Society Japan to face 570,000 care worker shortage by 2040

Japan is projected to face a shortfall of approximately 570,000 caregivers by fiscal 2040, when its elderly population is expected to peak, according to welfare ministry estimates released on July 12. The estimates indicate that 2.72 million caregivers will be required in fiscal 2040, up from 2.15 million in fiscal 2022. By fiscal 2026, the need will rise to 2.4 million caregivers, resulting in a shortage of 250,000. These figures were compiled from estimates from the nation's 47 prefectural governments, including Tokyo, anticipating the need for 258,000 caregivers by fiscal 2040, compared to 182,000 in fiscal 2022. The projected nationwide shortage for fiscal 2040 is smaller than a previous estimate from fiscal 2021, which anticipated a need for 2.8 million caregivers.

Welfare ministry officials said the percentage of elderly people certified as "requiring long-term care" fell due to efforts to prevent long-term frailty and that the estimated number of required caregivers declined as a result. Even so, Japan is not out of the woods as it faces severe labor shortages. According to estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research and other sources, the productive-age population, or those between 15 and 64, will decline from 73.95 million in 2023 to 62.13 million in 2040. The number of elderly people aged 65 or older is estimated to increase from 36.23 million to 39.28 million over the same period.

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Given the tumbling yen, Nikkei argues that replacing these workers will pose a challenge:

Paywall alert:

Japan is really facing a serious caregiver shortage in the coming years. According to recent data, they're projected to need 2.72 million caregivers by 2040, up from 2.15 million in 2022 — that's a shortfall of around 570,000 caregivers by the time their elderly population peaks.

This issue was also discussed in an article (source), which explains how Japan is actively addressing the labor gap through the Specified Skilled Worker (SSW) program. It's a great opportunity for foreign workers, especially those with caregiving backgrounds or those willing to undergo training.