Japan May Shoot Down North Korean Missile

[ArmandV]

Japan said that if the North Korean missile that is to be launched next month comes into Japanese territory they will reserve the right to shoot it down.

North Korea said they will consider such a shootdown an "act of war."

Japan May Shoot Down North Korean Missile

 

[Dogen Z]

If a country shoots a rocket into your country's air space, and you have a military with advanced weaponry but does nothing about it, that military is not worth much, is it?

N. Korea's provocative act is attempt to show how weak Japan is, and it will have an effect on the Japanese population. Japan will become increasingly hawkish. The Japanese do not like being perceived as "heiwa boke."

 

[Elizabeth]

If a country shoots a rocket into your country's air space, and you have a military with advanced weaponry but does nothing about it, that military is not worth much, is it?
N. Korea's provocative act is attempt to show how weak Japan is, and it will have an effect on the Japanese population. Japan will become increasingly hawkish. The Japanese do not like being perceived as "heiwa boke."

The challenging stance is designed less to threaten Japan directly and more to demonstrate North Korean leader Kim Jong-il''s efforts at solidifying his own regime, in my opinion, particularly bolstering internal security vis-a-vis the military. If they are intent on testing a long range missile, by accident of geography, East over Japan is essentially the only direction that makes sense without touching China or the South.

So all in all, a playbook for the way of survival from a position of real weakness. How far can we push before more concessions for a nuclear deal becomes nullifying the disarmament agreement already in place ? And either way gamble the rocket gets airborne and is successful to the point hardliners rally to prolong your totalitarian state.

 

[Dogen Z]

Law suit

Okay, N. Korea shot its missile and it didn't hit me. But it scared me to hell. So I want to file a lawsuit for distress, but I know Kim won't pay even if I win so I'd like a lien on all oil shipments to the country. OTOH, if he coughs up about the abduction issue, I might be willing to drop the lawsuit.

 

[Kappa]

If they are intent on testing a long range missile, by accident of geography, East over Japan is essentially the only direction that makes sense without touching China or the South.

There's also the fact that it's easier to orbit a payload firing it to the east, because the Earth's rotation helps a lot in reaching the required speed. Personally I doubt that's their true rationale, but it gives them a little more deniability.

The early analysis suggests that first-stage separation went pretty smoothly, so they're making progress. I still can't link, but "Space Daily" has some good write-ups.

It also mentions that Russia and China are both "urging restraint" in the international reaction.

 

[Elizabeth]

Okay, N. Korea shot its missile and it didn't hit me. But it scared me to hell. So I want to file a lawsuit for distress, but I know Kim won't pay even if I win so I'd like a lien on all oil shipments to the country. OTOH, if he coughs up about the abduction issue, I might be willing to drop the lawsuit.

I appreciate it must look very different if it's flying directly over you, but seriously, getting that excited by a rocket only feeds anti-N Korea sentiments in Japan and makes further progress on abduction issue (another hysteria issue) less likely. Just gives the North one more button they can push to get attention and create issues for which the West convinces itself it must negotiate.


All we need now is the technology to covertly jam the launch or blow it up over the Sea of Japan so it looks like nothing more than a technological system failure.

 

[Glenski]

In NK's eye, this was a spectacular success:

1. They accomplished a launch and separation.
2. Japan looks like a wimp to them even more now.
3. The USA looks like a toothless police dog, too.

Elizabeth,
Naw, let's not jam the launch. Let's just divert it to Kim Jon Il's house.

Wonder what was in the payload?
Wonder what is in the NK news now about all this? Any expats there care to translate?

 

[Half-n-Half]

Now that North Korea has launched the missile I wonder what the world will do. It makes you think if talks will really work. I hope the UN can pressure Kim Jong Il, but it is doubtful. It also brings into question President Obama's decision to cut missile defense spending, kind of ironic.

Wonder what is in the NK news now about all this? Any expats there care to translate?

Was this a subtle mote of sarcasm?

 

[ArmandV]

Besides Japan looking wimpy, the U.S. (or at least Obama) looks wimpy with his response of taking it to the U.N.

 

[Hezam]

America will not do nothing if NK attacked Japan.
Japan should depend on itself.

 

[Elizabeth]

Basically, the US has no good options. The six-party talks will not result in denuclearization, not any time soon at least. Ignoring North Korea
raises the prospect that North Korea will up the ante in its bid for attention.

Boxing in the regime through tougher sanctions only feeds anti-N Korea sentiments in Japan and the US, not to mention risking regime collapse altogether. Plus it just gives the North one more button they can push to get attention and create issues for which the West convinces itself it must negotiate. There is no good option available to the US, Japan, and South Korea, especially in the absence of more Chinese pressure.

And the North is without question making progress with its missile technology. While the satellite launch may have failed, this rocket still flew more than twice the distance of previous long-range missile tests. So China should be worried. Any move to develop longer-range missiles, particularly rockets that could reach their mainland, could spark a new arms race in the region. And there have been calls already in both Japan and South Korea for those countries to begin developing a pre-emptive strike capability. At the very least US and the neighbors in particular should be devoting considerable energy preparing for the consequences of a possible NK regime collapse.

The only course of action at this point may be getting a token a resolution out of the Security Council and doing whatever possible to coax North Korea open while waiting for 6 party talks to resume. China and Russia have more leverage as a result of their trade relationship with the country, but tightening sanctions doesn't seem to be the way to go either since those have only made the suffering of the people greater. In any case, the top priority of the Chinese seem to be to preserve the North Korean state as a buffer between it and the U.S. sphere of influence. China clearly wants reform from North Korea, just not at the expense of it as a viable state.

So the ball in now firmly in the court of the DPRK. Let them know we're interested in restarting negotiations over the nuclear issues, give them plenty of incentives to cooperate and then spend as little time as possible on this subject before dropping it. We have a lot more important things to worry about than calling the North Korea's bluffs over a puny bomb. Once and for all, it's time to stop playing their game.

 

[Hezam]

I wonder why America still watching North Korea !!
They Should stop N-Korea,I dont want to see Japan bombing again by the Automic bombs.
Why doesnt America give Japan some weapons to protect the people ?

 

[Elizabeth]

Besides Japan looking wimpy, the U.S. (or at least Obama) looks wimpy with his response of taking it to the U.N.

The Japanese military was ordered to shoot down any missile fragments and debris that was falling towards the island and would have posed a risk to residents on the ground. You're saying they would have looked stronger firing off a string of interceptors to shoot down any rocket heading for its territory and still very likely missing by a mile ?


In any regard, I'm tired of arguing the point. The Japanese people by and large support the government on this issue and are applauding the decision to go to the UN and work closely with the US and other countries.