Politics PM Ishiba’s Japan: pragmatism and reform

Public support will be crucial for Japan's incoming PM Ishiba, who has kept his distance from the LDP mainstream and still has a weak internal party base:

The unexpected election of Shigeru Ishiba as the new leader of the LDP could signal a departure from the "Abe-style" politics that had dominated since the party regained power in 2012. Ishiba, who has kept his distance from the LDP's mainstream and lacks a robust internal base, will need public support to succeed. He has committed to steering the party grappling with a slush fund scandal toward what he described as "politics from the public's perspective." Addressing lawmakers after his election, Ishiba, 67, emphasized the need for the LDP to foster open and vigorous debate while remaining fair, just, and humble. He recalled how the party regained power in 2012 through unity and expressed his desire to see the LDP return to that spirit.





Some significant changes seem to be in the pipeline:



A self-declared otaku, it's good to see that he doesn't take himself too seriously.

While Ishiba is still working on constituting the new Cabinet, some names have already been picked, all of them LDP veterans: former Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu as finance minister, Nakatani Gen as defence minister, former defence minister Iwaya Takeshi as foreign minister, the current finance minister Akazawa Ryosei as minister of economic revitalization. Hayashi Yoshimasa will remain chief cabinet secretary, a key post that includes the role of top government spokesperson. Koizumi Shinjiro will be named as chair of the LDP Election Strategy Committee, while former PM Suga will be the new vice president of the LDP.

Ishiba's primary LDP opponent, Takaichi Sanae, a fanatic Abe disciple, firmly declined any role in Ishiba's Cabinet.

Ishiba opts for continuity in cabinet picks; eyes snap election


Ishiba is expected to be formally named prime minister at an extraordinary Diet session on 1 October. The new Cabinet is expected to be formed on the same day. It was later reported that Ishiba would dissolve the lower house of parliament on 9 October, with an election set for 27 October.



A JT commentary by a former special adviser to Abe's Cabinet reveals what the members of the former Abe faction might be hoping for:

For the 67-year-old Ishiba, long a leading rival of the late Abe Shinzo, ascending to the post is the realization of a long-held dream. But Ishiba's political star will likely soon fall — perhaps rapidly. There are several reasons for this. For starters, Ishiba's proposal of an "Asian NATO" is utterly unrealistic and will not withstand debate in the Diet. While Ishiba portrays himself as a security expert, he seems to lack some fundamental perspective. When this flaw becomes apparent, public support will melt away. [...] Ishiba's political prospects are also burdened by his call for tax increases. In his view, there is room to raise both personal and corporate income taxes, and he has shown enthusiasm for taxing capital gains as well. Does he genuinely believe that he can win an election on a platform of tax hikes? [...] Japan can ill-afford a return to the era of short-lived premierships that preceded Abe's tenure. Unfortunately, Ishiba's policy positions and questionable management skills do not bode well. Let us hope that he can learn quickly and mature.

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And while not even sworn in, the stocks have begun tumbling:

I missed a week of updates on PM Ishiba's new Cabinet.

Below's the lineup for the new cabinet. Ishiba unveiled his Cabinet the same day as his election as prime minister by parliament, having announced senior party appointments a day earlier. Ishiba selected those largely untainted by a party political funds scandal that heavily damaged public trust in the LDP.



Rumours had it that the official commemorative photo of the new Japanese Cabinet had been doctored to enhance its appearance before being posted on the prime minister's office website. Someone on X called it "the sloppy cabinet".



The new PM had to learn the hard way that from now on, he will have to mince his words:



Under his self-acclaimed status as a "security expert," he once again promoted his idea of creating an Asian NATO, a notion the new Japanese defence minister and the Indian foreign minister promptly rejected. Yes, it's not been a good start.


On Friday, Ishiba delivered his first policy speech. He clearly was careful not to repeat the blunders committed at the beginning of the week. However, reactions to his policy outline were mixed and muted, and some called his speech "devoid of content."





Former PM Abe still casts his shadow over Japanese politics:

What has also become evident is that the LDP is now pretty much split into two factions: the former members of Abeha, Abe's supporters and faction members associated with the slush fund scandal, the Unification Church scandal, the Sakura party scandal, and the Moritomo scandal, on one side, and those who opposed Abe and consorts on the other. This rift will pose immense hurdles for the new government to work effectively.

Yesterday, Ishiba stated that the LDP would not officially endorse lawmakers involved in the party's political funds scandal in the upcoming general election if they are judged to have failed to explain their involvement fully.

"This is more hideous than a group picture of some kind of a seniors' club during a trip to a hot spring. It's utterly embarrassing."

The edited Cabinet picture made it into the international news.



One has to agree that those trousers fit awfully.

For those among you wondering why PM Ishiba has remained quiet on "controversial issues" such as dual surnames for married couples, Tobias Harris has the answer: the LDP dinosaurs are increasing their pressure on the PM.

The LDP's conservatives are pressuring the Ishiba government on three fronts. First, they are calling for the party to oppose legislation being prepared by the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and other parties for the current Diet session that will revise the civil code to allow spouses to have separate surnames. Second, LDP conservatives have been waging an increasingly fervent campaign against Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi and, by extension, the Ishiba government's China policy more broadly. Finally, and related to their objections to Ishiba's China policy, they have raised doubts about Prime Minister Ishiba's ability to handle diplomacy with US President Donald Trump, doubts that also extend to Iwaya.

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Harris doesn't believe that the conservatives could easily topple Ishida, but they could unleash a lot of political turmoil:


While conservatives are actively working to challenge Ishiba on multiple fronts, this does not guarantee their success in removing him or ensuring that one of their preferred candidates—such as Takaichi or Kobayashi—will take his place. Ousting an LDP leader is arduous, requiring a majority vote from LDP lawmakers in both houses and approval from representatives of the forty-seven prefectural chapters for an early leadership election. Moreover, conservatives may not even rally behind Takaichi, as some could favour Kobayashi or more centrist figures like former LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu, whose newly formed study group drew sixty attendees, including Hagiuda Kōichi, or Finance Minister Katō Katsunobu, a close Abe ally whose lower public profile would be less of a disadvantage in an emergency leadership contest where grassroots supporters have no say. Nonetheless, the LDP's right wing has demonstrated the capability and growing willingness to undermine the prime minister by amplifying his missteps and obstructing his policy agenda, complicatingIshiba's attempts to maintain his grip on power.

Read it all here:

"Trump wooing" was PM Ishiba's strategy when he met the U.S. president last Friday:

Ishiba largely achieved his goal, as both leaders committed to fostering a "new golden age" in U.S.-Japan relations. However, the Japanese prime minister also faced intense pressure from Trump to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan. While Ishiba commended Trump and emphasized that Japan was the largest investor in the United States—a commitment he vowed to strengthen through increased spending—the president remained firm on the need for a more balanced trade relationship. When asked whether tariffs could be imposed if progress was not made, Trump responded with a pointed "yes."



Tobias Harris has all the details:

Indeed, to a considerable extent, Ishiba, despite his longstanding rivalry with the late Abe Shinzō (earning him the right wing's lasting enmity), benefited from enduring goodwill from Abe's personal relationship with Trump. Trump repeatedly spoke of the late prime minister, saying that Abe "thought the world of" Ishiba and generally spoke in friendly tones about Japan and its friendship with the United States. Ishiba got a personal endorsement from Trump, who referred to him as "very strong" ("I wish he was a little weaker," he said), which will help dispel some of the doubts – many of them voiced by the right-wing – that he is not up to managing the US president or the bilateral relationship more broadly.

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Ishiba was well-prepared.

The dominant theme was how Ishiba can explain Japan's contributions to the United States to Trump in an easy-to-understand manner, sources said. "We must present our arguments as simply as possible," one participant said. Another said, "We must communicate how vital ties with Japan are to national security." A document prepared for the meeting listed benefits from trade with Japan, as well as Japan's response to a potential U.S. request to further boost defense spending, the sources said.

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Japan's gift for Trump: a golden samurai helmet.

The samurai helmet, measuring 57 centimetres wide, 81 cm high, and 48 cm deep, is priced at 168,000 yen ($1,100), according to its manufacturer, Ningyouno Hanafusa Co., based in Tottori. Tomoya Hanafusa, the company's president, said the firm received an order for a golden samurai helmet in November last year from the Japanese Foreign Ministry and was only told that the item would be given to a foreign VIP as a gift. Hanafusa, who found out only a few days ago that the gift was for Trump, said he felt "extremely grateful and happy" that the present came from a company based in the prime minister's native prefecture of Tottori.

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Utterly unnecessary: PM Ishiba faces a major backlash after giving out gift vouchers to rookie party lawmakers.


On Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faced criticism for distributing gift vouchers worth 100,000 yen ($676) each to rookie lower house members of the scandal-plagued ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Opposition leaders questioned the legality of the vouchers, handed out ahead of a March 3 dinner at his official residence, increasing pressure on Ishiba to provide a full explanation. Some even called for his resignation. Ishiba admitted he had misread public sentiment and apologised for the controversy but insisted the personally funded vouchers were gestures of appreciation rather than political donations for the families of newly elected lawmakers.

The revelation deals a blow to Ishiba, who became LDP chief and therefore prime minister about five months ago with a pledge to restore public confidence in politics damaged by a series of money scandals affecting his party. It also came at a crucial time for the minority government, as parliamentary deliberations continue on a draft budget plan for the new fiscal year starting April 1. Under grilling by opposition lawmakers in parliament, he said he had distributed vouchers around 10 times before. [...] All 15 lower house members who attended the meeting with Ishiba were elected in the 27 October election that stripped the ruling coalition of their majority control of the powerful chamber. Another national election, for the upper house, or the House of Councillors, is slated for this summer.

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According to today's Yomiuri Shinbun, the approval rating of the cabinet has dropped 8 points to 31 points, with the gift vouchers cited as the reason.

With politics in many countries increasingly becoming a choice between a moderate sane party and far-right sociopaths, it's really annoying when the sane party shoot themselves in the foot like this. The UK Labour Party similarly lost a lot of goodwill because its cabinet accepted free stuff, badly misreading the mood of the country with many people financially struggling.

Lothor said:

With politics in many countries increasingly becoming a choice between a moderate sane party and far-right sociopaths, it's really annoying when the sane party shoot themselves in the foot like this.

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It is utterly incomprehensible how a seasoned politician could commit such a blunder after all the corruption scandals his party has been through. It shows how detached most politicians are, even those who seemed reasonable and decent.

Unsurprisingly, LDP politicians' "gift-giving" habits go back long and seem to involve several former PMs.

The office of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida distributed gift vouchers worth 100,000 yen ($670) each to parliamentary vice ministers during a 2022 meal gathering with the then-premier, ruling party sources said Wednesday, fueling speculation that gift-giving is a common practice among lawmakers in power. The revelation comes as Kishida's successor, incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, faces scrutiny over his own distribution of vouchers worth 100,000 yen each as tokens of "appreciation" to new lower house members of the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been reeling from a political fundraising scandal.

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