Politics The Takaichi Sanae Thread - Japan's first female Prime Minister

thomas said:

The name of the new centrist party is Chūdō Kaikaku Rengō (中道改革連合, Centrist Reform Alliance):

A cut to the consumption tax is set to be a central policy of Chūdō Kaikaku Rengō, the new centrist party created through the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito. The party's launch was announced at the Diet on 16 January by Yoshihiko Noda, head of the former main opposition CDP, and Tetsuo Saito. The group will use "Centrist Reform Alliance" as its English name, with "Chudo" as its official abbreviation, and is expected to unveil its policy platform on 19 January.

Noda pointed to a lower consumption tax on selected items, including food, along with reductions in social insurance premiums, as key priorities. The party name was chosen to reflect a stance that avoids alignment with either the right or the left, emphasising solutions reached through careful debate, practical reform grounded in everyday concerns, and an open structure that welcomes broad participation.

New centrist opposition party pushes for cut in consumption tax | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

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Paywall alert:

Japan key opposition forces register new 'Centrist Reform Alliance' party

CDP, Komeito to unify candidates in snap election to counter ruling coalition

asia.nikkei.com

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First, it appears that questions about how long Takaichi's coattails would be for the LDP have been resolved in the LDP's favour. The overwhelming majority of Takaichi's supporters intend to vote for the LDP in proportional representation; there is little sign that they will support her by voting for the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) or Sanseitō. The poll found that among those who voted for Sanseitō in the 2025 upper house elections, only 45% intend to vote for the party, while 41% say they will vote for the LDP. Among the 57% of respondents who said that they support the government, 65% say that they will vote for the LDP, and another 7% say that they will vote for Ishin no Kai. Only 7% say they will vote for the DPFP and 6% for Sanseitō. The LDP's approval rating has risen, and her popularity is even prompting independents to support the LDP. Asahi found that 35% of independents will vote for the LDP, compared to only 19% who say they will support the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA).

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Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) supporters, Kōmeitō supporters, and independents into an effective bloc. The new party, in other words, appears to be less than the sum of its parts. To date, the poll found that among Kōmeitō supporters, 76% say they will support the CRA in PR voting, whereas only 55% say they will vote for CRA candidates in single-member constituencies. Hopes that the party would shift thousands of votes from LDP candidates to CDP candidates running under the CRA banner may have been unrealistic, and also indicate that Kōmeitō's ability to mobilise voters is nothing like what it once was. To the extent that policy appeals matter, the CRA has utterly failed to connect with voters.

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... suggesting that turnout will be higher, which, given the Takaichi government's overall popularity and her and the LDP's support among independents, could fuel a landslide victory. Those who say they will "definitely vote" totalled 72%, up from 66% in 2024, with increases across all age groups, including 18-29-year-olds, 51% of whom said they will definitely vote. This could translate into turnout between 56%-60% compared with 53.85% in 2024.

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Foreshocks | Japan Daily Briefing

Everything is breaking in Takaichi's favor

observingjapan.substack.com

thomas said:

Excellent commentary by Jake Adelstein, who argues that - despite Takaichi's towering approval ratings - these elections are not a popularity contest. We'll soon know more.

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Japan's Elections Sunday: 6-7? 30-70? Ms. Takaichi has a 70% approval rating, her party? 30%

The polls are predicting a huge victory for Japan's first female Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Her popularity is 70%; her party 30%. If the election is more than a popularity contest, she'll lose big

tokyopaladin.substack.com

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Lothor said:

The Guardian has an article today arguing that Takaichi's attempts to gain an overall majority could be hindered by the recent heavy snowfall, suggesting that greater difficulty in voting will work against the LDP and favour Sanseito (whose voters are, on average, younger).
I'm sceptical that the weather will have a major effect, but it's interesting reading. Snow and freezing cold may shape outcome of Japan's snap general election

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thomas said:

I couldn't convince my wife to cast her vote this time (she's a regular voter). I wish I could have gone instead of her.

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Lothor said:

The early results are looking pretty grim.

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thomas said:

As expected.

As of 8 PM:
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thomas said:

I couldn't convince my wife to cast her vote this time (she's a regular voter). I wish I could have gone instead of her.

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thomas said:

It's going to be a major landslide victory and a single-party majority for the LDP. Terrible news, however, the new government will have to deliver more than empty rhetoric and clenched fists. Japan has no more time to procrastinate.

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mdchachi said:

Japan doesn't allow any pre-voting or not in-person methods (ie mail) I guess? Is absentee voting allowed for when you'll be out of town?

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johnnyG said:

My wife voted several days or even a week ago. Happened to drive by one 市民センター Saturday (branch of city hall)--lots of cars/traffic (voters), compounded by the snow.

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• PM Takaichi led the LDP to a historic win in Japan's general election for the 465-seat House of Representatives. The party began the race without a majority but finished with 316 seats, surpassing the 310 needed for a supermajority and outperforming expectations. It is the largest majority in the party's roughly seventy-year history.
• The party won across the country, sweeping every region. Among its successful candidates were fifty-five politicians returning after earlier defeats and sixty-six first-time winners, many of whom are already being labelled the "Takaichi children." The victors also included 32 of the 38 LDP candidates who had previously been implicated in the party's slush-fund scandal.
• Even the LDP itself appeared surprised by the scale of the result, hinting that the outcome may have reflected more than Takaichi's personal popularity. The party performed so strongly in single-member districts that it ultimately lacked enough candidates to fill all of the proportional-representation seats it had secured, having assumed that some of those places would go to contenders defeated in their district races.
• The CRA — created from the CDP–Kōmeitō merger — completely collapsed, winning only 7 of 289 single-member districts and 49 seats, 123 fewer than before. Senior opposition figures lost nationwide; former strongholds fell; and in greater Tokyo, it took just one seat, while the LDP won the rest. It even trailed the smaller DPFP in district wins, prompting doubts about the party's survival, revealing weak youth support, and marking the exit of many DPJ-era opposition heavyweights.
• Sanseitō, the anti-globalist party, built on its gains in the 2025 upper house elections, increasing its seats from 2 to 15, but still fell short of its goals despite running 190 candidates. Takaichi's rise pulled conservative voters back to the LDP and matched Sanseitō's social-media appeal to younger voters. It remains a fixture with mixed support for the government — backing "Japan First" policies while attacking the LDP — and, though organisationally strong with the 2027 local elections a key test, is for now in relative eclipse.
• The left was totally eclipsed: the JCP lost its only single-member district, Okinawa -1, and its seats fell from eight to four, while Reiwa Shinsengumi — previously popular with younger voters — dropped from eight seats to just one. Takaichi's victory was not just a shift to the right, as many younger voters appeared more attracted to her energetic leadership than to ideology, but also a sign that the wider left now looks outdated and lacks clear answers to Japan's current challenges.

The age of Takaichi dawns

Understanding what happened on Sunday

observingjapan.substack.com

thomas said:

Marukawa made it. Now she can make sure that no more creepy foreigners will encroach on her "living space".

As always, the electorate's memory appeared surprisingly short. Corruption, graft, and collusion with semi-criminal religious organisations are meaningless in the glitter of "energetic leadership".

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