COVID-19 Coronavirus: global situation

Well geez. The above post has been up for three hours with a "Ha ha" in it. At least I used green font for my sarcasm. (assuming that was the problem, cause no one bothered to tell me the supposed problem).

And is it not disrespectful to accuse people of not taking the virus seriously? Just because some people are not as serious as YOURSELF perhaps does not mean they are not taking it seriously. For some people its pretty much 1) martial law or 2) you think its a joke.

Plus some people literally and seriously want to see the world implode. And gee, I wonder why anyone would cop that attitude? Big mystery there. Might have something to do with some people being treated unfairly and having BS accusations leveled at them repeatedly? Go figure.
 
I didn't used people in my comment as the whole. The majority of people across the world get this virus seriously and try to be away from the places that this virus has ambushed, among populous spots , clinics and hospitals.

No, I didn't mean people at all.

I pointed to a group of citizens in every country that don't care about this disease and imagine, every thing is okay and they have situated in an ordinary time for walking, tripping, marketing, gathering, meeting and so on. These manner of thinking and living is unlike the reality which the medical societies are engaging with and have recognized its danger. This minority group of citizens encounter the issue boldly. Yes this state can be considered as braveness ( or maybe craziness) but with a great risk.

Nonetheless, I mixed the terrible picture with a little joke (Ha Ha...) to reduce the stress of readers and also the sensitivity of the moderators with their sharp sights!

I myself made the picture ( so it is including copyright and publishing it in other places needs a permission that is not free) and my purpose was that either make the readers a laugh and also scare them in case of a fun.

Anyhow, my purpose was not people but was a group of careless persons who create risk for themselves and others because of taking not the medical warns and recommendation seriously :)
 
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I would like to repost a FB message of my cycle buddy Joe Wein who explained why Germany has a relatively low mortality rate compared to other European nations, in particular Italy:

Some data on COVID mortality in Germany: There have been many comments on the relatively low mortality in Germany relative to the number of cases. The median age of infected persons in Germany is 47 compared to 64 years in Italy. Many Germans were infected while skiing in Austria or northern Italy (the same is true for Norway and Iceland, which also imported the problem this way) and these younger, healthier patients have a lower risk of severe outcomes.

Germany has relied heavily on PCR testing from an early stage. Because of this, the total number of confirmed cases includes many light cases that might otherwise have remained undetected. Last week about 350,000 PCR tests were performed in Germany, an average of 50,000 a day. This compares to 28,000 people in total who have been tested in Japan so far. Japan's population is about 50% larger than Germany's.

The youngest person in Germany to die from COVID-19 so far was 28 years old and had a pre-existing condition. There is a distinct gender bias in mortality. 84% of the 31 persons under 60 to die were male (26m, 5f). 73% of the 44 persons between 60-69 were male (32m, 12f). In the 70-79 bracket, 78% of the 130 who died were male (102m, 28f). For 80-89, the largest age group with 305 deaths, the ratio is 61% male (185m, 120f) even though far fewer men reach this age than women. Even in the 90 and above bracket (71 deaths), male deaths still outnumber female deaths (38m, 33f).

On March 30, the number of new infections in Germany dropped close to the number of fresh recoveries (4,450 vs. 4,289), which recently increased. Combined with 104 deaths this meant that the number of active cases (total confirmed infections - deaths - recoveries) only climbed by 57 or 0.1%. This is the lowest rate of increase since the start of the epidemic, which if it continues gives reason to be hopeful.

So daily tests run in Germany:
50,000

Overall tally of tests in Japan so far:
28,000
 
Nonetheless, I mixed the terrible picture with a little joke (Ha Ha...) to reduce the stress of readers and also the sensitivity of the moderators with their sharp sights!

Your cartoon joke is not the problem. The double standard being displayed is.
 
An American Imperial Navy aircraft carrier has been evacuated and put out of service over Covid-19. Its the AIN Theodore Roosevelt.

Here is to hoping it winds up getting sunk, which I will remind everyone can happen with no loss of life, good or evil, so don't go getting all indignant or accusatory please. The world could use less war toys in the hands of aggressor nations.

Just having the thing parked is I suppose a positive for once from Covid-19.

 
Your cartoon joke is not the problem. The double standard being displayed is.

My post was similar to the cough syrup that is bitter inherently, but the medicine makers sweet it with sugar to be tolerable for sicks. In the syrup has been used two different standards. Medicines that usually are bitter but healing, and sugar that is sweet and usually eating that is not recommended patients by doctors.

If I didn't add the joke to the picture it would become unpleasant for readers and if I didn't use the horrible picture it would lose its warning aspect.

probably, it is interesting for you to know, I'm a fiction writer, though I have never published any of my writing anywhere yet, neither in the Persian publications nor English (for writing story in English I actually need your high ability in English or a native English editor to prepare my writing for publishing).

I mostly am interested to write story in English because it is a new language for me that activates my mind to write interestingly. Also, the English stories have more readers in the world, because this language has been spread out in the world as an international or shared language at least. I can write the best thriller or fantasy stories but I don't do that because there is not any motivation for me in this dimension of writing. I need fuel for writing such the stories and the fuel is money LOL

However, I think making the picture came from the upstream of my fiction writing LOL
 
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Google has released COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports based on Android location data dumps that show where people obey stay-at-home orders and where not. The dumps show mobility changes in retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces and residential areas (based on Android location data). For Japan, it has been broken down into prefectures as well.


The hanami peak in mobility is quite evident, but so is the drop in activity in central Japan starting last weekend.
 
Google has released COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports based on Android location data dumps that show where people obey stay-at-home orders and where not. The dumps show mobility changes in retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces and residential areas (based on Android location data). For Japan, it has been broken down into prefectures as well.


The hanami peak in mobility is quite evident, but so is the drop in activity in central Japan starting last weekend.

How do you find all this good information ?
 
Ecuador getting hit hard. If we thought Italy was the worst of it, think again. I'm afraid many countries will experience things like this.
 
I wanted to revisit this since there were future projections in it. Osaka and Hyogo, which were projected to have 586 cases by the 27th, are still relatively low with only 299 (as of 28th March). So Osaka and Hyogo look like they are dodging the bullet so far. In the meantime, Tokyo shot past Hokkaido as the municipality with the most cases, and is (coincidentally) also at 299 cases.
Starting to get a bit depressing. Tokyo had 118 new cases today, bringing Tokyo to 891 cases. The 299 cases of March 28th looks unbelievable now. The time next week, the 891 cases will look unbelievable. Osaka and Hyogo now have a combined 529 cases.
Even if a lockdown were ordered tonight, it would take two weeks to notice any effect. In the meantime, the cases of infected people would double, then double again. So maybe 3600 cases for Tokyo in two weeks - that is, if we get a lockdown tonight.
As of yesterday, Tokyo had 635 of 750 hospital beds (for infectious patients) filled.
Please be careful, everyone.
 
Starting to get a bit depressing. Tokyo had 118 new cases today, bringing Tokyo to 891 cases. The 299 cases of March 28th looks unbelievable now. The time next week, the 891 cases will look unbelievable. Osaka and Hyogo now have a combined 529 cases.
Even if a lockdown were ordered tonight, it would take two weeks to notice any effect. In the meantime, the cases of infected people would double, then double again. So maybe 3600 cases for Tokyo in two weeks - that is, if we get a lockdown tonight.
As of yesterday, Tokyo had 635 of 750 hospital beds (for infectious patients) filled.
Please be careful, everyone.
I think it will be worse than that. 10% growth a day is doubling in a week and the numbers are going up more than 10% a day. Since Japan has been doing relatively little testing or social isolation, there are going to be an awful lot of sick people very soon. Hopefully because of the relatively good self-discipline of Japanese people, in 2-3 weeks the rate of new infections will rapidly drop and in a couple of months we'll be where South Korea and China are now - a semi-normal but wary life with no lockdown but lots of restrictions on gatherings.
 
Starting to get a bit depressing. Tokyo had 118 new cases today, bringing Tokyo to 891 cases. The 299 cases of March 28th looks unbelievable now. The time next week, the 891 cases will look unbelievable. Osaka and Hyogo now have a combined 529 cases.
Even if a lockdown were ordered tonight, it would take two weeks to notice any effect. In the meantime, the cases of infected people would double, then double again. So maybe 3600 cases for Tokyo in two weeks - that is, if we get a lockdown tonight.
As of yesterday, Tokyo had 635 of 750 hospital beds (for infectious patients) filled.
Please be careful, everyone.


I have been saying up to 4000 cases or more for Tokyo very soon. I just don't think the figures are really being truthful at the moment.
 
I have been saying up to 4000 cases or more for Tokyo very soon. I just don't think the figures are really being truthful at the moment.


Yes. And I have been saying the virus spread won't be stopped and will slow down only for spring really. But on the surface, I care about the spread/cases of this about the same as I do any other cold or flu. To me its only the deaths that count. So if Tokyo has 4000 cases but only a handful of deaths, its like everything else.

Of course the experience of other countries would indicate its going to be more than a handful. However, it seems spring is finally here so....
 
Ecuador getting hit hard. If we thought Italy was the worst of it, think again. I'm afraid many countries will experience things like this.

This article is full of numbers that have no reference point and are effectively useless...

However, over 300 deaths per day in a population of 2.99 million creates a reference point. If we conservatively assume a 50 years life expectancy (not a first-world country) then we would expect:

2.99 Million persons / ( 50 * 365.25 days) = 163.72 persons/day would die for such a life expectancy.

That means even if life expectancy is very low, deaths are still close to double what is expected. If life expectancy is very high, then deaths may be double to triple what is expected.

I could look up life expectancy and population counts, do some basic math, and get more information that actually has a useful frame of reference, but I'm not really feeling it. I think the one calculation is enough to get an idea of the severity.

I do think that bodies in the streets with the apparent rate of death is an indication of terrible government more than it is of a terrible death toll though. Given that unnatural deaths are not evenly distributed, being unable to handle double the average death rate would suggest there are bodies in the streets after every serious building failure or weather event.
 
Don't worry, it will be eliminated soon. The viruses are sensitive to seasons. They have a period of lifetime that will be finished after passing a season. It still is a mystery that why differences of seasons affect the viruses. I don't talk about the difference of temperature of weather. There are some other unknown mysterious things in the state of the seasons that activate a virus or put an end on its lifetime. such the mysteries are not known for man yet.

But this one was more severe and deathly than others, at least because of its spreading and epidemic rate and also progression in the body of the infected patients.

I have only one advise. We must go back to God. This virus by all its smallness, as a representation of the nature showed the shortage of technology of man and the complex systems that he had established in the world. This apparently trivial being collapsed all the systems, standards, facilities and readiness of nowadays man and made medical organizations and network unable. It damaged the pillars of the world economy and also the hope and long desires of man that thought he is now enough powerful, able and invincible to overcome every problem in the world. We escaped from a small thing that even was not seen by our eyes, and crawled into our houses and jailed ourselves for weeks because of its fear!

The nature has many things worse than this killer particle floating in the air, in its hand. I read a quote that God says, (some) people blame the universe, while I'm the universe ( this quote has a fine interpretation. It doesn't mean the universe itself is God, but it does mean God is beyond the factors, things and events of the universe.)

In another quote he says, nothing happens in anything except I'm its doer.

God is needless of man and his praise, even is needless of the praise of the angels, because he himself praise himself because of his endless greatness, power, needlessness, creativity, magnificence and so on.

Corona virus illustrated us that we are not as powerful as we suppose and showed how a minor being can create a great storm in the world that destroys every basis and developed system and makes mankind unable.

This event gestured to this fact that pride of man about his nowadays abilities and achieving this stage of the technology development is not enough for him and his safety against the unexpected phenomena of the world.

Of course this one was not the worst.
 
Don't worry, it will be eliminated soon. The viruses are sensitive to seasons. They have a period of lifetime that will be finished after passing a season. It still is a mystery that why differences of seasons affect the viruses. I don't talk about the difference of temperature of weather. There are some other unknown mysterious things in the state of the seasons that activate a virus or put an end on its lifetime.

We do know why viruses are sensitive to seasons and it has everything to do with the weather: some of it the direct effects of weather on viruses, and some of it the effects of weather on human bodies and behavior.

The fact that the virus spread in the southern hemisphere during their summer suggests that the virus will continue to circulate indefinitely. This is unsurprising to me: colds, including coronavirus caused colds, are more common in the winter but do not disappear entirely in the summer. It does, however, mean that summer's arrival isn't likely to significantly change anything.

There will be results from anti-viral drug trials soon. Vaccine trials will take longer, unfortunately, and vaccines also take time to produce at scale, but there will be results before the year is over. It's extremely likely that we will have one or more effective responses before the year is over, and even if we don't, eventually enough of the population will become immune that the virus will be unable to spread rapidly.
 
We do know why viruses are sensitive to seasons and it has everything to do with the weather:

Well, actually, I think scientists know the weather and seasons have an effect, but are still debating the exact reasons. Tropical places can have flu and cold epidemics any time of the year, but north and south of the tropics (roughly) fall and winter are peak cold and flu times.

I was just thinking that perhaps the viruses just cannot evolve/adapt fast enough to the changes in places with clear four seasons.



"Cold and flu viruses are generally seen as winter diseases, when infections spike.

But medical experts do not really know why, said Allen Cheng, professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at Monash University in Melbourne.

"It's probably to do with interaction between humidity and temperature," he said.

"People tend to spend more time indoors; kids at school tend to be closer together."

He said those were factors crucial to the transmission of flu, but that it was "a combination of a lot of things that we don't understand very well"."

 
So I have heard of several big cities with more deaths than its funeral/morgue system can handle.

But has this happened in any small cities or towns or a comparable number?

If the answer is no.....well that should raise an eyebrow.

But we may never know clearly if the claims of the article below are true throughout the world; apparently a lot of people who died in elderly care homes in towns in Italy were not even checked for corona.

Still. I would think an overwhelmed funeral/morgue system would still be noticeable.

 
Well, actually, I think scientists know the weather and seasons have an effect, but are still debating the exact reasons.

They haven't determined and will probably never determine the exact weighting of factors, which in scientific parlance means they don't yet know the exact cause.

In practical terms, however, we know many individual correlated factors:
cold weather prompts runny noses + virus is transmitted in mucus
ultraviolet light is greater in summer sunshine + direct exposure to ultraviolet kills virus
surfaces dry faster when warm + viruses die faster when dried out
people prefer indoor activity in cold weather + close proximity to sick people allows easier spread

When scientists "don't know why" it means if they make a long list of causes like this, they can't put a percentage-contribution next to each cause.
However, we do know of many of the contributing factors that can be independently studied, and we know what the sum total is because we can track overall cold and flu rates (although flu is studied much more closely).

This 'mini-review' covers much of the state of what we do know about influenza, with supporting links. It shows that we actually know quite a lot, but of course we don't know everything.


So, when asking if we do or don't know why, it's important to consider: to what level of detail and what level of proof? Certainly we don't know everything, but when we have a dozen studies showing that various crowding situations increase virus spread, do we really need studies that specifically measure winter-month nightclub virus spread, winter-month shopping mall virus spread? ... To say we "know" for certain, in the scientific sense, and to measure causes against other causes for proportion of impact... well... yes, we do.

But it would be unreasonable to suggest there is any significant doubt that crowding generally causes an increase in virus spread for cold and flu viruses, or other viruses that spread by similar means. For all practical purposes for making decisions about our own health and public policy, we do know that such viruses are going to spread more readily with more crowding even if we don't have a study on a specific strain in a specific type of crowding, and even if we can't accurately weigh how much chill-induced runny noses on the first 0C day of winter compare to the crowding of Black Friday sales.
 
Sites that you might want to read.

Military Times - Independent News About Your Military | Military Times

NTD News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

Stripes

The Japan Times

Top Stories | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Italian news in English - Italia Mia

Covid-19 had us all fooled, but now we might have finally found its s…

What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks? - Smart Air Filters

Epidemic Calculator

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_JP_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | IDPH

Experience

Home of JAMA and the Specialty Journals of the American Medical Association

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

Thread by @NAChristakis: Let's talk about what happens if you get COVID19 and recover. Are you immune to the disease? How long does the immunity last? And what does…

Study Finds Unexpected Coronavirus Symptoms That Could Be the First Sign of Infection: Digestive Issues

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

https://krdo.com/health/2020/03/27/a-state-by-state-breakdown-of-us-coronavirus-cases/

Coronavirus: Angela Merkel warns up to 70% of Germany could become infected

Coronavirus Timeline

Coronavirus: How to protect yourself if you have underlying conditions

Epoch Times, China - news, business, politics, human rights

https://twitter.com/BNODesk

The Last Refuge - Rag Tag Bunch of Conservative Misfits - Contact Info: [email protected]

CDC Works 24/7

ArcGIS Dashboards Classic



Health Alert – U.S. Embassy Tokyo (April 6, 2020)

Location: Japan
Date: April 6, 2020

Certain areas of Japan continue to experience significant increases in COVID-19 cases. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced April 6 that he intends to declare on April 7 a state of emergency regarding the coronavirus pandemic for seven areas of Japan – Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka – for a period of around one month. After the emergency declaration is issued, prefectural governors in the areas designated will have the authority to take emergency measures. Please refer to Japanese government announcements for up-to-date information on protective measures being taken in the area where you reside. U.S. citizens should be aware that U.S. Forces Japan has declared a public health emergency for bases and facilities in the Kanto Plain. Read more here. Residents of Tokyo should check the Tokyo Metropolitan Government website for updates and information in English on COVID-19. The U.S. Embassy Chargé d'Affaires issued a video message April 2 to U.S. citizens in Japan in light of the global spread of COVID-19.

Japan Immigration Notice: 90-day Visa Status Extensions

Japan's immigration authorities announced April 3, 2020 the extension of visitor visas for foreign nationals in Japan for an additional 90 days beyond the initial expiration date. This 90-status extension includes U.S. citizens admitted to Japan for 90 days as temporary visitors (visa waiver). U.S. citizens who want to extend their status in Japan, beyond the initial expiration, may visit an immigration office after their original status expires, but before 90 days after that initial expiration date. Immigration authorities further advise against visiting their offices in person at this time if possible due to crowding. If you are concerned about extending your visa status in Japan, please refer to Japan's Immigration Services Agency website for guidance.

The Immigration Service Agency is posting updates on new policies in response to COVID-19 on this webpage. Please direct Japan immigration and extension-of-stay in Japan-related questions to Japan's Immigration Information Center at 0570-013-904 (from overseas +81-3-5796-7112), the nearest immigration office or email: [email protected]. Contact information for immigration offices throughout Japan is available here. Policies are changing quickly and Japan's Immigration Services Agency is the authority on such matters.

Border Control Measures

Japan has barred admission to travelers who have recently visited any country that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has designated "Level 3" for infectious disease concerns, which includes the United States. Travelers from the United States are not permitted to enter Japan and should not board Japan-bound flights. For details and exemptions, please refer to:

Decrease in International Flights

Only about 10 percent of the pre-COVID-19 commercial flight capacity between Japan and the United States remains in operation. While we cannot predict what will happen next, it is reasonable to expect further reductions in commercial air service in the near- and medium-term. Travelers currently in Japan seeking return flights to the United States, or any U.S. citizens who are considering flying to the United States, are urged to consult with their air carriers on arrangements to depart immediately while commercial flights are still available. U.S. citizens should bear in mind that a decrease in flights to the United States may make it more difficult or even impossible to return to the United States for a family emergency in a timely manner. U.S. citizens who are not planning to return to the United States should be prepared to remain indefinitely in Japan. More generally, U.S. citizens who reside abroad should avoid all international travel.

At this time, Japanese authorities advise that passengers transiting Tokyo's Narita or Haneda airports without clearing immigration will still be allowed to proceed to their onward destinations in other countries. Passengers will not be permitted to transit between airports or transfer from an international flight to a domestic flight.

The Japan National Tourism Organization maintains up-to-date information on screening and quarantine measures for travelers. It also operates a 24/7 visitor hotline, available in English. To call from Japan: 050-3816-2787; from overseas: +81-50-3816-2787.

The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare also has a 24/7 hotline at +81-3-3595-2176 with English-speaking operators, and has a Q&A on the new measures.

All U.S. Mission Japan facilities remain open and staffed and U.S. Mission Japan personnel are following United States and Japanese government recommendations regarding social distancing and minimizing non-essential travel.

Global Level 4 Health Advisory – Do Not Travel: The Department of State has issued a Global Level 4 Health Advisory for COVID-19.

CDC Travel Notice for Japan: On March 21, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a Level 3 Warning (Avoid Nonessential Travel) for COVID-19 in Japan.

Actions to Take:

 
There are many complex mysteries and secrets in the body, biology, genes, ability, behaviors, strategy (for living, and surviving) and even intelligence of the beasts in the nature. Each one of the beings has a series sense and ability to adapt themselves with graduate or sudden changes in the environment that threat them and their generation, among bacteria and viruses. With these changes, the nature has given them this ability to create some necessary change in themselves to be adapted with the negative factors relative to the outside changes.

For example, when we use a type of antibiotic against a bacteria, in the first, second, third,... usage the drug can destroy the bacteria completely, but gradually the bacteria recognizes the components of the drug and thus they create some changes in themselves to counteract the effect of the antibiotic. This problem exists in the medical field and the scientists have to recreate a new type of the antibiotic which the bacteria can not change its biocodes against the drug, in a short time.

As you know, viruses are different with bacteria and usually antibiotics are ineffective on them, especially in the initial of the time they find their ways to the body of animals or human and attack body's microorganisms and cells.

But as far as I know whether bacteria or viruses both are capable to be changed into a more resistant one or even a new one. Probably, some type of viruses can be coupled with other types (in the nature or body of animals that are capable to be host of every type of bacteria and viruses that some insects and the animals like ... , ... , commodore dragons are included the worst. I heard, some unknown dangerous viruses and bacteria live in the saliva of commodore dragons.

I recommend people to use lamb, beef, fish ( scaled ones), chicken, turkey, ostrich, camel, duck, goose (the birds that eat seed and plants) and so on, and avoid the animals and birds that eat meat and unclean things. This keep them away from sickness notably.

I wish Corona virus has nothing to do with you :)
 
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I do think that bodies in the streets with the apparent rate of death is an indication of terrible government more than it is of a terrible death toll though. Given that unnatural deaths are not evenly distributed, being unable to handle double the average death rate would suggest there are bodies in the streets after every serious building failure or weather event.

That's my point. As this pandemic hits the less developed world the effects will be that much worse.
I'm not sure at what point your definition of "terrible death toll" is triggered. 100? 1000? 10000?
If it's to the point where they have to put bodies in the streets, it's clear that it's very bad.

One regional politician, Carlos Luis Morales, told CNN en Español that officials had been instructed not to divulge statistics about the death toll in Guayas. But he added: "Just to give you an idea, 480 death certificates have been issued since yesterday; 150 bodies are being collected each day."
 
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