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Could we see a 100 yen = $1???

"Mark-to-Market" is a finance/accounting term

Thanks, but I know the meaning.

The point is that the new US scheme is too flexible for the private sector, the banks, to judge how toxic their assets are. The judge is not the third party like Japan did (does) during our lost two decades, but the banks themselves.
 
The problem was that the mark-to-market rule was too inflexbile and hurt banks' capital ratio by assigning very little or no value to assets that cannot be sold now but will have great value if held to maturity. The problem is now on 3rd party auditor's hands to see if they agree to the banks' valuations.
 
Technical Analysis

There was a small blurb on Bloomsberg today about how the yen could climb to 79/U.S.$ if it doesn't move past the 103 yen/U.S.$ barrier. If it does break that barrier, then its supposed to fall to 117 yen/U.S.$. According to some Mizuho analyst.

This sounds like technical analysis claptrap to me. I think Mizuho should fire this guy and start doing more fundamental analysis. (No wonder Mizuho is doing so poorly.)

Technical analysis presupposes that the future repeats the past. However, as someone (Mark Twain?) said, "The future doesn't so much repeat the past as it does rhyme with the past."
 
With the new mark-to-market rules put in by the Fed it will definitely help the banks quarterly profits because the banks can say their toxic assets are whatever they want them to be all the while disguising their true value which is billions of dollars higher.

According to the Wikipedia entry for "Mark to Market:

"On March 10, 2009, In remarks made in the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, "We should review regulatory policies and accounting rules to ensure that they do not induce excessive (swings in the financial system and economy)". Although he doesn't support the full suspension of basic proposition of Mark to Market principles, he is open to improving it and provide "guidance" on reasonable ways to value assets to reduce their pro- cyclical effects.[17]

"On March 16, 2009, The FASB have proposed allowing companies to use more leeway in valuing their assets under "mark-to-market" accounting, a move that could ease balance-sheet pressures many companies say they are feeling during the economic crisis.

"On April 2, 2009, after a 15-day public comment period, the FASB eased Mark-to-Market rules. This change still requires financial institutions to mark transactions to market prices but more so in an steady market and less when the market is inactive. To proponents, this removes the unnecessary "positive feedback loop" that can result in a deeply weakened economy.[18]"

Therefore, is it any wnoder why the markets went insane last week when Wells Fargo showed a billion dollar profit last week? I say, "No kidding Sherlock". Do you think they would show a decline when they can price their toxic assets at any price they want? All the while hiding their true losses and red ink!

Consider this also from the Wikepedia entry:

"Companies can use the new guidance when issuing their first-quarter financial statements.[19] Such changes could significantly boost bank statements of earnings and loses[20]. The FASB changes, however, are for acceptable accounting standards applicable to a broad range of derivatives, not just banks holding mortgage backed securities.

"Opponents argue that the implications for investors are that the valuation of assets underlying such securities will be increasingly difficult to analyze, not less so. An example would be determining a company's actual assets, equity and earnings, which will be overstated if the assets are not allowed to marked down appropriately.[21]"

Therefore, again we are being lied to and the pundits and talking heads on TV are telling us the worst is over and that the end of the recession is near. Don't believe them for a second! It is FAR from over and the world's debtor economies, like the US, will suffer greatly in the next two years. If anyone decides to gamble on the markets, please just drop your money into the sewer because you will lose it one way or another. The only ones who will be the winners will be the owners of the "Casinos" like Goldman-Sachs et al. They are just throwing a little more bait into the water before they finally pull up the net with even more of your money in it. Don't be a fool.

Speaking of the Japanese yen, some have recently predicted JPN 117/US$ again and I hope they are right because I would just buy more as it will eventually strengthen to JPN 80 - 70/US$, if not lower before this is all over.
 
Can a rich US foreign national exchange USD's or gold for Yen, and use them to purchase Japanese real estate and corporations?

Seems to me, that if we could, we would simply be able to buy our foreign competition.

As long as Japanese and Chinese workers continue to work for much less, and their money is worth much less than a USD, it provides them with natural tariff and protectionism measures.

Those workers cannot afford to purchase US worker made goods.

The US exports it's money, technology, and cheap raw materials only. and China and Japan import US money for their labor.

What a deal.
 
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As long as Japanese and Chinese workers continue to work for much less, and their money is worth much less than a USD, it provides them with natural tariff and protectionism measures.

Obviously, this has not been the case for about a year now. The yen is currently worth more or almost equal to the USD.
 
Trip to HK

The current strengthening of the yen vis-a-vis the US$ is due to the Fed's printing of money to buy more assets and build up liquidity in the credit market. So it's dollar weakening rather than endaka. But this means the HK$ is weakening too since it's pegged to the US$.

Maybe it time for a trip to HK? :)
 
I was going over my papers yesterday from my last trip to Japan (April 2007) and I found my currency exchange receipt from Narita Airport. The exchange rate then was 116 yen per dollar. How times change!
 
ArmandV said:
I was going over my papers yesterday from my last trip to Japan (April 2007) and I found my currency exchange receipt from Narita Airport. The exchange rate then was 116 yen per dollar. How times change!
Last summer I purchased a very large amount of yen at 124/US$1 in anticipation of my move back there. Today it is sitting somewhere around 95/US$1.

When I left Japan in 1988 at the peak of the bubble, I purchased alot of dollars at around 122-125/US$. Yes, times have changed in the short run, but in the long run, not much has changed really. In 1993, or thereabouts, the exchange rate was as low as 88 yen/US$1. The main difference is that, in Japan, deflation has taken hold for 20 years and prices (in yen) have not changed much in that time as I witnessed during my recent visit. In fact, relative to the US$, things in Japan have become cheaper in yen, but more expensive in US$ Although the US$ buys less and less, yen still buys about the same or more if that makes any sense.
 
Last summer I purchased a very large amount of yen at 124/US$1 in anticipation of my move back there. Today it is sitting somewhere around 95/US$1.
When I left Japan in 1988 at the peak of the bubble, I purchased alot of dollars at around 122-125/US$. Yes, times have changed in the short run, but in the long run, not much has changed really. In 1993, or thereabouts, the exchange rate was as low as 88 yen/US$1. The main difference is that, in Japan, deflation has taken hold for 20 years and prices (in yen) have not changed much in that time as I witnessed during my recent visit. In fact, relative to the US$, things in Japan have become cheaper in yen, but more expensive in US$ Although the US$ buys less and less, yen still buys about the same or more if that makes any sense.

Yes, it does. The yen will buy what it always will buy, unless inflation skyrockets in Japan. Still, we aren't as getting much yen for our dollars as we did.
 
There is the bid of the American government 30years bond on 6/9
$ will be kept high
so is Bond price..
Of course, the purchaser are Japan and etc
Their bases are sold high and bought back cheaply.
Fiscal deficit is buried after that manner.
 
It has become apparent the foundation of the dollar will crumble as months and quarters go by. I will take back my opinion that the dollar will gain valuation against the yen. I am now evaluating when the best time is for dumping my dollar assets.
 
Japan Yen to US Dollar Currency Exchange Rate
Past Trend Present Value & Future Projectionツ (Average of Month).
Yengif-1.jpg


Unless US government seek measures to decrease government debts, credit-rating companies will soon degrade US T-bonds. And I personally believe that there will be NO Way-Out., meaning USD will continue to go down at least against JPY.
 
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks fell around the world, led by China, while the yen and the dollar advanced and Treasuries rose as investors speculated that a rally in riskier assets has outpaced the prospects for economic growth.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

As the world economies may sink into a double-dip recession, investors are shifting again to JPY and USD. China is likely to be short of breath as it begins to tighten the economy. Until the full recovery of advanced countries, such USA, EU and Japan, both JPY & USD will go up as investors will not be able to invest risk-assets.
 
Today's top financial news is that Warren Buffet and Pimco say that the dollar is weakening and may lose it's status as a reserve currency. "May"? I say it WILL LOSE IT'S STATUS. It's only a matter of time because it is already planned and written. These are just hints to those that are listening.

The yen will remain around 95/$ for the time being before dropping below 90 and maybe even lower. If the US$ loses its status it HAS to get stronger.

JerseyBoy said:
I will take back my opinion that the dollar will gain valuation against the yen. I am now evaluating when the best time is for dumping my dollar assets.

The best time for dumping your $ assets JB is now as the $ will continue its gradual descent and there will be no return for several years. As Buffet says, the worst may be over, but the US is in trouble fiscally with the bailouts and the monetization of its debt.

If there is to be a recovery in the US, it will be a jobless one and jobs will not return for many years along with housing prices IMO as there is basically no manufacturing left to fuel jobs. Even Bloomberg and CNBC are today discussing that maybe the recent rally in the markets was overblown and based on false assumptions. Duhhhhh! I've been saying that along! And within the next year the DOW may even reach 5,000 or lower.
 
The yen will remain around 95/$ for the time being before dropping below 90 and maybe even lower. If the US$ loses its status it HAS to get stronger.

Until recently, Japan was the biggest purchaser of US T-bonds, but replaced by China.
If USD continues to drop, China will suffer from the loss as it holds a massive amount of US T-bonds.
Therefore, China is pressing US government to maintain USD value. This means that US government needs to suspend/scale down its economic stimulus plan.

But on the other hand, the world investors are today troubled as they cannot find out good investment targets. They may purchase Petroleum, Wheat, Maize ..... and US T-bonds. In fact, long-term interest rate (i.e. 10-years T-Bond yield) is not high as investors purchase T-bonds.

I think USD will not drop further as other currencies/economies are more or less the same.
 
The best time for dumping your $ assets JB is now as the $ will continue its gradual descent and there will be no return for several years. As Buffet says, the worst may be over, but the US is in trouble fiscally with the bailouts and the monetization of its debt.
My USD based mutual fund has recovered enough and I am short by 3 percent. It used to be more than 10 % short. As you suggested, this is a good time to get out before the market goes south again.
Because of the poor prospect for the American economy, I decided to leave New York and return back to Tokyo last week.
 
Jersey Boy said:
My USD based mutual fund has recovered enough and I am short by 3 percent. It used to be more than 10 % short. As you suggested, this is a good time to get out before the market goes south again.
Yes, and look at the price of gold today, it is over $1,000/oz, but the stock market keeps going up! This is a total contradiction as when the stock market goes up, gold is supposed to go down. The recent price of gold and the rising stock market tells me one thing: the markets are manipulated and most institutions know that the dollar is in a downward spiral so they are seeking gold as a safe haven. If you want to know where the US economy is headed pay no attention to the stock market and keep an eye on gold and silver as they are the true harbingers of where the US economy is headed.

If anyone does not believe that the stock market is are manipulated, just check out this posting on Wiki concerning the Plunge Protection Team and you'll understand what I am talking about.

If you don't want to believe Wiki, check out this link to the Washington Post from 1997 concerning the Plunge Protection Team.

The markets ARE manipulated on a daily basis, plain and simple and unless you are an insider, or own the "casino" like Goldman-Sachs and others on Wall Street, you don't stand a chance of making any real money these days as it actually is a gamble. Trust me, this so-called "bull market" is just a ruse designed to take more of your hard earned money. If it were not a ruse, gold would not be going as high as it is and the dollar would not have lost more than 10% these past few months.

The US is NOT coming out of this depression at anytime in the near future, if ever. To believe otherwise is just being naive and foolish and taking the bait "they" are feeding you.
 
Today Japanese YEN goes up by about 1% to JPY90 per USD. It will be a matter of timing for JPY to cross the 90-yen line up to 89-yen or more per USD.

For the past 10 years or more, the world economists and quality newspapers continued to tell .... Japanese economy will collapse soon as the government's debt is increasing to the unsustanable level and reaching 200% of its GDP.

But the reality looks quite different. JPY has continued to become stronger and stronger, while other major currencies continued to be less value, and unemployment rate is the lowest among the advanced countries, and GDP is still increasing a little bit.

Japanese Lesson No 2: Newspapers, Novel-Prized economists, IMF, World Bank and Anglo-American rating firms are NOT trustable, but Trust Bank Of Japan !
 
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