- 14 Mar 2002
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According to a study by the independent think-tank Recruit Works Institute published yesterday, Japan will face a shortage of more than 11 million workers by 2040, underscoring the nation's economic challenges as its population ages rapidly. The worker supply is expected to shrink by about 12% in 2040 from 2022, even as labour demand remains steady.
If you think that Japan would contemplate opening the floodgates to immigration, you're wrong:
The labour shortfall will not affect Tokyo but every other corner of Japan:
Source: Japan to Face 11 Million Worker Shortfall by 2040, Study Finds
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has prioritised reversing Japan's declining birthrate for his government. He warns of societal collapse as the number of babies born hits a new low. He has also pledged about ¥1 trillion ($7.6 billion) to training workers for more high-skilled jobs in the next five years. Still, the nation of 126 million is already starting to feel the strain, with the working-age population expected to shrink by 20% from 2020 to 59.8 million by 2040, according to the report. Kishida is already seeking ways to address a severe shortage of truck drivers expected by next year. The study also warns shortfalls will likely become acute in labour-intensive sectors like transportation, construction, and health care due to growing demands from an ageing population.
If you think that Japan would contemplate opening the floodgates to immigration, you're wrong:
Japan's relative decline in global economic standing and a similar ageing crisis worldwide means that boosting immigration is not the most viable solution over the long term, the study led by chief researcher Shoto Furuya said. Earlier research by the Value Management Institute said Japan needs 6.74 million foreign workers by 2040, or nearly four times the number it had in 2020, to achieve an average annual growth of about 1.24%.
The labour shortfall will not affect Tokyo but every other corner of Japan:
Japan's rural-urban divide is likely to get worse over time as well, the study finds, with all of the nation's prefectures except Tokyo facing a labour shortfall by 2040. Kyoto prefecture would lack about 39% of the workers it needs, while the northern island of Hokkaido would see an insufficiency rate of nearly 32%.
Source: Japan to Face 11 Million Worker Shortfall by 2040, Study Finds