@AruanM Congratulations to you too! I don't think there would be any reason for the scholarship not to be given to you at this point... I mean... maybe if the university disappeared from earth... but otherwise I would say you can start packing
I was wondering how much I could let myself be excited after passing the second screening too, and like you say it's probably unlikely that anyone could fail at this point before the final screening.
However, to clarify why it's even an issue (the embassy continually told me "even though you've passed the
n-th screening, this is not officially decided.."), consider the terms of the scholarship:
- National universities waive the tuition for MEXT scholars (university bears the cost), private universities' tuition is paid by MEXT (expensive) and public universities' tuition is paid by MEXT (cheaper).
- MEXT grants the scholarship to the applicant, but the university offers the actual admission (to the university).
- The professor/lab offers the provisional acceptance letter on behalf of the university, which is different from the university-wide admission process used for domestic students.
- Some universities are super popular (Todai, Waseda, Keio) and have a very high number of applicants in a given year.
Considering these points, it's possible that MEXT clears you for the second screening (i.e., application/documents/exams are valid and approved by MEXT staff), but the next step is contacting universities, and students could get turned away if:
- A national university (not the professor, but the uni-admin) decides that they don't want to waive costs for a MEXT student.
- MEXT is faced with choosing from a list of private universities with high tuition, during a year when the budget is tight.
- The desired universities received too many applicants to accept them all (like Todai) but the applicant did not list any "easy" universities as a back-up.
Notice that these scenarios are independent of the embassy selection process, so it's possible to pass the 1st/2nd screenings and still get rejected before the final. But it's extremely unlikely
Just FYI in my case I had a private university as my 1st choice, but MEXT didn't even contact them! They skipped straight to my 2nd choice, which was a national university (cheaper option for MEXT).
Good luck to everyone waiting, and congrats to those who are hearing good results!