Society Japan’s depopulation crisis: 2035 tipping point for urban population

[thomas]

Within a decade, Japan is expected to experience a decline in urban populations as ageing societies threaten city sustainability and drive demands for immigration reform:

Japan's long-standing concerns about a shrinking population, particularly in rural areas dominated by elderly residents, are set to escalate. One analyst warns that even the country's major urban centres will soon experience population decline. In Future Atlas: What Happens in Japan with a Declining Population, Masashi Kawai predicts that by 2035, nearly all of Japan's major cities—except Tokyo—will reach a tipping point for population loss. Some smaller cities are expected to see declines even earlier. Kawai's analysis highlights that by 2020, nine major cities, including Kitakyushu, Kobe, Kyoto , and Osaka, had already recorded population decreases compared to 2015. By 2025, Sendai, Yokohama, and Kumamoto will follow, with Nagoya, Sapporo, Hiroshima, and Okayama experiencing similar trends by 2035.

While some larger cities will avoid contraction by absorbing people from surrounding areas, that source of additional population will be depleted within the next decade, according to Kawai. Population loss will not be the only challenge for these urban areas by 2035, but also the need to cater to a growing elderly population. In a decade, 34.8 per cent of Kobe's residents will be elderly, with Sapporo, Shizuoka and Kitakyushu close behind at 34.6 per cent. Among the 20 designated cities examined by Kawai, all will have an elderly population exceeding 25 per cent.

Japan’s 2035 tipping point looms as cities set to shrink amid population ageing

Japan faces urban population decline by 2035, with ageing societies challenging city sustainability and prompting calls for immigration reform.

www.scmp.com

『未来の年表　人口減少日本でこれから起きること』（河合　雅司）：講談社現代新書　製品詳細　講談社BOOK倶楽部

日本が人口減少社会にあることは「常識」。だが、その実態を正確に知る人はどのくらいいるだろうか？　第１部では「人口減少カレンダー」とし、2017年から2065年頃まで、いったい何が起こるのかを、時系列に沿って、かつ体系的に示した。第２部では、第１部で取り上げた問題への対策を「10の処方箋」として、なるべく具体的に提示した。本書は、これからの日本社会・日本経済を真摯に考えるうえでの必読書となる。 　日本が人口減少社会にあることは「常識」。だが、その実態を正確に知る人はどのくらいいるだろうか？...

bookclub.kodansha.co.jp

 

[Lothor]

Slightly off-topic, but European countries are also facing this problem and will soon require greater immigration to sustain their populations. There's a fascinating map here that shows predicted European populations in 2100 with and without migration. Countries that develop rational policies to encourage sustainable numbers of migrants to settle and integrate are going to do better than those with hysterical leaders who claim that they're a threat and will eat your pets.

Europe’s population crisis: see how your country compares – visualised

How anti-immigration politics across the EU clashes with demographic reality

www.theguardian.com