Politics Japan’s opposition parties seek to align policies to form new government

• The LDP has been thrust into a delicate negotiating phase after losing its partner Komeito. Today, Mrs Takaichi met the leaders of the CDPJ, the DPFP, and the JIP. But three opposition leaders also held an hour-long meeting at the Diet building in the afternoon. No conclusion was reached regarding the Diet vote for prime minister, but they said they would continue discussions.
• Yesterday, Mrs Takaichi described herself as a "woman who might not become prime minister." "I'm the unfortunate Sanae Takaichi, who has become president of the LDP but who is said to be 'a woman who might not become prime minister,'" she told participants at a lecture.
• Saito Tetsuo, the Komeito leader, declared in an interview with Asahi that his party would have stayed in coalition with PM Ishiba at the helm.

Ishin no Kai delivered a list of policy demands – most prominently its demand for establishing "auxiliary capital" functions in Osaka, elevating it to a metropolis in the process – and is committed to continuing discussions with the LDP. Ishin no Kai is emerging as the key player in the race between the LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) to form a government; if the LDP can convince Ishin no Kai to vote for Takaichi, it will be difficult for the opposition to top Takaichi's vote.

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The negotiations have not been without friction. Ishin no Kai has had to accept that the LDP will not commit to reducing the consumption tax on foodstuffs to zero, a pledge from Ishin no Kai's upper house manifesto. The party has also had to yield on its demand for a ban on corporate political donations, which would be virtually impossible for the LDP to accept after it parted ways with Kōmeitō over its more modest proposal for restricting political contributions. However, Ishin no Kai has instead demanded that the LDP accept its longstanding proposal for a ten-per cent reduction in the number of Diet members and commit to moving it through the Diet during the forthcoming session. Of course, the party also expects that the LDP will support its "auxiliary capital" plan and a proposal to reduce social insurance premiums. The demand for the reduction in the number of legislators has been met with scepticism from within the LDP, but was accepted by the party leadership. However, hammering out the details could be contentious. Meanwhile, the LDP's Osaka chapter is anxious about the implications of a coalition with Ishin no Kai for its electoral fortunes, though there have been no details about whether and how the two parties will coordinate electorally; LDP Secretary-General Suzuki Shunichi sought to provide reassurance when he met with Matsukawa Rui, the acting head of the Osaka LDP, on Friday. Nevertheless, despite Ishin no Kai's misgivings – and its own leaders' warnings that a coalition could prove fatal to the party – there appears to be little standing in the way of the two parties concluding a coalition agreement before the Diet votes next week on the next prime minister. The parties are aiming to finalise an agreement on Monday, 20 October.

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Lothor said:

I'm not sure if this is technically a missed opportunity by the opposition. I assume that, as the largest party, the LDP gets the first choice to form a government. That's how it works in the UK, but I could be wrong with Japan.

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