PG-rated : 40 reasons to think that the Japanese are superficial => OFFTOPIC about teenage pregnanci

[PaulTB]

Split from this thread

Err, no sorry, but where I come from this is extremely rare, like one person out of 10,000. I'd call them extreme cases...

One out of 10,000? Maybe. But this is the sort of thing you can check.

http://www.mafamily.org/Statutory Rape Report.pdf
"In 1993, 1,572 births in California were to mothers 14 years old or younger."

http://www.dof.ca.gov/HTML/DEMOGRAP/NewHist_E-4.XLS
Population of California, Jan 1 1993: 31,150,000

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06000.html
California, 2000: 7.3% under 5, 27.3% under 18

I'll have to take a few liberties with the calculation - such as assuming
those '14 years or under' only go as far down as 12 and assuming the age
distribution is even between 5 years and 17 years old and the same in 2000
as it was in 1993

= 20% (5 to 17 inclusive)
~= 4.6% (12 to 14 inclusive)
~= 2.3% (12 to 14 inclusive and female)
= 716,450
= 23 girls from 12 to 14 pregnant out of every 10,000 in California in 1993.

 

[Maciamo]

= 23 girls from 12 to 14 pregnant out of every 10,000 in California in 1993.

Assuming that California has one of the highest rate of teen pregnancy in the US, and that the US average is higher than EU average, I think I was quite close (although I hesitated in the number of "0" to write).

 

[PaulTB]

Assuming that California has one of the highest rate of teen pregnancy in the US

No need to assume, that was mentioned in one of my links.

Although I suspect the US numbers have gone up since 1993 - the Bush Administration is promoting "Just don't have sex" campains which "Just don't work," is anti-contraception and has distinct anti-sex-education trends.

, and that the US average is higher than EU average,

It is.

I was quite close

Well you were probably within an order of magnitude.

However I don't know if I'd call that "extremely rare," it's certainly high enough for a new incident to be in the news every day and without comparative figures for a Japanese prefacture you can't say which is worse.*

One factor I missed in my calculations is that the California figures were for births but the comment by ragedaddy was about pregnancies. From my first link that would add a factor of two.

* Well you can guess - and my guess is that Japan probably is worse in terms of numbers, although off-hand it would appear that the US has greater ratio of 'abuse' to 'promiscuousness'.

 

[Elizabeth]

No need to assume, that was mentioned in one of my links.

Although I suspect the US numbers have gone up since 1993 - the Bush Administration is promoting "Just don't have sex" campains which "Just don't work," is anti-contraception and has distinct anti-sex-education trends.

Actually there has been a well-documented downward trend in teenage pregnancy/abortion/births for at least the last decade, according to this source since1991. Figures may not be available for the current administration -- although no news has come in of a national reversal that I'm aware of.

http://www.cwfa.org/articledisplay.asp?id=4959&department=CWA&categoryid=family

 

[PaulTB]

Actually there has been a well-documented downward trend in teenage pregnancy/abortion/births for at least the last decade, according to this source since1991. Figures may not be available for the current administration -- although no news has come in of a national reversal that I'm aware of.

http://www.cwfa.org/articledisplay.asp?id=4959&department=CWA&categoryid=family

Hmm, well I was only guessing on that bit. I don't think the source you quoted is particularly unbiased but I've no reason to suspect those figures are false.

As for the programmes to promote abstinence - I've seen studies to say they don't work and only wishful thinking to say they do.
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6957

 

[PaulTB]

19 is still teenage and I have never heard of anyone of that age getting pregnant among my European acquaintances. However in Japan I have (and many times).

That's totally anecdotal evidence. If you want to say that there are more 18/19 year old women pregnant in Japan than in the US* then there are plenty of statistical sources to check - going by what you know from among the people you know just doesn't cut it.

* Which I would not be at all surprised by.