both of us,
fill the gaps in the US arsenal at a critical time. As China races ahead in shipbuilding, the US has only one carrier in the Pacific (to China's four). The two carriers in Iran are barely able to function. Most of the others are in drydock, and the
Ford is off station for sewage (!) repairs. Were it not for the superior maintenance services provided by Japan and Korea, even more ships would be unavailable to the Navy.
Our $500mm
Mogami class frigates are superior to anything you have on the drawing board, and we've built 11 of them. They are currently on station in the Pacific filling the role of your dozens of unbuilt ships, putting our sailors in harm's way. Had your contractors spent just $10 bln of the over $250bln they spent on buybacks commissioning frigates from us, you'd have 20 more working ships with about the same naval force (because we require far fewer crew members per function). Another $10bln would have bought 10
Maya destroyers from us or
Sejongs from Korea.
Fortunately for you, we, together with the Koreans and the Taiwanese, have built the ships and
missiles that you could not or would not. We have preserved supply chain integrity that your MBA-equipped CEOs thought "
inefficient." And we have paid for over $25bln of
equipment that is over five years late.
We all agree that China is the biggest threat, yet, because of your own decisions, you do not have the forces to defend us. We are shouldering this burden willingly without pointing fingers. Everyone makes mistakes. We've made more than our share. So let's look ahead rather than back.
What we will not do:
Commit ships to escort duty in the Persian Gulf.
What we may do:
Join a multi-national force to enforce something similar to the Haas proposal:
"Open to all/closed for all." Details matter on this idea.
Our price:
- You immediately refund all the payments for weapons not yet delivered. We will renegotiate arms deals on a mutually agreeable basis that will include your fixing the Jones act and other legislation required to allow Japanese companies to directly build for the US Navy. We want our companies to have a chance at competing for joint contracts. We think this helps both of us.
- If we put capital into LNG and shale projects in the US, we want preferential terms that guarantee us priority access over all other customers for supply and a 20% discount to MFN prices on all US energy supplies.
- We want a guarantee that all US nuclear projects will have at least 50% Japanese content and/or that Japanese advanced nuclear designs will receive equal play in the US nuclear builds.
- We want to work with you to enact legislation that prevents your investors from profiting at our expense when we follow your rules on PRC tariffs. It's not fair that our companies comply with your industrial restrictions while your financial sector (especially, but not only, your private equity firms) profit by investing in our Chinese competitors.
That's a start. We want this to work. Let's work together to get to a better place on the other side.
observingjapan.substack.com
