Economy IMF calls on Japan not to cut sales tax

[thomas]

The IMF is calling on Japan to keep raising interest rates and to avoid further fiscal loosening, arguing that a cut to the consumption tax would leave the government with less room to respond in a downturn.

The recommendation comes just after PM Takaichi's election win, which has stirred speculation in financial markets about how firmly she will back the central bank's further moves. She has already promised a 2-year suspension of the 8% food consumption tax. In a preliminary policy paper issued Wednesday, the IMF pointed to the Bank of Japan's independence as a factor anchoring inflation expectations. The institution said the bank is rolling back monetary stimulus. It indicated that step-by-step rate increases should continue until the policy rate reaches a neutral setting, and it warned against political pressure on monetary decisions.

The IMF said Japan should avoid reducing the consumption tax as it would "erode fiscal space and add to fiscal risks." Rather, the administration's proposed temporary suspension of the food levy would help contain fiscal costs, Anand said, adding the IMF can better assess the effect on Japan's finances once there is more clarity on how the move will be funded. "Near-term fiscal policy should refrain from further loosening," the IMF said in the statement, calling for a credible medium-term fiscal framework with a "clearly defined fiscal anchor."

IMF urges Japan to keep raising rates, avoid reducing sales tax

The International Monetary Fund urged Japan to keep raising interest rates and avoid loosening fiscal policy further, warning that trimming the consumption tax would erode its capacity to respond to future economic shocks.

www.reuters.com

 

[Lothor]

Is it any of the IMF's business?

 

[thomas]

Is it any of the IMF's business?

Given the Japanese government's tendency to react to overseas criticism, this should serve as a reminder that suspending the food tax is not such a good idea. Any financial windfall for consumers will soon be eaten up by inflation, while public debt will continue to skyrocket.

Takaichi is probably well aware of that. Her reaction to expected criticism: shorten the budget deliberations in the Diet.

Japan PM Takaichi set to speed up submission of consumption tax bills to Diet

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20260217_14/

She could also fake an injury to her other hand and skip deliberations altogether.

Here's what ChatGPT said on the role of the IMF:

The International Monetary Fund was created to monitor global economic stability. Under its Articles of Agreement (Article IV), it conducts regular consultations with member countries, including Japan, and issues policy assessments. These often cover fiscal policy, taxation, debt sustainability and monetary conditions.

Japan is a member state and one of the IMF's largest shareholders. That means the Fund is formally mandated to review Japan's economic policies and publish recommendations. When the IMF comments on suspending a food tax, it is doing so within its surveillance role, particularly given Japan's very high public debt and the global spillover risks of major fiscal shifts.

However, the IMF cannot compel Japan to change policy. Its role is advisory. Governments may accept, modify or ignore its recommendations.

 

[Lothor]

Given the Japanese government's tendency to react to overseas criticism, this should serve as a reminder that suspending the food tax is not such a good idea. Any financial windfall for consumers will soon be eaten up by inflation, while public debt will continue to skyrocket.

Takaichi is probably well aware of that. Her reaction to expected criticism: shorten the budget deliberations in the Diet.

Japan PM Takaichi set to speed up submission of consumption tax bills to Diet

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20260217_14/

She could also fake an injury to her other hand and skip deliberations altogether.

Here's what ChatGPT said on the role of the IMF:

The International Monetary Fund was created to monitor global economic stability. Under its Articles of Agreement (Article IV), it conducts regular consultations with member countries, including Japan, and issues policy assessments. These often cover fiscal policy, taxation, debt sustainability and monetary conditions.

Japan is a member state and one of the IMF's largest shareholders. That means the Fund is formally mandated to review Japan's economic policies and publish recommendations. When the IMF comments on suspending a food tax, it is doing so within its surveillance role, particularly given Japan's very high public debt and the global spillover risks of major fiscal shifts.

However, the IMF cannot compel Japan to change policy. Its role is advisory. Governments may accept, modify or ignore its recommendations.

The IMF's austerity policies have had a catastrophic effect on many African countries, leading to huge cuts in education and welfare spending, and they have a clear dogma: fiscal discipline above everything else, regardless of a country's circumstances.

Fifty Years of Failure: The IMF, Debt and Austerity in Africa

ActionAid’s report ‘Fifty Years of Failure: the IMF, Debt and Austerity in Africa’ is based on new research and powerful personal testimonies from across 10 African countries. It is timed to coincide with the first IMF / World Bank Annual meeting to be held in Africa for 50 years. The report...

actionaid.org

I don't think the organisation has any credibility, which is why I made the comment.

 

[thomas]

I don't deny that the IMF's role has been detrimental to many economies, but I believe they are right to suggest further austerity for the Japanese government. I'm all for supporting those in need, but a blanket tax cut on consumables for two years is a political, not a fiscal measure. The IMF actually suggested targeted, time-limited support for lower-income households (cash transfers, benefit top-ups, food vouchers, etc.).

And it's not just the IMF that's expressed concerns:

Two-thirds of Japanese firms are concerned about the government's fiscal discipline, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans a temporary suspension of sales tax on food and steps up investment to spur growth.

Two-thirds of Japan firms concerned about PM Takaichi's fiscal discipline

Two-thirds of Japanese firms are concerned about the government's fiscal discipline, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans a temporary suspension of sales tax on food and steps up investment to spur growth.

www.reuters.com

 

[thomas]

On the subject of targeted support, a German friend of mine volunteers at a food bank in Hachioji every week. I hadn't even realised there were food banks in Tokyo! He says they run out of stock in less than an hour, and most of the people coming in are retirees relying on it. Many feel ashamed to be there. Provisions are provided by the municipality and local supermarkets.