COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

[bentenmusume]

But news link says not until May 6?! If they're serious about it I don't understand the point of a delay.

From Monday (yesterday) to/until May 6.

And thirteen total prefectures (1,900 locations) in all.

Good thing I never eat there, but I shudder to think at how my buddy from my old office who ate there like five times a week is faring. (Then again, he's probably just getting takeout or delivery.)

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I feel like I'm in an extreme minority,

A minority on the sites I view, but not extreme. We are just about on the same page.

But one of the sites I view is Japan Today, and those people love to capitalize on any crisis/problem real or imagined to suggest fascist measures. Its their favorite pastime. You have to take that into account.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I don't see how it makes sense to lambaste them for the grave sin of failing to provide a pronunciation guide.

Followed by:

I fail to see how my diplomatically worded post trying to provide additional context about the phrase and the author's intent constitutes "lambasting" you.

So what I did was lambasting but what you did wasn't. I really feel I was using the term you brought up consistently but you weren't. All I said was that when presenting a kanji in an English dialogue dual speakers should know to include the pronunciation, particularly when the entire point is to help non-Japanese speakers in Japan. I never imagined that saying its so obvious that people should know better than to fail to do that would cause so much controversy.

Maybe you would prefer I say I got nitpicked rather than lambasted?

I will also add that knowing the pronunciation (or any extra fact about anything) is an aid to memory. And that goes double when one is looking at an unfamiliar writing system with nothing in their mind to attach it to.

And sure, its not established practice I know....but it seems extremely clear to me that it should be and its obvious it should be....as obvious as correct punctuation and using capital letters correctly....not because I was told this is the way....but simply because its obvious how it aids conveying messages.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Oops, that didn't age well. As of today Japan's covid19 deaths unfortunately eclipsed South Korea's. Japan is at 256, and South Korea is at 236.

Then again, can we trust those numbers? A difference of 20 in nations so large? I guarantee plenty of people died due to Covid 19 but were not tested or the test failed to show it, plus I bet some had Covid 19 but died for other reasons but their death was listed as due to Covid 19.

Plus plus, as with our citations of new cases, numbers may well vary by source.

 

[mdchachi]

From Monday (yesterday) to/until May 6.

Oops. Obviously I read that news item way too fast.

because I feel like I'm in an extreme minority,

I think everything you said is not a minority opinion. If any country should be able to get people to voluntarily comply with strict physical distancing rues without shutting down the economy it should be Japan. The population density is definitely a handicap though.

given the degree to which Japan is being treated as an international laughingstock and disaster, wouldn't you expect the country to be showing dramatically worse numbers than that?

Where are you seeing this pointing to Japan. I haven't seen it myself. We are focused on the domestic situation here.

Again, I have no doubt that the numbers in Japan will get worse than they are now as new cases continue to emerge. I just don't see evidence that Japan is headed for some massive crisis, at least from infections and virus-related deaths alone (the economy, unemployment, etc. is a whole different story).

I believe people think it will follow the exponential growth curve. Which means things can go from bad to worse very quickly. We had our first official case here March 10 and were (are?) the third hardest hit state a month later.

I'm holding out hope that the number of cases and fatalities will begin to peter out, and we can return to some semblance of normalcy sooner rather than later.

Definitely hoping Japan can find some happy medium of keeping the health catastrophe within manageable levels without major economic disruption.


Btw in this morning's news they had a story about a guy who collapsed on the street, sick from CV19 kind of like in the movie Contagion. After reading all those stories of people having difficulty getting access to medical care I can't say I'm surprised. It will be interesting to see the back story regarding if he sought care before this. I couldn't find an online link to this news item.

 

[Lothor]

That said, just personally and emotionally speaking, the situation still feels very surreal and I continue to have trouble coming to grips with it all. Seeing everyone talk about how isolating ourselves is an absolute virtue, and the best and most important thing we can do to save lives, seeing these memes about how you can "save the world by sitting at home and watching TV. Is that so much to ask?", etc. etc. I think of all my friends in the food and beverage business, tourism, etc. losing their jobs or entering very, very uncertain futures and can't help but wonder how they feel when the talking heads on TV are extolling the virtue of eliminating all non-essential human contact for god knows how long.

Perhaps some of it comes down to the inconsistent ways in which the standard is being applied. In this brave new world, you can't go out for dinner and drinks, see a movie, go to the gym, go to a concert or a museum, but you can take a still-relatively-packed train to your office job (fortunately, I'm freelance and don't have to do this, but it's just the principle of it). In Tokyo, bars are shut down entirely, restaurants have to stop serving drinks at 7 p.m. and close up at 8 p.m., and yet people can still line up for takeout at McDonald's (ugh) or eat out for lunch, etc. Is the virus only active at night? If it's fine for a coffee shop to halve their seating, have their staff wear masks, and serve people from 11 until 7, why can't my friend's sake bar do the same from 7 until 11?

My apologies for the rant.

The last thing you do is rant - you are one of the most measured, reasonable people on the board, but I think there's a bit of hyperbole in that first paragraph about 'for god knows how long'. Because the number of cases in Japan took off relatively late, we have the benefit of observing how things have panned out in other countries. It's not going to be for 'god knows how long'. It's going to be for a few weeks until the number of new cases drops significantly, as they will if we are strict now - look at Austria and New Zealand, then I'm sure the government will loosen the restrictions so that the politicians and other oyaji can go out boozing and womanising (I'm not suggesting for one second that you are a womanising oyaji but Japanese politicians have historically prioritised things after their own heart such as tobacco and viagra!).
I really feel for the bar and restaurant owners, I also have Japanese friends who own a bar, but it is in their (and everyone's) interest to be strict now and provide enough support (I'm not convinced that a lump sum to everyone is the best way of doing this) so as not to prolong the pain. I certainly agree with you that standards are being inconsistently applied though.

 

[bentenmusume]

The last thing you do is rant - you are one of the most measured, reasonable people on the board, but I think there's a bit of hyperbole in that first paragraph about 'for god knows how long'.

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I tend to get rather emotional in real life, so I try to make a conscious effort to think before I type when posting here.

And yes, your point is well taken. I suppose I was (over-emotionally) reacting to the general uncertain mood. Believe me, I'd be thrilled if this is over in a couple of weeks, but when I keep hearing all these pessimistic views about how Japan took too long, still isn't doing enough, is heading for a major outbreak, and so forth (even if I personally disagree with them), I can't help but sympathize with the uncertainty people face.

(I'm not suggesting for one second that you are a womanising oyaji...)

People who know me in real life (including my wife) might disagree with you there.
(Though perhaps more boozing than womanizing. Recently, at least...)

provide enough support (I'm not convinced that a lump sum to everyone is the best way of doing this)

Agreed 100%. I'll probably refrain from collecting the 10万円 (or perhaps collect it and donate it) since I haven't personally been affected financially by all this, but yes, it's clear the lump sum isn't going to be nearly enough for many people. The proposed 50万円 for freelancers and 100万円 for small businesses is closer to what's needed, I think, but still I think more comprehensive relief needs to be targeted specifically at the industries and individuals who are hurting the most from this.

I don't have a lot of faith in Abe's administration to actually get this done, but we'll see, I suppose...

 

[Lothor]

Agreed 100%. I'll probably refrain from collecting the 10万円 (or perhaps collect it and donate it) since I haven't personally been affected financially by all this, but yes, it's clear the lump sum isn't going to be nearly enough for many people. The proposed 50万円 for freelancers and 100万円 for small businesses is closer to what's needed, I think, but still I think more comprehensive relief needs to be targeted specifically at the industries and individuals who are hurting the most from this.

Collect the money. You and your children (if you have any) will be paying for it anyway through increased debt payments or reduced government spending in other areas. Then use it wisely, targeting your spending at people who have been most affected. This might be the only time in your life when spending money on booze can be called a wise use of money!

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Agreed 100%. I'll probably refrain from collecting the 10万円 (or perhaps collect it and donate it) since I haven't personally been affected financially by all this,

Lothor is right that you will pay for it in the future. I would recommend keeping 10 to 20 percent for yourself to cover that cost and maybe give the rest to a person you know needs it.

Of course Lothor also makes a good suggestion to purchase from those you know need it.

(Though perhaps more boozing than womanizing. Recently, at least...)

I find womanizing to be such a meaningless, genderist and despicable term you won't find me using it except to tell you my disdain for it and the concept that the word embodies that its okay to criticize someone's sex/relationship life in this way or pass such a summary judgement based on number without knowing other details of a person. Its totally not. Someone might have leveled that at me for one night stands BUT half the time the girl wanted it that way (for various reasons) or I decided after the first time that there was no future there to be had. I want long term relationships, but the only way to find them is to risk short term ones obviously.

And its even worse since there is no such term for women, not that there should be.

That said, I am sure lots of prostitutes could use the money!

 

[Mark of Zorro]

New cases from April 15. According to my source, (but not Majestic's) a steady decline. I will give it another 5 days of numbers before I break my own arm patting myself on the back (somebody will have to do it if I remain correct in my prediction). I might have been too dramatic predicting a "drop" but you know, drama is sort of my posting style. Honestly, I was not expecting a free fall, although I was expecting it to go a bit faster.

Anyway, if this continues we will have plenty of time to argue if it was spring that did it mostly, or the government pleading with the public, or the masks or whatever. I cannot see me backing off of blaming spring, but with new information my mind can be changed.

April 15 741
April 16 605
April 17 556
April 18 509
April 19 501
April 20 338

Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[musicisgood]

Yes. Osaka and Kyoto too. But news link says not until May 6?! If they're serious about it I don't understand the point of a delay.

Wow! I wonder why the delay.

 

[mdchachi]

Wow! I wonder why the delay.

I misspoke. It was until May 6 not from May 6. Sorry about that.

 

[mdchachi]

New cases from April 15. According to my source, (but not Majestic's) a steady decline. I will give it another 5 days of numbers before I break my own arm patting myself on the back (somebody will have to do it if I remain correct in my prediction). I might have been too dramatic predicting a "drop" but you know, drama is sort of my posting style. Honestly, I was not expecting a free fall, although I was expecting it to go a bit faster.

Anyway, if this continues we will have plenty of time to argue if it was spring that did it mostly, or the government pleading with the public, or the masks or whatever. I cannot see me backing off of blaming spring, but with new information my mind can be changed.

April 15 741
April 16 605
April 17 556
April 18 509
April 19 501
April 20 338

Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The more I read the more I feel the testing situation is a farce. The testing capacity is maxed and the amount of tests conducted daily and weekly is highly variable. Capacity is supposedly 7800 tests a day but on April 18 only 3,300 tests were performed (per secondhand source). Not sure if it's due to staffing or machine down time or what. My point being without knowing how many tests were conducted on these days it's very difficult to judge if the numbers are actually going down or not. Theoretically test capacity should be growing and if so these numbers would be good news indeed. But that doesn't seem to be the case.
NHK story that highlights the testing issue. Japan struggles to provide coronavirus tests | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
There are a lot of conspiracy theories about it although I tend not to jump on those. General incompetency and bureaucratic b.s. are the likely cause imo.

 

[bentenmusume]

Not to be morbid about it all, but that's why I tend to pay more attention to the death rate than the daily number of new cases. The latter has never struck me as a particularly reliable measure, since we don't know what the denominator (i.e. the number of tests being conducted) is.

Meanwhile, with the death rate, although, yes, that still can be fudged to some degree (deaths being attributed to other causes like pneumonia, old age, etc. etc.), I can't help but feel that it's a more accurate measure of the current situation than just the number of cases. One of the doctors on the news made an argument along those lines yesterday, and though I try to take what I hear on TV with a grain of salt, it seemed like a well-reasoned point.

Anyhow, I agree that the degree to which cases are being underreported and untreated, it's most likely the result of bureaucratic red tape and incompetence rather than any wide-scale, over-arching conspiracy to suppress the numbers (honestly, given their general fumbling and bumbling of late, I don't really think Abe and his cronies would be capable of pulling off such a conspiracy even if they wanted to).

 

[mdchachi]

Not to be morbid about it all, but that's why I tend to pay more attention to the death rate than the daily number of new cases. The latter has never struck me as a particularly reliable measure, since we don't know what the denominator (i.e. the number of tests being conducted) is.

Meanwhile, with the death rate, although, yes, that still can be fudged to some degree (deaths being attributed to other causes like pneumonia, old age, etc. etc.), I can't help but feel that it's a more accurate measure of the current situation than just the number of cases. One of the doctors on the news made an argument along those lines yesterday, and though I try to take what I hear on TV with a grain of salt, it seemed like a well-reasoned point.

Anyhow, I agree that the degree to which cases are being underreported and untreated, it's most likely the result of bureaucratic red tape and incompetence rather than any wide-scale, over-arching conspiracy to suppress the numbers (honestly, given their general fumbling and bumbling of late, I don't really think Abe and his cronies would be capable of pulling off such a conspiracy even if they wanted to).

I think the death rate so far is low enough to be absorbed in normal rates without seeming like a major catastrophe.
The latest research has put the "true" mortality rate at about .35%.

 

[Majestic]

Hi guys,
This is a useful, credible (I think) site if you want to follow the various statistics including tests. (Japanese lang. only. The daily test numbers are shown in the "PCR" graph)

新型コロナウイルス 国内感染の状況

日本国内において現在確定している新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）の状況を厚生労働省の報道発表資料からビジュアル化した

toyokeizai.net

Stick with us, Benten-san - I disagree with the deVries article, but I agree with your macro observation: despite two months of dealing with the virus, Tokyo has not yet gone "Planet of the Apes", and this is interesting in the global context. Anything that acknowledges that Japan isn't falling apart like New York, feels like a breath of fresh air. But I'm also looking for possible explanations as to why this is so. Manipulation of the numbers, use of face masks, early cancellation of the schools, public hygiene... or is there some other factor (or is it a combination of all of the above?).

I have some more thoughts on the "death rate" metric that I'm trying to put down in a post that isn't three pages long. I think Japan could be neglecting to count the official numbers, but even if they are under-reporting their covid cases, the real number would still put Japan at about the same rate as Korea, which is good compared to the west.

Here are the NHK numbers from yesterday

Yesterday there were 390 people newly infected with covid19. A drop from the previous Tuesday (482), but higher than two Tuesdays ago (360).
Tokyo at 123 new cases (32% of the national total).

 

[bentenmusume]

Thanks for the link; I hadn't visited that particular site yet (though I have been following the news on NHK and the like).

Anyhow, after seeing both of your latest posts, I think we're on the same page here. To make it clear again, I have absolutely no intention of or desire to carry water for the Japanese government. I have no love for Abe and his administration, and I believe that they're doing an especially terrible job in ensuring the livelihoods of the most vulnerable period in this time of forced closures and stoppages.

Any degree to which I might seem (overly?) positive and optimistic about Japan's situation and future prospects is simply out of my own desire to find a silver lining and a reason to believe (perhaps naively?) that things will get better before they get worse.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Not to be morbid about it all, but that's why I tend to pay more attention to the death rate than the daily number of new cases. The latter has never struck me as a particularly reliable measure, since we don't know what the denominator (i.e. the number of tests being conducted) is.

Assuming they were doing enough testing that satisfied reasonable expectations we still would not know how many were infected due to the swarms who are asymptomatic. In other words, there were never going to be any truly reliable figures given anyway. Germany might have the closest in the world (at great cost too).

For my prediction its important to realize that I predicted the actual and true numbers of newly infected would go down, NOT necessarily the numbers gleaned by testing. However, its not too far fetched to believe that if the testing shows numbers going down, then the actual number is also going down.

In other words, I make no claims to the accuracy of any of the numbers. I am only making claims about the downward trend.

The only claim I could make about the death numbers is that we can expect it to start to fall about two weeks after the newly infected numbers start to fall, but I feel much less certain about that claim as it seems to take more lesser established factors into play.

 

[Majestic]

Before I launch into the "death rate" thing that has been sitting in various stages of incompletion in my short-term memory. I want to poke a large hole in DeVries's article. The premise of the article is that people aren't giving credit to Japan for its apparent successful handling of the outbreak. In a way he feels wounded on behalf of Japan for the lack of respect Japan the west is showing towards Japan. He says in some cases "Japan is paired with China", an allegation I find a bit unbelievable. Ultimately he blames Fukushima and Diamond Princess, but he is looking too far and wide for an answer. The west is incredulous of the Japanese numbers because of the low testing, and because of the trend.

I think these two graphs illustrate why Japan's response isn't seen as effective as Korea's response.

It's virtually the same if we just look at deaths

And South Korea isn't under lockdown. South Korea is back to normal with some significant precautions such as widespread temperature-taking, near-ubiquitous face masks, and hand sanitizer everywhere. Japan is two-weeks into its lockdown, and the linear scale is going vertical. So I struggle with the premise of his whole article.

I also think his idea that the "number of infections is hardly important, its the deaths and the critical cases that are important" is a tautology. The latter two are linked to the first one, so knowing the first one tells us something about the latter two.

 

[bentenmusume]

I just want to clarify that in no way did I post the De Vries article with the intention of saying that I agree with him 100 (or even 90, or 80) percent. I'm well aware (now, at least; I was under some wrong impressions when I made my initial comment) that South Korea has been successful (certainly more successful than Japan) in "flattening the curve" at this point.

My intent was merely to spur discussion and provide at least one alternate perspective to counteract the all doomsaying. I don't mean to suggest that we should conclude that Japan's response has been a resounding, unqualified success and/or heap praise upon the Abe administration, just that there's a while to go before we can declare that Japan has bungled the situation into an unmitigated catastrophe.

And regarding this point...

In a way he feels wounded on behalf of Japan for the lack of respect Japan the west is showing towards Japan.

Honestly, I can kind of sympathize with this. I'm not sure what sort of circles you run in, but I know quite a number of expat friends and acquaintances (many of whom I would describe as quite intelligent and measured, and who I agree with on many matters) who are quick to point fingers and mock pretty much everything about how Japan, the Japanese government, and even "Japanese people" in general are handling this situation. This despite the fact that oftentimes, by any objective measure, their home countries are in far more dire straits. So I can understand the sentiment here. (Again, not trying to be callous or point fingers at those other countries in return. It just can come off as a bit hypocritical when otherwise intelligent people do this.)

 

[Majestic]

No sweat Benten-san, it was a good article for spurring an important discussion. I get that you aren't trying to be a cheerleader for him.

I too have a lot of friends in the US and Europe, and a number of times they have messaged me saying, "Is it true Japan's numbers are spiking???" And I have to kind of calmly say, "well, yes they are spiking from (say) 150 cases a day to 200 cases a day". And then they quiet down.

Misery loves company, so when you are looking at hundreds of deaths a day, I think you instinctively look for other people to commiserate with. Or, you are looking for another partner so that you don't feel alone in your embarrassment of how your own country handled things.

 

[bentenmusume]

Likewise, I'm glad we were able to have this discussion. Though I've been around this board for a while (albeit with numerous multi-year hiatuses), I've typically stuck more to the language section, but it's nice to be able to have a discussion with reasonable, intelligent people regarding current affairs as well.

And just to clarify, I wasn't really talking about people abroad (most of whom are far more concerned with the situation in their respective home countries), so much as the type of expats living here who are quick to point a finger whenever Japan or "Japanese people" (it's a real pet peeve of mine when people talk as if the entire population of Japan is a single, collective hive mind) go about things in a way that doesn't jibe with their own Western sensibilities about how things "should" be done.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Japan is two-weeks into its lockdown, and the linear scale is going vertical.

This is just as one would expect as it takes at least two weeks just to show symptoms and, going by vague memories and impressions for an average, at least 5 days to die. Those dying today got it before the voluntary lockdown.

 

[Lothor]

Anyhow, I agree that the degree to which cases are being underreported and untreated, it's most likely the result of bureaucratic red tape and incompetence rather than any wide-scale, over-arching conspiracy to suppress the numbers (honestly, given their general fumbling and bumbling of late, I don't really think Abe and his cronies would be capable of pulling off such a conspiracy even if they wanted to).

We have different views on how strictly measures should be imposed but I can generally see where you are coming from - we just have slightly different opinions about the best trade-off between short-term and long-term pain and between saving lives by not infecting people and saving livelihoods (and lives because suicides will occur) by allowing people to carry on with business. And both of us are fumbling in the dark with incomplete knowledge.

However, I'm surprised at the above paragraph. You seem to be a long-term resident here. How many false reporting/document shredding/deliberate mislabelling/forged test data scandals have you lived through? I could probably get into double figures off the top of my head. To me, producing misleading data is as Japanese as bento and origami, and here the incentive to do so has been particularly high - the Olympics, face on the world stage, and the desire not to be a failure in front of an increasingly unhappy electorate. Abe and his cronies do generally fumble and bumble as you say, but they have plenty of highly intelligent people under them educated at the finest university in the land (ahem!) who are unquestioningly obedient, prepared to look the other way when necessary, and are working in an atmosphere of having to second-guess their masters' wishes (sontaku).

I'm not making claims to the extent of manipulation of the figures, and Japan has certainly kept the lid on things better than many western countries (so far - Singapore is a sobering example) but it would be highly unlikely that there has been no manipulation.

 

[bentenmusume]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not denying Japan has seen more than its fair share of cover-ups or conspiracies, or that Abe and co. aren't capable of and willing to fudge a few numbers here or there.

I just think some of the more exaggerated claims of literally thousands or tens of thousands of deaths being covered up, as cited by the more extreme conspiracy theorists out there are a bit beyond the realm of feasibility.

That said, given the relatively steady numbers over the last few days as the effects of the state of emergency are reflected, I'm hearing somewhat less sensationalism and panicking, which is something of a relief. Again, I'm under no delusions here, just hoping against hope that the worst of it is not yet to come.