Is US entering Japan's nightmare?

[Astroboy]

Barak Obama will be the 44th president of the U.S.A. Why now? I think it's partly because of the stupidity and incompetence of the the 43rd president--worst f**king president in history. But it's also because Obama is really smart.
Now the question for this forum is, "What does it mean for Japan?" And the answer is, I think, Japan's politicians will have to grow up. Obama is much more mature than Bush despite his younger age. Japan will have to learn how to defend its positions rather than just following American policy. This will be good for Japan, IMO.

Thanks for your suggestion. Yes, Japanese politicians are childish, I have to admit. But thanking to such childishness, Japan could have been away from "War Against Terror" & "Fake Ecomony". Stupidity and unmatureness of the Japanese politicians are proved better in the most cases.

Now back to Barack Obama, I'm sure that city of "Obama" of Fukui prefecture will become more popular for tourism.

 

[caster51]

I think it's partly because of the stupidity and incompetence of the the 43rd president--worst f**king president in history. But it's also because Obama is really smart

.

I think American is getting worse. who chose Bush?
The general public might be foolish.
it is a fault of democracy

 

[Dogen Z]

Americans, like anyone else, can make mistakes. But we have (generally speaking) the redeeming trait of being able to admit our mistake as soon as we know it and moving on to fix whatever needs fixing. Well, at least this is Obama's way, I believe (It's definitely not Bush's way).

Anyhow, it's traditional to give a new president 100 days in office before making a judgement call on his performance. The problems he has to solve are really, really bad. Let's see how he does--but I think he's already changed the world's mindset.

ﾆ稚ﾆ椎陳ーﾂ、ﾆ稚ﾆ椎陳ーﾂ、ﾆ棚ﾆ弛ﾆ筑ﾂ！

I wonder who he's going to pick for ambassador to Japan? Not a baseball comissioner, I hope.

 

[Sukotto]

corporations rule the world.

This is the reality of our world today.
It is not Bush-world.
Bush did not empower the corporations.
An 1886 US Supreme Court decision stating
corporations could not be denied property,
using the new 14th Amendment (a post US civil war amendment guaranteeing freed slaves their rights),
gave corporations, a legal-entity; a non-human person, "rights".

That is as good as any place to start.


one interesting book
by Naomi Kline "The Shock Doctrine The Rise of Disaster Capitalism"
During crisis massive privatization on such a large scale that people are shocked and cannot resist. The only way to impose Milton Freidman's "free market" fundamentalist ideology - and via undemocratic means. Time and again. Privatize government functions - privatize government. It is even happening to the US military.

 

[JerseyBoy]

.
I think American is getting worse. who chose Bush?
The general public might be foolish.
it is a fault of democracy

In the typical general election, it may boil down to pick the lesser evil between the two presidential nominees. GWB won by the relatively slim margin for both 2000 and 2004 against his Democratic opponents. One of the reasons GWB nailed his second term in office is John Kerry's campaign was too laid back while being attached ferociously by GWB's GOP (ie. Republican Party). Also, American economy in 2004 was in good shape, which helped GWB's re-election bid.

 

[Pachipro]

As I've said before, the US presidential elections are a farce. No one, I repeat, NO ONE, gets to run for president unless they are hand picked by the elites who control the financial/economical institutions of not only the US, but Europe, England, and Japan and they better do their bidding or else. The US has not had free elections in almost 100 years, ever since the Federal Reserve, which is neither Federal nor a Reserve, but a conglomeration of private banks and elites, was put into action in 1913 where these private bankers lend money to the US at interest when the US constitution strictly says that only the Congress shall have the right to coin and mint money. Ever since then it is they who have controlled the US government.

ﾂ"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is now controlled by its system of credit. We are no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.ﾂ" – President Woodrow Wilson, 1919 (He signed the Federal Reserve into power in 1913.)

Even if the US populace is duped into believing that they really have a vote and that many feel they are voting for the "lesser of two evils", they are still voting in evil! When was the last time we had a "good" person running for office? Lincoln? Kennedy? We all know what happened to them when they went against the elites and wanted to do away with the Federal Reserve/International Bankers as both Lincoln and Kennedy wanted to print our own money! Research it!

The US currency is not backed by anything, zero, zilch nada, and has not been backed by anything ever since Nixon took us off the Gold standard in the early 70's. The US$ is only worth what the Federal Reserve says it is and if they decide tomorrow that it is worth zero there is nothing you nor I can do about it. It's the same with all the Central Banks of England, Europe, Japan, Australia, etc, etc.

Sorry, but Obama will do as he is told just as Bush jr did, and Clinton did, and Bush daddy did, and Reagan did, and Carter did, and Ford did, etc etc. or he will face the consequences of the elite, shadow government. And sadly, Obama will lead the US into destruction as he is instructed to do unless he grows a pair and spills the beans on the controllers. Something tells me he will not do such a thing as he loves his family too much.

There exists a shadowy Government with its own Air Force, its own Navy, its own fundraising mechanism, and the ability to pursue its own ideas of the national interest, free from all checks and balances, and free from the law itself.

We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and nations will accept the New World Order.

Even David Rockefeller said in his memoirs:

"Some even believe we are a part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as 'internationalists' and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure -- one world, if you will. If that's the charge, I stand guilty and I am proud of it."

Take it for what it's worth, but it all there before your very unbelieving eyes. Still some refuse to even allow themselves to believe it and I say, just look at the world around you today, where it was last year, and what the future is. It is not bright. The New World Order is being unveiled before your very eyes.

 

[caster51]

Obama,I think it tells Pax Americana is ended.
US democracy and freedom made to finish the Power of USA
New president Obama was chosen from quite different power in the past .
It is not from leading power to which the United States has been expanded by courage and the pioneer spirit.
It was entitled by the leader, and it was chosen with the layer where requesting welfare as a right did not stop.
The child to whom 20 million illegal immigrants gave birth automatically
obtains the United States citizenship.
Parents of the relation in the first degree automatically become US citizens,
too.
The number of people who request the given right has exceeded 50% of the
population soon.
The pioneer spirit and courage are unnecessary in the given person.
Dependency has made the spirit of coward predominant in the United States.

It became an age when it became hopeless high economic growth and the influence power in the world economy of the dollar decreased.

The United States has spread democracy to the world by the pioneer spirit and courage
The United States tries to get off the seat as the leader in the world because of democracy sarcastically.

I think The United States will fight against the Middle East for Israel last.
And, the history of 250 years will be shut so that the flame may go up before the candle disappears.

 

[Astroboy]

US rescues ailing Citigroup bank
The US government has announced a rescue plan for the Citigroup banking giant after its shares plunged by more than 60% last week.
The US treasury department is to invest $20bn (£13.4bn) in return for preferred shares in Citigroup.
The treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp will also guarantee up to $306bn (£205bn) of risky loans and securities on Citigroup's books.
The plan follows a $25bn injection of public funds in the bank last month.

I remember the word "Too Big To Fail". When Japanese banks and corporations had suffered from so-called bad loans some years ago, they told us "Japanese government should not help Zombie companies but let them fall", as they wanted to purchase them at cheap costs.

But when US government face its own Zombie companies, it becomes very kind ...

 

[JerseyBoy]

I remember the word "Too Big To Fail". When Japanese banks and corporations had suffered from so-called bad loans some years ago, they told us "Japanese government should not help Zombie companies but let them fall", as they wanted to purchase them at cheap costs.
But when US government face its own Zombie companies, it becomes very kind ...

Citibank has an asset valued over USD 2 trillion. So, it is not like the Zombie companies Japan nurtured during the 90s.

 

[Astroboy]

Citibank has an asset valued over USD 2 trillion.

But the problem is .... the "asset value", isn't it?
Do you believe it's still worth of USD2 trillion ???

 

[JerseyBoy]

But the problem is .... the "asset value", isn't it?
Do you believe it's still worth of USD2 trillion ???

Look, the markets are betting on the company's stock. All monies are based on the trust. Japanese Yen is not pegged to any solid asset; neither is the US Dollar or any other currencies. Based on the current market, Citi's assets are estimated at USD 2 trillion.

 

[Astroboy]

Look, the markets are betting on the company's stock. All monies are based on the trust. Japanese Yen is not pegged to any solid asset; neither is the US Dollar or any other currencies. Based on the current market, Citi's assets are estimated at USD 2 trillion.

Okay... I "trust" you.

 

[Astroboy]

Alan Mulally (L-R), President and CEO of Ford Motor Company, Robert Nardelli, chairman and CEO of Chrysler, and G. Richard Wagoner, chairman and CEO of General Motors takes their seats to testify before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs in a hearing on "Examining the State of the Domestic Automobile Industry," on Capitol Hill in Washington November 18, 2008. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque (UNITED STATES)

Maybe .... those Big 3 automakers are not Zombie yet as those CEOs are rich men, using "Private Jets".

 

[JerseyBoy]

Maybe .... those Big 3 automakers are not Zombie yet as those CEOs are rich men, using "Private Jets".

The Detroit's Big Three's top executives are a bunch of inept and incompetent buffoons (maybe except for Alan Mulally of Ford, as he had prescience to line up the credit before the credit crunch gripped the market). But, I admit if GM is going to stay in the business, I would be buying the Corvette when I get back to USA in the near future (side note: I only bought either GM or Ford cars in the States with my own money; I found a typical Japanese cars in the states are a little under-powered and appliance-like.)
I heard they are going to car-pool together for the next congressional hearing. There was a funny Saturday Night Sketch on that car pooling thing.

 

[Astroboy]

Financial Bailout Balloons to the Trillions
The government's financial bailout will be the most expensive single expenditure in American history, potentially costing around $7.5 trillion -- or half the value of all the goods and services produced in the United States last year.
Financial Bailout Balloons to the Trillions

I am not surprised to hear this amount ... as Japan spent $1 trillion to normalise so-called Balance Sheet Recession or revive from Lost-Decade. US economic scale is about 3times bigger than Japan. A Total of $4.6 trillion for 2008 Bailout could be possible.... But problem is that Japan disposed for the period of 10 years, but 2008 bailout of USA is the first year of financial crisis.

 

[JerseyBoy]

That figure includes the amount "backed" by the US government or the Federal Reserve. If the economy improves (as it will eventually at some point in the future) and the credit markets become unclogged, the actual money US gov needs to spend would be much less than that.
As of now, there is no default reserve currency other than US Dollar. Euro is weak because of EU's main economies are in recession. BRIC countries cannot take over the job USA used to do before the current financial crisis. China has the huge Dollar-based reserve and does not want to devalue that reserve with the weakened US Dollar. Japan's economy is mostly based on the export business, which is greatly affected by the weak global demand for its products.

However, the US dollar will be under pressure as many hedge funds and other shadow bankers need to liquidate their dollar-based assets to their investors and creditors.

 

[caster51]

Japan's economy is mostly based on the export business, which is greatly affected by the weak global demand for its products.

what happend in 1996.


The raw material is cheap.
I think Euro goes to less than 100 yen
Appreciation of the yen causes the raw material and the semifinished import reduction in costs for Japanese economy of the processing trade large country.

Appreciation of the yen : the export industry would be "Fair wind" if the government adopts the plan of domestic demand expansion for the decreasing export amount

 

[Astroboy]

Japan's economy is mostly based on the export business, which is greatly affected by the weak global demand for its products.

This is not correct in terms of macro economics.
It is often said that Japan relies on EXPORT for their economy/GDP, but in fact, Japan is one of the least countries being dependent on Trade.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/47992-using-trade-to-gdp-ratio-to-evaluate-country-etfs
Japan's ﾂ"trade-to-GDP ratioﾂ", which is the sum of exports and imports divided by the gross domestic product, accounts for some 20%. This is the smallest share in the list - surprisingly Japan is Less than UK ! (I'm not sure what UK trades with foreign countries).

So, global economic recession will least affect Japan .... theoretically. In fact, despite the Japanese news media's misleading, Life of ordinary Japanese remain unchanged - so far. It is because most of our economy live in domestic market.

On the other hand, most of EU countries heavily rely on trade. Typically Germany & Holland. In addition, so-called BRICS (emerging countries) are also heavily dependent on trade, typically China.

 

[JerseyBoy]

This is not correct in terms of macro economics.
It is often said that Japan relies on EXPORT for their economy/GDP, but in fact, Japan is one of the least countries being dependent on Trade.

Trade goes both ways, import and export. The international trade is an essential part of the Japanese economy. Close to 70% of its economy is in the service sectors. In general, Japan's service products are not really competitive nor well-accepted by the overseas markets as far as the service industries are concerned (also most of the Japanese service sectors is the low paying jobs). The crown jewels of the Japanese industries are affected by how well their export markets perform.

 

[Astroboy]

Trade goes both ways, import and export. The international trade is an essential part of the Japanese economy. Close to 70% of its economy is in the service sectors. In general, Japan's service products are not really competitive nor well-accepted by the overseas markets as far as the service industries are concerned (also most of the Japanese service sectors is the low paying jobs). The crown jewels of the Japanese industries are affected by how well their export markets perform.

ﾂ"trade-to-GDP ratioﾂ"ﾂ is the sum of exports and imports divided by the gross domestic product.ﾂ So, both ways are included.

Meanwhile, my BIG question is .... if "In general, Japan's service products are not really competitive", why don't we see many success stories of foreign competitive service firms in Japan ???

I assume that your "competitive" may mean "abandon customer service, being essential here" ???

 

[Astroboy]

Nobel winner Krugman says ...

History has showed that government spending is the tool for fighting the crisis, Krugman said, pointing to analysis of the 1930s Depression and a more recent deflation scenario in Japan.
"The experience in Japan from the 1990s was that indeed government spending, while it may not produce a permanent cure, can greatly alleviate the pressures on the economy."
Nobel winner Krugman fears damage to economy

The Japanese lessons indicate that Government spending is only hope for US economic recovery in the midst of balance sheet recession as Almost all Americans and US corporations tighten spending and repay their debts to the banks.
However, US government spending means more budget deficit & more debts for US government. Some 10 years ago, J-bonds were purchased by the Japanese and digested within Japan. But I wonder if Americans are willing to purchase US T-bonds or not.

 

[JerseyBoy]

ﾂ"trade-to-GDP ratioﾂ"ﾂ is the sum of exports and imports divided by the gross domestic product.ﾂ So, both ways are included.
Meanwhile, my BIG question is .... if "In general, Japan's service products are not really competitive", why don't we see many success stories of foreign competitive service firms in Japan ???
I assume that your "competitive" may mean "abandon customer service, being essential here" ???

Your argument is similar to: a heart is only about 3% of human weight; so it is not that important part.

I cannot answer why there are not many foreign service providers in Japan, as I am not the in the position to set up a business in Japan. In general, some of the service industries are for the local people by the local people (except for industries such as banking, finance, insurance, consulting, business or enterprise software, and what not). It does not make sense to bring an American hair stylist or barber here...Just an example.

Each market has a different standard for the quality of the customer service (or lack thereof). In general, Japanese consumers are very particular about the services. So, some services rendered in overseas may not meet your Japanese standard on the service quality. So, your assumption is incorrect. You are going from one extreme to another here.

 

[Astroboy]

OECD fact book says ..... In 2006, the trade-to-GDP ratio for OECD countries was 26%, while the rate for the EU15 was 38%. For the reasons noted above, there were large differences in these ratios across countries. The ratios exceeded 50% for small countries – Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the Slovak Republic – but were under
20% for the two largest OECD countries – Japan and the United States.

USA - 14.1% (Lowest)
Japan - 15.5% (Second Lowest)
EU 15 - 38.3%
OECD total - 26.3%
http://fiordiliji.sourceoecd.org/pdf/factbook2008/302008011e-03-01-01.pdf

I wonder why everybody, including Japanese media, continues to tell "Japanese economy heavily relies on Trade". IF so, All countries, except USA, are Ultra-Dependent on Trade.

 

[JerseyBoy]

OECD fact book says ..... In 2006, the trade-to-GDP ratio for OECD countries was 26%, while the rate for the EU15 was 38%. For the reasons noted above, there were large differences in these ratios across countries. The ratios exceeded 50% for small countries – Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the Slovak Republic – but were under
20% for the two largest OECD countries – Japan and the United States.
USA - 14.1% (Lowest)
Japan - 15.5% (Second Lowest)
EU 15 - 38.3%
OECD total - 26.3%
http://fiordiliji.sourceoecd.org/pdf/factbook2008/302008011e-03-01-01.pdf
I wonder why everybody, including Japanese media, continues to tell "Japanese economy heavily relies on Trade". IF so, All countries, except USA, are Ultra-Dependent on Trade.

Again, you are just looking at the quantitative data. It's important to consider the qualitative data.
Japan's domestic economy growth is very anemic for years and its export business is important to build wealth and earn foreign reserves. If it is only in the domestic business, that Japanese company's growth is very limited (or could fall into a negative figure very soon).

China, Germany, and Japan are the perennial top 3 with a large current account surplus. So, naturally, it is fair to say exports are important for those countries.

PS. A new ad campaign by the Big Three

 

[JerseyBoy]

However, US government spending means more budget deficit & more debts for US government. Some 10 years ago, J-bonds were purchased by the Japanese and digested within Japan. But I wonder if Americans are willing to purchase US T-bonds or not.

US Treasury Bonds will find the buyers easily as it is still considered the safest financial instrument. US just sold $30 billion worth of bonds to eager buyers even though the interest is "zero." Mutual Funds, money market funds, and other institutional buyers purchase the treasury bonds (I heard only about 25% of the bonds are purchased by the foreign entities). In this shaky economy worldwide, many buyers may keep parking their bucks in the treasury bonds for the time being.

J-bonds are not attractive to foreign buyers. In Japan, there is nowhere to put the money except for the J-bonds except for hoarding the cash under the mattress. So, Japanese institutional buyers purchase the J-bonds. Debts are debts. There is no difference who owns the debts. Japan's public debts are almost twice the size of its GDP. I can smell the smoke a mile away from Diet's kitchen (those incompetent career politicians and bureaucrats have been cooking up the "tax-borrow-spend" witch's brew for decades).