Health Japan to face shortage of gastrointestinal surgeons by 2040

The shortage of doctors and medical staff affects all medical fields across the board. Younger physicians avoid the more challenging fields, discouraged by the long working hours and other demanding conditions:

Japan is bracing for a serious challenge in cancer treatment, with projections pointing to a shortfall of around 5,000 gastrointestinal surgeons by 2040, according to a new industry report. The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, in findings submitted to the health ministry, warned that the workforce in this field could shrink by 40% over the next 15 years, falling from the current 15,200 surgeons to about 9,200. At the same time, demand is expected to rise, with roughly 14,400 specialists needed nationwide.

Gastrointestinal surgery, which treats cancers of the stomach, colon and other parts of the digestive system, is becoming harder to staff as younger doctors turn away from the discipline. Many are deterred by its notoriously long hours and harsh working conditions, even as demographic shifts bring new patterns of cancer cases. Health officials are now considering ways to consolidate cancer care resources, including staff, facilities and equipment, to adapt to the anticipated shortage.

By 2040 the number of cancer patients will increase in 16 urban prefectures but decline in 31 others, according to health ministry projections. However, among patients aged 85 and older, the number is expected to rise in nearly all regions, except for a few remote rural areas. These demographic shifts are expected to reshape demand for the three pillars of cancer treatment by 2040. The need for surgery is projected to decline by 5 percent. But radiation therapy and drug therapy, both commonly used for older patients, are anticipated to rise by 24 percent and 15 percent, respectively. There is some good news. The panel's report indicates no shortfall in radiation therapy doctors through 2040. However, it may be financially unsustainable to provide expensive equipment in areas facing population decline and fewer patients. As for drug therapy, there are no concrete estimates of a potential surplus or shortage of physicians. Unlike surgery, drug therapy requires ongoing, scheduled treatments. The report recommends pursuing "equitable access through measures such as telemedicine," particularly in regions with limited resources.

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I suppose if I end up needing it at that time I could try Thailand or something. Japanese themselves could end up having to do that if the shortage is not addressed depending on the value of the yen at the time (could they afford it, right now Thailand is cheap in 2040 not sure).

There are many potential GI surgeons in the UK who can't get on a surgical training rotation here in the UK. The difficult language (Japanese) could be a barrier, though.

salyavin said:

I suppose if I end up needing it at that time I could try Thailand or something. Japanese themselves could end up having to do that if the shortage is not addressed depending on the value of the yen at the time (could they afford it, right now Thailand is cheap in 2040 not sure).

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Bangkok has excellent medical facilities and superb surgeons….at a price.

Yea but how does the price compare to the US. i have heard good things about the quality too.