How do you think of today's China?

[Nebiki]

This isn't directly related to China but raises an interesting question:
I wonder if anybody predicted the downfall of the Soviet Union?
Or, at the time, it seemed as if there was no stopping the economical and arms capable giant.

 

[Keoland]

Modern China is, literally, a nation that is returning to its rightful place after a slumber of centuries.

Thanks to a flexibility of mind which the Soviets did not possess, China has been able to successfully combine a fair number of decent policies that are allowing the country to start to tap into its true resources.

There are still many discrepancies, especially between the coast and the interior, and these will take time to stabilize. But things don't seem so bad. They certainly looked far worse decades ago.

Politics apart, China is one of the freest nations in the world - many 'democracies' could learn a thing or two about how overregulated their citizens' lives are.

The political future holds some uncertainties, as the initial model of Chairman Mao is outdated, but it seems clear China will eventually develop a 'Chinese Way' that will be different from the odd system the US is trying to propose on the world.

What many in China probably don't realize is that the world was economically not ready to the return of the Dragon. In the sense that chinese demand is making commodity prices skyrocket (more competition to buy them), while chinese labour puts an immense pressure on the workforce of the 'industrialized' nations, whose wages are far higher.

This is not percieved well in China, but indirectly they will create a massive social unrest in Europe (and probably Japan). A bit like when China defeated the Hsiung-nu barbarians, unaware that they would flee West and eventually lead to the fall of the Western Roman Empire as the Huns.

Culturally speaking, China has all the abilities to overshadow America in the future. Japan has already shown the influence an Asian nation can have, and China has far more potential (though a different sensibility - the chinese are more 'artistic' and have a greater penchant for coloured works than the japanese).

As for the Taiwan issue, I don't see a problem there. If all continues as it is now, the mainland and the island will calmly end their civil strife within some decades, the ramblings of Chen Shui-bian notwhitstanding. I do not see a war there, and I suspect neither the US does.

In other words, things are humming along decently well

True, there are problems on all levels, and not all policies are sound, but no nation is free of government errors. Better factories and energy plants have to be built, the production must increase, wages must rise, disparities between the cities and the countryside must be addressed, there is a lot to build, the military needs an overhaul, the relations between the provinces and the central government need looking into, some projects should really be revised... but the historical dynamism is certainly in motion, and China is the future.

I wonder if anybody predicted the downfall of the Soviet Union?

Well, I actually did - but I concede that few saw it coming. And she fell far more easily than I thought it would. I feared a civil war for some years.

Regards,
Keoland

 

[innerfire]

Keoland:
Thank you for sharing your balanced insights with us...

btw: I remember not quite clearly that you've ever mentioned in one of your previous post that you work for Xinhua Agency, it that right?

 

[Void]

This isn't directly related to China but raises an interesting question:
I wonder if anybody predicted the downfall of the Soviet Union?
Or, at the time, it seemed as if there was no stopping the economical and arms capable giant.

predicted, some russian sociologists and historians, and some western

arms capable, but economical - quite questionable. Besides every empire is destined to fall apart. SU was empire of colonial type only with parts allocated at one geographical region, no different otherwise