The death of Japan?

[Nihonlover21]

A lowering population, combined with projections that Japan's economy will slowly become destroyed, will Japan become a poor nation with barely any people? Is it possible that Japan will retain its first world status and eventually reverse the population decline? My dream is to move to Japan after graduating college and working in the U.S. for a few years.

 

[nice gaijin]

The pendulum swings back and forth. And your last sentence seems to be unrelated to the thread; did you mean to ask whether there will be a Japan when you finally arrive?

Welcome to the boards, by the way.

 

[Nihonlover21]

Sorry for the confusion. I mean that I don't want to see my dream destroyed or fade away.

 

[MajideSaiaku]

Your dreams will be destroyed, or at least greatly altered, either way, because you will experience the real Japan first hand.
Japan will still be there for you by the way, America's economy is going to the dogs, but for all that it will still be there.

 

[Pachipro]

Nihonlover21 there is no need to fear that the Japan you desire to experience will be gone by the time you decide to go. Also, by the time Japan stops replacing the population due to low birth rates, and the Japanese do disappear, you will be long dead and gone.

As much as Japan may seem to change on the outside, it remains the same, as it always has, on the inside. Things are very, very slow to change there. Therefore, there is no need to fear. My only hope is, as nurizeko said, the Japan you envision may not be the Japan you experience when you get there. Either way you will experience the real Japan. Enjoy the experience while you can. Good luck!

 

[Nihonlover21]

I've studued both the good and bad sides of Japan for years, so I'm hope my vision of it is accurate. I hope it's not actually possible for a country to die out though.

 

[Carrie]

The JET program will give you the chance to live in Japan right after you graduate with no experience teaching English--all you need is a Bachelor's degree in almost anything--I lived in Japan for one year with the JET program and I didn't even know how to speak Japanese--the schools take care of everything . . .So don't put off your goals till later

 

[Tim33]

Your dreams will be destroyed.

Wouldnt go that far. My dream was to go to Japan. I moved to Japan a year ago and love it far more than i ever thought i would.

 

[crazybuyer]

I was in japan 5 times and I really love that country ^_^

 

[Mike Cash]

Wouldnt go that far. My dream was to go to Japan. I moved to Japan a year ago and love it far more than i ever thought i would.

You show up as still residing in Ukland.

 

[Tim33]

Yup i am back here for one year to do uni stuff then heading back to Japan again next July. Maybe i should have stated myself clearer.

 

[CBT1979]

I wouldn't say that Japan would face a die-out or a total economic collapse.
They will share the market with South Korea, China and Taiwan in the electronic section and still has much to offer (noone replaces Japan as the country of Anime&Manga).
Japan might have more problems with its automobile industry because its cars are getting too expensive (compared to Korean and Chinese cars) and still did not reach the status of Western cars.
Even with China's and India's economic growth in the present and future, I believe that Japan will remain in the top 3 Asian nations in terms of economy stability and wealth of its citizens.
What we will experience is the decline of US international politics in terms of dominant influence.
I think that Japan will be doing better than in Germany in the future.

 

[suaha]

I know a Japanese friend. He 's graduated in PHD and immigrate to Australia .
I think Smart Japanese people always immigrate to other countries that's the death of Japan.

 

[CBT1979]

I know a Japanese friend. He 's graduated in PHD and immigrate to Australia .
I think Smart Japanese people always immigrate to other countries that's the death of Japan.

I don't know why smart Japanese often emigrate but here in Germany, it is because the income tax is very high. top business people and other rich people like Michael Schumacher, Boris Becker etc. have their homes outside Germany. Why? because they would have need to pay almost 50% of their income to the government.
The German government is a social state which drains the money out of many wealthy people, and when they leave Germany, we have a problem then. And that is what has been happening for years. Smart and rich people leave Germany and foreign investors have no interest to do business in a country where you pay so much income tax.

 

[Duo 9]

I wonder if anyone here agrees that the U.S.A.'s economy and Japan's economy are so intertwined that they support eachother. If one goes, the other goes. I realize that both economies are currently suffering, but the partnership can't be broken, even if we wanted. They make many of our things, including most electronics and all computer chips. Our military needs these, and they need our military. Now I am just as opposed to keeping U.S forces in Japan as the next man, but their civil defense force wouldn't stand a chance on the off chance asian policies change and they come under attack. Sure, could never happen, right? Well, that's because our forces are there. I am merely stating the problem, I do not know of a solution. Go ahead and add to this if you want.

 

[Nicholas0016]

I wonder if anyone here agrees that the U.S.A.'s economy and Japan's economy are so intertwined that they support eachother. If one goes, the other goes. I realize that both economies are currently suffering, but the partnership can't be broken, even if we wanted. They make many of our things, including most electronics and all computer chips. Our military needs these, and they need our military. Now I am just as opposed to keeping U.S forces in Japan as the next man, but their civil defense force wouldn't stand a chance on the off chance asian policies change and they come under attack. Sure, could never happen, right? Well, that's because our forces are there. I am merely stating the problem, I do not know of a solution. Go ahead and add to this if you want.

Your absolutely correct. If japan were to have a typhoon that destroys some of the cities Japan would have to concintrate all their money into their country. Leaving us in the dirt, then our economy goes down alot because trades arent being processed. Japan and America rely on each other very much so.

 

[Artsman]

I want all the countries become strong and not war,just develop science and economy

 

[Kilt]

I wonder if anyone here agrees that the U.S.A.'s economy and Japan's economy are so intertwined that they support eachother. If one goes, the other goes. I realize that both economies are currently suffering, but the partnership can't be broken, even if we wanted.

Bad info or bad thinking. Neither the US or Japanese economy is suffering at the moment. Both are seeing decent growth, and in Japan's case a possible turnaround from years of stagnation.
The US can easily survive without a Japan. As proof, Japans economy has been stagnant for 10+ years and the US has been doing fine, and will continue to do fine. Japan is screwed for two reasons.
1) They have no natural resources. Japan can in no way become a self sufficient 1st world country with the natural resources that it has. Japan does fine now because everyone is willing to sell their abundant natural resources cheap.
2) The Japanese debt coupled with a decreasing population is and will result in a continued devaluation of the Yen. When you factor this in to #1 that means in the long run Japan will no longer be able to purchase the resources it needs, especially if these resources start to become scarce and more expensive.

The original poster is worried about Japan dying before he gets here. I wouldn't worry. Japan won't fall apart overnight, more likely it will take 20 years, but you never know. At some point the Japanese people will have to pay for their governments debt. I have no plan on being in Japan when that happens. If you think Taxes in Germany are bad.....
Kilt.

 

[Pachipro]

Bad info or bad thinking. Neither the US or Japanese economy is suffering at the moment. Both are seeing decent growth, and in Japan's case a possible turnaround from years of stagnation.
The US can easily survive without a Japan.

Sorry to burst your bubble there Kilt, but the US cannot survive without Japan, and China for that matter. Both Japan and China are keeping America alive and out of bankruptcy due to their buying of $3billion worth of US treasuries every month. If the US lowers interest rates there is fear that China especially, may curtail their buying of the treasuries. If that would happen, America would be in a world of hurt. The American economy is suffering, only you will never read about it in the papers. High paying jobs are fleeing the country at an enormous pace and, even though 'they' say jobs are increasing, the only jobs that are increasing are low paying hourly or part-time jobs. The US has only 16% of it's manufacturing capacity left! Even Ford will be filing for bankruptcy protection soon or Toyota will merge with them. You watch.

The US dollar is backed by nothing, nada, zero, and the Federal Reserve stopped publishing M-3 numbers over a year ago. (M-3 is the number of US dollars in circulation.) Since the dollar is a fiat currency and M-3 is no longer published, the US can print as many dollars as they want with nothing to back it up and no one knows anymore how many dollars are in circulation. In a few years the US dollar will be worth nothing and they will finally form the American Union with Canada and Mexico and produce a new currency, The 'Amero'.

The US is a debter nation with the average family having over $8,000 in credit card debt alone! And the savings rate is in negative territory. The average American is two paychecks away from bankruptcy and losing their home. Without the avilability of easy credit the economy will collapse. Thus they keep the majority of people in debt and we all know that the borrower is slave to the lender. The total federal US debt is $8.5 trillion and growing at more that $500 billion/year and the US trade deficit is running about $800 billion/year. Both are the highest of any country in world history! Total US debt (private, corporate, and government) is now $44 trillion (44,000,000,000,000 in US numbers or 44,000,000,000,000,000,000 in UK numbers!) with another $45-$50 trillion in unfunded liabilities over the next 30 years! How in god's name is that to ever be paid back to the world's bankers which ARE The Federal Reserve by the way. The world is losing confidence in the US dollar.

Japan, on the other hand, is a nation of savers and they may survive more easily than the US as their debt as a nation is far, far lower than the US. With this they will always be able to purchase their resources.

China, one of the fastest growing economies in the world and needs both Japan and the US to buy their goods in order to keep growing. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the next few years. But you can bet nothing good can come out of all this debt!

Will Japan survive the coming crisis? I think it will, more easily than the US maybe and will retain it's identity and I, for one, would rather be in Japan when the crash comes, and come it will, and not here in the US.

 

[GodEmperorLeto]

Pachipro's right. The U.S. economy is actually in horrific shape. We don't feel it right now, though, because we have a false economy based on all of that debt spending. It's a shame that my generation has learned nothing from our parents' spending habits in the 1980s, and the recession that hit when we entered high school in the early '90s. I also agree with Pachipro that I'd rather be in Japan when the crash hits. It won't be as bad as 1929, but it'll be bad. Ford Motor Company just reported its worst loss in it's 103 year history, and that is somewhat representative of what is going on right now.

The U.S. will bounce back, I have no doubt. We have great resources that we have yet to tap. The problem is our work-ethic is in the toilet. I imagine a decade's worth of eating beans out of a can will teach my compatriots the value of a day's work.

 

[Kilt]

but the US cannot survive without Japan, and China for that matter. Both Japan and China are keeping America alive and out of bankruptcy due to their buying of $3billion worth of US treasuries every month. If the US lowers interest rates there is fear that China especially, may curtail their buying of the treasuries. If that would happen, America would be in a world of hurt.
The US dollar is backed by nothing, nada, zero, and the Federal Reserve stopped publishing M-3 numbers over a year ago.

What dollar is worth anything, what dollar is backed by anything? The yen certainly isn't worth anything. There is no feasible way the Japan will ever pay it's debt back unless you bankrupt the country.

The total federal US debt is $8.5 trillion and growing at more that $500 billion/year and the US trade deficit is running about $800 billion/year.

And relative to the GDP these numbers are minor (60-70%). As for the deficity, these can easily be fixed, I won't make comments on how, but I think most people can figure it out. The deficit can be fixed and the debt is still reasonable. I can't really comment on personal debt as that is more complicated. On paper sometimes things can look worse than they are in reality. If I just bought a house 5 years ago for $300,000, I might show up on paper as being $200,000+ in debt. But my $300,000 house might actually be worth over $500,000 now due to the booming housing market (slowing down now). Plus it is far too easy for people just to pull out the bk (bankrupt) card.

Japan, on the other hand, is a nation of savers and they may survive more easily than the US as their debt as a nation is far, far lower than the US. With this they will always be able to purchase their resources.

Yah, but they are a nation of YEN savers, they get no interest on their yen, that is depreciated against every major currency. Maybe I am stereotyping because of the people I know basically keep all their coin in postal account or in Japan bonds that pay 1%, if they even save money.

China, one of the fastest growing economies in the world and needs both Japan and the US to buy their goods in order to keep growing. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the next few years. But you can bet nothing good can come out of all this debt!

I agree here. I think Japan and China will continue to support the US dollar in order to keep the ball rolling. They own to many $'s to begin with, and as you mentioned they are dependant on the US to buy their products. I am amazed Japan has survived this long with such a significant federal debt. But I worry now seeing the decreasing yen. In the meantime, I won't be holding any Yen or US$. I still see the US as having the ability to bounce back from any economic slowdown better than Japan.

Kilt.

 

[包龙星]

It's hard to predict. In fact, Japan's economy never stopped developing.
Oweing to the tech of saving fuel and high electricity tech,I think in the next 30 years,Japan will fully recover. It's also very necessary to China and all the world,if Japan's economy exposed,as world's second richest country.the world might be caught in another great-depression..what's more,if it came ture, as a special nation(from many aspects),Japan may change its policy towards other nations,which may cause tensions with others..

 

[heion]

I think Japan will still be there, because like someone said already, the Japanese economy is doing well. It used to be bad but slowly they are getting out of that. I do wonder about the people "in" Japan, in a couple of years. Since there are a lot of old people. Who knows what might happen.

 

[cyberryo]

Japan is confronting the challenge of supporting a rapidly aging population and indeed its Retirement Income System will strain the country's coffer if it remains the same. I think this should be resolved first. Stop the leakage in the system.
Manufacturing-wise, the country has always been competitive and innovative. While it has to counter the very low cost production bases of China and India now, Japanese firms have started operations in those countries to benefit from the low cost too.
However, more and more of the new generation of Japanese will need to move into new growth arenas such as anime and ??? This is the continuous challenge.

 

[Kilt]

I would love to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but everytime I look at the situation all I can see is Japan with a very gloomy future.
****://***.mof.go.jp/english/budget/pamphlet/cjfc2006.pdf
At the moment, nearly 50% of japans fiscal budget is for servicing the debt and paying for social security related expenses. Both of these are on the increase.
By 2017 we will all be paying 18.30% of our salary to a pension. A pension that we will probably never receive. That is an increase of 4% over what we pay now. So who cares right? We don't pay high taxes in Japan. Nope, we don't but likely we will see a 5% increase in the consumption tax over the same 10 year period. You can also expect to pay higher health care costs due to our aging population.
And at some point, people are going to quit buying bonds. How do they then fund the debt? If you get no interest on your bonds, why buy them? But Japan can't raise interest rates because they can't afford to pay the interest on their debt.
Now toss in a weakening yen.
And dont forget Japans aging population and its declining birth rate.
Another beautiful thing is the Arbaito job. Companies are eager to switch people over to these positions. They even want to switch my job to this type of positions. And then pay you 1000 yen an hour, no benefits to work 40 hours a week. Just wonderful, you make 160000yen a month, pay nearly half to your landlord, over 25% to taxes, pension and health care you are left with a measly 40000yen to survive on for the month. Yah, that is enough to cover your train fair and lunches and that is about it. Why would people ever want to work at these jobs? Guess it is fine if you live at home.
And yet many people look at the economy and think - well, economies booming, things are doing fine. But reality is that Japan's government has spent far more money that it can ever think to repay. A debt that is 160% of GDP. And they are tacking on 30 trillion yen every year. The problem is staring them right in the face and they don't have the slightest clue how to tackle it. Look at the proposed solutions. These solutions come across as the reason Japan has such a large debt in the first place.
Japan will continue to throw money at make work projects until finally the international community gives up on them and invests their money elsewhere. At the moment, Japan is only doing well because of China. China's growth is not sustainable and will be coming to a halt. Japan will suffer even more then.
There is a solution to every problem, but for whatever reason, the government can't or doesn't want to fix it.
Kilt.