COVID-19 Coronavirus: global situation

[Mark of Zorro]

That's not the same as having no effect.

And who said that?? I said:

the effectiveness is slim.

By the way I can cherry pick too:

"As of 2011, reviews concluded that when oseltamivir is used preventatively it decreases the risk of exposed people developing symptomatic disease.[27][38] A systematic review of systematic reviews found low to moderate evidence that it decreases the risk of getting symptomatic influenza by 1 to 12% (a relative decrease of 64 to 92%).[10] It recommended against its use in healthy, low-risk persons due to cost, the risk of resistance development, and side effects and concluded it might be useful for prevention in unvaccinated high risk persons.[10] "

What major good a vaccine is it if its recommended healthy people don't get it?

I am sure unvaccinated, high risk persons are happy for it, but is this seriously your only basis to declare Covid 19 is "certainly different" from influenza??

 

[mdchachi]

I'm not sure if this will be a controversial opinion, but I've honestly been a bit surprised and unnerved at how many countries and cities around the world have so quickly adopted this approach of basically shutting almost everything down and encouraging (or even legally requiring) people to quarantine/isolate themselves entirely.

I don't mean to downplay concerns about the Coronavirus or suggest that it's all just mass hysteria, but I can't help but feel like there should be more discussion and debate about the potential negative effects all these closings, cancellations, curfews and whatnot will have on the economy and people's livelihoods.

I mean, sure, it's no big deal for people who have stable jobs and incomes, those who can telecommute, etc. etc., but there are many people (especially in, but not limited to, the service industry, hospitality, etc.) who could potentially lose their jobs, businesses, livelihoods, etc. because of this, especially as it carries on for longer and longer. In the United States (my home country, though it hardly feels like home these days), losing your job can also mean losing healthcare, putting people at risk for other potential health issues, not just the virus. Some of these people might already be raising small children and struggling to make ends meet as is.

Of course, I don't have numbers (nobody does), but let's say the virus has the potential to kill as much as 3% of the U.S. population if left entirely unchecked. Now, let's say that an indefinite and almost universal shutdown of restaurants, entertainment facilities, fitness gyms, etc., etc. has the potential to plunge ten times that number into poverty or severe economic distress.

It's a hypothetical, of course, but is there not a point at which the latter figure gets large enough that it's at least worth having a debate as to whether the "prevent the spread of the virus by any and all means necessary" approach is truly for the best? (As opposed to, say, letting society function mostly as usual while encouraging all people to be careful and especially those who are most at risk for contracting life-threatening issues from the virus, i.e. the elderly and those with pre-existing illnesses, to take extra precautions.)

I don't want to make some sweeping statement that there's been an overreaction to this pandemic (I don't have the expertise to make that call), but I just can't help but feel that the potential negative repercussions of the extreme reaction currently being taken aren't being discussed nearly as much as they should be.

What you're really saying is the tradeoff between deaths and economic health worth it or not. In a serious pandemic though not taking these actions will result in even worst outcomes economically. Plus governments and society can mitigate the negative economic effects.
They can't do anything once people are dead. And as this article states, current scientific thought is that "social distancing" is the most effective path:

This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works

In 1918, the city of Philadelphia threw a parade that killed thousands of people. Ignoring warnings of influenza among soldiers preparing for World War I, the march to support the war effort drew 200,000 people who crammed together to watch the procession. Three days later, every bed in...

qz.com

I'm sure epidemiologists and others who have studied this kind of thing have some prescriptions about what should be done.
I'd rather follow their advice than these armchair epidemiologists who keep saying it's no worse than the flu.
That's pretty obviously not the case. I think after we build up herd immunity to it, that will be true.
For now the issue is the exponential growth of sick people and lack of capacity to deal with it.

 

[Mansoor]

You are free to disagree. But are you saying that influenza does not kill young people??



Again, are you saying influenza is different??



I think influenza is more dangerous than people have been thinking, but they were not panicking over it.

I have watched people succumb to hype and hysteria all my life and those two diseases never infected me. I feel like an alien but I sure am glad I am not weak to those two forces. They look like Hell.

No, I don't believe flu is a better disease, but we must pay attention to this fact that influenza is more treatable than Corona (as Chris pointed). The function of the two type viruses is different, although both are from one species. The inherent behavior of Corona virus can not be identified (relatively) by human's body defensive system and if the system is weak it can be defeated by the virus.

Nowadays medical aids can help the defensive system to resist better (among oxygenation) but the system cannot fight with the virus solely.

I thought about the particular function of this virus and reached this result:

Before Corona virus enters the bloodstream, a group of them first infect the lungs that is the source of oxygenation for body.
In fact, the body defensive system can confront the virus powerfully but the problem is that the lungs are infected and can't send enough oxygen to the blood and this insufficiency of oxygen weakens the system and cells. So, the weakness of the body defensive system is the same opportunity that virus is waiting for, and thus can defeat the system and take down the patient, finally.

That is why, the first and most important medical aids against corona is oxygenation. This first method of treatment compensates the insufficiency of oxygen in the blood somewhat (beside other medical aids) and depend on the fate of the patient (genetic structure and power), this helps his body to repel the virus.

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

(a relative decrease of 64 to 92%)

An absolute decrease of 1-12% is significant when the initial chance of contraction is already low. The relative decrease indicates the percentage of time the subject would have gotten ill, but didn't.

What major good a vaccine is it if its recommended healthy people don't get it?

It's not a vaccine, it's an anti-viral drug. You can selectively give it only to patients where the benefits outweigh the risks, for example elderly or infirm patients who would be at a high risk of dying if they contracted influenza. As an anti-viral, unlike immunization, it can also be used after infection.

The major benefit of anti-virals is to save lives that would otherwise be lost, not to cure otherwise healthy people who could just spend a couple days at home until their immune system takes care of the problem.

I am sure unvaccinated, high risk persons are happy for it, but is this seriously your only basis to declare Covid 19 is "certainly different" from influenza??

No, there are immunizations as well, and Tamiflu(oseltamivir) is only one of four CDC approved influenza anti-virals.

What You Should Know about Flu Antiviral Drugs

If you are sick with flu, antiviral drugs are a treatment option. Your doctor may prescribe antiviral drugs to treat your flu illness.

www.cdc.gov

The "flu shot" is still the first line defense against influenza, but there are alternatives for patients who are at serious risk.

And who said that?

It is swallowing the white corpuscles in the patients' blood, is breaking down the defensive system of their body and is deforming their lungs due to a hard infection, while there is neither an effective vaccine nor med against it.

Again, are you saying influenza is different??

You didn't make any assertions at all of any particular note, but you did challenge this statement in a way that suggests, without actually claiming it, that there is no effective medications or vaccines against influenza.

I am simply asserting that there are effective medications and vaccines for influenza, and there are not any currently approved medications or vaccines for Covid-19 (there are medications in trial, but they are not generally available and are not yet proven).

You are trying to move the goalpost to "very safe and highly effective", which is not the position I was taking.

 

[Mansoor]

I did mean, a known and specified medicine particular to Corona virus. The medical researches are trying to find out the vaccine and medicines but sadly in this situation the most important factor is time. Inevitably, they are using other existing drugs on the patients to attain a positive effect, beside the researches. So we can pose this expression that a particular medicine has not been discovered versus Corona up to this time.

Let me I relate two news:

The officials of China declared; for first time, from beginning the Corona disease in the Hobei Province of China, it is not observed any new suspected case of the disease in the area, during the past 24 hours.

The Chinese researchers also announced, the anti- influenza medicine, Avigan (produced in Japan) had been effective for treatment of the Corona patients and their shortness of breath, relatively.​

And a wonderful news


An Iranian 103 years old woman was cured after infected with Corona disease!!

She was discharged from hospital yesterday, returned to her house and is now healthy exactly! She lives with her 78 years old daughter.

She has written on the sign: " I defeated corona virus"


​

 

[Lothor]

Some really interesting posts. We're inadvertently getting a lot of data on which approach is better: Japan's relativly laissez-faire approach without much social distancing or the strict quarantining of some European countries. I wish the stakes weren't so high.

 

[bentenmusume]

I'm sure epidemiologists and others who have studied this kind of thing have some prescriptions about what should be done.
I'd rather follow their advice than these armchair epidemiologists who keep saying it's no worse than the flu.

I certainly wasn't trying to play "armchair epiedemiologist", and I apologize if my post came off that way. (I tried to qualify numerous times that I'm well aware I don't have the expertise to pass judgment on the situation as a whole, but I'm sorry if that was drowned out by the rest of my rant.)

That said, the mood here in Japan seems to be quite a bit less apocalyptic than in the United States and Europe. There are certainly events being postponed, the school closings, and various other precautions being taken, but there is no major shutdown of all restaurants/"non-essential" facilities, no mandated-by-law self-quarantining, isolation, or curfews for the general populace—and so forth and so on—and the country isn't seeing massive, scary death tolls as a result. Might things change? Perhaps.

Seeing the news coming out of places like Italy, especially, though, is definitely sobering. Speaking just for myself, I'm trying to be fairly circumspect, but given the nature of my daily life and work, I'm not inclined to shutter myself at home or practice extreme "social distancing" for an extended/indefinite period of time, until/unless it comes to the point where it appears imminently necessary or is specifically mandated or requested of me.

Some really interesting posts. We're inadvertently getting a lot of data on which approach is better: Japan's relativly laissez-faire approach without much social distancing or the strict quarantining of some European countries. I wish the stakes weren't so high.

I think this is a sentiment we can all agree with.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I suppose we will be able to debate the effectiveness of flu immunizations until the end of time, but the CDC says:

"How effective is the flu vaccine?

CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."

Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do the Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC

Influenza vaccine effectiveness questions and answers - CDC

www.cdc.gov

That comes out to a coin flip. I am undewhelmed.

The "flu shot" is still the first line defense against influenza, but there are alternatives for patients who are at serious risk.

I have to disagree. The first line defense against influenza is and always has been people's immune systems.

And generally speaking people were not panicking about the flu outside of a handful of times in modern history.

But you are not answering my question. Is this really the only difference you can find between Covid 19 and the flu, that there are underwhelming immunizations available?

I guess I should say this again because its happening just like I said: This virus cannot be stopped. We have a virus for which 80 percent of people who even get it will show no or very mild symptoms, and it cannot be stopped. Therefore, I see only detriment and danger in shutting down economies.

I will also say again that its mostly old people who are in danger. So the simple answer is for old people to isolate themselves as the virus runs its course, which it will, like it or not. Unplugging economies will have health effects. Them failing to restart when plugged back in will have even more. If the gas stops, the food stops. If the food stops, health will suffer. If the money stops, the utilities stop. If the utilities stop, health will suffer.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Before Corona virus enters the bloodstream, a group of them first infect the lungs that is the source of oxygenation for body.
In fact, the body defensive system can confront the virus powerfully but the problem is that the lungs are infected and can't send enough oxygen to the blood and this insufficiency of oxygen weakens the system and cells. So, the weakness of the body defensive system is the same opportunity that virus is waiting for, and thus can defeat the system and take down the patient, finally.

Okay. But is the flu different?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I cannot confirm this but it was mentioned on another site that doctors are looking into the possibility that ibuprofen use is a reason why so many died in Italy. Not saying its a fact, its just what I heard. I still don't have a clear reason for all the deaths in Italy except the "they hug and kiss a lot" theory from an article I posted earlier. It still just doesn't look right and same with South Korea. If the virus itself was so deadly we would see this repeated in many other places by now would we not?

 

[Mansoor]

Okay. But is the flu different?

I think the theory itself express the difference. My scientific and research sense says, influenza doesn't target lungs anymore but it target blood directly. The influenza virus's behavior is different with Corona in this aspect. The final aim of both viruses is blood and cells but the corona virus behaves more intelligently.

It first tries to weaken the immune system before confronting with the destroyer white corpuscles, and this happens through making lungs passive or weak. Its goal is that to prevent oxygenation for the white corpuscles that are the army of body to weaken and unable them.

So we can say, Corona virus is not more powerful than its brother influenza, but this intelligent strategy makes it able to overcome the defensive system of body easier and faster. In a Farsi article, I opined Corona is a type of influenza but with different reaction and operation.

As you know every year (or every few years) a new type of influenza appears in the world that is different with the older one, more or less, and the vaccine that has been made for the older sample is not effective against the new version anymore, because of a series biological reasons that goes back to the virus's strategy and the shield which it uses against body biological defendants, and also medicines.

However, I think Corona is a type of influenza virus that is changed into a new one with different genetic structure and attributes. This time, this new version of influenza first targets lungs to reduce the vital oxygenation and thus declines power and agility of the white corpuscles

 

[mdchachi]

I certainly wasn't trying to play "armchair epiedemiologist", and I apologize if my post came off that way. (I tried to qualify numerous times that I'm well aware I don't have the expertise to pass judgment on the situation as a whole, but I'm sorry if that was drowned out by the rest of my rant.)

Sorry I didn't mean to imply your were one of those. Your post was thoughtful and I did get your qualifications.

That said, the mood here in Japan seems to be quite a bit less apocalyptic than in the United States and Europe. There are certainly events being postponed, the school closings, and various other precautions being taken, but there is no major shutdown of all restaurants/"non-essential" facilities, no mandated-by-law self-quarantining, isolation, or curfews for the general populace—and so forth and so on—and the country isn't seeing massive, scary death tolls as a result. Might things change? Perhaps.

Yeah that's the thing that seems the most out of step with the rest of the world. Does Japan have their heads in the sand or are they somehow on a better trajectory than all these other places. Yes they've taken some severe steps like canceling school but many people are still mingling. My colleagues say they don't go out after work but they still go to work and they still go out for lunch. Very puzzling.

Seeing the news coming out of places like Italy, especially, though, is definitely sobering. Speaking just for myself, I'm trying to be fairly circumspect, but given the nature of my daily life and work, I'm not inclined to shutter myself at home or practice extreme "social distancing" for an extended/indefinite period of time, until/unless it comes to the point where it appears imminently necessary or is specifically mandated or requested of me.

Unfortunately the U.S. track seems more along the Italy track. The question is will all the various lockdowns have an effect in time to alter the curve.
Here's an interesting article with up to date charts.

U.S. state coronavirus curves show many could be close behind New York

New York now leads the nation in confirmed COVID-19 cases, but the latest data shows the coronavirus curve for several other states follows a similar pattern.

www.usatoday.com

Japan isn't even listed as it's not considered one of the countries with large outbreaks.

I cannot confirm this but it was mentioned on another site that doctors are looking into the possibility that ibuprofen use is a reason why so many died in Italy. Not saying its a fact, its just what I heard.

Concerned About Taking Ibuprofen For Coronavirus Symptoms? Here's What Experts Say

The World Health Organization and other experts say there's no real evidence that patients taking the drug to ease symptoms have negative effects. But for fever, Tylenol is often recommended first.

www.npr.org

 

[Mark of Zorro]

No nonsense in this link.

"Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 9,115 deaths reported worldwide; 150 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 19, 2020.*


Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year."

COVID-19

COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that emerged in December 2019. Learn about symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and prevention.

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Information from Italy but may well pertain to everywhere:

"More than 99% of Italy's coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country's national health authority. "

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Mark of Zorro]

The article below the one above seems a little contradictory in some respects. It talks about the number of severe case of younger people. However it does not talk about if most have other medical conditions, but focuses on a few who don't.

Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19

The risk is particularly dire for those with ailments that haven’t yet been diagnosed

www.bloomberg.com

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

However, I think Corona is a type of influenza virus that is changed into a new one with different genetic structure and attributes.

This is not correct. Influenza is a family of viruses. Coronavirus is a different family of viruses.

Think of how many kinds of dogs and cats there are. Different breeds of dogs can be big, or small, short haired, long haired. In just a few generations they can become a very different appearance. But a dog will never give birth to a litter of cats.

In the same way, influenza viruses have mutated into things like "bird flu" and "swine flu" (H1N1), but they are still influenza viruses.

Coronavirus is normally a common cold causing virus, but sometimes it is more serious. Coronaviruses have mutated into things like SARS, MERS, and Covid-19, but they are all coronaviruses.

An influenza virus cannot mutate into a coranavirus, and a coronavirus cannot mutate into an influenza virus. They are different families.

Orthomyxoviridae - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Coronavirus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Evolution of viruses (article) | Viruses | Khan Academy

Virus evolution and genetic variation. Drug-resistant HIV. Reassortment of flu viruses.

www.khanacademy.org

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I will tell you one thing about the news and corona virus. The news media keeps saying "because of the corona virus" when they should be saying "because of the reaction to the corona virus" or fear of it, or something. Corona virus is not destroying our collective economies for example. Government reaction is. Supplies of masks and toilet paper are not running low at stores because of corona. They are running low because of panic buying and hoarding.

 

[mdchachi]

Sobering video from Italy. Hard to tell what is an overreaction or not. Hindsight will tell us.

 

[Mansoor]

This is not correct. Influenza is a family of viruses. Coronavirus is a different family of viruses.

Think of how many kinds of dogs and cats there are. Different breeds of dogs can be big, or small, short haired, long haired. In just a few generations they can become a very different appearance. But a dog will never give birth to a litter of cats.

In the same way, influenza viruses have mutated into things like "bird flu" and "swine flu" (H1N1), but they are still influenza viruses.

Coronavirus is normally a common cold causing virus, but sometimes it is more serious. Coronaviruses have mutated into things like SARS, MERS, and Covid-19, but they are all coronaviruses.

An influenza virus cannot mutate into a coranavirus, and a coronavirus cannot mutate into an influenza virus. They are different families.

Orthomyxoviridae - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Coronavirus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Evolution of viruses (article) | Viruses | Khan Academy

Virus evolution and genetic variation. Drug-resistant HIV. Reassortment of flu viruses.

www.khanacademy.org

It was one of the probabilities that I paid attention to, while this virus still has remained unknown. Our knowledge about some biologic things among bacteria and viruses is not complete, among the source of their generation and mutations. We still have not found out what happens for these microscopic beings in the nature (out of laboratories). Despite their smallness,the genetic structure of them is very complex. It is not obvious how they mutate from one type to another, in the nature.

Some corona symptoms are similar to influenza. This brings up this assumption that it can be a branch of influenza.

Anyhow, my doctrine about the type of function of corona can be true ( that virus first hurts the patients' lung to create a helpful environment for its next effective activities in the blood, because of oxygen shortage- it seems an intelligent and meaningful action by the virus)

My second expression about this idea that corona can be a mutated generation of influenza is a probable theory, due to similarity of some corona symptoms with influenza.

 

[Mansoor]

China declared, no new case of corona patient was found in this country during two past days, and the recent maladies was relative to the persons who traveled to China and their sickness was detected in the quarantine stations.

Due to the crisis of corona in Italy, its officials called out the retired medical personnel to go back to their workplace. It is claimed, about two thousands of Italian doctors have been infected with corona virus.

The second aiding medical and hygiene cargo of Qatar (about 7 Ton) was sent to Iran. As well as, Turkmenistan sent an aiding medical cargo to Iran, recently.

The annual Can film festival was canceled in French until the end of corona infection danger.


The sport officials of Japan canceled Olympic games at its predetermined time with permission of FIFA and did postpone it for a safe time in the next ( this news didn't exist, I made it myself for caution! lol)

 

[mdchachi]

The sport officials of Japan canceled Olympic games at its predetermined time with permission of FIFA and did postpone it for a safe time in the next ( this news didn't exist, I made it myself for caution! lol)

Opening ceremony is supposed to be July 24 so I think it's too soon to make any decisions. We will have to see how the next few months go.

 

[Mansoor]

Opening ceremony is supposed to be July 24 so I think it's too soon to make any decisions. We will have to see how the next few months go.

Hi, mdchachi

Today I saw in IR television, the Olympic torch reached Japan and one of the Japanese sport responsible ignited the large torch of the main stadium (probably in Tokyo) by the mobile torch. This shows Japan is ready to be host of the international competitions and is going to hold the Olympic games in the near future.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Sobering video from Italy. Hard to tell what is an overreaction or not. Hindsight will tell us.

Its a fear mongering piece of sensationalist garbage is what it is. Few facts, certainly not the important ones, and lots of words like apocalypse, get ready, and war. He never once points out that the overwhelming majority dying are those who are old and with previous medical conditions for example.

 

[Majestic]

The fear is not (just) about individuals' risk of death. The fear is that so many people will be sick enough, that the health system collapses. And it also means so many people are knocked down by the virus, that the economy ceases to function. If sick beds are filled, even temporarily, with people who need ventilators, or who are immunocompromised, it means hospitals become paralyzed. If people fear they cannot get routine health care due to the system breaking down, they become fearful and society ceases to function. Looking only at the death rate is focusing on too small of a picture.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

The fear is not (just) about individuals' risk of death. The fear is that so many people will be sick enough, that the health system collapses. And it also means so many people are knocked down by the virus, that the economy ceases to function. If sick beds are filled, even temporarily, with people who need ventilators, or who are immunocompromised, it means hospitals become paralyzed. If people fear they cannot get routine health care due to the system breaking down, they become fearful and society ceases to function. Looking only at the death rate is focusing on too small of a picture.

I simply gave an example. I even clearly said "for example". Accusing me of "focusing on deaths", if you are, is wrong headed. There is also the fact that about 80 percent of infected people experience mild to no symptoms and I have said both things repeatedly. In fact, I am getting tired of having to repeat those straight facts every time some fear-mongering concept comes up.

While you bring up some good points, some portion of the remaining 20 percent of people knocked down by the virus is less likely to break the economy than the government forcing things to shut down....because the virus is knocking down more retired people than young, healthy ones who work. But your point about overwhelming the medical system is valid....and undertakers too.

But planes could damn well fly. Its the old and infirm that need to shut their lives down and isolate...not the rest of us.