Environment Meteorologists forecast 28 typhoons for Japan in 2026

Japan could see a more active typhoon season than usual in 2026, with private weather forecaster Weathernews predicting that around 28 typhoons will form during the year. That would be above the long-term average of 25.1 storms. The company also warned that about 14 typhoons could approach Japan, raising the risk of transport disruptions and other weather-related damage across the country.


The forecast comes shortly after Typhoon Jangmi, or Typhoon No. 6, brought heavy rain and transport disruption to parts of Japan in early June. By the beginning of June, six typhoons had already formed this year. Normally, the figure is closer to three or four by this point in the season, suggesting activity is already running ahead of average. Weathernews said tropical cyclone activity was expected to remain active through the rest of the year, potentially pushing the final number of storms to around 28 by the end of 2026.

Meteorologists say several large-scale climate patterns are contributing to the forecast. A developing La Niña pattern is expected to emerge later this year, while conditions in the Indian Ocean are also likely to favour enhanced storm formation. These patterns are expected to strengthen westerly winds near the Philippines, where they will interact with easterly trade winds and promote vigorous thunderstorm activity over the waters east of the Philippines, a primary breeding ground for typhoons affecting East Asia. Sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain above average through autumn. Warmer ocean waters provide additional moisture and energy for tropical systems, increasing the likelihood that storms will both form and intensify.

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A developing La Niña pattern is expected to emerge later this year,...

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Isn't it an El Niño pattern that's being predicted? And a relatively strong one, at that?