Could we see a 100 yen = $1???

[Astroboy]

Pound to Drop to Euro Parity, Dollar to Reach 85 Yen, BNP Says

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


Are there anybody who can explain ?.... WHY JPY rise despite DEBTS of 200% GDP + Lowest Yield of Bonds + Deflationary Economy + more than decade recession + list goes no.... I really want to hear from Novel-prized economists.

 

[Dogen Z]

I don't have a Nobel prize (yet), so I won't try to answer the previous question.
But I still believe there are better ways to spend tax money than servicing that huge debt, and something should be done about the debt soon or we will suffer from crushing taxes in the future.

Getting back to the issue of yen/dollar exchange rate, I think finance minister Fujii would be hard pressed not to intervene in the markets (despite what he's said) if the yen starts sliding to 85 yen per dollar. Manufacturers would make no profit, which means less taxes for the gov't so higher taxes for us! Then Japan would surely go back to an LDP-led government.

 

[JerseyBoy]

Okay, guys, no nobel prize winners are going to post an opinion on this forum. There, I said it. Rain on your parade. I highly doubt a future nobel prize winner will be roaming on this forum.

The current Dollar Yen market is once in a decade opportunity if you are playing a forex market. You know which way the exchange rate goes once it becomes clear about Japan's economic fundamentals (deflationary economy, poor performance by Japan's major corporations, relatively higher unemployment, and etc). The market does not move rationally all the times. People are irrational in general.

 

[Astroboy]

I'm very honored to hear from the opinions from J-forumers .... But I think

About Market Intervene: It is not good idea to intervene foreign exchange market except radical yen's hikes. As far as I know, majority of Japanese manufacturers have already shifted majority of their production base, excluding key parts, and they are maximizing their global production network by seeking best combination in terms of production capacity, exhange rate, etc. So, if JPY soars, they put more emphasis on overseas production and sourcing import parts. The point is ... unlike financial companies, manufacturers cannot change their production portfolio in a few days. They usually draw production plans half year before or one year before. Meanwhile, higher YEN is not bad to National Economy as we can benefit from higher purchasing power as Japan relies on massive imports on agricultural products, clothing, furniture, petroleum, so on so forth.

About 15 years ago, JPY marked 79-yen per USD. At that time, Japanese media continued to say "Japanese Mfg will die soon", but the result was not like that. Therefore, theoretically there is still enough room.

 

[Dogen Z]

I'm shocked at the lack of confidence expressed here. Nevertheless, I'll continue to press on with my efforts to rebalance the world economy. I would greatly appreciate any help in getting the yuan to be more flexible, it's such a stubborn beast. (sigh)

Anyway, I agree that a strong yen is not all bad. Hollowing out of manufacturing industry will have more benefits than it had in the past - for example, it could relieve labor shortage and reduce green house emissions. But as AB said, those benefits will come in the medium term. The problem is now and Fujii should warn against speculating, which he's done in the past few days.

 

[Astroboy]

The market does not move rationally all the times. People are irrational in general.

Mrs Watanabe and Mrs Smith may move irrationally, but key players in the FREX market are Hedge Funds, arn't they? They employ Nobel-prized economists or at least MBA graduates.

IF such elites purchase JPY (They said "a curency of The world's largest debt-laden & worst recession-hit nation"), they must return Nobel prize and diploma, I think.

 

[JerseyBoy]

Anyway, I agree that a strong yen is not all bad. Hollowing out of manufacturing industry will have more benefits than it had in the past - for example, it could relieve labor shortage and reduce green house emissions. But as AB said, those benefits will come in the medium term.

As you wished, you have just won the Nobel Prize for Economic Suicide and Absurdity. What you are saying does not make any sense unless your sole aim is to destroy the Japanese economy to oblivion.

The problem is now and Fujii should warn against speculating, which he's done in the past few days.

FOREX is too huge for a single country to control fully. (about USD 4 trillion dollar turn-over every trading day) Depending on how committed a country is in intervening the FOREX market, the market force (often prodded by speculators and traders) will move the market.

 

[Dogen Z]

Now, now, just because there's no administrator...

While I won't give you a lesson in the forex market, I'll give you some hints that you could use to do your own research. Try to find answers for the following: Is all of that $4T yen/dollar exchanges? Anyway, what is all of that money being used for? Didn't Fujii indicate he wouldn't try to defend an unsustainable exchange rate? But can a big central bank like the BoJ stop momentum trading by highly leveraged, short-term speculators?

 

[JerseyBoy]

Now, now, just because there's no administrator...
While I won't give you a lesson in the forex market, I'll give you some hints that you could use to do your own research. Try to find answers for the following: Is all of that $4T yen/dollar exchanges? Anyway, what is all of that money being used for? Didn't Fujii indicate he wouldn't try to defend an unsustainable exchange rate? But can a big central bank like the BoJ stop momentum trading by highly leveraged, short-term speculators?

No need to give me a lesson on the Forex. I do a freelance for a forex trader already as my hobby job.

The 4 T figure is the total forex market. Pros play the market among USD, JPY, EUR, CHF, AUD, NZD, SGD, and you name it, every trading day. Like most of speculations, Forex tends to be a short term investment vehicle. You don't sit on it for years. You ask and bid quickly (or bid and ask, as it is a 2 way trade). There is nothing created out of this type of trading as it is basically making quick money by playing the difference between the two currencies. It's typical of Wall Street products; you make money out of money without really making a tangible contribution to the general economy as a whole.

I am guilty of this as I play this trade on the side to get quick money for myself and my clients (with a leverage of X200, I can make a nice chunk of cash, sometimes up to 40% gain in a matter of hours; I am not a licensed broker, as it is against the law for a licensed broker to trade while advising clients). If you play it right, you look at the mutual funds (high management fees and poor performance regardless of the fees you are paying; it's good to have an old fashioned concept of pay-for-performance), savings (your money is dead in the water and will be eaten alive with inflation in the future), bonds (low yield, you cannot count on the compounded interest of less than 1 or 2 percent to grow your nest egg), and annuities (Insurance companies make money while you lose) with scorn.

George Soros is the good example of the currency trader. He wants to be a philosopher by publishing some books (I read one of his). That's another story.

An utterance from a central banker is an empty promise unless it is backed by actions. Does Japan want to have more dollars in its reserve when the dollar is getting kicked and punched senseless? In the rumor mill, Japan was said to be part of the parties who discussed ditching the dollar for the oil trade. Gold is going over $1000 per ounce. A distinct long term trend is brewing under our watch. Mr. Market is well aware of this.

I think the yen will hit the floor around JPY 78. JPY 92 to 95 would be the resistance.

 

[Dogen Z]

I hope you don't imagine you're George Soros because you've read a book and dabble in the forex market. Anyway, try not to get burned, and whatever you do, don't borrow to back up your position.

I should warn you that your higher forecast (lower number) looks like wishful thinking to me. (You know that the G20 are trying to get currencies to reflect the respective countries' economic strength, don't you?)

 

[JerseyBoy]

I hope you don't imagine you're George Soros because you've read a book and dabble in the forex market. Anyway, try not to get burned, and whatever you do, don't borrow to back up your position.

I was mocking him. A lowly trader who wants to be a philosopher.

I should warn you that your higher forecast (lower number) looks like wishful thinking to me. (You know that the G20 are trying to get currencies to reflect the respective countries' economic strength, don't you?)

I don't believe in the G20's announcements. Their remarks have not been backed up by the actual actions and policy implementation. If you look at their past proclamations, almost nothing has stuck. They tell you something after feasting on 5 star cuisine with lots of wine and booze (at the tax payer's expense). Then, everyone forgets about what they said in a few days later.

 

[Dogen Z]

omg, this guy is really full of himself. no time for him anymore, he's on the I list.

 

[JerseyBoy]

he's on the I list.

Thank god for that. The feeling is mutual, to say the least. I will surely miss your pompous boring comments.

 

[Hezam]

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

1 Saudi Riyal = 23.94750 Japanese Yen

1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.04176 Saudi Riyal

I did not expect that !! I think Japanese Yen should be like US Dollar or Euro !

 

[Astroboy]

Japanese YEN soar against USD and others. It has marked JPY86.52 per USD today, which is the highest in the past 14 years.

I don't understand why the currency of Debt-Laden Japan continues to soar in the world.

 

[Astroboy]

Yen Advances to 14-Year High on Risk Aversion, Stock Declines
The yen strengthened to a 14-year high against the dollar, climbing past 85 to the greenback and prompting speculation Japan will intervene to halt gains in the currency that are threatening the nation’s export-led recovery.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Dubai Tower is becoming a Tower of Bubble (not Babel).
If the Tower collapsed, many European financial companeis will collapse as they poured huge amount of money, making the bubble in Dubai. This may result in collapse of EU economy as EU already suffer from financial troubles in Eastern Europe.

After all, all was bubble.

 

[shinta]

When it meets the G20, the last thing is to make proclamations shooting ...... if you do not know seigniorage can not understand the markets and the relative movements of the tendency of countries ....

tell me what country the world has no debt, and which of these does not produce but buys its own currency?

Italy does not produce money, then buy government debt, Japan ditto, ditto USA, but who makes the money?
the corporate giants that control the central banks or national

PS
bubble = debt consolidation at the expense of poor private investors or institutions that

David

 

[Dogen Z]

Fixed Exchange Rate

If China can have a fixed exchange rate, why can't Japan? The Bank of Japan should peg the yen at about 100 yen per US$. That would greatly help the economy and make Japan more competitive in the region.

 

[Astroboy]

If China can have a fixed exchange rate, why can't Japan? The Bank of Japan should peg the yen at about 100 yen per US$. That would greatly help the economy and make Japan more competitive in the region.

Japan should make herself tougher, letting own manufacturing industry go ahead for further innovation, which is only way to go, I think. Competitiveness will not be attained by an easy choice.

China's USD-pegging policy is an easy choice of them. Probably it is only choice of them,
but it makes herself risker as the future of USD is dark. When the time come, China's USD-based saving/reserves may be halved or quarter.

 

[Astroboy]

When it meets the G20, the last thing is to make proclamations shooting ...... if you do not know seigniorage can not understand the markets and the relative movements of the tendency of countries ....

tell me what country the world has no debt, and which of these does not produce but buys its own currency?

Italy does not produce money, then buy government debt, Japan ditto, ditto USA, but who makes the money?
the corporate giants that control the central banks or national

PS
bubble = debt consolidation at the expense of poor private investors or institutions that

David

I don't understand your post well.

Italy does not produce money ...... you are right as Italy adopts Euro.
But Japan prints its own currecny ad USA do the same.

PS
Bubble = a fake demand of money for private sector to invest, I think. So, after bubble burst, public sector's spending is the only hope to maintain the economy.

 

[shinta]

Astroboy, I'm sorry if my post is unclear who work with the forex .... know what I mean

sorry for my English ... I use a translator .... then I will explain it all .... Meanwhile, an article on the web about the Japanese economic crisis .....

"The sensitivity of men New Age has finally arrived in the land of Salaryman. But there is a detail, an important feature in Japan, causing alarm at falling birth: the modern man does not seem interested in Japanese women and sex.
In Tokyo, the weekend, the trendy Harajuku area becomes a mixture of urban tribes: the goth lolita flying their false eyelashes, dazzling with their rebellion.
Away from quest'estetica outdated impositions, an army of men with sweet tight jeans and straightened hair. These Japanese are so-called "herbivores" (from the Japanese phrase "children grass eaters"): heterosexual, but apparently little interest in the "pleasures of the flesh."
They are attracted by the silence, life less competitive, focus on family and friends, avoiding the dictates of the traditional macho male Japanese.
Included Yukihiro Yoshida, a boy "-and twenty-something", a student of economics, which calls itself herbivore. "Do not take the initiative with the girls, do not talk with them," he says, blushing. "That would be ideal if a girl talks to me, but for my part I never do the first step."
Various studies say that 60% of Japanese from twenty to thirty calls himself "herbivore. Their Sex and the City is a television show called Otomen (boy effeminate). The protagonist is a martial arts expert, the guy most fake school. Her secret passions are sewing, making cakes and mending clothes for stuffed animals.
"Hide my nature," says the first episode, the identity that sews him secretly in his room. "At any moment I'll be a man, a real Japanese man."
But what does it mean? "It's not that long ago that men are becoming like women. And 'the idea of masculinity that is changing, "says Katsuhiro Kokobun. From his privileged position in Gruzzle, thanks to their beauty salon in Harajuku, Kokobun has seen a lot in terms of new trends.
Over the years has seen more and more people coming in his living room, people he calls "more modest, with less demand, as passive, they accept what is told." He noted that nowadays demand more distinctively feminine. "We eyebrows and facial for men," he smiles. "The reshaping of the eyebrows is very popular among students of high school."
So it is not a coincidence that Yasuhito Sekine eyebrows are shaped perfectly. Changing tastes is what interests him most in this period. He works for an internet service provider and operates in Sweets Club, an online group for men who like dessert. Operational since January, has a thousand registered members (online and in person), to discuss the virtues of various snacks strawberry. It 'something that defines Sekine unthinkable twenty years ago. Struck by his desire, taste the sweet jelly, peaches, praising. Not as strong as the coffee jelly with cream (a taste of real men, if ever one existed), labeling it "retro." Thinks that his club desserts show how young Japanese assert their individuality, reflecting their change in value against the Japanese boom of the 80s.
"Once (in fact 80 years), Japanese men were more passionate and aggressive, but now these features are despised. Our members have a gentle personality, say what he likes without prejudice, are not limited by expectations, "says Sekine, which describes itself herbivore. "In those days many men liked the dessert, but it was a thing to be jinxed. Do men liked tough alcohol or spicy foods. I discovered that my father liked the desserts, but never did peck.
Most expert of herbivores, Maki Fukasawa, believed to be born the last disastrous decade of economic stagnation. Christened as the tribe in 2006 and recently wrote a book called Generation herbivores, where they divided into 23 separate subcategories. Argues that they are a rebellion against the generation of employment for their parents, aware of veering away to the fees of their vigorous and consumerist age.
"They feel a sort of revulsion toward the older generations," says Fukusawa. "I do not want to have their lifestyle and their impact on the economy is very large. Now make much news because of low sales, especially on products such as cars and state-owned alcohol. "
He says that their arrival will bring positive changes are perhaps less competitive sense, but have a strong sense of community and family, which was lacking in their growing.
"In a sense, their fathers neglect their families. They were so immersed in the Japanese way of life of the employee, leaving every night with their boss, who closed the herbivores in their family and friends, "says Fukusawa.
But there is fear for financial and social impact of herbivores. Their low level of purchases and the lack of interest in sex relies on two of the biggest problems in Japan: the economy without light and the decline in births. They love to be friends with women, but for many of them nothing more.
On the streets of Harajuku, Fujita explains why Alex does not care to talk more: "Now women have much more education and immerse themselves in work. The women are now afraid. "
And, of course, there is also a label for the economic power to women working, women who know what they want, "women carnivorous.
With men and women carnivorous herbivores, it seems that the land of samurai, sumo wrestlers and geisha faces a whole new scenario. "

Funny, huh?

Moreover, the economy is on consumption

greetings from italy

 

[Dogen Z]

...Some mad awry rambling...

OMG, another Bimbo. He spreads a story concocted by 3rd rate writers needing to sell something to gullible masses, and crudely posts anywhere he pleases.

Hey Bo Bo, your rambling belongs in the Wai Wai section, and you belong on the ignore list. (whoa, he has at least 3 aliases, maybe more...what a coward.)

Anyway, have a nice day.

 

[Astroboy]

Foreign reserves at 1.07 tril. dollars; record high for 4th month
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20091208TDY06303.htm

Money automatically piles up .... another force to soar JPY, I think.

 

[ArmandV]

Japanese YEN soar against USD and others. It has marked JPY86.52 per USD today, which is the highest in the past 14 years.
I don't understand why the currency of Debt-Laden Japan continues to soar in the world.

Obama cheapened the dollar with his massive spending. The dollar is just printing-press money now.

 

[Dogen Z]

Obama cheapened the dollar with his massive spending. The dollar is just printing-press money now.

OTOH, if major governments in the world did not cooperate in a coordianted global fiscal stimulus, we would all be in a major worldwide depression by now. 10% unemployment--ppffff! It could have easily been over 20. The dollar is weak because of decades of U.S. overconsumption.