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Politics The Takaichi Sanae Thread - Japan's first female Prime Minister

So by their logic, we, the foreign residents, should start feeling guilty for the anxiety and unease our presence causes the Japanese people.
It would seem like it. Although some of this anxiety and unease is based on genuine concerns (overtourism, people being priced out of property hotspots, some foreigners committing crimes), a certain amount of it is based on old-fashioned racism (there's always a certain proportion of knuckleheads in a society who don't like people who look different). So we're expected to feel guilty about racists not being happy that we're in their country!
 
Holy buckets. That is a good point.
 
According to a Kyodo poll, Takaichi's support rate fell to 67.5%. Her approval rating held steady at 75% in the latest Nikkei/TV Tokyo survey, maintaining the 70% level for three consecutive months since the cabinet was formed. Those are heights any politician can dream of.


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As for the Bank of Japan's decision last week to raise its key policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, 55% of respondents nationwide said they approved of the move, surpassing the 26% who disapproved.

Ask those with variable-rate mortgages whether they like it.

I really wonder what those support rates are based on. Standing up to China?
 
The LDP's decision to install Takaichi as its leader and PM seems to be paying off: voters who had shifted to newer conservative parties are returning. Support for the LDP in a hypothetical national election has increased by about 40% over the past six months. The gains appear to be concentrated among voters who previously supported smaller right-wing parties. Many of them report a positive impression of PM Takaichi, indicating that her leadership is a key factor behind the shift.



 
I wonder why they mapped the unknown/no answer people as a shift to LDP.
 
I wonder why they mapped the unknown/no answer people as a shift to LDP.

Based on the graph, I'd say "unknown" refers to LDP voters who didn't state their former party affiliation. "Undecided" and "abstained" don't really make sense.
 
PM Takaichi kept even senior figures in her own party uncertain about whether she would move towards a snap election. While considering the option, she shared her thinking with only a small circle of trusted allies, telling senior party officials on Wednesday that the matter was still under review.

On Tuesday morning, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara met Liberal Democratic Party executives and suggested that the lower house could be dissolved at the opening of the Diet session on 23 January, adding that an announcement was likely around 19 January after a series of summits with visiting leaders. Closely aligned with Takaichi, Kihara was among the few insiders aware of her thinking and acted as an intermediary with ruling coalition leaders as she remained publicly silent.
At that stage, no final decision had been made. Although Takaichi contacted party leaders around 2.00 pm to say that immediate dissolution was one possible option and urged them to be prepared, she stopped short of committing. Kihara then sounded out the leaders of the LDP and the coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party. Takaichi is believed to have settled on dissolving the lower house later on Tuesday night, consulting only a handful of advisers, including Takaya Imai, a Cabinet Secretariat special adviser and former aide to Shinzo Abe, her political mentor. The tightly controlled process is seen as carrying the risk of widening divisions within the LDP.



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Interesting times ahead in Japan's political landscape: the two main opposition parties, CDPJ and Komeito, agreed to form a new party to run in a likely snap election in February.


The agreement is presented as an attempt to bring centrist parties together and form a united front against the conservative ruling bloc led by the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party. The move comes as PM Takaichi, known for her tough security views, continues to record high approval ratings, adding to expectations of a broader political shake-up. Senior figures in the ruling camp say an election is likely on 8 February, with campaigning set to begin on 27 January.


The backing of Soka Gakkai is estimated to be worth around 10,000 to 20,000 votes in each constituency. With the CDPJ supported by Japan's biggest umbrella group for labour unions, the new party could have a strong base to compete.


 
The name of the new centrist party is Chūdō Kaikaku Rengō (中道改革連合, Centrist Reform Alliance):

A cut to the consumption tax is set to be a central policy of Chūdō Kaikaku Rengō, the new centrist party created through the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito. The party's launch was announced at the Diet on 16 January by Yoshihiko Noda, head of the former main opposition CDP, and Tetsuo Saito. The group will use "Centrist Reform Alliance" as its English name, with "Chudo" as its official abbreviation, and is expected to unveil its policy platform on 19 January.

Noda pointed to a lower consumption tax on selected items, including food, along with reductions in social insurance premiums, as key priorities. The party name was chosen to reflect a stance that avoids alignment with either the right or the left, emphasising solutions reached through careful debate, practical reform grounded in everyday concerns, and an open structure that welcomes broad participation.






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The campaigning hasn't started, but the LDP starts with pre-election sweeteners:

PM Takaichi is weighing whether to include a pledge to temporarily cut the consumption tax on food to 0%, down from the current 8%, in her party's campaign platform for an expected House of Representatives election, according to government and party sources. A time-limited suspension of the food tax has already been outlined in the coalition agreement between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party. Officials say the agreement's provisions are likely to feature prominently in the campaign.

Fumitake Fujita, a co-leader of the Japan Innovation Party, reiterated his party's long-standing position in Tokyo on Saturday, backing a two-year zero-rate tax on food. If the ruling camp secures a win in a lower house election that could be held as early as February, it is considering submitting a tax reform bill that includes the measure at an extraordinary session of the Diet convened after the vote. The change could take effect as early as January 2027, the sources said.


The opposition parties aren't amused:

 
Why two years? Either food should have sales tax because the revenue is needed, or it shouldn't because it's an essential. I lean towards the latter, but both are tenable. Removing sales tax for two years benefits nobody in the long term, and it's not as if the government will turn around 30 years of stagnant economy and falling living standards in the next two years.
 
I heard today that Takaichi's husband is named Yamamoto.

But then I also read: (wikipedia)
  • 2004年の結婚後から2017年の離婚までは、高市は改姓して本名「山本早苗」となったが、旧姓を通称として「高市早苗」を名乗って活動していた。
  • 2017年に「政治的スタンスの違いから」離婚したが[508]、2021年12月に再婚した(山本は同年10月の選挙で落選していた)。再婚時には山本が高市姓に改姓し、「高市拓」が本名となった[509]。その際の夫婦の姓は一発勝負のじゃんけんで決めたという
 
My wife added some comments:


I'll add that my wife didn't change her name to mine when we got married (38th anniversary coming in a matter of days). This was possible since I'm a foreigner, with no koseki here (I'm on hers, in parentheses). Back then, and all along, she found this liberating (a progressive woman, but supports Takaichi now). This caused a little extra work when our kids were born, since they took her name--but we later went to family court for each one and had theirs changed to mine.
 
Abe-era corruption and nepotism are rearing their heads again.

 
When you think things can't get worse.


 
Today, Japanese media reported that PM Takaichi's approval ratings have taken a dent:

Public support for PM Takaichi has weakened in the latest opinion polls ahead of a national election next month, which she has positioned as a judgment on her leadership of the world's fourth-largest economy. Polling released on Monday by the Nikkei showed approval of her administration falling to 67%, down from 75% in December and below 70% for the first time since she took office as Japan's first female prime minister in October. Other surveys pointed in the same direction. A Kyodo voter poll put approval at 63%, down from 68%, while a Mainichi Shimbun survey reported a sharper 10-point decline to 57%.

By dissolving the lower house and calling an early election for all 465 seats, Takaichi is attempting to turn her personal standing into backing for her expansionary fiscal agenda and to consolidate her authority within the ruling LDP. The party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, currently hold a one-seat majority. The polling also points to growing unease over her economic programme. In the Nikkei survey, 56% of respondents said they did not believe the proposed stimulus package would ease the pressure from rising living costs. At the same time, concerns in financial markets that additional government borrowing may be required to fund the measures have driven up Japanese government bond yields.




More from Tobias Harris:

 
All the signs indicate that a substantial win by the LDP would be dangerous for Japan. Takaichi's recent endorsement of Mio Sugita and various scandal-hit members and nasty pieces of work, not to mention Taro Aso lurking in the background casting his baleful eye over everything, indicates exactly the sort of party she would lead if given unlimited power. I'm all for another hung parliament, where politicians are at least forced to cooperate.
 
What issues caused Komeito to break away from the LDP?
 
I'm all for another hung parliament, where politicians are at least forced to cooperate.

Most polls suggest otherwise.


According to Sankei and Daily Shincho, 20% of Kōmeitō voters will vote for the LDP. Roughly 70% of people who voted for the CDP last year and 60% who voted for Kōmeitō said that they will back the new opposition party, the CRA.

Based on a national survey using random-digit dialling that collected 117,533 responses, Nikkei and the Daily Yomiuri report that the LDP stands a chance of winning an absolute majority, picking up at least 35 seats relative to its 198 seats before the election.




According to Nikkei Asia, the LDP could gain a majority of the 465 seats in the Feb. 8 lower house election, up from 198, according to a new Nikkei poll conducted immediately after the election announcement. Meanwhile, the Centrist Reform Alliance -- newly formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party and Kōmeitō -- is expected to decline from its pre-campaign total of 167 seats.


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