Could we see a 100 yen = $1???

[JerseyBoy]

Nobody realises that Japan is one of the least export-oriented countries.

Yes, exports are very important for Japan's economy. If in doubt, just imagine the impact on Japan without its export businesses. Its wealth has been based on its export business.

Two thirds of Japanese economy is in the service industry, which is basically domestic business as Japan is not really strong in the service industries internationally.

 

[ArmandV]

It would be nice to see 100 yen/dollar again. The current exchange rate (roughly 92 yen per dollar) is only for the "high-rollers," your rate would be somewhere in the 80s.

 

[Astroboy]

Two thirds of Japanese economy is in the service industry, which is basically domestic business as Japan is not really strong in the service industries internationally.

Maybe so. But which country has "competitive service industry" ?

USA ?

 

[JerseyBoy]

Maybe so. But which country has "competitive service industry" ?
USA ?

If you don't have anything other than a meaningless (bull..) comment, I suggest you not post it. Sarcasm- and emoticon-infested comments can be tiring. Just a thought.

I think you are just trying to practice English by posting off-the-mark comments and starting some preposterous threads.

 

[Pachipro]

But really, which country in the world today has a competitive service industry? Astroboy, I believe, is not off base in asking that question.
Could it be India for the USA where basically all customer service, including banks and local city government business have their customer service in India? It's a shame when I call my local phone company that I hear someone with an Indian accent pretending that they are American and living in America asking for my account number.

The impact on Japan of it's export business is being felt on a daily basis as it is in every other industrial country of the world today. However, one must look at China as they have a population of a billion people with many industrial countries having factories there. Therefore, one can say that they (industrialized countries) are "exporting" in a way, by building their factories to service 1/6th of the worlds population.

Therefore, much revenue will be heading back to the home countries as China expands and grows as they will probably be the only country to actually expand and grow, albeit it a slower pace, while rest of the world suffers financially and slowly enters into a one world bank and government in the next few years as the industrialized countries' stock markets get slowly depleted and the wealth is transferred to the elites in the most major transfer of wealth from the working class to the elites the world has ever seen.

Japan, being a non-debtor nation will probably come out somewhere on the top with China, Switzerland and a few other countries. With the Japanese yen being just about the strongest currency in the world today thanks to the unwinding of the carry trade, maybe one should be asking, will we see 60 or 50 yen per $ in the coming year or two? as there are quite a few, including Bloomberg News, that are predicting it?

Also, gold and silver will also be reaching stratospheric highs in the next year and then some as Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs (one of the 'elites') also hinted at. Those that fail to heed the 'hints' of the elites will be left broke as their fiat currencies (backed by nothing!) become worthless.

I just heard on Bloomberg news that gold will probably be at $1,250/oz by the end of the year. Why is this? Because, as it has always been throughout world history, gold and silver have been the only real currency the whole world will accept.

Astroboy, I do not why you were banned, but your info has been spot on as I have also proved what you have been saying with a little research. Maybe some people are angry at hearing the truth or do not want to accept believing that what they have been taught has been all lies when it comes to economics, business, and finance as well as government. However, in the next year or two they will soon come to understand as all the economies of the world slowly collapse into a one world banking, government, economic system with the elites controlling everything as they slowly consolidate into just a few companies with Goldman Sachs being at the top.

 

[ArmandV]

I just posted a new blog on the subject of the current exchange rate:

Dollar Still Weak Against Yen

 

[Dogen Z]

But really, which country in the world today has a competitive service industry? Astroboy, I believe, is not off base in asking that question.
...
Japan, being a non-debtor nation will probably come out somewhere on the top with China, Switzerland and a few other countries. With the Japanese yen being just about the strongest currency in the world today thanks to the unwinding of the carry trade, maybe one should be asking, will we see 60 or 50 yen per $ in the coming year or two? as there are quite a few, including Bloomberg News, that are predicting it?
...
Astroboy, I do not why you were banned, but your info has been spot on as I have also proved what you have been saying with a little research..

Sometimes Astroboy tried to be deliberately provocative but a lot of what he said was accurate. As for service industry competition, you have McDonald's and Denny's vs Freshness Burger and the local okazuya; medicine-cosmetic surgery is cheaper in Korea than Japan, and some transplant operations are better in the U.S. than Japan; business and IT consulting-the U.S. might have an edge (for now); upper level education-the U.S. wins; etc.

I can't see a complete meltdown for the U.S. and I think the dollar will retain some strength. BOJ is threatening to intervene if the fx reaches 85 yen/$. But, Obama's people are telling Japan, "Dont do it." I think we'll get a better idea of the economy after Obama's first 100 days in office--it's going to be interesting.

 

[JerseyBoy]

Sometimes Astroboy tried to be deliberately provocative but a lot of what he said was accurate. As for service industry competition, you have McDonald's and Denny's vs Freshness Burger and the local okazuya; medicine-cosmetic surgery is cheaper in Korea than Japan, and some transplant operations are better in the U.S. than Japan; business and IT consulting-the U.S. might have an edge (for now); upper level education-the U.S. wins; etc.
I can't see a complete meltdown for the U.S. and I think the dollar will retain some strength. BOJ is threatening to intervene if the fx reaches 85 yen/$. But, Obama's people are telling Japan, "Dont do it." I think we'll get a better idea of the economy after Obama's first 100 days in office--it's going to be interesting.

The problem is that all the major economies have already invested in the Dollar denominated assets and financial instruments for so many decades.

Even though that fact itself does not make the trend keep its course, it would be difficult for Japan and other countries including China to decouple from the Dollar. Japan's Dollar-based reserve would lose values significantly as the dollar goes down precipitously.

It is very naive to say categorically that the strong currency makes the country win or outlast others. With a too strong currency, the country (or economy) may experience deindustrialization as it becomes too cheap to import from overseas (It's human's nature to take an easy way). At the well-balanced currency markets, for example, both countries (in a bilateral trade) can enjoy the mutually beneficial trade relationship, provided both countries are on the same stage of industrialization.

Services industries such as fast food, restaurant, hair salon, and other low tech services do not play a big role in the country's competitiveness. I mean you don't have to be in the highly industrialized country to flip burgers or cut hairs (Same people in Kabul can do the same things). IT, business consultation, and other high-skill based services would play a big role in the country's competitiveness.

PS. Astro posted mostly super-simplified (and often misguided) comments by haphazardly throwing in numbers and simple economic formula from Wiki or snippets of news articles. It's highly likely he is just being an Eikaiwa bandit you sometimes see in Japan.

 

[Dogen Z]

We have a difference of opinion on a number of issues.

First of all, it's my belief that the value of the dollar is based partially on the value of total assets the U.S. presently owns but moreso on the value of the probable future growth of the total U.S. economy, so it's valued kind of like a share of stock in the U.S. as a whole. If the U.S. has no future prospects, then its value will dive but if there's hope for the future then it will retain strength.

Regarding service companies, I think the foreign revenues of service companies such as McDonalds, Starbucks, Disney Entertainment, etc. are not insignificant and adds to the competiveness of the U.S. Competitivenss is also enhanced by more professional services such as Accenture, Price Waterhouse Coopers, Wharton School of Business, etc.

Finally, I think Astroboy knew what he was talking about even if he used figures from Wikipedia. We all are, afterall, kind of lazy and very busy. I think his language ability hindered what he wanted to say, but at least he tried. When he went off on the deep end about other countries, I just stopped reading.

 

[JerseyBoy]

We have a difference of opinion on a number of issues.
First of all, it's my belief that the value of the dollar is based partially on the value of total assets the U.S. presently owns but moreso on the value of the probable future growth of the total U.S. economy, so it's valued kind of like a share of stock in the U.S. as a whole. If the U.S. has no future prospects, then its value will dive but if there's hope for the future then it will retain strength.

All the hard currencies are fiat money based on the confidence and trust in the entities which issue it. So, it is not a simply sum of total assets. Also, it is very complex to who owns what in the multinational business environment.

Regarding service companies, I think the foreign revenues of service companies such as McDonalds, Starbucks, Disney Entertainment, etc. are not insignificant and adds to the competiveness of the U.S. Competitivenss is also enhanced by more professional services such as Accenture, Price Waterhouse Coopers, Wharton School of Business, etc.

McDonald's, Starbucks, and other Mac-job type of businesses do contribute to the economy. My point is the cashiers, attendants, food preparers, and other similar positions do not require high skills. So, it is a mote issue if you are comparing competitiveness for that type of service industries among different countries.

Disney is a totally different beast and should not be mixed in with the previous examples. For example, Disney cannot create their creativity-based products in Afghanistan or other underdeveloped or developing countries. Those service industries which utilize the technology, intellectual creativity, sophisticated marketing skills and brain powers, and other high skills will make a difference which country would have an upper-hand in the international economic landscape.

My previous mention of consultation services also cover those professional services. So, we are on the same footing there.

Those high end service industries (which include those professional industries) strive in the industrialized countries with a solid higher educational system, higher skilled workers/professionals, entrepreneurship, capital bases, and etc. So, they cannot be planted in any country like flipping on a switch. Japan is behind in this field as major consulting service providers are all based in USA or Europe.

inally, I think Astroboy knew what he was talking about even if he used figures from Wikipedia. We all are, afterall, kind of lazy and very busy. I think his language ability hindered what he wanted to say, but at least he tried. When he went off on the deep end about other countries, I just stopped reading.

Yeah, I also stopped reading his posts as he lost his marbles somewhere...

 

[caster51]

Obama's economic stimulus policies target expansion of job opportunities as the top goal, with a hearty scale of public investment to be carried out toward that end.
this is a declaration of the unbending resolve to not let up on stimulus measures until such time that the recession has been brought under control and the economy is on the road to recovery.
The market's response to this stance, however, has been harsh.
the market wants ﾂ"reality over words.ﾂ"
market in the right direction, another and different dose of reality is required.
with the end of the administration of Bush, the political power of the USA has dipped to the lowest point since the end of World War II.
the U.S. economy, heavily dependent on outside capital for its health, finds itself deeply mired in recession amidst the exodus of such overseas money from its borders.
Under the current stagnant environment, in which Washington cannot possibly raise interest rates.
it will be impossible to attract international funds with foreign exchange policies. Besides this, there is also no epoch-making new industry (such as IT in the past) capable of acting as a magnet for overseas funds. the only remaining factor really capable of drawing capital to the United States is ﾂ"war.ﾂ"
If President Obama adds the ﾂ"reality of warﾂ" to his standard salvo of ﾂ"words and numbers,ﾂ" I think the U.S. economic recovery would soon grow relentless.

I think $ might drop to 70'yen


Do not squander America's stimulus on tax cuts
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

American Power Is on the Wane
American Power Is on the Wane
The End of Banking as We Know It
The End of Banking as We Know It (Published 2009)
HSBC says excessive bank leverage model "bankrupt"
HSBC says excessive bank leverage model "bankrupt"
What went wrong
What went wrong
Wall Street Voodoo
Opinion | Wall Street Voodoo (Published 2009)

When the hegemonism is taken from the United States, anything doesn't remain.
Because it is a key currency, the dollar also is trusted.

 

[ShadowSpirit]

But really, which country in the world today has a competitive service industry? Astroboy, I believe, is not off base in asking that question.
Could it be India for the USA where basically all customer service, including banks and local city government business have their customer service in India? It's a shame when I call my local phone company that I hear someone with an Indian accent pretending that they are American and living in America asking for my account number.
The impact on Japan of it's export business is being felt on a daily basis as it is in every other industrial country of the world today. However, one must look at China as they have a population of a billion people with many industrial countries having factories there. Therefore, one can say that they (industrialized countries) are "exporting" in a way, by building their factories to service 1/6th of the worlds population.
Therefore, much revenue will be heading back to the home countries as China expands and grows as they will probably be the only country to actually expand and grow, albeit it a slower pace, while rest of the world suffers financially and slowly enters into a one world bank and government in the next few years as the industrialized countries' stock markets get slowly depleted and the wealth is transferred to the elites in the most major transfer of wealth from the working class to the elites the world has ever seen.
Japan, being a non-debtor nation will probably come out somewhere on the top with China, Switzerland and a few other countries. With the Japanese yen being just about the strongest currency in the world today thanks to the unwinding of the carry trade, maybe one should be asking, will we see 60 or 50 yen per $ in the coming year or two? as there are quite a few, including Bloomberg News, that are predicting it?
Also, gold and silver will also be reaching stratospheric highs in the next year and then some as Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs (one of the 'elites') also hinted at. Those that fail to heed the 'hints' of the elites will be left broke as their fiat currencies (backed by nothing!) become worthless.
I just heard on Bloomberg news that gold will probably be at $1,250/oz by the end of the year. Why is this? Because, as it has always been throughout world history, gold and silver have been the only real currency the whole world will accept.
Astroboy, I do not why you were banned, but your info has been spot on as I have also proved what you have been saying with a little research. Maybe some people are angry at hearing the truth or do not want to accept believing that what they have been taught has been all lies when it comes to economics, business, and finance as well as government. However, in the next year or two they will soon come to understand as all the economies of the world slowly collapse into a one world banking, government, economic system with the elites controlling everything as they slowly consolidate into just a few companies with Goldman Sachs being at the top.

At the rate that things are escallating for the American economy, India might start using America for its outsourcing needs.

 

[JerseyBoy]

Obama's economic stimulus policies target expansion of job opportunities as the top goal, with a hearty scale of public investment to be carried out toward that end.
this is a declaration of the unbending resolve to not let up on stimulus measures until such time that the recession has been brought under control and the economy is on the road to recovery.
The market's response to this stance, however, has been harsh.
the market wants "reality over words."
market in the right direction, another and different dose of reality is required.
with the end of the administration of Bush, the political power of the USA has dipped to the lowest point since the end of World War II.
the U.S. economy, heavily dependent on outside capital for its health, finds itself deeply mired in recession amidst the exodus of such overseas money from its borders.
Under the current stagnant environment, in which Washington cannot possibly raise interest rates.

Obama's Treasury Secretary Geithner said he believes in the strong dollar policy. I am not sure how serious he is. The Bush Administration over the last 8 years also advocated the strong dollar without demonstrating any action to that effect. So, the markets are very skeptical.

With the treasury bonds valued over USD 1 trillion on offer in the near future, Obama needs to tell the markets his administration supports the strong dollar. Otherwise, who is going to buy the t-bill when its value is going down?

But, propping up the dollar is a difficult task as the standard monetary tool to raise an interest rate is the option the US economy cannot afford under the current economic downturn.

The sudden exodus from the US dollar denominated assets and instruments is, however, unlikely in the short term because that would guarantee they will go down in value. The caveat is that the dollar based asset holders would dump their holdings in droves once they determine there is no way they can prevent the precipitous decline in value. At that point, they will try to recover something rather than nothing.

If the J-yen keeps going up against the dollar, Japan's export-oriented industries will be pummeled senseless, causing further downward pressure on the Japanese economy.

 

[ArmandV]

If the J-yen keeps going up against the dollar, Japan's export-oriented industries will be pummeled senseless, causing further downward pressure on the Japanese economy.

Not to mention the tourist industry in Japan, as I've pointed out. Instead of going to Japan, Americans would find Europe more enticing since the dollar is performing better against the Euro.

 

[Dogen Z]

>JerseyBoy said: ...McDonald's, Starbucks, and other Mac-job type of businesses do contribute to the economy. My point is ...

I'm afraid I was using the economic definitions of competitiveness and service industries. So we were discussing apples and oranges. Sorry.

>ArmandV said: Not to mention the tourist industry in Japan, as I've pointed out. Instead of going to Japan, Americans would find Europe more enticing since the dollar is performing better against the Euro.

OTOH, lots of Japanese tourists will be going to LA, NY, & Hawaii, as well as to Europe.

 

[JerseyBoy]

Investors and speculators are always in a hunt for a safe haven for their money. Once they get comfortable with the other markets (stocks, bonds in Europe, and others), the yen will start losing its value against the other hard currencies. Everything is like a water bed. One spot goes up; the other goes down. Everything is shuffling the money from one place to another to preserve their asset or catch an upswing of the market in this volatile economy.

 

[caster51]

The World Won't Buy Unlimited U.S. Debt

The World Won't Buy Unlimited U.S. Debt

Saudi prince says U.S. ties at risk over Mideast

http://wire.antiwar.com/2009/01/22/saudi-prince-says-us-ties-at-risk-over-mideast/

Investors and speculators are always in a hunt for a safe haven for their money. Once they get comfortable with the other markets (stocks, bonds in Europe, and others), the yen will start losing its value against the other hard currencies. Everything is like a water bet. One spot goes up; the other goes down. Everything is shuffling the money from one place to another to preserve their asset or catch an upswing of the market in this volatile economy

is it for long term or short term
we are not talking about general consideration

 

[Dogen Z]

Nakagawa ruse?

The yen has been falling against the dollar since last week, reaching 97￥/$ today. According to BusinessWeek, this is the result of Nakagawa's antics at the G7 summit; investors have lost confidence in Japan and are no longer buying the yen. Some say the exchange rate may hit the 100-104 ￥/$ rate in a few weeks and stay there. This is great news for Toyota, Honda, Sony, et al.

Could Nakagawa's antics have been a ruse to weaken the yen? ☝ Do you think Nakagawa and Aso are smart and diablolical enough to create such a ploy!?

Me, neither. However, the outcome is good for Japan.

 

[JerseyBoy]

This is great news for Toyota, Honda, Sony, et al. .

Regardless of the exchange rates, the US's auto market will stagnate for this year. Japanese exporters won't be able to increase production for the US market, as there is not much demand there. However, the favorable exchange rate will help them reduce their loss.

 

[Mahoujin Tsukai]

It has already reached 100 yen = 1 USD right?

 

[JerseyBoy]

It has already reached 100 yen = 1 USD right?

The Japanese Yen will go back to JPY 100 to JPY 110 per 1 USD range in coming months. The strong yen we have witnessed for the last few months is not sustainable, given the severe weakness of the Japanese economy. Coupled with its current account deficit it just registered, the trend will be a weaker Yen.

 

[ArmandV]

Funny, even before I saw the last few comments posted here I just completed a blog on this subject.

Airfares have dropped in price, the dollar is looking a little better against the yen.

Japan Travel Looking Better For Consumers

 

[Dogen Z]

finally

If anyone's keeping track, the yen finally broke the 100 yen/U.S. dollar yesterday. It's now trading at a little over than mark. This is due, I think, to the recent optimism in the world economy.

So has the world touched bottom yet? Well, maybe...but more must be done to fix the banking system as today's market showed. The new mark-to-market rule will help the U.S. financial system a bit, but there's still grave concern about the huge holdings of questionalbe assets it holds. (And I don't think you can fault Obama, he's doing everything he knows to get thingts moving again as quickly as possible.)

 

[pipokun]

...
The new mark-to-market rule will help the U.S. financial system a bit
...

It is 147% true that the new system helps the US banks, but is it OK to call it as "mark-to-market" in English? And I am just curious if banks would restart lending to hyper sub prime mortgage debtors who have already bankrupted.

 

[Dogen Z]

It is 147% true that the new system helps the US banks, but is it OK to call it as "mark-to-market" in English? And I am just curious if banks would restart lending to hyper sub prime mortgage debtors who have already bankrupted.

"Mark-to-Market" is a finance/accounting term---shortcut for saying pricing an asset to the current market price. And I think it's common practice for bank not to lend to people who are bankrupt.

Anyway, today the yen dropped back slightly under 100 yen/dollar. Presumably it will fluctuate close to this level for awhile.