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what's your opinion of Stock market and Yen?

lok737

先輩
19 Oct 2006
21
0
11
I think the stock market will go up by the end of the year
and Yen is vice versa
what do you think?
 
I haven't paid much attention to the stock market(s), so I wouldn't care to venture a prediction. I also pay more attention to the yen's relative value to the dollar, which is low at the moment, but that seems to be more due to artificial inflation of the dollar than anything else.
 
Is usd/yen 120 the bottom?

I think the yen will go up after the mid-election of U.S.
as the U.S. stock market will go down
 
I wish !!

I should have stocked up on yen to bring home from my last trip to Japan. 1 US dollar got you 360 yen.

Uncle Frank

😊
 
Yeah ... as the great currency speculator George Soros predicted it 5-6 years ago,US dollar depreciated 35% against Euro.
 
Yen and Stock Market.

First the Yen. (I am talking long term 5-20 years).
This one is pretty simple, if you are saving your Yen I strongly advise you to buy Euros, and keep buying them, in 20 years, you will thank me or wish you had listened. You would even do better in US$. Look at any 5 year chart of the yen vs any major currency. The long term trend is a tanking yen. The economy is recovering, but the accumulated debt coupled with a decreasing population and aging population plus the inability to balance a budget will result in either a total economic breakdown (unlikely), or a slow continued economic demise (more likely). If you don't agree, feel free to visit Japan's ministry of finance webpage and look over some of the pdfs.
Stock Market
I just got out mainly due to the yen. As with all stock markets there are good and bad stocks. Even in a bear market some stocks go up. I think Japan has many good companies, and heaps to chose from. Stocks were quite cheap and are getting a little pricey, but you can probably still find deals. A diversified portfolio is key. I would pick 5-10 types of stocks (financial, cars, shipping, steel, industrial, small cap ect.), scan through stocks in each of these sectors and toss out the garbage, usually leaving you with 3-5 good ones in each sector. Then go through their financials and management with a fine tooth comb. You should then come up with a best of breed. Make a decision and then hold it. Important notes, make sure the companies sell products that people want and will continue to want/need (like cars). On my recent sales I average 39% annualized gains. Problem is, I lost nearly 10% over the last year due to yen devaluation.
Other notes - good to focus on companies with growth in china.
- assume a decreasing yen (companies dependant on importing raw materials might suffer)
- assume continued increasing oil prices.
- if you plan to convert the stocks to other currencies, you may as well just invest in other markets.
Overall, I would rather have my money in stocks, that have them in a Japanese bank that pays 0.01% interest. It is easy to find some very stable companiest that pay 1-3% dividends.
Kilt.
 
Japan has highest public debt for the Japanese people
In other words, it is a property for Japanese citizen.
The United States has a big debt for the foreign country.

Japanese ppl's financial asset is 1500兆円
it is said hidden financial asset is ? 兆円
the Japanese financial asset is 300兆円 in foreign countries(This net assets have increased for about 100 trillion yen every year)
that is there are more than 2000 兆円...
VS
public debt for the Japanese people is 900兆円
so, J there is still room of one quadrillion yen for Japan.

let's hear it from market Yen is stiil bought even if the rating company fuels the problem of Japan... you can see what truth is...

this problem is a brainwashing of elite finance Ministry bureaucrats.

Comparing it with the ratio of GDP is nonsense..
The important one is not a share of gross domestic product in the aggregate liability but a share of gross domestic product in the government bond interest payment.

The low degree of the difficulty degree of the interest payment of the debt becomes the height of the rating of the government bond.

The government bond interest payment when you compare the share of gross domestic products...Japan is the lowest 1.6% , 2.1% in the United States and 2.3% in Germany in the advanced country.


As for the market in the world, even if the people in Japan intended to cheat the financial elite bureaucrat, it knows the truth.
Yen is bought for first, and therefore, when the attention of the market gathers in fiscal resources of Japan, this East Japan great earthquake is surprised at the super-health and is bought yen when becoming a credit crunch due to the financial deterioration in Southern European nations.

It is said that it is foolish think about the tax increase as Kan prime minister reduces public servants' salaries by 10% because it has been brainwashed by fabrication information such as "Financial crisis" by the financial elite bureaucrat.

Why does the financial elite bureaucrat induce the people by the lie?

as historical teaching, If the knife called financial crisis is never pointed at people's backs, the country cannot be guided. 。

It is their "Pride" said that Japan cannot be left to the people other than we elites".

anyway.....
Predawn is the darkest. 。。。
I dont know what will happen next year in the world
However.... Japan's golden age will start:p...

Just prapare to buy the Japanese stock..
long ajustment will be over
 
Japan has highest public debt for the Japanese people
In other words, it is a property for Japanese citizen.
The United States has a big debt for the foreign country.

Japaneseツ ppl's financial asset is 1500窶吮?コ窶ー~
it is said hiddenツ financial assetツ is ? ツ 窶吮?コ窶ー~
the Japanese financial asset is 300窶吮?コ窶ー~ in foreign countries(This net assets have increased for about 100 trillion yen every yearツ)
that is there are more than 2000 窶吮?コ窶ー~...
窶嗽窶嗷
public debt for the Japanese peopleツ is 900窶吮?コ窶ー~
so, J there is still room of one quadrillion yenツ for Japan.

let's hear it from market Yen is stiil bought even if the rating company fuels the problem of Japan... you can see what truth is...

this problem is a brainwashing of elite finance Ministry bureaucrats.

Comparing it with the ratio of GDP is nonsense..
The important one is not a share of gross domestic product in the aggregate liability but a share of gross domestic product in the government bond interest payment.

The low degree of the difficulty degree of the interest payment of the debt becomes the height of the rating of the government bond.

The government bond interest payment when you compare the share of gross domestic products...Japan is the lowest 1.6% , 2.1% in the United States and 2.3% in Germany in the advanced country.


As for the market in the world, even if the people in Japan intended to cheat the financial elite bureaucrat, it knows the truth.
Yen is bought for first, and therefore, when the attention of the market gathers in fiscal resources of Japan, this East Japan great earthquake is surprised at the super-health and is bought yen when becoming a credit crunch due to the financial deterioration in Southern European nations.

It is said that it is foolish think about the tax increase as Kan prime minister reduces public servants' salaries by 10% because it has been brainwashed by fabrication information such as "Financial crisis" by the financial elite bureaucrat.

Why does the financial elite bureaucrat induce the people by the lie?

as historical teaching, If the knife called financial crisis is never pointed at people's backs, the country cannot be guided. ツ。

It is their "Pride" said that Japan cannot be left to the people other than we elites".

anyway.....
Predawn is the darkest. ツ。ツ。ツ。
I dont know what will happen next year in the world
However.... Japan's golden age will start:p...

Just prapare to buy the Japanese stock..
long ajustment will be over

ツ?渉 will go up 60' this year:p
He read my comment?

 
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The yen will continue to go up as long as the Yuan is fixed and the dollar is down. The dollar is toast and i don't see the yuan freely exchanged on the forex markets anytime soon. so the yen will remain high.
 
If FRB implement QE3, though depending on the scale, I assme JPY exchange rate against USD may soar to 50-yen per dollar. Either way, JPY is too strong or other currencies are too weak. Under the circumstances, Japanese companies have changed the strategy "Let's buy foreign companies and let them work for us." Japan is aiming to live on return-on-investment, not export anymore.
 
But I am focus on the Japanese Yen more.
What do you think of its prospect?

With the Swiss Franc losing over 9 percent in two days when the Swiss Centeral Bank decided to intervene strongly in the currency, perhaps the markets will flock to the Japanese Yen, which will make the Japanese equity markets very bearish.

Japan does intervene often in the markets to drive down the Yen, but the Japanese central bank will not intervene so harshly like the Swiss Franc making it more of a safe haven.
 
ツ?渉 will go up 60' this year:p
He read my comment?



This is very interesting. I thought that Japan was in as much debt as Greece and that Japan was going to eventually default like the Piigs. I would have thought that China or India who have people who are far more of a tightwad than Japanese people even after suffering a decade long recession.
 
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I believe that Japanese Yen, will go stronger might be up to the next year (prediction from the news, after it, we should wait for other events that will occur), since the economy recover very well, even much better than the expected after the tsunami and earthquake. I am happy for it.
I am curious and wish to know about Japanese fiscal and monetary policy.

I believe that Japanese Yen, will go stronger might be up to the next year (prediction from the news, after it, we should wait for other events that will occur), since the economy recover very well, even much better than the expected after the tsunami and earthquake. I am happy for it.
I am curious and wish to know about Japanese fiscal and monetary policy.
For stock exchange, it is a bit up and down, but majorly it is stable and its getting stronger.
 
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For stock exchange, it is a bit up and down, but majorly it is stable and its getting stronger.

Almost all investors including foreign financial institutions are pulling money from stock market as they foresee anohter-Lehman Bros shock.
Therefore, Nikkei average continues to fall although sometimes up and down.
 
According to Nikkei, share of foreigners in J-bonds increased to 7.4% by June end, while it was 6 % from the previous year. Foreign investors are buying more J-bonds as they believe that J-Bonds are better than others, and thus Yen has soard.
 
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