COVID-19 Coronavirus: global situation

I'm not sure at what point your definition of "terrible death toll" is triggered. 100? 1000? 10000?
At what scale, in what time frame, of what causes?

156,164 people die every day, on average, of all possible causes spread around the world. That's much larger than any of your suggested numbers. But nobody is upset about it. They may be upset about individuals that they know, but not about the normal, average deaths that happen to 150,000+ strangers around the world every day.

189 is a much smaller number, but most people would consider Lion Air Flight 610 an very tragic event with a terrible death toll... because 100% of those people died all at the same time, of the same cause, when the expected death rate during a flight is ... well, not literally zero, but less than one person, never mind one percent.

If you double the death rate in city of 2.99 million for one day, it's 0.27%. Three days and you haven't even increased the annual death rate by 1%.

That's why I don't see it as a terrible death toll yet. It's tragic for the affected individuals, of course, but statistically, it's not much different from normal.

On the other hand, if that same deathrate keeps up for 100 days, that's a 27% increase in the annual death rate. For a full year, then, of course, double the annual deathrate for a full year is exactly double, which is a very dramatic increase.

That includes the deaths from the first day... are those deaths more tragic because the total grew, or less tragic if it doesn't? It seems strange to treat it that way, but that's exactly how we do normally treat it -- if a fraction of a percent of the average annual death rate is all it takes to be a terrible tragedy, then we are ignoring terrible tragedies constantly.

That's also why the article is frustrating: it keeps quoting numbers of diagnoses and deaths here and there, without giving background except that one population figure for one city they discuss. Numbers over what time period? Number over what population? Numbers compared to what normal rates?

If you tell me a thousand people died and ask if it's a tragedy... for all I know, with no other information, that could be the number of people that died worldwide of natural causes on a miraculously below-average death rate day, or it could be the entire population of a small town buried by a volcano. Context is absolutely essential to understand the meaning of the raw numbers.

If it's to the point where they have to put bodies in the streets, it's clear that it's very bad.
No, it's not clear at all. It's not clear what it is that you're referring to here, actually.

You could have exactly the normal average deathrate, but if nobody collects the bodies... well, the deathrate isn't very bad, it's exactly normal and average. The situation on the other hand, clearly is very bad. No society should be leaving bodies in the street.

In the actual case in question, I believe it's the situation, not the deaths, that is the serious problem. But, I only did some simple math on one city mentioned in the article.

Oh. I just realized I made a terrible error with my math.

"National figures show that Ecuador's authorities have collected more than 300 bodies from private homes in the city -- which has 2.99 million residents, according to the CIA Factbook -- between March 23-30."

That's 300 bodies over a week, not 300 deaths in a day. That's less then the expected death rate for a week even at first world life expectancy. Without knowing how many other deaths there are, and how many of them normally take place at home we don't know anything, actually. From that article, we have no information about whether or not more people are dying than usual.

We can guess they likely are, it is a pandemic after all, but that article doesn't tell us anything statistically meaningful for all its numbers.
 
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At what scale, in what time frame, of what causes?
We were talking about this city in Ecuador.
That's why I don't see it as a terrible death toll yet. It's tragic for the affected individuals, of course, but statistically, it's not much different from normal.
So you're saying your definition is based on some measure of statistical significance. Well we can come back in a year's time to check if the death rate is above 1sigma of normal and decide then I guess. Even then you will need to decide what to compare it to (annual rates, monthly rates, etc.)
That includes the deaths from the first day... are those deaths more tragic because the total grew, or less tragic if it doesn't? It seems strange to treat it that way, but that's exactly how we do normally treat it -- if a fraction of a percent of the average annual death rate is all it takes to be a terrible tragedy, then we are ignoring terrible tragedies constantly.
I didn't say anything about what is tragic or what isn't. Naturally the more people affected, the bigger the scale of the calamity.
I'm not sure if minimizing what is happening by averaging it into annual rates useful. This is like a tsunami.
And like a tsunami, this is a brand new illness with zero victims last year. So every death from it is notable in that respect.
If you tell me a thousand people died and ask if it's a tragedy... for all I know, with no other information, that could be the number of people that died worldwide of natural causes on a miraculously below-average death rate day, or it could be the entire population of a small town buried by a volcano. Context is absolutely essential to understand the meaning of the raw numbers.
We were talking about Ecuador. I will wager to say that 100+ deaths a day for a sustained period is above normal for that city.
I don't know if leaving bodies on the street is unprecedented but it seems likely.
No, it's not clear at all. It's not clear what it is that you're referring to here, actually.

You could have exactly the normal average deathrate, but if nobody collects the bodies... well, the deathrate isn't very bad, it's exactly normal and average. The situation on the other hand, clearly is very bad. No society should be leaving bodies in the street.

In the actual case in question, I believe it's the situation, not the deaths, that is the serious problem.
The "it" I was referring to was the total circumstances not the death rate. And, again, we were talking about Ecuador.
 
So you're saying your definition is based on some measure of statistical significance.

Is yours not? If not, aren't the thousands that die every die of natural causes a terrible death toll? If not, why not?

This is like a tsunami.
And like a tsunami, this is a brand new illness with zero victims last year. So every death from it is notable in that respect.
It doesn't kill in a single incident like a tsunami. Neither coronavirus nor viral pneumonia, nor even coronavirus caused viral pneumonia are new. This particular coronavirus is a variety we aren't immune to, so sure, it's new in some sense. But there are new viruses constantly. Statistical significance -- a higher infection rate, higher hospitalization rate, higher mortality rate -- are the only thing that make it stand out as a special event any different from background rates of illness.

If statistical significance is irrelevant, then every cold strain that can cause pneumonia and every flu season are equally tragic. Those viral strains are sometimes new to the human race, and always new to the individuals afflicted -- otherwise they would already be immune.

I will wager to say that 100+ deaths a day for a sustained period is above normal for that city.

Okay, let's do the math again, with actual life expectancy for Ecuador, 76.33 years.

2.99 million persons / (76.33 x 365.25 days) = 107.25 persons/day

No, in fact, 100+ deaths a day is perfectly normal.

Which is precisely why throwing all those numbers around without reference is a problem. We don't know, without doing independent research and appropriate math what the numbers actually mean.
 
Is yours not? If not, aren't the thousands that die every die of natural causes a terrible death toll? If not, why not?
"terrible" is relative. I don't need to make back of the envelope calculations to see that something's terribly amiss.
It doesn't kill in a single incident like a tsunami. Neither coronavirus nor viral pneumonia, nor even coronavirus caused viral pneumonia are new. This particular coronavirus is a variety we aren't immune to, so sure, it's new in some sense. But there are new viruses constantly. Statistical significance -- a higher infection rate, higher hospitalization rate, higher mortality rate -- are the only thing that make it stand out as a special event any different from background rates of illness.
It's very much like a tsunami. It's a single incident on a weeks/months timescale. And like a tsunami that crosses the pacific, each locale it hits is following a similar pattern.
This particular pathogen is new and nothing we've seen in our lifetimes. Yes the effects are what makes it stand out from others.
The fact that there are dozens or hundreds of viruses very similar to this one doesn't change the novel characteristics of this one.
If statistical significance is irrelevant, then every cold strain that can cause pneumonia and every flu season are equally tragic. Those viral strains are sometimes new to the human race, and always new to the individuals afflicted -- otherwise they would already be immune.
I didn't say they were irrelevant. I'm saying I don't need statistics to inform me whether something is tragic or not.
Okay, let's do the math again, with actual life expectancy for Ecuador, 76.33 years.

2.99 million persons / (76.33 x 365.25 days) = 107.25 persons/day

No, in fact, 100+ deaths a day is perfectly normal.

Which is precisely why throwing all those numbers around without reference is a problem. We don't know, without doing independent research and appropriate math what the numbers actually mean.
Or we can look at the evidence in front of us and see that something is f'd up. Clearly whatever locality was getting hit the hardest is overwhelmed. Clearly it's statistically significant for that area unless you're saying that their infrastucture is so poor they can't handle a little blip above average which seems unlikely. Averaging it out over the greater metropolitan area doesn't change the fact.
 
Or we can look at the evidence in front of us and see that something is f'd up. Clearly whatever locality was getting hit the hardest is overwhelmed. Clearly it's statistically significant for that area unless you're saying that their infrastucture is so poor they can't handle a little blip above average which seems unlikely.

Why is it unlikely? Ecuador is a poor country with a corrupt political system that has spent years under austerity measures. The ex-president as just convicted on corruption charges The current government was literally driven out of the capital and is now actually operating in Guayaquil (the city in question).

Ecuador's former president found guilty of corruption

I don't know how bad their infrastructure is, or how bad their coronavirus is, or how ineffective their government is. That's the point. The article is telling me how bad the coranavirus is, and throwing out lots of numbers to show that it is the cause of all problems. But those numbers don't support their story, they don't support any story. It would have been a better article if it honestly presented itself as a human drama editorial piece and didn't throw around numbers pretending to be evidence-based journalism.

That there are (were) bodies in the streets tells me government isn't doing its job. The reasons for that are unclear and no actual evidence is given for any underlying causes. Only numbers that are meaningless by themselves that are presented as if they were evidence.

Well. It does seem likely to me though, on reflection, that they will see significant deaths: because their infrastructure is terrible, their hospitals are unable to cope with the demand. If you don't treat people, the mortality rate will be considerably higher. Whether they are seeing significant deaths yet is a complete unknown, however, at least based on that article.

Anyway, my point is the article is badly written.

I'm not sure if your point is that I'm not showing the right emotions or if you think I'm trying to stop you from feeling emotions. You can feel whatever you want. It would be surprising if you didn't react: the article was calculated to provoke reaction.

It's not as if I didn't respond emotionally to the article as well, it's just that reading all those numbers I also felt the article was being manipulative, trying to look more authoritative and evidence-based than it actually was with numbers that didn't actually add meaning but only the appearance of meaning. Call me old-fashioned, but I like my evidence based news to be objective and evidence based. There's room for human drama pieces in reporting, they just shouldn't masquerade as objective reporting.
 
I am not going to claim to be an expert on the situation with medical supply stockpiles, however, this is another fine example of why I so often insist on direct quotes in the face of "journalists" making claims about what people said.

Even John Oliver, whom I greatly respect, tore Jared Kushner a new orifice for saying "And the notion of the federal stockpile is its supposed to be our stockpile.", and Oliver took that right out of context and made it out to mean that states are not meant to get any of it ever. But immediately before saying that Kushner said " ...you have instances where in cities they're running out but the state still has a stockpile."

So clearly he meant the federal stockpile is our COLLECTIVE stockpile meant to be accessed AFTER a state has exhausted its own, not for a state to use before it actually even needs it...at the expense of other states' potential future need.

John Oliver really disappointed me. But of course, for all other journalists, its just business as usual.

Kushner is here:



And John Oliver ripping into him is here (language alert for those weak of heart)

 
Now that we humans are engaging with a dangerous and deathly virus namely Corona I found a way that can destroy the virus completely from the earth.

The alternative is seen in the picture:


800wm-jfif.webp


We need an asteroid to be big enough and impact the earth. It is not important where it hits, but the important issue is that it is a huge one to heat the atmosphere enough.

But the only problem of the plan is that, there is a probability that we humans are destroyed along with the virus! So I don't recommend such the big asteroid that is in the picture. I think it was better the painter who drew the asteroid, chose a smaller one. It is in size of the moon and I don't think such the big stone exists in the solar system!

For eliminating the corona virus we need a suitable asteroid that neither is very big nor very small, and if not, there will not be any guarantee about life on the earth and most likely the earth becomes something similar to the Mars.

And if the asteroid is small, then the problem will become twin! From one side corona virus and from another side global warming that some people will hold meeting versus it (especially in the condition of the social distance rule)!

Despite I recommend this alternative, nonetheless I reject the choice of the painter of the picture who chose a stone in size of the moon!
Because the asteroid that we expect should have an accurate weight and size (based on the scientific and mathematics calculations) that neither be small and ineffective nor split the earth into two half sphere ( at present we have two half sphere and don't need anymore).

Any other idea that can root up Coronavirus from the world is appreciated :)
 
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We need an asteroid to be big enough and impact the earth. It is not important where it hits, but the important issue is that it is a huge one to heat the atmosphere enough.

But the only problem of the plan is that, there is a probability that we humans are destroyed along with the virus! So I don't recommend such the big asteroid that is in the picture. I think it was better the painter who drew the asteroid, chose a smaller one. It is in size of the moon and I don't think such the big stone exists in the solar system!

For eliminating the corona virus we need a suitable asteroid that neither is very big nor very small, and if not, there will not be any guarantee about life on the earth and most likely the earth becomes something similar to the Mars.

And if the asteroid is small, then the problem will become twin! From one side corona virus and from another side global warming that some people will hold meeting versus it (especially in the condition of the social distance rule)!

Despite I recommend this alternative, nonetheless I reject the choice of the painter of the picture who chose a stone in size of the moon!
Because the asteroid that we expect should have an accurate weight and size (based on the scientific and mathematics calculations) that neither be small and ineffective nor split the earth into two half sphere ( at present we have two half sphere and don't need anymore).

Any other idea that can root up Coronavirus from the world is appreciated :)
Are you joking? You must be joking. Because not only is that something that is completely out of our control, it would be like using a shotgun to get a mosquito off our face. Perhaps you should take a break from brainstorming before you turn into a James Bond villain...

The solution is developing a vaccine. Also, test aggressively both for actively sick individuals, asymptomatic carriers (people who are infected but don't feel sick), and for antibodies (people who have had it in the past and have developed a natural immunity). In the meanwhile, it's treating the sick and everyone else staying away from each other to slow the spread so it doesn't overwhelm our medical system. It's that simple*

*obviously, it's not SIMPLE, but it's what needs to be done.
 
nice gaiiin

I suppose, before the vaccine is made, the virus will make some fossils of us for the next generations! Then we will join the dinosaurs!!
 
nice gaiiin

I suppose, before the vaccine is made, the virus will make some fossils of us for the next generations! Then we will join the dinosaurs!!
90,000 and counting. Sorry but it's a little too raw for gallows humor today, I have friends in New York who are nurses and what they're experiencing is no laughing matter.
 
I actually am sorry for those people who are infected with the virus, especially those who lost their souls.

Aside from this regret, I saw in a news video, some Italians go on their houses roof top, play guitar, sing and dance! Is it an improper behavior in the season of Corona either?
 
I actually am sorry for those people who are infected with the virus, especially those who lost their souls.

Aside from this regret, I saw in a news video, some Italians go on their houses roof top, play guitar, sing and dance! Is it an improper behavior in the season of Corona either?
They are not joking about it. They are trying to foster a sense of community and keep their spirits up. That being said, humor can be a coping mechanism as well. Certainly the meme generators will keep going.
 
They are not joking about it. They are trying to foster a sense of community and keep their spirits up. That being said, humor can be a coping mechanism as well. Certainly the meme generators will keep going.
Mansoor - humour, music, conversations with loved ones you meet and trying to keep up morale are all valid ways of coping. And so is crying.
 
Well, I had the same purpose to refresh the spirits. I don't know music and dancing but can write humor occasionally. In fact my favorite writing is humor because it makes me happy.

Of course I can write in every field but write horror story less, especially at midnight in a lonely place with little light, because I sometime feel a shadow is around me and is going to capture me!

But humor writing relive my spirit. When I am writing in this genre I love to write for many hours.

However, the asteroid was a fun that I made to practice English, remove my boring and make others happy to forget Corona virus for a few minutes.

I think people prefer to die with an asteroid hit instead of dying by the damn virus. I heard, an Italian nurse committed suicide after she realized she has infected with Corona virus. She wanted to get rid the sickness sooner but sadly chose a bad remedy. If she was patient enough there was a probability that survives.

Let me I tell you one of my real dreams:

Before the Corona virus appears in woohan of China, one night I dreamed a large galaxy similar to eye appeared in the night sky. I was in a room in the second floor of a house that had a large window. In the dream, I feared of the star, left the window and went in the end of the room to see not it. In the dream I understood it was an ominous star that appeared in the sky. Afterward, some very small white and a little bright particles similar to snow crystals began raining from the sky, while there was not any cloud in the sky. Those particles sit on the branches of a tree and fell down and this process was repeated.

After I woke up I wondered of the dream and realized a public disaster is in the way. At the time I didn't know what type of disaster it was but as the star was very awful I interpreted it to a great happening.

A week later the news of the Corona virus in China was broadcasted from the world medias while at the time nobody forecast its global danger and mortality.
 
I am enjoying watching the American Imperial Forces have their little meltdown and implosion over corona on the American Imperial Navy warship Theodore Roosevelt.

Apparently Captain Corzier did not go through direct chain of command only but e-mailed all around the imp leadership for help. Then the Imperial Navy secretary Modly decided to publicly shame Captain Corona as stupid or naive on board his very own ship and then was forced to resign for doing so, particularly as Trump first supported Modly but then flip-flopped. Love it!

 
Don't know if true but smells like an open air Chinese fish market.





INTERESTING NOTES TO READ





Wuhan to Shanghai = 839km around 524miles


Wuhan to Beijing = 1,152km " 720



Wuhan to Milan = 15,000km " 9375


Wuhan to NY = 15,000km " 9375





The Coronavirus started in Wuhan yet there is no effect of Coronavirus in nearby Beijing or Shanghai but many deaths in Italy, Iran, European countries and USA.





All business areas of China are now safe.





America is not just blaming China without a reason.





Even today, India is locked down but all the cities of China are open. China has also announced the opening of Wuhan from April 08. Not a single leader in China has tested positive for the deadly Coronavirus.





The virus has ruined many economies around the world. Many have had to close their borders in an attempt to contain and control the spread of the Coronavirus. Thousands have lost their lives, millions have now got this disease, countless people have been locked in their homes and many countries have placed their citizens on lock down.





The Coronavirus orginated from the city of Wuhan in China and has now reached every corner of the world, but the virus did not reach China's capital Beijing and China's Economic Capital Shanghai, located in close proximity to Wuhan itself.





Today Paris is closed, New York is closed, Berlin is closed, Delhi is closed, Mumbai is closed, Tokyo is closed, the world's major economic and political centers are closed, but Beijing and Shanghai are open. No Coronavirus effect is seen in either cities. There were only a few cases but the virus had no real effect on Beijing and Shanghai.


Beijing is the city where all the leaders of China live, including their military leaders. There is no lock down in Beijing.





Shanghai is the city that runs China's economy. It is the economic capital of China, where all the rich people of China live and run major industries. There is no lock down here, there is no effect of the Coronavirus there.





Beijing and Shanghai are the areas adjoining Wuhan. The virus from Wuhan reached every corner of the world, but the virus did not affect Beijing and Shanghai.





Another big thing is, that the worldwide share market has fallen by almost half. In India also the Nifty has gone from 12 thousand to 7 thousand, but the share market of China was at 3000 and just merely dropped to 2700.





This leaves one to speculate that the Coronavirus is a bio-chemical weapon of China, which China used to carry out destruction in the world in order to gain economic supremacy.





China has now put this virus under control, maybe they also have the antidote/ vaccine that they are not sharing with the world ever or will do when it is in their best interest to do so.





Hollywood stars, Australia's Home Minister, Britain's Prime Minister and Health Minister,


Spain's Prime Minister's wife, Canada's Prime Minister's wife, and Britain's Prince Charles, among others,


have contracted the Coronavirus, but NOT A SINGLE POLITICAL LEADER IN CHINA,


NOT A SINGLE MILITARY COMMANDER in China have tested positive for Coronavirus.





*SOMETHING IS FISHY!!!!*
 
A good news. It is told whoever is infected by Corona virus If he survive, he will be safe against this disease for about one year! It does mean he who infected with this virus he will not get the sickness until the next year. It is a good opportunity because it is likely the doctors who are researching and working on the unknown virus probably can discover a vaccine for this disease, though some experts believe it will take long more than a year.

Apart from the disappointing opinion of the pessimistic experts, if those researchers work faster and more agile there is a spot light of hope in the future that they can produce the vaccine just during this years or maximum two years later.

All the medical laboratories in the world are working with connect to each other to discover the vaccine and also find out some effective medicines versus this small troll that most likely was transferred from animals to humans. so I recommend people to kick back their dogs and throw them out from their houses for a while until this virus is eliminated from the world, though I know they will never do this and pat their pets so and allow them to go everywhere in their house even in the kitchen and refrigerator.

If there was an international microphone I would shout in it by all my soul (just like Hitler) so that all people of the world hear my speech clearly, " Stay at home and observe the social distance". Wash you hands with soap and use hygiene mask ( N95 and N99 is better than all, but breathing with them is a little difficult ) and glove. Don't cough and don't sneeze unless use a handkerchief , Kleenex or inevitably your coat sleeve!

If you felt you have infected with corona virus, submit yourself to police to carry you to hospital immediately because hospital is so much better than cemetery.

Wash vegetables and fruits and put them in the sunshine in back of the windows gasses (this is my personal offer).

Instead of using western toilet that the user seat on it like a chair, use middle east toilet that doesn't touch your legs. As western toilet touch your body firmly it can be a risk that bacteria and viruses pollute your skin, especially in the public toilets.

Try to eat invigorating foods at home and don't go to restaurants and fast food shops. Don't drink wine beer and similar alcoholic drinks. These liquids weaken the body defensive system and create disorder in its normality. As far as I know, when western people fry meat in the pan try the middle of the meat remain crude and raw. They don't fry the meats in a longer time. This type of cooking is not safe, because the middle of the meat is raw and a suitable place for harmful microorganisms.

However, be careful about your health

Thank you that you read my comment completely


I couldn't edit my writing because all the night till this noon I was awaken and now I have to sleep , if there are some errors in my writing (that always are) excuse me :)
 
Don't know if true but smells like an open air Chinese fish market.

*SOMETHING IS FISHY!!!!*

Yeah. However, my problem is the quick desire to pin the blame on China, as if the U.S. government and CIA would or could be beyond anything that could be behind this.

Can you even imagine what a war with China could do for Trump's reputation now and in future history books? I mean, look at how the Bush admin was pinning 9/11 blame on Iraq along with various other manufactured excuses for war and so many people 1) completely bought it 2) silently thought it was ridiculous or 3) opened their mouths a bit but otherwise did nothing to stop war with Iraq. And they completely got away with it.

And I am not even saying I think there is a grand conspiracy just that its shocking and annoying how people can think there is one while not being able to think of any other but "Its got to be the Chinese". There are lots of ways various companies and individuals can and are profiting from all this.

I think there are are lot of oddities concerning the situation, but I can think of other possibilities besides conspiracy. For example the lack of smaller cities and towns with overwhelmed systems....are big cities just giant petri dishes perhaps?
 
It looks liked we've finally peaked. Here are the numbers in my community.

0752D651-7EB0-428B-BE20-5896A858A92F.jpeg


First official case was just one month ago.
6F068146-429D-470D-92C9-B77E841ECBA0.jpeg
 
One of the AIN guys from the Theodore Roosevelt warship died. And I am only allowed to voice one opinion on that so I shall voice no opinion on that.



It's weird that I see ABC pumping up the good news about China when in fact we all know it total BS.
So whats up with ABC. Not that I ever watch it . But I remember ABC was pro-American. Or is it because the CEO is a foreigner with dual-citizenship and is anti-American?
 
Some things have changed in the two weeks since this was printed. For example, Sweden's death toll is now much higher than Norway even though the infection numbers are still stable in terms of Sweden having double the population and double the infected. However, it is reported in the article that Sweden is not testing so much.

But this is pretty much what I have recommended: those at greater risk should guard themselves.

 
It's weird that I see ABC pumping up the good news about China when in fact we all know it total BS.
So whats up with ABC. Not that I ever watch it . But I remember ABC was pro-American. Or is it because the CEO is a foreigner with dual-citizenship and is anti-American?

You read this: "— DECLINES IN SOUTH KOREA, CHINA: South Korea reported 27 fresh cases as infections continued to wane in the worst-hit city of Daegu and nearby towns. South Korea's totals are 10,564 infections and 222 virus-related deaths. China reported 89 new virus cases, 86 of them among travelers arriving from abroad, but no new deaths. It has confirmed 3,341 deaths out of 82,249 official cases of infections. "

....and label that as "pumping up good news"?? That was some of the most bland and verbally careful reporting I have ever read with "China reported" and "China confirmed."

And I really don't see how that is anti-American at all.

And do we all know the numbers from China are BS? I see BS everywhere over this and I cannot say I see enough information to single out China.....except to say...what can the Chinese gov. ever say that we will just believe? But that said what can the U.S. gov.? The U.S. gov. is just better at propaganda manipulation.

Sorry, I am just at a complete loss to understand your response.
 
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