Environment Climate change: Japanese mikan farmers switch to avocados

thomas

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Avocados from Ehime and Shizuoka, while mikan production will move increasingly to the northeast of Japan.

Ehime Prefecture, renowned for its top mikan (mandarin orange) production, is starting to feel the impact of a warming climate. By the end of this century, areas now ideal for mikan cultivation are expected to become better suited to avocados, according to a government research institute.

Avocados

In some mikan-growing regions, farmers—backed by local governments—have already begun trial avocado cultivation. In Matsuyama, the prefectural capital, authorities have been distributing avocado seedlings to farmers, encouraging them to shift from mikan and other crops. What began as a plan to utilise idle farmland has now become a symbol of how climate change is reshaping Japanese agriculture.

Shizuoka Prefecture, another major mikan producer, has set its sights even higher. The governor aims to make Shizuoka Japan's leading avocado-producing region within a decade. With a ¥18 million budget for this fiscal year, the prefectural government has begun large-scale efforts to develop the industry. Thanks to its proximity to major urban markets, locally grown avocados could reach consumers fully ripened.

Avocados can be cultivated outdoors and bear fruit within a few years—faster than mikan trees—but challenges remain. Officials stress the need to identify varieties hardy enough for Japan's winters and to establish reliable methods of cultivation and quality control. Yuji Hirano, head of the prefecture's Agricultural Strategy Division, noted that little was yet known about avocado cultivation. He explained that only about 10 to 20 farms in the prefecture were currently growing the fruit and added that the government planned to collaborate with research institutes over the next three years to deepen its understanding and develop effective growing methods.

Avocados, which are currently grown mostly only in limited areas of Japan, including the Nansei island chain in Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures, are expected to replace mikan as a new crop suitable for cultivation. The NARO officials predicted the areas suited to avocado culture will expand 2.5- to 3.7-fold from now by mid-century, and 2.4- to 7.7-fold from now by century-end, in the three scenarios considered. They said that, in the "very high" greenhouse gas emissions scenario, some 95,000 square kilometers will fall in a temperature zone suited to avocado culture by the end of the century, and that includes larger parts of the Kanto plains and of Izu and Boso peninsulas.

 
It'd be great if sharwils flourished here.

And from some brief past contact, avocados when grown/farmed are often grafted--you can usually take cuttings from one variety and effectively stick them onto another type of avo tree, where they'll grow.
 
In the UK, we're being coerced into avoid buying avocados because each avocado requires 40,000L of water to grow to maturity. I might've made up that volume of water, but I know it's a lot!
 
In the UK, we're being coerced into avoid buying avocados because each avocado requires 40,000L of water to grow to maturity. I might've made up that volume of water, but I know it's a lot!
My experience is on the kona side of the big isle (hawaii island). It still rains there, even tho that's the leeward/dry side. Avocado trees just grow where you plant them, without much tending, and certainly never any irrigation (whereas the coffee and sometime mac nuts in the same area might be on drip irrigation, mostly to set off the flowering/budding properly).

I think Shizuoka gets as much rain, and maybe more, than most of kona.
 
In the UK, we're being coerced into avoid buying avocados because each avocado requires 40,000L of water to grow to maturity. I might've made up that volume of water, but I know it's a lot!
Good idea. Eat beef instead.

There's little that competes with mashed, slightly salted avocado on toasted sourdough bread. I feel very middle class now 😐
Avocado toast. Yummmm.
 
Good idea. Eat beef instead.
I won't dignify that comment with any sort of comment or hint that I'm upset by it, that I feel sorry for the cows, who were once deeply respected in Japan, somewhat like dogs are now in the West, nor that I'm mildly amused that there's no safe dosage of modern red meat and that I enjoy seeing people eating burgers knowing they're significantly shortening their and their children's lives and thus freeing up more space and resources on this planet. I won't mention that fueling the demand for beef is seriously damaging our climate due to intensive farming methods and that today's children will likely burn on an inferno, storm-ridden, earth wishing their ancestors had eaten a little less or indeed no beef.

No, I'll say nothing at all and not rise to the bait. Did I type that out loud? 😳
Avocado toast. Yummmm.
Toast made of avocado and not wheat? 😳
 
Global warming in Japan, avocados in Shikoku and mikan and other citric fruits in Northern Japan:

Areas suitable for growing mandarins in Japan are expected to shift gradually northward as temperatures rise. At the same time, regions now considered too warm for citrus could become viable for avocados, according to Japan's National Agriculture and Food Research Organisation. The institute, which is affiliated with the agriculture ministry, projects that land suitable for avocado cultivation could expand more than 2.5 times by the middle of the century due to global warming. Some regions are already moving in that direction. In Shizuoka Prefecture, growers have been working to develop avocado production for some time. Avocados are sometimes marketed in Japan as "the butter of the forest," a phrase that still turns up in promotional material.

Fuminori Arita - avocado grower in Ehime

The government is also preparing support measures. A subsidy programme by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, due to begin in fiscal 2026, is intended to help local areas shift towards crops better suited to higher temperatures. Changes are already visible in some prefectures. Aomori Prefecture, long associated with apples, has been increasing peach production. Meanwhile, Oita Prefecture is looking to expand the cultivation of shinkansen muscat grapes.

 
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