Dear Ocean Dude
To me, it is rather the comparison between the hemline rule and the effect of the death penalty upon violent crime that seems suprious. While there was a relationship between hemlines and the economy, till the 1980's I believe no one proposed that hemlines were influencing the economy.
Many peole do believe however, that the death penalty has an effect upon violent crime. People believe in a deterrent effect.
But there is no research to support this belief, that I am aware of.
The converse relationship has however been found by empiracle research.
Ways in which the death penalty may *augment* violent crime are not difficult to imagine. Possible mechanisms include: a violent state encourages violent citizens, the death penalty devalues life, death penalty creates in criminals a sense of bravado or heroism, its them or me-ism, and the death penalty acts as form of surrogate suicide.
It *may* also be pertinent to note that in this period of a high rate of executions (due to the policy of the current law minister) there have already been three indiscriminate stabbings, one occuring yesterday, since I last posted.
Here are some indiscriminate stabbing cases from the Japanese wikipedia. The last one does not really belong on the list since noone died. But the culprit is still at large.
Fukakawa indiscriminate stabbing 17th June 1981
Ikebukuro indiscriminate stabbing 8th Septemeber 1999
Shimonoseki indiscriminate stabbing 29th September 1999
Fuzoku Ikeda Primary school stabbing 8th June 2001
Ibaraki serial killing (and indiscriminate at station) 22nd March 2008
Akihabara indiscriminate stabbing 8th June 2008
Oosaka Station random stabbing 22nd June 2008 (still at large)
The Ikebukuro and Shimonoseki cases occured in quick succession. I wonder if there had been many death penalties carried out at that time? I chekced. It seems that the law minister Jinnai authorised 3 death penalties to be carried out the day following the Ikebukuro stabbing, which is common practice.
This year there have been a large number of executions
3 executions on 1st February
4 executions on 10th April (shortly after the Ibaraki Incident)
3 executions on 16th June (shortly after Akihabara Incident)
The surrogate suicide motive - by killing people, the killer get his or herself killed by the state - seems to have been present in juniour school, the Shimonoseki and Akihabara killings. The Shimonoseki killings were partly a copy of the Ikebukuro killings. The Akihabara killings were very similar to those at Shimonoseki and on the same day as those at the school in Osaka. Additionally, all of these killings seem to have been framed as protest against society.
I hope that there are no more indicriminate stabbings. I think that abolishing the death penalty will help.