Misery Index: Japan vs ....

[Astroboy]

The misery index was initiated by economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960's. It is simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation both create economic and social costs for a country. A combination of rising inflation and more people of out of work implies a deterioration in economic performance and a rise in the misery index.

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate; May 2008

Japan: 4.0 + 1.3 = 5.3
USA: 5.5 + 4.18 = 9.68
EU: 7.2 + 3.7 = 10.9

Misery of Japan is about half of EU ???

Btw, please add Misery index of other countries if you have reliable source.

Sources:
Statistics Bureau Home Page
US Misery Index
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[hideway]

I'm sorry to say this, but that misery index sounds like crap to me.
Economics aren't measured this way.

 

[Astroboy]

Misery Index Update June 2008

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate

JAPAN: 4.0% + 1.9% = 5.9%
USA: 5.5% + 5.02% = 10.52%
EU: n.a. yet.

Japan Inflation Rises to Decade-High 1.9% in June. I hardly remember "nearly 2% inflation" in my life. So, 2% inflation is very fresh to me.
Meantime, Misery index of both Japan and USA has got worse than May.

Source:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
指標予測＝6月完全失業率は4.0％、有効求人倍率は7カ月連続で1倍割れ
US Misery Index

 

[Pachipro]

Misery Index Update June 2008

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate

JAPAN: 4.0% + 1.9% = 5.9%
USA: 5.5% + 5.02% = 10.52%

I would like to add that, if you use the methods of the 1970's, where everything was taken into account and there was no such thing as "Core Inflation" (Inflation that excludes food and energy which we all should know are the real indicators of inflation) then the US inflation rate today is about 13%! (So called "Core Inflation" is just a way for the mass media to deflate the actrual numbers so the US populace will not become alarmed. C'mon people! Are you so desensitized and brainwashed that you actually believe these numbers? One look at your weekly food and gas bills this week should convince you that inflation is not the 5% they are feeding you!)

Therefore, using your calculations Astroboy, the US misery index should be 5.5% + 13% = 18.5%! which indicates that the USA should be (and probably is) the most miserable country in the world! Unfortunately, most people do not understand this as they only get their news from 7 second sound bites on TV which tells them that everything is fine! And the worst is behind us! HA!

 

[Astroboy]

I can ..... hardly imagine the impact of 13% inflation (General index including fresh foods & energy) !!!!!

Compared to the US inflation, the Japanese inflation is almost none as Japan's June CPI (1.9%) is the number excluding fresh foods. If excluding fresh foods and energy, .... the "core inflation" is only 0.1% in Japan in June.
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm

Pachipro ... you better come to Japan.

 

[Pachipro]

I can ..... hardly imagine the impact of 13% inflation (General index including fresh foods & energy) !!!!!

And that is what it is today Astroboy. I believe it will only get worse in the coming months. Just watch and see. It will be far worse than anyone can believe. I believe that by mid 2010 America will be on her knees. Hopefully I am wrong, but indications point to it.

Japan will be a paradise compared to the US and probably China too!

 

[Astroboy]

Misery Index June 2008 re-updated

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate

JAPAN: 4.1% + 2.0% = 6.1%
USA: 5.5% + 5.02% = 10.52%
EU: 6.8% + 4.3% = 11.1%

Source:
Statistics Bureau Home Page
US Misery Index
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The misery index of Japan and USA are getting worse unfortunately.

 

[Astroboy]

Misery Index September 2008 re-updated

Inflation rate was eased, but unemployment rate was up as the world economy entered into recession. EU keep its position of Misery champion among 3 major economies.

EU's unemployment rate - 7.0% - is quite serious. Social unrest will be more concerned in the EU countries.

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate
JAPAN: 4.0% + 2.1% = 6.1%
USA: 6.1% + 4.94% = 11.04%
EU: 7.0% + 4.2% = 11.2%

Source:
Statistics Bureau Home Page
US Misery Index
Press corner
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[JerseyBoy]

And that is what it is today Astroboy. I believe it will only get worse in the coming months. Just watch and see. It will be far worse than anyone can believe. I believe that by mid 2010 America will be on her knees. Hopefully I am wrong, but indications point to it.
Japan will be a paradise compared to the US and probably China too!

I tend to think America is more resilient than Japan due to the size of the economy, population, and dynamic ideologies. I am more concerned about the future of Japan given its aging population, lack of natural resources, small land mass, isolationist mentality (An example: not many Japanese people can discuss things intelligently with people from other countries in English), stagnant economy, too egalitarian economic system (high taxes), overbearing bureaucratic regulations, and the list goes on and on.

 

[Astroboy]

I tend to think America is more resilient than Japan due to the size of the economy, population, and dynamic ideologies. I am more concerned about the future of Japan given its aging population, lack of natural resources, small land mass, isolationist mentality (An example: not many Japanese people can discuss things intelligently with people from other countries in English), stagnant economy, too egalitarian economic system (high taxes), overbearing bureaucratic regulations, and the list goes on and on.

Thank you for your consideration about Japan. I have some thoughts as follows;

1. Ageing population - everywhere the same in advanced countries. Instead of taking easy solution - foreign migrants - Japan has been developing Robotics, and the Japanese companies are investing overseas. Today Chinese and Americans are working for us.

2. Lack of natural resource helped us become energy-efficient, which make our industries more competitive today. In addition, we don't need to dig natural resource, but we can buy.

3. Isolationsist mentality is good for retaining Japan as it was.

4. Corporate tax is the same as US, and VAT is much less than other advanced countries.

5. Stagnat economy - Yes, Japan is one Lap earlier than USA. But we don't see much homeless here, while homelsss are increasing in USA.

6. Bureautic .. Thanking to regulations, we can keep narrowing wealth gap ... unlike your country.

Japan is a country of Japanese, not for others.

 

[Pachipro]

I tend to think America is more resilient than Japan due to the size of the economy, population, and dynamic ideologies.

You can believe that if you want, but this time things are different. The only "invisible hand" guiding economics in the US is the "invisible hand" of the International bankers that are guiding the US into the toilet.

America WILL NOT, I repeat, WILL NOT come out of this recession/depression for many years. THE GDP of America is 72% dependent on US consumer spending and, being a debtor nation with negative savings, the US consumer has stopped spending and credit has all but dried up. Just watch what happens this Christmas season where most retailers receive 70% of their yearly revenue. It will NOT be there this year and will be the worst in more than 50 years.

As I've said for the past two years, America is a doomed nation (all planned) and neither Obama or the resiliency of the American people will bring her out of this turmoil as much as people may think so. The president DOES NOT make the decisions. The international bankers do. You can take that to the bank if the bank doesn't fail in the short term or is swallowed up by the FDIC.

Unemployment is at a near 20 year high, layoffs occur on a daily basis, companies are closing and even my own company, for the first time in it's 78 year history, is laying off people beginning next week. We will lose about 1/3 of our drivers because the freight is not there and is not expected to be there for more than a year.

Japan will survive because of it's savings rate and it's lack of debt. One look at the recent strength of the yen will show you that when all other currencies are declining. The dollar will also decline drastically within 6 months to a year. If you have a job in Japan, I suggest you stay there until a new, socialist economy is implimented in the US.

 

[Ukonkivi]

And here when I came into this thread I thought it was about literally trying to gauge how happy they were. Talk about being an economic newbie.

Well...being in a recession is kind of depressing. Yes, finding a job is hard in the United States right now.;_; And many times as hard in Japan for me where I'd like to work because I'm a foreigner.

Anyway, I really hope you're wrong about America being a doomed nation.
I live here, and Japan I would be a foreigner, so even worse.
And Europe doesn't want Americans either.

But then again you would know more than me.
*crosses fingers*
If only we had Ron Paul he looked like a guy who knew what was right for the economy.

 

[Pachipro]

Anyway, I really hope you're wrong about America being a doomed nation.

I wish I was wrong, but it was all written years ago beginning in the 70's with the planned collapse of the US beginning with the planned demise of the US steel industry and the opening of relations with China. It was all planned back then to "use" China and it's billions of people as a cheap alternative to US labor in order to increase profits for US corporations and line the pockets of the elite an dthe hell with the expendable US worker as they are needed anymore.

If only we had Ron Paul he looked like a guy who knew what was right for the economy.

You are quite correct about Ron Paul, but he was made to look like a kook by the media as he cannot be bought and is not an "insider" bought by the campaign contributions of the bankers and corporations. He, above anyone, knows exactly what is going on and can fix it if given the chance. Sadly, he has no chance, nor ever will, against the International bankers unless he receives massive support from the general populace. That will never come as the the sheeple of the US believes Obama is the Messiah that will save the US and bring jobs back to the US. I wonder how they will feel in a year or two. Unfortunately, I believe they will still believe he can do it and will blame everything on the Republicans and Bush when it was the bankers and corporations who pull the puppet strings no matter who is president.

 

[4321go]

I wish I was wrong, but it was all written years ago beginning in the 70's with the planned collapse of the US beginning with the planned demise of the US steel industry and the opening of relations with China. It was all planned back then to "use" China and it's billions of people as a cheap alternative to US labor in order to increase profits for US corporations and line the pockets of the elite an dthe hell with the expendable US worker as they are needed anymore.
You are quite correct about Ron Paul, but he was made to look like a kook by the media as he cannot be bought and is not an "insider" bought by the campaign contributions of the bankers and corporations. He, above anyone, knows exactly what is going on and can fix it if given the chance. Sadly, he has no chance, nor ever will, against the International bankers unless he receives massive support from the general populace. That will never come as the the sheeple of the US believes Obama is the Messiah that will save the US and bring jobs back to the US. I wonder how they will feel in a year or two. Unfortunately, I believe they will still believe he can do it and will blame everything on the Republicans and Bush when it was the bankers and corporations who pull the puppet strings no matter who is president.

I wish that too~ and I wish your story is fake

 

[Pachipro]

I wish that too~ and I wish your story is fake

Sadly, it is true. All you have to do is read Zbigniew Brzezinski's book "Between Two Ages" (written in the 1970's just after relations with China was established by President Nixon) where he lays the blueprint for all that is happening today and where he states that, paraphrasing here, "the technology of the 21st century must crush and obliterate the technology of the 20th century." He is considered a genius when it comes to laying the groundwork for a New World Order (NWO) and his suggestions have been followed to a tee.

Just read Wikipedia's link above and follow the links on the book I have listed. It is an education in itself and it is sad that China so easily fell into the trap of the capitalists looking to use China's cheap labor as they did in Europe and the US. But greed knows no borders or race. It is inherent in all humans and China has fallen into the trap of the globalists. In the short run (50 years or so) China and it's people will benefit as Europe and the US did in the past, but soon they will look for other sources of cheap labor and the Chinese economy will go the way of Europe and the US. The same holds for India.

 

[JerseyBoy]

Japan is a country of Japanese, not for others.

How true!
About the taxes and wealth gap, I used to pay lower "personal" taxes in USA (with ample deductions I piled on my tax return) than in Japan. I am comfortable with the wealth gap. I am rather annoyed with the wealth distribution of my hard earned money by the government. I am for paying for the services provided by the government and all; but, there are so many free loaders in the country.

 

[Astroboy]

I am comfortable with the wealth gap. I am rather annoyed with the wealth distribution of my hard earned money by the government. I am for paying for the services provided by the government and all; but, there are so many free loaders in the country.

IF I were American, probably I will follow you.

In short, nature of TWO countries (Japan and USA) is quite different.
USA is a country developed by the people from various backgrounds, while Japan is something like "AIR" for the Japanese being with the same background.

IF US government try to establish well welfare, some will say "WHY I have to bear the cost of others, who I don't feel any sympathy or similar....."

IF I am wrong, please forgive me.

 

[ArmandV]

As bad as this recession is, it is still not as bad as the economic conditions under Jimmy Carter.

Back then, we had 12% unemployment, double-digit inflation and gasoline shortages. We are not anywhere near those figures.

If the Democrats have their way and raise taxes, it will make this situation even worse.

I read that the dollar is performing well against the Euro, but I've noticed that the dollar is performing badly against the yen.

 

[Astroboy]

Misery Index Update for October 2008

Generally, Misery Index of 3 major economies declined marginally in October.
Inflation rate dropped significantly, but unemployment rate continued to soar as the world economic slowdown become more serious and spread worldwide.

Unfortunately, EU continues to hold its position of Misery Champion among 3 major economies.

EU's unemployment rate is now causing Social unrest - typically Greece - which may spread across European continent.

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate
JAPAN: 3.7% + 1.7% = 5.4%
USA: 6.5% + 3.66% = 10.16%
EU: 7.1% + 3.7% = 10.8%

Source:
Statistics Bureau Home Page
US Misery Index
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[JerseyBoy]

EU's unemployment rate is now causing Social unrest - typically Greece - which may spread across European continent.

Greece is known for the protests on the frequent basis. The recent unrest has more than one cause (it is not correct to state it is caused by the unemployment). Please read the news.
Even though it is highly unlikely the Greek unrest spread to the other parts of the EU zone, if it does, that would be triggered by the cataclysmic economic deterioration or collapse. Under that circumstance, I will bet my dollar (or yen for that matter) Japan will get affected significantly (it would be scary to see a lonely Japan in the economic depression surrounded by neighbors who don't like Japan much).

 

[JerseyBoy]

IF I were American, probably I will follow you.
IF I am wrong, please forgive me.

Apology accepted. But, please don't follow me (what fun would there be if many Japanese follow my path).

 

[Astroboy]

Greece is known for the protests on the frequent basis. The recent unrest has more than one causes (it is not correct to state it is caused by the unemployment). Please read the news.
Even though it is highly unlikely the Greek unrest spread to the other parts of the EU zone, if it does, that would be triggered by the cataclysmic economic deterioration or collapse. Under that circumstance, I will bet my dollar (or yen for that matter) Japan will get affected significantly (it would be scary to see a lonely Japan in the economic depression surrounded by neighbors who don't like Japan much).

There are many interestng opinions/forecast/anticipations in the world.
One of my favorites is Leap 2020 – Just another WordPress site (an European ThinkTank). So far their predictions proved right.
Since the launch of GEAB in January 2006, our subscribers knew and could anticipate many months ahead the following developments:

. explosion of US real-estate bubble
. collapse of US growth
. end of M3 publication and impact on the dollar
. international stock exchange crisis
. steep rise of Euro-Dollar exchange rate so far.
and will be ....
. investors' fleet away from dollar-assets
. inflation's come-back
. growing tensions between China/Asia and the US
. internal systemic risks in China and the EU
. escalation of Iran/US/Israel confrontations
. Western powerlessness towards Iran at UN Security Council
. increasing strategic EU/US decoupling
. NATO's fast weakening
. EU's growing influence in the Middle-East
. total deadlock on EU constitutional project
. unprecedented political and institutional crisis in the EU,ﾂ…
It is likely that Japan has not been on their prediction table yet.

 

[Astroboy]

Misery Index Update for November 2008

Misery Index of 3 major economies was improved again in November last year.
as inflation rate continued to drop, but unemployment rate remain at high level or increased as the global financial turmoil affects real economy.

EU continues to be the Misery Champion among 3 major economies.

US/EU economies are about entering "Deflation" ..... exactly the same path as the Japanese. To My Dear American/European posters, IF you have a big mortgage (typically house loan), Deflation is quite painful because market value of your house decline but mortgage amount remain unchanged.

Voluntary bankruptcy will be your option. GOOD Luck

Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate
JAPAN: 3.9% + 1.0% = 4.9%
USA: 6.7% + 1.07% = 7.77%
EU: 7.2% + 2.1% = 9.3%
Source:
Statistics Bureau Home Page
US Misery Index
EUROPA - European Union website, the official EU website

 

[4321go]

unemployment is 7% .which lower than China~

 

[Astroboy]

unemployment is 7% .which lower than China~

I am always looking for any trustable figures of Chinese economy.
Are there any ? ☝