- 5 May 2013
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At what scale, in what time frame, of what causes?I'm not sure at what point your definition of "terrible death toll" is triggered. 100? 1000? 10000?
156,164 people die every day, on average, of all possible causes spread around the world. That's much larger than any of your suggested numbers. But nobody is upset about it. They may be upset about individuals that they know, but not about the normal, average deaths that happen to 150,000+ strangers around the world every day.
189 is a much smaller number, but most people would consider Lion Air Flight 610 an very tragic event with a terrible death toll... because 100% of those people died all at the same time, of the same cause, when the expected death rate during a flight is ... well, not literally zero, but less than one person, never mind one percent.
If you double the death rate in city of 2.99 million for one day, it's 0.27%. Three days and you haven't even increased the annual death rate by 1%.
That's why I don't see it as a terrible death toll yet. It's tragic for the affected individuals, of course, but statistically, it's not much different from normal.
On the other hand, if that same deathrate keeps up for 100 days, that's a 27% increase in the annual death rate. For a full year, then, of course, double the annual deathrate for a full year is exactly double, which is a very dramatic increase.
That includes the deaths from the first day... are those deaths more tragic because the total grew, or less tragic if it doesn't? It seems strange to treat it that way, but that's exactly how we do normally treat it -- if a fraction of a percent of the average annual death rate is all it takes to be a terrible tragedy, then we are ignoring terrible tragedies constantly.
That's also why the article is frustrating: it keeps quoting numbers of diagnoses and deaths here and there, without giving background except that one population figure for one city they discuss. Numbers over what time period? Number over what population? Numbers compared to what normal rates?
If you tell me a thousand people died and ask if it's a tragedy... for all I know, with no other information, that could be the number of people that died worldwide of natural causes on a miraculously below-average death rate day, or it could be the entire population of a small town buried by a volcano. Context is absolutely essential to understand the meaning of the raw numbers.
No, it's not clear at all. It's not clear what it is that you're referring to here, actually.If it's to the point where they have to put bodies in the streets, it's clear that it's very bad.
You could have exactly the normal average deathrate, but if nobody collects the bodies... well, the deathrate isn't very bad, it's exactly normal and average. The situation on the other hand, clearly is very bad. No society should be leaving bodies in the street.
In the actual case in question, I believe it's the situation, not the deaths, that is the serious problem. But, I only did some simple math on one city mentioned in the article.
Oh. I just realized I made a terrible error with my math.
"National figures show that Ecuador's authorities have collected more than 300 bodies from private homes in the city -- which has 2.99 million residents, according to the CIA Factbook -- between March 23-30."
That's 300 bodies over a week, not 300 deaths in a day. That's less then the expected death rate for a week even at first world life expectancy. Without knowing how many other deaths there are, and how many of them normally take place at home we don't know anything, actually. From that article, we have no information about whether or not more people are dying than usual.
We can guess they likely are, it is a pandemic after all, but that article doesn't tell us anything statistically meaningful for all its numbers.
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