Defence Adviser to Takaichi suggests nuclear armament for Japan

An adviser on security matters to PM Takaichi argued that Japan should consider nuclear armament, citing the increasingly severe regional security environment and doubts about the reliability of the United States' nuclear deterrence. The senior official at the Prime Minister's Office made clear that the view was a personal one and, on 18 December, indicated that Japan should at least begin debating the issue. The reasoning was said to rest on China's expanding nuclear capabilities, the threat posed by Russia's nuclear arsenal, and North Korea's continued development of missiles and nuclear weapons.

However, the official said acquiring nuclear weapons would be difficult due to Japan's relationship with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, which recognizes only five nuclear powers--the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China. The official also noted that significant political will would be needed to review Japan's three non-nuclear principles. No discussions on nuclear weapons are currently underway within the Takaichi administration, the official said, declining to comment on a potential timeline.

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The government today tried to steady the situation by restating Japan's long-held commitment to its non-nuclear principles. The remarks drew criticism from across the political spectrum, with lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition camps arguing that they departed too sharply from established policy and calling for the official's replacement.


If I remember correctly, hypothetically and technically speaking, Japan could produce nuclear weapons in less than a year, and it could deploy fully operational weapon systems within 3-5 years.

The irony: yesterday, North Korea stated Japan's ambition for nuclear weapons should be "thoroughly curbed."

While I do not disagree, the hypocrisy is insurmountable.

Japan is showing the intention to possess nuclear weapons explicitly by saying it needs to review the three non-nuclear principles, KCNA said, citing a commentary of North Korea's foreign-policy official. Japan began making such comments actively as soon as the United States approved South Korea's request to build a nuclear submarine, the media said.

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Paywall alert:

Chinese nuclear specialists believe Japan could develop nuclear weapons within three years, echoing warnings made by the late US statesman Henry Kissinger. In a 2023 interview with The Economist, Kissinger said Japan was moving toward nuclear armament and could become a nuclear power within five years. Chinese analysts argue that Japan already has the technical ability and may also have the political motivation to do so, especially as regional security conditions change. Their view reflects Kissinger's concern that Japan could seek a more assertive military role if the opportunity arises.

thomas said:

Chinese nuclear specialists believe Japan could develop nuclear weapons within three years, echoing warnings made by the late US statesman Henry Kissinger. In a 2023 interview with The Economist, Kissinger said Japan was moving toward nuclear armament and could become a nuclear power within five years. Chinese analysts argue that Japan already has the technical ability and may also have the political motivation to do so, especially as regional security conditions change. Their view reflects Kissinger's concern that Japan could seek a more assertive military role if the opportunity arises.

Chinese nuclear experts believe Japan could build nukes in less than 3 years

Late US statesman Henry Kissinger’s dire warning about Tokyo aiming to become a nuclear power by 2028 is being re-examined by Beijing.

www.scmp.com

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The most surprising thing for me here is that Kissinger was still alive in 2023. Surely he's burning in hell by now.

Would 'tactical nuclear weapons' be a more palatable option?

This is an interesting article by the respected BBC journalist (if that isn't an oxymoron) John Simpson. The far Eastern issur]e are discussed later in the article.

Ukigumo said:

This is an interesting article by the respected BBC journalist (if that isn't an oxymoron) John Simpson. The far Eastern issur]e are discussed later in the article.

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This doesn't bode well for 2026. If the author is right in his interpretation of WWIII as a "collection of diplomatic and military manoeuvres" and a flourishing of autocracies, it might already have begun.

thomas said:

This doesn't bode well for 2026. If the author is right in his interpretation of WWIII as a "collection of diplomatic and military manoeuvres" and a flourishing of autocracies, it might already have started.

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This seems to be the consensus; it's already begun.

Given the collapse of the US defense umbrella, I think this is the logical outcome. The orange man's actions and words indicate he (and the US) won't defend/go to bat for taiwan, nor korea, nor japan. He would only do it if there was some quid pro quo involved--and he'd be upping the cost for that all that time.
The US rhetoric about defending free nations/democracy is gone. Those previously under that supposed defense umbrella are now on their own.
After a few years of weapons development, korea and japan might be ready to deal with things on their own, without an unreliable 'partner'.

Japan, or south korea, don't have anyplace to test a weapon. So computer simulations and the like would be the substitute. China might say "you haven't tested them, so are you sure?", to which the reply would be, "try me."

Separately, a hot war in taiwan that destroyed chip-making factories/infrastructure would make the 2020 covid supply chain issues look like a walk in the park. Imagine no new cell phones or cars for the next 5-8 years, or more.

johnnyG said:

Given the collapse of the US defense umbrella, I think this is the logical outcome. The orange man's actions and words indicate he (and the US) won't defend/go to bat for taiwan, nor korea, nor japan. He would only do it if there was some quid pro quo involved--and he'd be upping the cost for that all that time.

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Yes he's very transactional in everything he does. I bet he only wipes his arse if it agrees to let him sit on it

johnnyG said:

The US rhetoric about defending free nations/democracy is gone. Those previously under that supposed defense umbrella are now on their own.
After a few years of weapons development, korea and japan might be ready to deal with things on their own, without an unreliable 'partner'.

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I wonder if a North Atlantic/AsiaTreaty Organisation (NAATO) would be worth considering when Trump officially pulls out of NATO?

johnnyG said:

Japan, or south korea, don't have anyplace to test a weapon. So computer simulations and the like would be the substitute. China might say "you haven't tested them, so are you sure?", to which the reply would be, "try me."

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I'm a big fan of 'posturing' and the 'puffing out of chests' because it tends to placate with acceptably low level loss of face (that's very important in Asian countries). In the West we 'rattle our sabres'

johnnyG said:

Imagine no new cell phones or cars for the next 5-8 years, or more.

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Am I the only person who thinks that sounds positive

Uh, ...if he isn't going to help defend UK/europe, he isn't going to help defend japan/korea/taiwan.

Which is the thinking that leads to the headline for this thread.