I could say its as American as cowboys and the Fourth of July....but I won't. I will just say that Japan is hardly so special in that department. There is good reason to have doubts in just about anybody's official numbers, for reasons of deception, and not just margin of error etc.
Abe and his cronies do generally fumble and bumble as you say, but they have plenty of highly intelligent people under them educated at the finest university in the land (ahem!) who are unquestioningly obedient, prepared to look the other way when necessary, and are working in an atmosphere of having to second-guess their masters' wishes (sontaku).
Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not denying Japan has seen more than its fair share of cover-ups or conspiracies, or that Abe and co. aren't capable of and willing to fudge a few numbers here or there.
I just think some of the more exaggerated claims of literally thousands or tens of thousands of deaths being covered up, as cited by the more extreme conspiracy theorists out there are a bit beyond the realm of feasibility.
That said, given the relatively steady numbers over the last few days as the effects of the state of emergency are reflected, I'm hearing somewhat less sensationalism and panicking, which is something of a relief. Again, I'm under no delusions here, just hoping against hope that the worst of it is not yet to come.
Combining the relatively good behaviour and common sense of Japanese people, the weakness of the emergency measures, and the low levels of testing, it's likely that we are going to end up with a protracted problem even if the number of deaths ends up being relatively low. We've already seen increased anger and frustration among people with low income, people demanding their freedom, and people just with cabin fever in other countries. Although Japan is unlikely to see the sort of protests you get in the USA, Japanese people will not be immune to these pressures and may quietly flout the rules - opening bars and socialising - which will add to the problem. I've certainly got cabin fever, and last night while chatting to my friend in a park in Nerima at a safe distance, we agreed we felt like bored teenagers stuck in a small town!
I think Japan takes it to a new level though. A lack of litigation, a very poor example set by the people at the top, a culture that discourages questioning and openness, a certain credulousness of many of the population, a media that quote statistics as if they are a gospel, and a lack of data interpretation skills taught in school all contribute to the problem. Regarding the last point, I used to teach maths in a college in Britain. The east Asian students were generally light years ahead of us laggardly Brits in algebra but were floored by the simplest questions on whether data was valid.
I understand why you might say that but for me, Japan is just different. I see more benign intentions with the Japanese whereas with my government/people its more about power and money and frankly, reveling in evil acts for the fun of it.
Combining the relatively good behaviour and common sense of Japanese people, the weakness of the emergency measures, and the low levels of testing, it's likely that we are going to end up with a protracted problem even if the number of deaths ends up being relatively low. We've already seen increased anger and frustration among people with low income, people demanding their freedom, and people just with cabin fever in other countries. Although Japan is unlikely to see the sort of protests you get in the USA, Japanese people will not be immune to these pressures and may quietly flout the rules - opening bars and socialising - which will add to the problem. I've certainly got cabin fever, and last night while chatting to my friend in a park in Nerima at a safe distance, we agreed we felt like bored teenagers stuck in a small town!
If there is a protracted problem in Japan it will be from without. Specifically Covid-19 may resurge this fall but there was literally nothing to be done about that. NOTHING.....save maybe complete house arrest for everyone....every single person...and just starving to death. Spring is here. Covid 19 is either going to vanish or take a vacation until autumn. Its simple.
Throwing everything down the drain so that the old and infirm can get just a few more months or years of life will do our children a great disservice. That said, I could get behind school shutdowns as a means of children to have the time and freedom to find their way in life and learn new things but keeping them in the house is a disservice as well. (school as it is a disservice anyway!)
I think the only thing you need to worry about is if the economy can recover....unless you are among the old and infirm...in which case you should isolate yourself.
We got 3 cremations centers here all within a bike ride of 10 minutes. Each one today had road guards (traffic controllers) and parking lots were not so full, but there seems to be a lot more cremations for a Wednesday. I think with the closure of all Pacinko parlors now, the death rate due to alcoholism and old age boredom will be taking its toll very soon. Here is today's picture of the Parchinko Parlor. It just open a year ago too.
Daily new cases from Worldometers. I believe Japan just expanded testing so that would account for the (apparent) rise in cases over the last couple days. Not sure where I read that they expanded testing and not completely certain about it either.
April 15 741
April 16 605
April 17 556
April 18 509
April 19 501
April 20 338
April 21 377
April 22 438
Edit: I found it. Such small rises amid expanded testing is actually a good sign....or would be assuming its already started. This article is very short on specifics which is probably why my memory seemed vague. Its the darn article that's vague! As coronavirus infections mount, Japan at last expands testing
Daily new cases from Worldometers. I believe Japan just expanded testing so that would account for the (apparent) rise in cases over the last couple days. Not sure where I read that they expanded testing and not completely certain about it either.
April 15 741
April 16 605
April 17 556
April 18 509
April 19 501
April 20 338
April 21 377
April 22 438
Edit: I found it. Such small rises amid expanded testing is actually a good sign....or would be assuming its already started. This article is very short on specifics which is probably why my memory seemed vague. Its the darn article that's vague! As coronavirus infections mount, Japan at last expands testing
The TV programs I've watched recently are also making a concerted effort to publicise test centres and social distancing and are at last reporting efforts by shops to minimise infection by limiting the number in the shop at any one time (I've not yet been to a shop that does this though). They're also doing plenty of shaming (or threatening to shame) pachinko parlours remaining open and other people not complying, and not just the young. Things seem to be moving in the right direction.
I STRONGLY disagree that shaming or threatening to shame those not following most of the "suggestions" you named is moving in the right direction. Once again I will say that we know who is in the gravest danger, its a particular subset of the population and its THEM that needs to isolate themselves, NOT everybody else. Again, throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Why ever not? It's the best weapon the Japanese have in the absence of rigid lockdown laws, and seems to keep most people behaving and crime levels low.
musicisgood - Most of them are now, and in fact I first saw this measure in a 7-11, so kudos to them for being proactive about their employees' safety. My managers hid in their rooms and said nothing as the crisis developed and I had to raise the issue, which to me is a shocking dereliction of duty. If I ever come across in my posts as scathing about elderly Japanese people nominally in charge, you know why!
Why ever not? It's the best weapon the Japanese have in the absence of rigid lockdown laws, and seems to keep most people behaving and crime levels low.
The fact you ask indicates you are not paying attention to what I have been saying. But I will add to the list....this is going to push us closer to going cashless and the fascism/feudalism/ authoritarianism that will come with it. The audio is horrible but its worth sussing it out.
And the bit about keeping crime levels low....what the actual...?
Wait till the economic costs truly kick in. Its going to be a fun summer. Maybe not just fun for stealing and fraud but even more stabby than usual.
The fact you ask indicates you are not paying attention to what I have been saying. But I will add to the list....this is going to push us closer to going cashless and the fascism/feudalism/ authoritarianism that will come with it. The audio is horrible but its worth sussing it out.
And the bit about keeping crime levels low....what the actual...?
Wait till the economic costs truly kick in. Its going to be a fun summer. Maybe not just fun for stealing and fraud but even more stabby than usual.
Should I be paying attention to what you say? Your incredible repeated assertion that only the vulnerable should be isolating, which isn't even physically possible considering that many of them rely on able-bodied carers, dissolves me of the responsibility to pay you the attention that you so obviously crave.
Update: Part 2 April 23, 2020 Thursday Tokyo time: evening
Evening. Well, I mention earlier that I'd try to make my updates a bit more international and perhaps more on "what's happening in your front yard" type of post. The reason is because: Chinese updates are rare and Japanese updates are beginning not to be of much of interest these days to what is happening to the outside world. Actually, the events in Japan (somewhat untruthful as far as reporting cases and deaths of the virus ) still hold a lot of weight. I say that because ,well, for those that follow the financial post, I posted about investing in UBE KOSAN in Ube, Yamaguchi Pref a while back. That was another one of MIM's Street Talk that panned out as of yesterday. So for you that buy stocks, check them out. I'll post the link here .
www3.nhk.or.jp...
Update:
1. Nurses engaged in the fight against coronavirus in the United States demonstrated outside the White House to remember the tens of thousands of health workers infected while on duty due to the lack of personal protective equipment in American hospitals. The nurses also took sides against the restart of the country and the cancellation of the restrictive measures invoked by several protests in the United States.
2. The Spanish Parliament approved the government's request for the extension of the lockdown to limit coronavirus infections until 9 May. The request of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez passed with 269 votes in favor, 60 against and 16 abstentions.
3. More than 3,500 uniformed service members have tested positive to date. Two have died — a relatively low number officials attribute to the overall youth and fitness of the force.
4. YOKOTA AIR BASE, Japan — The city of Fussa reported its first case of coronavirus Wednesday, leaving a neighboring U.S. military base one of the last holdouts in Tokyo free of the pandemic.
5. As of Wednesday, Japan had reported 11,496 coronavirus infections, with 378 new confirmed cases and 277 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.
Tokyo, epicenter of the pandemic in Japan, reported 3,439 confirmed cases and 81 deaths the same day, according to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. It also reported nearly 2,500 people hospitalized with the disease, all but 62 of them with mild or moderate symptoms.
6. The Navy has been the hardest hit of the military services by the coronavirus with 997 cases now. In total, 1,298 sailors have been infected by the virus.
7. A Smithfield Foods pork processing plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, was visited by representatives from its Chinese Communist Party-tied parent company one month before the first COVID-19 case was confirmed at the facility, according to three employees.
8. Sick: Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman, on April 23, repeatedly called for the city's businesses to reopen while refusing to provide any social distancing guidelines on how to do so safely. "Right now, we're in a crisis health-wise, and so for a restaurant to be open or a small boutique to be open, they better figure it out. That's their job. That's not the mayor's job."
9. This is good news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Wednesday barring immigration into the United States for 60 days.
"In order to protect our great American workers, I've just signed an executive order temporarily suspending immigration into the United States," Trump said. "This will ensure than unemployed Americans of all backgrounds will be first in line for jobs as our economy reopens."
10. The questions about what would happen should Kim die or be incapacitated were sparked by a CNN report that the North Korean despot was in "grave danger" following a surgery. However, the Yonhap News Agency, a South Korean-government funded organization, later tweeted out that there were "no unusual signs" of Kim's health.
11. Has CNN picked this up: Stopping the flow of illegals into America: SAN DIEGO — The Trump administration has been quietly adding military surveillance cameras at the U.S.-Mexico border in response to the coronavirus pandemic, though fewer people appear to be crossing illegally. It's the latest move as operations at the U.S.-Mexico border have become increasingly militarized and secretive.
12. As the new coronavirus that has killed more than 184,000 people worldwide continues to spread, Russia has stepped up its measures to slow the pandemic's spread within its borders.
There have been 62,773 cases of coronavirus infections reported in Russia so far and 555 deaths.
13. According to a person in Tokyo, it was confirmed on April 23rd that 134 new people were infected with the new coronavirus in Tokyo. Now the total number of people confirmed to be infected in Tokyo is 3,573.
14. According to a summary by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus was 2,628,801 worldwide as of 3:00 pm on the 23rd of Japan time.
By country,
▽ America has the highest number of 842,629 people,
▽ Spain has 208,389 people,
▽ Italy has 187,327 people, and so on.
In addition, the number of people who died was 183,441, and by country
, the largest number was ▽ America (46,784), followed by
▽ Italy (25,085),
▽ Spain ( 21,717) ,
▽ France (21,340),
▽ The UK has 18,100 people.
This evenings update:
I want to put this first and I'm going to use all capital letters. The reason why, I want you to hold your breath and say what. Remember I was telling you members the number of cases are not true... Well, it was part of MIM's street talk, but to tell you why without proof, which I didn't have till now, well.. to be honest with you all , confidence in my reporting should say it all. This is it.
THE CASES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED OF INFECTIONS ARE OF GOVT.HEALTH INSTITUTIONS. THEY DO NOT INCLUDE THE PRIVATE HEALTH MEDICAL SECTOR, SUCH AS PRIVATE TESTING AND PRIVATE CLINICS. YEP, YOU READ IT RIGHT. NOW YOU ALL KNOW THE TRUTH, THE NUMBERS ARE /WERE LOW AND NOT TRUE. SICK
PREGNANT WOMAN ARE BEING TURN AWAY FROM HAVING BIRTH AT HOSPITALS BECAUSE THEY DON'T LIVE IN THE AREA AND MIGHT BE VIRUS POSITIVE (NO TEST, JUST TURNED AWAY)
For those of you that have been following me, I mentioned 2 things often. 1. Please do not come to Japan and 2. Japan is a lot like China in many ways
Update:
An infection was newly announced on the 23rd on 15 people in Ishikawa Prefecture and on 14 crew members of a ship anchored at Nagasaki Port for repairs. The number of people confirmed to be infected in Japan is 12,023 including the quarantine at airports. In addition, there are 712 passengers and crew members on the cruise ship, for a combined total of 12,735. In addition, the number of people who died in Japan is 299 and the number of passengers on a cruise ship is 13, making a total of 312 people.
Among those who have been confirmed to be infected in Japan:
▽ Tokyo: 3439
▽ Osaka: 1380
▽ Kanagawa: 836
▽ Chiba: 746
▽ Saitama: 726
▽ Fukuoka: 563
▽ Hyogo 560 people
▽ Hokkaido 495 people
▽ Aichi prefecture 449 people
▽ Kyoto prefecture 275 people
▽ Ishikawa prefecture 214 people
▽ Ibaraki prefecture 151 people
▽ Gifu prefecture 147 people
▽ Hiroshima prefecture 142 people
▽ Toyama prefecture 141 people
▽ Gunma prefecture 134 people
▽ Okinawa prefecture 130 people
▽ Fukui prefecture 119 people
▽ Shiga prefecture 88 people
▽ Miyagi
continue part 2
▽ Miyagi prefecture 84 people
▽ Nara prefecture 75 people
▽ Kochi prefecture 70 people
▽ Yamagata prefecture, Fukushima prefecture , Nagasaki Prefectures 65 people
▽ Niigata prefecture 61 people
▽ Oita prefecture 60 people
▽ Nagano prefecture 59 people
▽ Shizuoka prefecture 57 people
▽ Tochigi prefecture 52 people
▽ Yamanashi prefecture 51 people
▽ Wakayama prefecture 49 people
▽ Ehime prefecture 47 people
▽ Mie prefecture , Kumamoto prefecture 43 people
▽ Yamaguchi prefecture 31 people
▽ Kagawa prefecture 28 people
▽ Aomori prefecture 22 people
▽ Okayama prefecture, Saga prefecture 19 people
▽ Miyazaki prefecture 17 people
▽ 16 people in Akita and Shimane ▽
10 people in Kagoshima ▽
5 people in Tokushima
▽ 3 people in Tottori prefecture
In addition, there
are a total of 142 people, including personnel from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, quarantine officers, and people confirmed by airport quarantine, and
14 people from China returning from China by charter aircraft.
According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, by the 22nd, the number of seriously
injured people was 241 such as those infected in Japan, and the total number
of passengers on cruise ships was four, totaling 245.
On the other hand, the number of people who were discharged from the hospital due to symptom improvement by the 22nd was:
▽ 1424 people were infected in Japan
isn't even physically possible considering that many of them rely on able-bodied carers, dissolves me of the responsibility to pay you the attention that you so obviously crave.
The incredible density of that claim is astounding. By that measure, what you claim needs to be done is also impossible, as food services are still operating and health care professionals still working and people still going shopping etc.
I already went over how the old and infirm could isolate themselves. Far better for people to be doing their shopping for them rather than they do their own shopping. Reduction of vectors is key, because what is left can be washed/sterilized.
Anyway, today I saw two old guys without masks walk right up to each other. They appeared to be friends who met randomly on the street. Maybe if things were done my way, those fools would smarten up? I think closing schools and a bunch of companies just makes some of these people confused and they don't realize THEY are the ones at risk, not the kids and young adults.
I already went over how the old and infirm could isolate themselves. Far better for people to be doing their shopping for them rather than they do their own shopping. Reduction of vectors is key, because what is left can be washed/sterilized.
You've failed to show how this would solve the problem especially in a place like Japan where the demographic skews towards the elderly. Since it seems COVID-19 will be here for a while, I think the immediate goal is to keep the load on the health care system to a manageable level. Younger people are not dying in great numbers but they are still getting sick and getting hospitalized. My cousin -- who is not "young" as he's in his 50s -- occupied an ICU bed for two weeks and a ventilator for one week.
Here are the latest numbers from my community. "Cases" don't necessarily mean hospitalizations but it should be a similar curve since we were mainly testing the very ill until recently.
What to do about the economy and the balance between public health and economic health are certainly valid discussions to have but your dogmatic insistence that isolating the aged and infirm (and spring coming) will take care of the problem really doesn't add much to the discussion.
THE CASES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED OF INFECTIONS ARE OF GOVT.HEALTH INSTITUTIONS. THEY DO NOT INCLUDE THE PRIVATE HEALTH MEDICAL SECTOR, SUCH AS PRIVATE TESTING AND PRIVATE CLINICS. YEP, YOU READ IT RIGHT. NOW YOU ALL KNOW THE TRUTH, THE NUMBERS ARE /WERE LOW AND NOT TRUE. SICK
Pump the brakes, brother. There is virtually no private testing in Japan because the country has mandated which institutions may perform the PCR tests. You can't walk into your neighborhood clinic and get a PCR test. This is a big part of the whole national dialogue right now. The places that give the tests have super strict criteria for performing the tests, and finding a place that will accept you (even after days of a fever) is apparently very difficult. Its not as if there is a whole different set of data from the private sector that everyone is ignoring. Its more like there is a presumed mountain of cases that don't get officially classified as covid19 because the patients weren't able to get the proper test.
This is what we have been speculating about in the past few days. The official number of cases is 13,000+, but the real number is...what? 24k? 48k?
If there were 48k cases, and the death rate was a constant 2%, we'd see about 960 deaths , or roughly 3x the number of deaths reported so far. Is that realistic? Is that fantastic? 600 deaths doesn't sound so difficult to sweep under the rug, especially if they are occurring nationwide over the course of two months. Also, many of those people would have been quite old, so their deaths would appear on the surface to be natural.
We may not know the exact numbers, but we know the trends and percentages from around the world, and we can use that info to make educated guesses.
Pump the brakes, brother. There is virtually no private testing in Japan because the country has mandated which institutions may perform the PCR tests. You can't walk into your neighborhood clinic and get a PCR test. This is a big part of the whole national dialogue right now. The places that give the tests have super strict criteria for performing the tests, and finding a place that will accept you (even after days of a fever) is apparently very difficult. Its not as if there is a whole different set of data from the private sector that everyone is ignoring. Its more like there is a presumed mountain of cases that don't get officially classified as covid19 because the patients weren't able to get the proper test.
This is what we have been speculating about in the past few days. The official number of cases is 13,000+, but the real number is...what? 24k? 48k?
If there were 48k cases, and the death rate was a constant 2%, we'd see about 960 deaths , or roughly 3x the number of deaths reported so far. Is that realistic? Is that fantastic? 600 deaths doesn't sound so difficult to sweep under the rug, especially if they are occurring nationwide over the course of two months. Also, many of those people would have been quite old, so their deaths would appear on the surface to be natural.
We may not know the exact numbers, but we know the trends and percentages from around the world, and we can use that info to make educated guesses.
Solve the problem?? Wake up. No human action is going to "solve" any Covid 19 related problem, not that I even know exactly what problem you are even referring to.
And you really need to stop accusing me of failing to explain to you the completely obvious. I didn't fail. I just didn't bother to go into great detail about what should be completely obvious. I did however earlier provide a link to the Swedish example. Do you even remember that?
We been over this several times now. And that fact is a good reason not to bother trying to tell you anything. I could waste my time in more enjoyable ways.
I have added plenty to the discussion and I reiterated my position because Lothor literally asked me to.....AND you keep forgetting previous discussion.
In short, stop accusing me of the same garbage over and over. Grow up and get over your childish little emotional issues with me and get off my case. In fact, you can just stop replying to me altogether. You could do us all a favor and just shut up totally.
Solve the problem?? Wake up. No human action is going to "solve" any Covid 19 related problem, not that I even know exactly what problem you are even referring to.
And you really need to stop accusing me of failing to explain to you the completely obvious. I didn't fail. I just didn't bother to go into great detail about what should be completely obvious. I did however earlier provide a link to the Swedish example. Do you even remember that?
We been over this several times now. And that fact is a good reason not to bother trying to tell you anything. I could waste my time in more enjoyable ways.
Let's not act dense. The problem is a pandemic. Solving it means minimizing its impact. Health impacts of course. But also economic.
So is that what you're saying? Just do what Sweden is doing? First of all Japan was similarly taking the wait and see approach.
But that wasn't working out in case you haven't noticed.
Secondly, Japan's population is much more dense and is over 10 times total population so instead of sounding like a parrot maybe take time to explain why the same approach would work in Japan. Which is hard to do since it's not yet clear that Sweden's approach will work out considering that Sweden's mortality rate is in the top ten, more than U.S. even
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
I have added plenty to the discussion and I reiterated my position because Lothor literally asked me to.....AND you keep forgetting previous discussion.
In short, stop accusing me of the same garbage over and over. Grow up and get over your childish little emotional issues with me and get off my case. In fact, you can just stop replying to me altogether. You could do us all a favor and just shut up totally.
Perhaps you haven't noticed but you're the one that keeps flying off the handle and being disruptive and rude in these forums. And your last sentence is a huge LOL.
You are dead wrong. Unnecessary BS accusations is what is making me angry.
Straight up cause I have had it...is mdchachi suffering from altzheimers? Cause other than him intentionally being a douche, its the only other explanation I have for his disruptive rudeness.
Explain to us how a lockdown you approve of works cause if my prior explanations are not enough for you, then you either 1) forgot what I even said before or 2) don't feel I answered with the type of detail you wanted. So explain what you want/expect/suggest in and for a lockdown, then I can know what you are looking for. What approach do you think will "work" in Japan? Then when I explain again and you forget again I will have a nice basis to show who is the actual problem here.
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