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Is the SCO a threat to Japan?

European Union

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SCO​


What is the SCO
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was founded on the grounds of regional cooperation, particularly between China and Russia with 3 key energy producing Central Asian states. The Chinese and Russians promised that it wouldn't be a military alliance aimed at any particular state, group or organization. However in 2007 those countries had joint military games coined "Peace Mission 2007". The title couldn't be any more ironic. Most analysts agree that this was aimed at Taiwan or possible even Japan. Since one of the imaginary missions was to invade an island. It is no secret that there are some territorial tensions between Japan and China over some islands which promise a wealth in resources.


Future enlargement of SCO
Pakista, India and Iran have observer status. There are currently 6 members of SCO. On 24th March, 2008, Iran applied for membership of SCO. India is also likely to join in the near future, due to fears arch-foe Pakistan may join first.


How Democratic and Peaceful is the SCO?
India and China both are ranked amongst some of the most corrupt countries on the planet. I believe India is 74th and China 73rd. Both rank poorly on the peace index and so does Russia. With Iran eventually becoming a member, a disaster is more than likely to be waiting for all people of Asia, not only Japan. With SCO in power, much of Central Asia's people and energy will be in the hands of the corrupt.


Japan?
What's the future of Japan in your opinion? I would say, not very good. Japan has no powerful military and even if it did, it couldn't dare to touch SCO ever. Japan has only soft power and no hard power. How long can Japan's soft power approach with an increasingly powerful China and SCO? How long can Japan support the soft power approach with declining economic future? What's awaiting Japan?
 
Well..............

Japan could always become the 51st state in the US. We can call it Hawaii's big sister.

Uncle Frank

 
I doubt India even if it joins this organization it won't take part in an attack to certain country except for Pakistan. Indians and qinese don't like each other as far as I'm concerned. Also Russians don't like qinese either. I doubt anyone will attack Japan soon as all the countries are intertwined depending on each other economically.
 
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It is good to see that China shake hands with Russia. As far as I know, Japanese don't care any development outside Japan. So please do not think of Japan but move ahead for development of militaristic alliance.
Plus, I would like to extend my sincerest gratitude to the efforts that you put for consideration about the future of Japan.

But you better worry about the future of yourself.
 



It is true that Russians and Indians don't like the Chinese. I fully agree with you, but why do Russians and Chinese join in the first place? The purpose is to control the Central Asian resources. Do you know the saying, "Necessity makes for strange bed fellows." It means, that even though you usually will not be friends with that person, you will be friends with that person as long as you need each other. If those 4 countries, China, India, Iran and Russia formed an alliance, beyond just military needs, it would trully be a disaster for the world and not just Japan.


As for an attack on Japan, this might not necessarily be true. They might not invade Japan. However, they may threaten or bully Japan. Let me give you an example. In 1979 China waged war on Vietnam and was defeated horribly. Since those times the Chinese economy bloomed and the Chinese army modernized. In the year 2000 the Chinese forced the Vietnamese to cede territory. In other words, Vietnam gave land to China.


How does this relate to Japan? Imagine a super powerful alliance by those countries, right next to Japan. Can you tell me this won't effect Japan in any way? Japan has only soft power in its diplomatic relations around Asia. With such a powerful alliance competing with Japan in terms of resources, diplomacy and favours, does Japan stand any chance what so ever on its own? Can Japan alone continue to compete with SCO, an alliance which currently holds over 1.6 billion people and if Iran and India join it will be close to 3 billion people. This is known as real politics.
 



Japanese people themselves may not be very interested in politics. This is normal for any people's nations. Most people watch the news a bit and don't understand anything that is really going on. However, Japanese politicians and realists must trully worry about what is going on outside of Japan. This is known as politics.


This is "Politics", with regards to Japan. Japanese really don't care any outside development of Japan? What about North Korea? Japanese politicians seem to care very much about this issue. An alliance far more powerful and dangerous than North Korea should be a bigger worry, don't you agree? Maybe just not enough Japanese people know about the SCO. Also, when China tested a nuclear weapon in 1964, did the Japenese people and politicians care about that? This is development outside of Japan. Think about it careful. Japan's future is on line. If the Japanese are not careful and quick enough to act, it might be all too late some day. Opportunity waits for no one.
 
The global political awakening
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/16/opinion/YEbrzezinski.php


Japan could always become the 51st state in the US. We can call it Hawaii's big sister.
Click to expand...

I think At present, Japanese Government seems not to want to contribute to the multipolarization of the world.

Japan is sure to think that they would rather hold out than subordinate to China so as not to be defeated by China.

After the United States hegemony declines, it is interested in the discussion of Japan and China.

This recession frees the Japanese from subordination of U.S. and leads to political awakening
 
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Report reveals pension schemes will collapse
Report reveals pension schemes will collapse
A geostrategy for Eurasia by Zbigniew Brzezinski
A geostrategy for Eurasia by Zbigniew Brzezinski
I think Japan is looking at the situation of the world most careful ..
It is natural for the exporting country to know that.
It is necessary to get to know them well to do business.
And, it is pretended not to know anything because Japan doesn't want to be related...
all we know it is possible to become a big conversion since the defeat for Japan, and a political chance comes by the United States hegemony declines.
After Korea shoots the missile into Japan, it is not late either.
the Japanese will awake by realizing the mistake...
http://www.wisdom96.com/setsugen/shiryou/koumin/KENPOU/ZENBUN2.HTML

everbody can guess it afterwards
I think both china and russian know who joker is or who the best for the ally is from past.
that is why china is always bashing japan
 
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From the Japanese perspective, strange neighbours are ruining themselves.
So the best is just sitting out.

History clearly indicates the period of "national isolation" before Meiji Revolution was the most peaceful times of Japan. I don't say Japan better be closed off to the world, but Japan should keep distance from strange neighbours as well as strangers who knock the door of Japan. When strangers call us ..... it must be a sign of bad luck, I believe. So please leave us alone.
 
I hate to talk about other country's policies, since I'm not proud of mine either.
caster51 said:
After the United States hegemony declines, it is interested in the discussion of Japan and China.
Click to expand...
But I'm glad there are Japanese like caster51. Like many people and the current economic crisis, nations too have to adapt to the changing paradigms on all fronts, be it economic, politics, security, environmental, etc. The Cold War ended long ago and the world is not exactly unipolar anymore, therefore the age-old mentality of "us" vs "them" have to go. Anyway, these are just my opinion:

Japan, long aware of its awkward position between the West and the East, has in fact been putting substantial effort to better relations with past foes through economic participation as well as cultural exchanges at the ministerial levels lately -albeit more needs to be done, as current efforts are still close to being "immaterial" with regards to what Japan actually needs to do. Currently, Japan treats most of the countries in Asia as empty spaces with resources to provide infrastructural aids to and then lure Japanese contractors/suppliers (who are mostly making loss outside Japan) with export credit incentives to take back that aid money, thereby giving Japan a better international trade balance sheet at year end and also securing advantageous trade deals. (China's doing that with Africa) Japan needs to take up a more active role in facing its past (I'm afraid they're not in the position to say "let bygones be bygones" as well as engaging more rigorously and sincerely in regional cooperations - to play a key role in the political and social development of its Asian neighbors. Not just providing aids, which I see as a very much "Let them eat cake" attitude. Financial aids, monbusho, jasso, and going around spreading Japanese culture one-sidedly to create these "japanophiles" is simply not quite enough.

I believe foreign policies like Abe's India policy can provide the fundamentals necessary for Japan to gain from her emerging neighbors.. or at the very least, maintain her presence/relevance in the region for the years to come. China, however, remains Japan's true goal. Reconcile with China, show your sincerity, take a key role to maintain good relationship between China and US- as uncle Sam too will need to adapt to this change. Once you do this, North Korea will be pressured to give in to your demands. Can Japan bow to China?

In the end, it all comes down to the Japanese people. If history has taught them anything, peace and prosperity (with its current economic demands = not possible) from isolation is only at best temporary. Most importantly though, Japan don't need any more wars, this game of taking sides and acting snobbish with immediate neighbors is only going to get them exactly there. Will they be able to see beyond their immediate domestic grievances and understand the importance of choosing a leader with sound international policies? Can they brush off their unfounded pride and lower themselves to walk shoulder to shoulder with their neighbors? I have my reservations, as people tend to only react profoundly when it's already too late.

By the way, why would anyone think China-India-Russia are not on good terms?
 



I think you are basing your analysis on a bit of ignorance of Japanese and Chinese history. China also often, but not always, pursued a policy of isolation. Chinese internal warfare, strife and civil wars always continued. Japan, the same as China, always internal civil wars. Samurai class came up not to defend from foreigners, but to kill each other. If Japan would not have joined the west, you probably would still have Samurai's running around killing each other and the occasional peasantry for payments in rice. If Japan wants to isolate herself, go ahead and see what happens to your economy. Look at China in the beginning since 1949. People's annual salary was 200 USD. Do you want to give up your exporting industry? Your cars and other modern gadgets? If yes, then please go ahead and isolate yourself. If no, then please face reality.
 

"if" there is no such things in history.
what happend in philipine?


I think isolation policy is not bad for Japan
I do not understand why a lot of countries have the fantasy too much in China.
Japan should look at China from a long distance.
 
If China is going to follow the path of economic progress, Japan will lose its status as a 2nd largest economy. That is a given and the question is when, not if. Japan has been an odd man out in Asia and I think its economic prowess will be eroded in a few decades as it will lose its productivity edge (how much can you count on the productivity from senior citizens?). Its aging population will be the final nail in the coffin.
 

Japan is still crowded.
there are so many needy here
china is still Assembly hall.
I think Japan's GDP may decline.
however GDP/ person may increase.
china did also one child policy...
This evil practice comes some time.

Japan will lose its status as a 2nd largest economy
Click to expand...
who cares? Japan is not competing.
 
hey.. as long as japan still makes great anime and games, i'm cool.
 
caster51 said:
who cares? Japan is not competing.
Click to expand...
I think it cares about its ranking as its only national pride would be the economic might. Also, losing that status means it is losing its mojo.
 
I think it cares about its ranking as its only national pride would be the economic might. Also, losing that status means it is losing its mojo
Click to expand...

National pride? I have never heard about that?
it is useless..
 
caster51 said:
National pride? I have never heard about that?
it is useless..
Click to expand...

Maybe Japanese have pride but rather prefer not to admit it to not compare themselves with their neighbor countries who show occasional ugly demonstrations of nationalism. If not they wouldn't be proud of Mao Asada, Baseball NT, Toyota etc...
 
If not they wouldn't be proud of Mao Asada, Baseball NT, Toyota etc...
Click to expand...

there is no relatives who is workinfg for Toyota.
I dont care at all
Mao asada, i am not interested in skating.
however it is grad to hear winning in some competition as a Japanese..

2nd largest economy.??
I am a poor. Even if such a thing is compared, it is not significant for me.

does most foreigners misunderstanding the Japanese mind basicaly?
of course,It is glad that the Japanese is doing well ..
however, why does it become national pride?
national pride is not such a thing for the Japanese

I think the Japanese does not have a pride like the Korean pride.
there is no topics here about Toyota, mao asada mansei....
who cares?
Even if Nobel prize was taken, it was unrelated.
because they are not my relatives..
 
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Ok, then. .
 
Everyone here should a bit further than just at thing like national pride. Think about, what does Japan have as foreign policy tools. Just soft power, culture and economy. However, an alliance between India, China and Russia alone, not including all other Central Asian energy resource rich countries, would spell doom for Japan. Have any of you studied how Japan conducts business interests in Asia?


Japanese Foreign Policy
Japan has for decades relied to maintain its interests by using the soft approach through aid to achieve strategic and commercial goals. However, since Japan's economy is shrinking, it is a well known fact Japan's global reach and influence will weaken. China is already doing around the world what Japan used to do with aid. However, China doesn't provide aid, just more commercial agreements. Now, you have China, India and Russia, together those economies dwarf Japan and while those continue to grow, Japan will continue to slow down and eventually shrink.


Japan cannot protect its interests
Japan is finished, it's as simple as that. In an desperate effort to somehow protect Japanese national interests, there was talk of an alliance between Japan, Australia, India and the USA. This was under the John Howard years, back in 2007. However, ever since Chinese speaking and China friendly Kevin Rudd took office over from Howard, the idea of this grand alliance was shelved. Japan's regional interests and security has ever since been jepordized. And to believe America will be able to protect Japan forever is ridiculous.


America is dead
America will be brought to its knees under the Obama administration. That young fool proposes to have tax on capital when there is a serious global capital shortage. He also wants to increase protectionism. If those 2 policies are introduced, it will mark the end of America. Warren Buffet, American and richest man in the world, has already said that China is what America used to be and used to do. Chinese people are harder working than Americans and they are buying more American debt and more American companies. Jim Rogers, investor of the century, who founded the Quantum Fund together with George Soros, stated that the end of America came in 2007. He has since moved to Singapore and his daughters are learning Chinese.


Where does this leave Japan?
In the dark at best. Japan relies on the USA to back it up and look after its interest. This is likely not to happen, Americans are just looking after their own interests. The hopeful alliance Japan hoped for is not going to happen. Then there is Japan's ever shrinking economy, while China's, Russia's and India's economy still have a lot of potential. With Japan's shrinking economy comes weaker soft power, while the soft and hard power of the SCO will continue to grow. When USA finally fails, the question is when and not if, Japan will be all alone in Asia. Unable to effectively pursue her interest and unable to effectively defend itself (or its interests), Japan will further decline in relevance.
The question is, what can Japan do? Bow to China as some people here suggested? Bow to Russia, China and India together? Become a junior partner to those countries?
 
Japanese Foreign Policy
As far as I know, Japan does not have foreign policy. In other words, Japan has a policy not to have foreign policy.

Japan cannot protect its interests
Thank you for your consideration, but interest rate is already "ZERO" here.

America is dead
I don't care.

Where does this leave Japan?
Japan remain unchanged, keeping distance from strangers.


Good Luck & A Happy New Year to "European Union"
 
European Union said:
However, an alliance between India, China and Russia alone, not including all other Central Asian energy resource rich countries, would spell doom for Japan. Have any of you studied how Japan conducts business interests in Asia?
Click to expand...
The natural resources are not the sole measure of the economic viability. Past economic powers have used industrialization and technology to convert the raw materials to the finished products. On the contrary, the natural resource rich countries tend to catch Dutch disease.

With its increasing number of aging population, Japan will be on the path of economic decline. But, China is still the wild card. As long as it pursue its current 2-system approach (capitalism and communism) and maintain its economic progress, China will be a superpower in AP. Russia and India need to go thorough the massive structural shake up before they can become the economic power. Especially India is plagued with so many red tapes stifling its manufacturing base to death. Russia's economy is based on oil and gas (raw materials).


I don't think Obama is going to revert to the protectionism. What's the source for that news?
Capital gain taxes? Obama is not going to increase taxes. The tax reductions signed into law by GWB will expire in 2010, however.
Hard working workers and productive workers are totally different things. To make workers productive, they need to be sufficiently educated and skilled in their trades. There are lots of unskilled laborers in China.
 
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