Aging problem in Japan

[Emoni]

This board seems to have kind of died the past half year in many respects, as if people worry about posting, replying, or maybe just the tone of the board recently, so I'm hoping that maybe this video and topic might get a few people talking again.

This is not a link that I found, you can thank NiceGaijin for finding this. It starts out... kind of meaningless, but after 1/3rd of the way through it gets better and poses some good questions about the aging issue in Japan.

Current - Banking for Modern Life

I have my own thoughts, which I would mostly classify as opinions rather than arguments since I have not done any serious research into the topic, but I'm curious as to what others on this forum think of the issue. What do you feel is the main or main few issues resulting in the decline in population.

As for myself, I fee that a decline in population isn't the issue as Japan is honestly already too crowded. A growing population isn't what Japan needs, they need to find a way to deal with specifically how to deal with a declining population rather than try to increase it further.

In my opinion the main problems resulting in Japanese not having kids most likely has to do with the fact that they are in a country that simply doesn't give much time FOR kids. They are jammed into a work obsessed society with no real room for a family, and each child takes a great deal of time and money... of which most simply don't have the time to give, even the women now.

As for dealing with the aging population, I feel that robots being used for care is simply absurd. There was a story 15 years ago on orphanages in Romania that took care of babies, and they were just dying for no real apparent reason. They got almost no human contact and would just... die. Those who have been to rest homes have seen the lives that most elderly have, and will instantly see the value of simple human contact and family visits and friends. Nothing can replace living human contact, the same goes with pets or any living creature.

I believe that Japan is stuck in a period were they want to grow, but are so stuck in one rigid view of looking at things that they will not accept reconsideration of issues that have remained for a long time. Racism being a huge issue for one. There is a LARGE population outside of Japan that would be open for Japan to utilize for care and other services, but Japan is not quite willing to seriously consider "foreigners" having a bigger part in their false fantasy of Japan as a pure independent nation.

What do you feel are the main issues regarding the rapid aging of Japan and birthrate drop? What do you believe are realistic solutions to the problems that are brought up in this video?

 

[otoko]

Many countries have shrinking populations or will have. The reason given as to why this is a problem is that Japan will not be able to maintain current economic activity which in turn will maintain living standards.

It seems that people are waiting longer to have kids. Many of the new parents around me are in their late thirties and early forties. They are waiting longer because they are concentrating on their careers in order to be able to financially support a family.

Personally I don't think it makes as big a difference as they thought it would. Ten more years in the Japanese workforce isn't going to greatly increase your fortunes.

If Japan is not going to increase immigration they should resign themselves to a shrinking population and finding different industries to succeed in which do not need manpower but make use of technology.

Finland does well with a small popluation for example. The reason why they can compete internationally is because of education. Schooling is free through college. Fins speak English. Fins pay high taxes but Finland's government is the most transparent in the world. Sooo I don't think Japan can go this route. People won't accept high taxes for any reason, and they definetely won't accept them from the Japanese government which does not know the meaning of transparency. Too bad since Japan is more receptive to being a welfare state than America.

I have doubts that Japan can become players in different industries other than manufacturing i.e. cars, electronics. They don't do well in service industries internationally because of corporate culture and lack of English ability. But if they can't compete internationally they only have a shrinking domestic market.

I think Japan made a mistake by concentrating on public works after the bubble burst. Public does very little for the economy and does little for the Japanese people. It does alot for special interests.

If Japan wants their citizens to have more kids I think they should put pressure on businesses to hire mother's under flexible work schedules. Maybe give companies tax breaks for doing so. I think they will have to go to pay for performance. Japanese businesses say it hasn't worked but it is more effecient than age based pay. Anyway I don't think companies can justify age based pay because Japanese companies cannot guarantee you will have your job. International competition is too tough to guarantee employment. If you say that means more people will be out of jobs I don't think it is that simple. Actually they will self-correct and not hire so many for redundant positions and those in their positions are there because they are good at their jobs.

Enforce labor standard laws. Companies will then be forced to find efficient ways to do things and innovate. Instead of overworking their employees. And if they can't they will fail.

I think shikikin, reikin and koushin should be abolished when renting apartments. At most only a deposit that is guaranteed to return, which should be no more than two months rent. If they must change the law to be able to evict on non-payment then that might have to be done.

I think election laws should be changed so that it facilitates the entry of more of the population, so that people who actually understand the people's problems will be elected to office. Abolish the custom of parents giving their seats to their kids. That is undemocratic and just continues old policies and puts clueless kids into positions of power.

 

[caster51]

I thinkﾂ the age of parents and grandparents were so poor at that time more than us
ppl worked more hard until late.
and kids took care of parents old age..
I think democracy basicary destroyed that as evil practice..
anyway.
after WW2, a father looked for Job and mother have to buy food to far.
they did not care about their children.
a family have 5 children in average.
why dose a animal birth a baby inclueding human being?.
It is an instinct for survival of the living thing.
The declining birthrate is ,in a word, a problem of man (living thing) instinct.
Clearly if experimenting on the animal.
The activity of the reproductive system becomes active if the life is exposed
to the crisis and the birthrate goes up.
The risk to the life gives birth to a lot of lives for alive the remainder of
the seed.
The child was bornﾂ as necessary to be practiced birth control in the life risk of the food difficulty and the hard living in postwar days .
Japanﾂ became an environment that the instinct for survival of the seed does not work positively
It is not possible to return now immediately after the end of the war.
The nuclear danger of North Korea solves the problem of that.
I think the system that help the birth ratio up by governmant is not necessary.
The problem is a method of increasing the instinct to leave offspring..
I think that the population of Japan should decrease once.

believe that Japan is stuck in a period were they want to grow, but are so stuck in one rigid view of looking at things that they will not accept reconsideration of issues that have remained for a long time. Racism being a huge issue for one. There is a LARGE population outside of Japan that would be open for Japan to utilize for care and other services, but Japan is not quite willing to seriously consider "foreigners" having a bigger part in their false fantasy of Japan as a pure independent nation

i think it is not a problem at all.
There is a possibility of causing the death by shock, too, if transfusing with
different blood Suddenly....
If the population decreases, it is leaving in nature.
And, if the national power becomes weak, it is good in it.

 

[Wanderleifan1]

We are going to start seeing this pattern in the worlds developed countries ( with the exception of the U.S. because of our border) people are going to start having less children. In fact the in the U.S. the population would most likely be on a down turn but the influx of people from south of the border has changed that. I mean if you think about it the main reason people in third world countries have so many kids is to ensure one of them makes it to adulthood because the odds of survival are not that great whereas in modernized and developed countries do not have to worry about their kids dying from malaria/starvation ect. So they can have one kid that is odds say makes it to adulthood. This leads to a decline in younger folks while the generations that came before them get older. well thats just my 2cents worth anyways lol

 

[otoko]

Immigration is one part of why America's population does not suffer from a shrinking population. Even controlling for that it is shown that Americans in general still have more kids. Now the question is why?

 

[caster51]

Immigration is one part of why America's population does not suffer from a shrinking population. Even controlling for that it is shown that Americans in general still have more kids. Now the question is why?

The reason for the United States is that many immigrant is accepted every year..
it keep their population.

http://openers.jp/culture/kon_seikou/kon19.html

 

[Glenski]

caster,
There are plenty of democracies in this world that are not in the same situation as Japan, so don't blame democracy.

Animals and people don't think about the consequences of creating offspring, but only humans think about the consequences of NOT creating them. That is the main root of the individual's perception in Japan, I believe.

Can it be changed? Yes, perhaps. But a bigger question is, does Japan currently do anything to MAKE it change? Answer: not a heck of a lot.

 

[Matthew Ota]

I think the robots in Japan are being developed for the aged. They are not being developed to take care of babies.

Japan has to put more emphasis on the family so there are more children. Otherwise they will vanish.

 

[Emoni]

My point is you cannot have robots replace human beings in regards to care and life quality. They aren't at the level to even deal with the care aspect much now either.

I do agree about the family aspect needing to be rethought as a much higher priority... but of course families take time, and companies have little consideration to giving them time or a regular work schedule it seems, and there isn't much of a fight to get better work hours either. Some companies give you some extra "screw time" maybe, but that sure isn't helpful AFTER the baby is born.

Making baby 2-3 minutes.

CARING FOR BABY... a tad bit longer.

 

[Glenski]

I think the robots in Japan are being developed for the aged. They are not being developed to take care of babies.

Regardless, this is not the world of Star Trek, so trusting robots or the industry to make enough of them is just not a practical solution in the near future (read: next 50 years).

Japan has to put more emphasis on the family so there are more children. Otherwise they will vanish.

The family IS emphasized, or didn't you know that? Many people live at home until they get married. Freeters abound (and sponge off mommy and daddy). People suffer with the burden of taking care of their elderly at home because nursing homes are few and expensive.

Being able to support more children is one thing to consider. As it stands, working mothers are not appreciated. Essentially, once they get pregnant, women are considered disposable until the last kid graduates high school. Daycare facilities are scarce, too. So, daddy works himself to an early grave, and kids grow up not knowing him very well. Lifetime employment is fading away, too, so security at a job is no longer commonplace, and hence the freeters were born.

Kids live in their bedrooms on their cell phones or with video games. They lack a lot of "normal" social skills and even their own basic language skills. These are the next generation of leaders.

 

[Iron Chef]

I just saw a story on the news earlier today talking about the growing increase in "younger homeless"... One of the people interviewed (some sort of soup kitchen director) said he had seen a 50% increase in the number of homeless between the ages of 20-30 showing up for free meals since a year ago. Talk about being lazy lol... Sad state indeed when a growing segment of the younger generation aren't taking up the slack for the seniors.

 

[-Rudel-]

My post might seem a litttle off topic:

Me have chosen to have kids yet, because at the ripe ole ag of 26, I still feel there are many things I still want to do. Maybe I am being shelfish, I dunno. My wife feels the same way.

Im in the military, and I know if I have a kid, I will be ok finacially. BUT...I plan to get out after 9 years, and I know for a fact that I would not be finacially stable, because, I don't own a house, I don't pay utilities. And when I go to college, there would definately be no time to have any.

My point being is, that the generation is getting older and learning that it's not to late to go to college, and do things they want to do. This could be a factor of having more senior citizens than normal.

There are so many things distracting us now than from...let's say....the 1700-1800s.

 

[Dogen Z]

Ageing Sucks

I went to Harajuku and Shibuya for Christmas shopping today and I felt so old--I can tell you firsthand that ageing in Japan sucks big time. I guess ageing anywhere sucks. ☝
Anyway, I just wanted to point out that the decline in population will occur gradually and leave time for the nation to adjust to it. So you guys don't have to worry so much about it. Besides the population now is much much greater than it was before the war.

As for the economy, productivity per worker will rise as companies shed excess workers and use more automation. (I want to try out the supermarkets that have no salesclerks--the machine scans/weighs your purchases and asks for payment by card--cool huh)

Of course, there will be some dislocation but I think the Japanese are creative enough to come up with some solutions--anyway that's what I hope.

 

[Glenski]

Anyway, I just wanted to point out that the decline in population will occur gradually and leave time for the nation to adjust to it. So you guys don't have to worry so much about it.

And, just what do you base this dubious claim on?

Besides the population now is much much greater than it was before the war.

Irrelevant.

As for the economy, productivity per worker will rise as companies shed excess workers and use more automation.

Total hypothetical nonsense. Back this up with data that shows Japan (or any country) is even approaching the level of automation needed.

(I want to try out the supermarkets that have no salesclerks--the machine scans/weighs your purchases and asks for payment by card--cool huh)

I already have. Plenty of computer errors experienced. NOT cool.

Of course, there will be some dislocation but I think the Japanese are creative enough to come up with some solutions--anyway that's what I hope.

Japan = creative people? Don't make me laugh.

 

[Dogen Z]

Re support for my previous post. What you believe is none of my concern; but it's good to be wary about anything posted on Internet including especially any of your remarks.

Anyway the population problem has been deeply studied for a long time so you'll just have to watch and see. Actually, the population is already declining; have you noticed any difference? Reports on this issue are written in Japanese and you can find them yourself. But here's a hint: look at demographic projections.

 

[Emoni]

Re support for my previous post. What you believe is none of my concern; but it's good to be wary about anything posted on Internet including especially any of your remarks.
Anyway the population problem has been deeply studied for a long time so you'll just have to watch and see. Actually, the population is already declining; have you noticed any difference? Reports on this issue are written in Japanese and you can find them yourself. But here's a hint: look at demographic projections.

Glenski pointed out some major flaws in your argument, as most of what you were stating seemed to be entirely your opinion of "everything probably being just ok cause it is now and will continue to be ok."

I'm certain that he, and most people on this board are aware that the population is already declining. It officially began declining 2007 I believe. "Giving hints" rudely and asking if anyone immediately notices a difference in a small percentage of a population decline starting last year seems absolutely insane and not productive to any sort of conversation.

While very direct in his response, I think Glenski's responses were perfectly valid. Especally, about your clearly hypothetically leap of a claim that somehow automation would take over for works not around in the work place.

As for more the opinion factor, I don't like dealing with empty lifeless grocery stories that you check things out yourself either. Opens plenty to shop lifting as well.

Your argument in your first post seemed to be "Don't worry it will all be ok!" It may be, but that isn't really much an argument or an explanation of why. You made some pretty grand statements so I think you need to back them up a bit more rather than just responding with more of the same.

 

[Glenski]

Re support for my previous post. What you believe is none of my concern; but it's good to be wary about anything posted on Internet including especially any of your remarks.

Are you itching for some sort of online scrap or just naive?

Anyway the population problem has been deeply studied for a long time so you'll just have to watch and see.

Studied by whom? Japan is doing darned little to combat it.

Actually, the population is already declining; have you noticed any difference?

Sure. Schools are closing or merging, and as a result, the competition for many teaching jobs has increased. There are other things, but since you claim to live in Tokyo and seem to act so wisely about all this, how about you giving a few examples?

Reports on this issue are written in Japanese and you can find them yourself. But here's a hint: look at demographic projections.

Already have. What's your point?

By 2050 the population is expected to fall from 127 million to roughly 100 million. There will be only 1.5 working people to support every elderly person with taxes. Over one-third of the population will be 65 or older (some say 40%), yet the work force of 16-65 year olds will comprise less than half the population.

In 2006 the government reported the following claim to boost the birthrate:
"New measures the government adopted in June of this year call for increasing child care, encouraging gender equality, urging companies to allow more time for family responsibilities, making it easier for employees to take time off to care for children."

Only the first one has any practical measure to it, and I don't recall hearing of any specific measures for that one. The others are doomed because of cultural issues. Japan's main escape from this situation is to get an influx of foreign workers, but that is just not happening at the moment.

Then you get ridiculous statements like this one:
"Atsushi Seike, a labour economist at Keio University, argues that, since the great bulk of older workers are company employees, the solution lies in fixing the corporate employment and retirement systems to allow people more easily to work for longer."

And this one:
"The imbalance [of elderly vs. younger population] is threatening future economic growth and raising fears over whether the government will be able to fund pensions. But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said: "It's impossible for the pension system to collapse due to the declining birth rate because we will adjust the amount of money put into it."

Laughable.

In 2004 we could read this report:
"The cabinet on Friday adopted measures to provide increased child care support for working parents, drawn up last month by a government panel on gender equality. One of the measures calls on the government to increase the quota of children enrolled in licensed officially nurseries and child care centers by around 150,000 by fiscal 2004.

It is intended to enable working mothers to return to work after giving birth by offering sufficient day-care facilities for all children and to eliminate waiting lists, as pledged by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in his policy speech back in April.

To accommodate the increase, new nurseries will be set up. To curb costs and increase flexibility in services offered such as extended hours and holiday care, these nurseries, though publicly owned, will be run by private companies or not-for-profit organizations."

Then two years later, P.M. Shinzo Abe said exactly the same thing! So, it's not working, folks.

 

[Grandpa Frank]

Tone it down a bit !

Put the person on your ignore list if they drive you over the edge. This is the time in the world for peace & goodwill, cut a little slack for others.

Uncle Frank

 

[pipokun]

Japan is simply entering the society where no human civilization has encountered before.

Following is the history of Shaho, the medical insurance scheme for salaried workers.
In 1984,
the scheme covered from 100% to 90.
in 1997
90% to 80..
In 2003 (and Kaigo_Hoken, nursing-care insurance scheme, started from 2000 for workers older than 40 years old)
80% to 70...
Now slightly obese workers are labeled as "traitor".

American union members or the next president Obama may, at least, be lucky enough to have more 20 years to enjoy their newer benefit.

And a famous joke goes:

In a waiting room of a hospital, many elderly patients chat cheerfully.
A guy says, "I cannot see grandpa pipokun here today... I bet he must be sick!"

while we enjoy the longevity, the low infant death rate, and the most affordable medical care (except maybe in North Korea or Cuba).

Just laugh at the crazy people who do not afford to pay the insurance, but refuse to pay it, so the government will issue the special insurance card for children with the laughing parents...

 

[uchimizu]

While I believe Japan is quite a crowded country, the main issue with the low birth rate is, according to me, that the geopolitical weight of a country is proportional to its population. You can only buy so many jet fighters, aicraft careers... per million inhabitant. On a more peaceful note, big markets set the standard for many products.

Even if Japan maintains its living standard, a rich Japan with 50 million inhabitants would become politically and strategically irrelevant to Asia, especially as other countries develop.

Also, coming from Europe, I believe Japan could do more to help families, whether through benefits for women who get pregnant or support to child-rearing.

 

[Glenski]

Japan's constitution prohibits offensive military attacks, so why do they need jet fighters, aircraft carriers, etc.?

How can Japan be "rich" with only 50 million inhabitants, most of whom are over 65? Longevity can be a curse.

Yes, Japan should do more to help families. That is one of the main points of this thread. Did you read what I cited, though? It's not doing much. As for benefits for women who get pregnant, do you realize just how little there are, and what the abortion scheme is like here?

 

[FrustratedDave]

Regardless, this is not the world of Star Trek, so trusting robots or the industry to make enough of them is just not a practical solution in the near future (read: next 50 years).

So not true. There is already robots in the industry that attend to elderly and disabled peoples needs. (Robots in place where a human was once needed) It is much more prevalent than one might think.

I was not going to get into this discussion, but....

What some of you are failing to realize is that the a great percentage of the elderly have a lot assets including savings. I one way or another this will be used to to get them through the silver years of their life, which will creat/is creating a new market in the form of aged care. Also death tax here is huge so what is left will also be able to be used to support the ecconomy.

Of corse numbers don't lie and the amount of young people in relation to elderly is declining and the cost of living will go up.