COVID-19 Coronavirus: global situation

[mdchachi]

Its the old and infirm that need to shut their lives down and isolate...not the rest of us.

That's one of the most ignorant things you've said on this thread. It's the relatively young mobile and "healthy" that are spreading it and why we are in the situation we are in. And many younger people are getting sick enough to be hospitalized and require ventilators. It's not an elderly and infirm problem.

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart — Vox

Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on a similar course.

apple.news

 

[Mark of Zorro]

That's one of the most ignorant things you've said on this thread. It's the relatively young mobile and "healthy" that are spreading it and why we are in the situation we are in. And many younger people are getting sick enough to be hospitalized and require ventilators. It's not an elderly and infirm problem.

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart — Vox

Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on a similar course.

apple.news

EVERYONE is spreading it. But the old and infirm are getting it because they are allowing themselves to be exposed to others. If I were one of them I would not be out and about or getting close to anyone who was. But guess what? Someone has to do the shopping and also the bread winning or there is no bread.

Many younger people?? How many? And I notice you decided to drop off my statement about other medical conditions...young people have those too.

Also, "many" young people die from influenza. But we did not shut down the world for them.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/grade-12-student-winnipeg-dies-complications-influenza-1.5425612

The Flu Killed a Healthy 21-Year-Old Man

Here's how that can happen

time.com

How Common Is It to Die of the Flu?

It's more common than you might think.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Grandpa Frank]

Short break for a possible smile.

 

[Majestic]

In fact, it was a story about how the Italian health system was being overwhelmed, which is presumably why they weren't discussing recovery rates. Even people in recovery are using hospital resources and are unable to work or shop (or fly airplanes, or unload luggage, or staff airline counters, etc). Moreover, many people do not want to fly if they suspect the crew and the 300 of their fellow passengers may be asymptomatic carriers of the virus. In Italy it is small comfort that a numerical majority of people have few symptoms, because so many people are sick that their hospitals cannot cope, the physicians are exhausted, and medical supplies are running low.

It is these asymptomatic carriers who are particularly worrying, as they are the ones out enjoying hanami, riding the trains, going to work, and silently spreading the disease to people, a portion of whom will not be asymptomatic. In New York, the majority of cases are people who are between 19 and 49 years old - far from retirement age.

Again, at the risk of repeating myself (I will not complain about getting tired of having to do this, as it is important) the discussion is not on the individual survival rate rate, it is on the likelihood of a very large percentage of the population getting it, and a large number of the population taxing the health system, or being too sick to engage in productive activity. Increasingly the discussion is on how the untested and asymptomatic may be driving the acceleration of the disease.

 

[Mansoor]

Some recent news titles:

Cuban authorities proclaimed, they will send a medical team to Italy for help. Italy also closed all its seaports gates.

China tests its new Corona vaccine on the volunteer Chinese citizens.

Mahdi Mohammadi one of the individual Iranian political interpreters wrote in his personal page in Tweeter:
" Iran because of its hard engaging with corona virus, requested decreasing America economic sanctions versus people of Iran in this emergency situation. America not only didn't do that but also applied three new terms of sanctions to the previous trade and banking sanctions! Now, Iran should fight with two issues simultaneously; Corona virus, and the difficulties of the unfair economic sanctions."

Germany organizations warned about bankruptcy of hospitals in this country, because of corona virus epidemic. Germany, Spanish and Italy are now the worst areas of increasing the number of corona patients in Europe.


The approval of FDA about testing two types of medicine versus Corona disease.


Russia requested canceling the economic sanctions of America against Iranians.

Turkish canceled its flights to 46 countries.


Russia sent its medical and financial aids to Italy.


The corona infection epidemic is equal in the young and old people.


Based on international hygiene organization (WHO) report ; up to now, about 234000 citizens of the world are infected by corona virus that 10000 of them have lost their souls.

 

[mdchachi]

EVERYONE is spreading it. But the old and infirm are getting it because they are allowing themselves to be exposed to others. If I were one of them I would not be out and about or getting close to anyone who was. But guess what? Someone has to do the shopping and also the bread winning or there is no bread.

Many younger people?? How many? And I notice you decided to drop off my statement about other medical conditions...young people have those too.

Also, "many" young people die from influenza. But we did not shut down the world for them.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/grade-12-student-winnipeg-dies-complications-influenza-1.5425612

The Flu Killed a Healthy 21-Year-Old Man

Here's how that can happen

time.com

How Common Is It to Die of the Flu?

It's more common than you might think.

www.newsweek.com

You're missing the point. Especially obvious since you keep parroting all this BS about influenza. Influenza is not overwhelming our hospitals. It's not an intellectual debate. The evidence is already there. Plain to see

But if all the reference material posted here or otherwise available just about anywhere doesn't convince you, nothing I can say will help.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Influenza is not overwhelming our hospitals.

Neither is corona overwhelming YOUR hospitals. Its overwhelming SOME hospitals in places you aren't.

Especially obvious since you keep parroting all this BS about influenza.

Its not BS. Its fact and comparison.

I suspect you don't like it because its a buzz kill more than anything.

It's not an intellectual debate.

A debate of idiots then?

Well I have said my piece. If you wish to continue panicking and believing I am either wrong or a total bore for not panicking with you, then go ahead. I am sick of this.

 

[mdchachi]

Back to the topic of Japan, here's the Japan curve and you can use this site to look anywhere else too.

COVID19info.live

Real-time updates on infections, deaths & recoveries from the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) + Latest News

covid19info.live

Also interesting graph re Italy.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

It is these asymptomatic carriers who are particularly worrying

Only to those who should not be out and about such as the elderly and the infirm.

I don't know what is so hard to understand about the minority changing their behavior to save themselves rather than the majority changing their behavior to save the minority.....particularly when the majority changing their behavior can have other negative major impacts on the minority.

 

[bentenmusume]

It is these asymptomatic carriers who are particularly worrying, as they are the ones out enjoying hanami, riding the trains, going to work, and silently spreading the disease to people, a portion of whom will not be asymptomatic.

To be fair, the Japanese government is not imposing (or even strongly recommending) self-quarantining or social distancing, nor are they shutting down restaurants, bars, and so forth. Events are being canceled, large gatherings discouraged, and people are of course being encouraged to be circumspect and vigilant with regards to personal hygiene, etc. etc., but nobody here (both in terms of the authorities, or in terms of general public opinion) is publicly shaming anyone for going about living, working, and enjoying their lives to a reasonable degree.

Are you suggesting that the vast majority of the Japanese populace should voluntarily adopt the extreme measures being practiced (or mandated) in other countries despite the fact that here, on the ground at least, there does not seem to be an urgent need to do so? Because honestly, I find that to be a hard sell. In fact, many people I know are going out of their way to get together with friends (in small groups) and support local restaurants/izakayas/etc. as a way of combating the vague corona-related economic and social malaise, and personally speaking, I find that attitude somewhat refreshing.

Perhaps a catastrophic spread and death toll is forthcoming and Japan is just waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's certainly possible. But until I have a clear and immediate reason to believe that's what's coming, I don't really see the point in working myself into a panic, and this is an attitude that seems to be shared by most of the Japanese people around me.

(Then again, I grant that I tend to be rather fatalistic about these things, which I think can tend to be a prevailing attitude among the Japanese people as well.)

 

[Lothor]

Another informative article about the situation in Japan. This is from Safecast, who were very good in providing detailed information on radiation back in 2011 when the government abjectly failed to do so.

COVID-19 Testing in Japan: The situation and ramifications – Safecast

safecast.org

 

[Lothor]

To be fair, the Japanese government is not imposing (or even strongly recommending) self-quarantining or social distancing, nor are they shutting down restaurants, bars, and so forth. Events are being canceled, large gatherings discouraged, and people are of course being encouraged to be circumspect and vigilant with regards to personal hygiene, etc. etc., but nobody here (both in terms of the authorities, or in terms of general public opinion) is publicly shaming anyone for going about living, working, and enjoying their lives to a reasonable degree.

Are you suggesting that the vast majority of the Japanese populace should voluntarily adopt the extreme measures being practiced (or mandated) in other countries despite the fact that here, on the ground at least, there does not seem to be an urgent need to do so? Because honestly, I find that to be a hard sell. In fact, many people I know are going out of their way to get together with friends (in small groups) and support local restaurants/izakayas/etc. as a way of combating the vague corona-related economic and social malaise, and personally speaking, I find that attitude somewhat refreshing.

Perhaps a catastrophic spread and death toll is forthcoming and Japan is just waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's certainly possible. But until I have a clear and immediate reason to believe that's what's coming, I don't really see the point in working myself into a panic, and this is an attitude that seems to be shared by most of the Japanese people around me.

(Then again, I grant that I tend to be rather fatalistic about these things, which I think can tend to be a prevailing attitude among the Japanese people as well.)

I need more convincing why Japan should be an exception, particularly in a country that is very prone to problem avoidance, has a particularly strong incentive to do so (the Olympics), has a postwar history of putting economics above people (newspapers and NHK keep leading with what is happening to the Dow Jones index - as if most Japanese people care!), and has been doing relatively little testing. For now, I'm assuming that the number of cases is growing rapidly whatever is being reported.

 

[bentenmusume]

Just so there's no misunderstanding here, I'm not necessarily convinced that Japan is an exception. I'm simply assessing the situation for myself on the basis of what I'm hearing and seeing, from the reactions of those around me. (While granting that I also have a sort of tendency toward fatalism...and perhaps problem avoidance as well.)

That said, I get the sense that many Japanese are already convinced that the Olympics will be at least postponed, especially given how many other major sporting events are already being postponed or outright canceled. Even Abe himself and members of the cabinet are rumored to having admitted as much in private. If they're risking a serious outbreak just to put on the face that the Olympics still might happen...well, I'm just not seeing it. I think that ship has already sailed. I mean, even if Japan escapes the worst, you're talking about bringing in athletes from all over the world, including many countries that are imposing strict quarantines and travel bans.

As for "putting economics above people", I've expressed this sentence elsewhere in the thread, but are these necessarily mutually exclusive? I'm not talking about the Dow or the Nikkei index, but Japan has a huge service industry, and shuttering all restaurants and izakaya in Tokyo for an indefinite period of time could potentially put countless people out of work and/or out of business. If the Japanese government has decided that the sacrifice isn't worth it given the current situation, I can't necessarily say that's clearly the wrong decision. (Mind you, I'm not about to say for certain that it's the right one, either.)

 

[Majestic]

Are you suggesting that...

I think it might be prudent, yes. Not realistic, I know, but yes I think it would be prudent to practice a bit more social distancing. And if it won't happen voluntarily, then yes the government ought to step in and mandate some kind of quarantine or isolation. There are already enough examples of what could happen when a locale gets this wrong. Wuhan was an extreme example. Iran and Italy are two others. On the opposite end, I'm very impressed with how Korea has handled this, and also Taiwan and Singapore. Japan is an anomaly to me. Echoing what Lothar says above, we know the Japanese numbers are low because the number of tests are low. If you do not test, you will have low numbers, and the low numbers reinforce a false sense of security. So people start looking for alternate narratives: maybe Japan's numbers are low because of good hygiene, or mask-wearing, or just some miraculous good luck.

I want Japan to be the lucky nation. I want Japan's shops to stay open, and for economic activity to continue. My livelihood here depends upon it But wishful thinking isn't good enough. I would prefer to see more aggressive testing. I would like to know that the guy who got sick at work just has the flu, rather than something else, because now I not only have to worry about the scratch in the back of my own throat (did I catch it? am I spreading it?), but I also have a dilemma about whether or not to shut the shop down. In the end, I have a responsibility to protect my staff and our contacts, and myself, so the shop gets shut down.

Unfortunately any reaction that works, will look like an overreaction in hindsight. "Nothing bad happened, therefore it was dumb and economically damaging to quarantine everyone". On the other hand, any under-reaction will be disastrous. I don't see how Italy recovers from this, and I look very nervously at New York and California. And I look very nervously at the Japan numbers.

So, the clear reason will not come until it is too late, I fear. There is already a government report that projects Osaka and Hyogo will have 586 cases by March 27th, and 3000 cases by April 3rd. As of yesterday they had 232 (officially). And I guess they will add an official 20 or so people every day, so by the 27th they may have 386 "official" cases. If they test more, the number will be higher, but already the incentive to under-report is enormous. So, yes I think it would be super prudent for everyone to take this very seriously, and if that isn't practical or effective, yes the government should step in. (I know there is a hot debate about this on the chat shows, with ex-Osaka governor Hashimoto weighing in). Is shutting down all businesses nationwide the right response? I don't know. Could a less draconian response still be effective in "flattening the curve"? I don't know that either. I will only know in hindsight.

 

[mdchachi]

Neither is corona overwhelming YOUR hospitals. Its overwhelming SOME hospitals in places you aren't.

That is the exact point. It's overwhelming hospitals in regions that didn't take quick action.
Hospitals in my area aren't overwhelmed... yet. Even though my state took action it's not at all clear if it will be enough.
I'm in the reddest county of my state. By red I don't mean the GOP, I mean the county with the most cases.
We've had our first deaths and now too many cases to track. Initially they said, the person was at such and such a place and gave us that information. Now they just say there are so many, just assume infected people are all around.

Its not BS. Its fact and comparison.

I suspect you don't like it because its a buzz kill more than anything.

You haven't actually disputed any of the articles about why Covid-19 is not like the flu. Where are you getting your medical information? From some conspiracy forum on reddit? All the reputable articles say something like this:

Covid-19 is much more dangerous than the seasonal flu.
For starters, it's more contagious. The average person, even with mild symptoms, is likely to spread the disease to more than two people. By contrast, the seasonal flu's rate is roughly half.
In addition, the incubation period of the coronavirus is 2-14 days, with some suspicions that it could be even longer than that. The flu incubation period is usually 1-4 days, and in extreme cases, it can range up to five days. This means that the period in which the virus can be transmitted is around 3 times higher than influenza, which also helps to explain why it's so contagious.
In addition, there are some asymptomatic cases, but they can still spread the disease, making it very difficult to keep track of all Covid-19 cases. Add a potentially high reinfection rate and you end up with a disease that's far more contagious and insidious than the flu.
It's not just the spread of disease, either — the other major reason why officials are so worried about Covid-19 is that it is lethal far more often than influenza. The seasonal flu is lethal in less than 0.1% of all cases, compared to 1-2% for COVID-19 — this makes it closer to the infamous 1918 influenza epidemic known as the "Spanish flu," which infected a quarter of a planed and had a kill rate of about 2.5%.

Well I have said my piece. If you wish to continue panicking and believing I am either wrong or a total bore for not panicking with you, then go ahead. I am sick of this.

You've also brought up this thing about panicking several times. Who's panicking? All I'm doing is believing the epidemiologists and staying home.
I did pick up some long shelf life groceries in case it's needed. I figure I can donate it come fall if it's not used.
I went grocery shopping today, at the busiest time which probably wasn't prudent. But I'm not a morning person so sleeping in took precedence.
The store is mostly stocked with some things being constantly low this past couple of weeks, specifically meat and bread and some frozen and canned foods.
So people are buying a lot more than they usually do but it's hardly a panic.
I did see a guy with an entire cart full of Mountain Dew and Pepsi 2 liters today but it was a half price sale and you had to buy them in units of 4 to get that price so it made sense. Probably a combination of stocking due to the sale and buying more than he normally does due to the "panic."

If you're so confident, I challenge you to head to Roppongi and hang out there and party for the weekend. (You probably don't live near there but that's no excuse, transportation in Japan is very good. Very easy to get to from most places.)

By the way, when I saw this, you're the first person I thought of.

 

[mdchachi]

Just so there's no misunderstanding here, I'm not necessarily convinced that Japan is an exception. I'm simply assessing the situation for myself on the basis of what I'm hearing and seeing, from the reactions of those around me. (While granting that I also have a sort of tendency toward fatalism...and perhaps problem avoidance as well.)

That said, I get the sense that many Japanese are already convinced that the Olympics will be at least postponed, especially given how many other major sporting events are already being postponed or outright canceled. Even Abe himself and members of the cabinet are rumored to having admitted as much in private. If they're risking a serious outbreak just to put on the face that the Olympics still might happen...well, I'm just not seeing it. I think that ship has already sailed. I mean, even if Japan escapes the worst, you're talking about bringing in athletes from all over the world, including many countries that are imposing strict quarantines and travel bans.

As for "putting economics above people", I've expressed this sentence elsewhere in the thread, but are these necessarily mutually exclusive? I'm not talking about the Dow or the Nikkei index, but Japan has a huge service industry, and shuttering all restaurants and izakaya in Tokyo for an indefinite period of time could potentially put countless people out of work and/or out of business. If the Japanese government has decided that the sacrifice isn't worth it given the current situation, I can't necessarily say that's clearly the wrong decision. (Mind you, I'm not about to say for certain that it's the right one, either.)

Hard to imagine any realistic scenario now where the Olympics will be held on time. Even if Japan is unscathed, many other countries are losing major training time and will fight to postpone. It won't be up to Japan it will be up to the IOC.

As for the Japanese government making some calculations based on economics vs health that could be true. Hopefully they've thought it through and have clear trigger points and a sensible plan in place. It's not like they didn't take any action. They were one of the first to cancel stadium size crowds and close schools. Even the beloved high school baseball tournament was cancelled.

 

[Majestic]

Only to those who should not be out and about such as the elderly and the infirm.

I don't know what is so hard to understand about the minority changing their behavior to save themselves rather than the majority changing their behavior to save the minority.....particularly when the majority changing their behavior can have other negative major impacts on the minority.

You are assuming that it is only the elderly and the infirm who are at risk. Data from the CDC shows that 55% of the hospitalizations in the US are from people aged 20 to 64. And if the elderly and infirm cannot get out and about, who shoulders the burden of shopping and doing errands for them, and what negative effects does that have on the economy? When the old folks homes shut down because the young people doing the administration, the staffing, the cooking and the cleaning, have to quit because they might be asymptomatic, what effect does that have on the economy?

 

[Lothor]

I get the sense that many Japanese are already convinced that the Olympics will be at least postponed, especially given how many other major sporting events are already being postponed or outright canceled. Even Abe himself and members of the cabinet are rumored to having admitted as much in private. If they're risking a serious outbreak just to put on the face that the Olympics still might happen...well, I'm just not seeing it. I think that ship has already sailed. I mean, even if Japan escapes the worst, you're talking about bringing in athletes from all over the world, including many countries that are imposing strict quarantines and travel bans.

As for "putting economics above people", I've expressed this sentence elsewhere in the thread, but are these necessarily mutually exclusive? I'm not talking about the Dow or the Nikkei index, but Japan has a huge service industry, and shuttering all restaurants and izakaya in Tokyo for an indefinite period of time could potentially put countless people out of work and/or out of business. If the Japanese government has decided that the sacrifice isn't worth it given the current situation, I can't necessarily say that's clearly the wrong decision. (Mind you, I'm not about to say for certain that it's the right one, either.)

The Olympics - I get that impression too, though try saying that to the media! It both amuses and worries me that the Yomiuri Shimbun are still insisting on showing the number of days left until the start of the Olympics on the front page each morning. How long will this charade go on for?!

Agree entirely that economics and people are not mutually exclusive, and a balance has to be made that tries to minimise economic loss while protecting people. My point was that given the culture of the country and the mindset of the people in charge, who grew up with the expectation that they would sacrifice their lives to Japan Inc. to make Japan a strong country, make Japan vulnerable to getting that balance disastrously wrong.

You are assuming that it is only the elderly and the infirm who are at risk. Data from the CDC shows that 55% of the hospitalizations in the US are from people aged 20 to 64. And if the elderly and infirm cannot get out and about, who shoulders the burden of shopping and doing errands for them, and what negative effects does that have on the economy? When the old folks homes shut down because the young people doing the administration, the staffing, the cooking and the cleaning, have to quit because they might be asymptomatic, what effect does that have on the economy?

And the people who often are at most risk - I've got a 5 year old niece with a severe genetic problem who the doctors predicted would live just a few months when she was born - are often the people who have least choice about modifying their behaviour and depend on their carers not getting sick. In this case, the onus is on the majority to modify their behaviour.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Data from the CDC shows that 55% of the hospitalizations in the US are from people aged 20 to 64.

A ridiculously wide age range. Over 50 certainly is not young.

You are assuming that it is only the elderly and the infirm who are at risk.

At risk of what? As I have said innumerable times, even influenza is a risk to anybody. No matter what you do there is going to be RISK! The trick is to balance the risk and not go so overboard avoiding one risk you condemn yourself to some other doom. I am not ignoring anything.

When the old folks homes shut down because the young people doing the administration, the staffing, the cooking and the cleaning, have to quit because they might be asymptomatic, what effect does that have on the economy?

I cannot even figure what the heck you are trying ask here. I also said that those people are practicing social distancing and of course they need to. But its just another minority.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I challenge you to head to Roppongi and hang out there and party for the weekend. (You probably don't live near there but that's no excuse, transportation in Japan is very good. Very easy to get to from most places.)

And I challenge you to stop acting like you know what is possible and what isn't in my life. You don't know my family life, my work schedule, my financial situation or even if I am sitting in a wheelchair. But you certainly did show your level with that challenge. I suppose I should thank you for that.

Further I never suggested to go party like its 1999. What I said was shutting everything down is a bad idea.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

By the way, when I saw this, you're the first person I thought of.

Nice meme. "Prestigious doctors" tend not to be experts in economics. And most could not grow you a decent crop of potatoes if the economy goes plop. (S)he might be able to tell you what vitamins you lack as you get sick though...(s)he might even be able to write you a prescription for you to take to a closed and bankrupt pharmacy for laughs. But neither doctors nor economists are leaders. We use leaders to mediate between the two and decide what to do, not delegate authority to one or the other in a crisis.

But here. I will quote a prestigious doctor for you. Don't listen to me. Listen to him.

"Certainly it is always a concern if people come together…We have to have risk management procedures associated with that," said WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus during a press briefing posted online.

"You cannot shut down the world either. Normal activity must go on," he added in response to questions about "super-spreaders" or individuals who are able to transmit disease at a much higher rate than the world average."

‘You cannot shut down the world,’ WHO says amid concerns on coronavirus ‘superspreader’

“You cannot shut down the world either. Normal activity must go on,” said a WHO official in response to questions about disease “super-spreaders.'

news.abs-cbn.com

 

[musicisgood]

How is Japan going about testing?
I just cycle where 3 sushi houses are and they are loaded.
Seems like most people are aware, but life is going on as usual. Maybe appearance only. I have some Mormon friends and today or tomorrow, a charter plane will take all missionaries out of Japan. I believe that there are about 700 missionaries and other staff. But I thought no one can fly out of Japan to the USA.
Anyway, I just can't believe the peace and quiet what is taking place here. Ex: In Yamaguchi Ken, only 3 "known" cases and this was 3 weeks ago. Sorry folks, Ube city has the airport that has daily flights to and from Tokyo. What's your thoughts.

 

[Lothor]

How is Japan going about testing?
I just cycle where 3 sushi houses are and they are loaded.
Seems like most people are aware, but life is going on as usual. Maybe appearance only. I have some Mormon friends and today or tomorrow, a charter plane will take all missionaries out of Japan. I believe that there are about 700 missionaries and other staff. But I thought no one can fly out of Japan to the USA.
Anyway, I just can't believe the peace and quiet what is taking place here. Ex: In Yamaguchi Ken, only 3 "known" cases and this was 3 weeks ago. Sorry folks, Ube city has the airport that has daily flights to and from Tokyo. What's your thoughts.

It feels unreal. I don't believe that Japan is immune to the exponential law of number of infections.

 

[Hiroyuki Nagashima]

My countermeasure against coronavirus is to raise immunity.
Eating and smiling are ways to boost immunity.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

You haven't actually disputed any of the articles about why Covid-19 is not like the flu.

You sure like to make a lot of unsubstantiated accusations. What articles that say its not like the flu are you accusing me of not disputing?

And just to be clear I am taking "not like the flu" to mean "not like the flu AT ALL" because what else could it mean? Its either somewhat like the flu or it isn't. And if you are now going to say its somewhat like the flu then clearly own your back pedal. I remain sure there are similarities as well as differences. And if you agree with that then what was your point?