The Big One Again

[thomas]

Lest we lean back and assume everything's safe around here...

New 'Big One' forecast: four years

The risk of the southern Kanto region including Tokyo being hit by a major temblor within the next four years could be as high as about 70 percent, according to a study compiled by Monday by a team of researchers at the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute.

The figure is the same as the 70 percent forecast given for a magnitude 7.0 temblor hitting the region in the ambiguous "next 30 years" that has been repeatedly issued by the government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion on the basis of intervals between large quakes in the past.

Naoshi Hirata, a professor at the institute and a member of the team, said the risk of a big quake may have risen due to the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that hit in March 2011 off the Tohoku region, spawning tsunami that wiped out wide stretches of the coast.

Since the March disaster, seismic activity has been intensifying in the southern Kanto region and quakes with a magnitude of more than 3.0 have occurred about five times more frequently than in usual years.

=> New 'Big One' forecast: four years | The Japan Times Online
=> Big quake could hit Tokyo within 4 years, researchers warn ? Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion

 

[Kirie_Maiden]

Oh lord, Japan just doesn't get a break, does it?

 

[Astroboy]

Earthquake & Tsunami are not avoidable in Japan. It cannot be helped as far as living in Japan. I suggest foreigners to join drill regularly conducted by local authority, school or corporations.

But don't worry too much about earthquake as most of buildings in Japan are earthquake-proof, and risk to die in earthquake is very low, but aftermath, such as tsunami and fire, is more risky. So, well prepare and well drill.

 

[Chidoriashi]

astroboy and i disagree about many things, but I am with him here. the only thing science has proven to me is they know pretty much nothing about predicting earthquakes. the best thing you can do is just prepare and be ready, and don't live your life in worry.

 

[Davey]

It's kinda of scary when a big earthquake (wasn't that big magnitude 5.5, but still) happens just below Mt. Fuji like this morning.



(source )

 

[KazeSenshi]

How to prepare yourself in the case of tsunamis?

 

[Davey]

How to prepare yourself in the case of tsunamis?

You run up the the highest place near you, either a strong building or a nearby hill or mountain. Make sure you know the fastest route from your house.

 

[zeroyon]

But don't worry too much about earthquake as most of buildings in Japan are earthquake-proof, and risk to die in earthquake is very low, but aftermath, such as tsunami and fire, is more risky. So, well prepare and well drill.

I wouldn't really count on many Japanese buildings being "earthquake-proof". There were many, many buildings that toppled in the 1995 Kobe earthquake that were considered "earthquake-proof" at the time. The reason the Kobe quake did so much damage to buildings at such a low moment magnitude (6.8) is because the fault ruptured directly beneath the city, and because it was extremely shallow. Shallower quakes produce more ground displacement, just take a look at the amount the building displaces in this video:

Even if you are in a building that was built after 1995 and are in the Tokyo area, I wouldn't consider it "quake-proof", either.
It was discovered in 2005 that the fault depth below Tokyo is much, much shallower than previously thought before: Tokyo's fault line just below the surface : Nature News. The building codes for the Tokyo area that were revised after the 1995 quake didn't take this higher expected ground motion at high magnitudes into consideration (Note: an 8.0 magnitude earthquake is 32 times stronger than a 7.0 mag earthquake, for people that don't already know...). I'm not sure if the building codes have been re-revised with this new data.

If an 8+ magnitude quake hits the Tokyo area, and you are in a house, your best bet would be to dive next to your bed or next to your kitchen counter. If your roof collapses, you will have a high chance to survive next to large, incompressible objects due to the air pockets that are formed. If you hide under a bed or table and your roof comes down, you are as good as a pancake.

I hope I didn't scare everyone too much

 

[Astroboy]

No man knows when he shall die and where he shall die, although he knows he must die.
It doesn't matter whether Big One come or not.

 

[Orange]

There is a scientific method to induce the earthquake that is due. If a precise prediction is impossible, we can make the earthquake come to us. The only problem is the liability issue: who is going to pay for damages caused by an induced earthquake?