Japan scrambles jets against China

What the heck are you talking about? Who cares if the island is uninhabited? That doesn't change the way Okinawans feel. You have never been there, so you are just making excuses to put China on top.

Also, about five years back, Chinese fishing boats went into Japanese waters, caused a diplomatic shitstorm, and then were hailed as heroes when they went back home. China can take some responsibility for that.

The bottom line is: Okinawans are happy as part of Japan and are afraid of China. Time and again, I would talk about the U.S. bases, and nobody liked them, but they felt it was the best defense against China. China is scary. Japan can not be an aggressor for being on territory that they legally own.

Go to Okinawa, educate yourself about daily life there, then you can tell me my argument is invalid. You'll still be wrong, but at least you won't look like someone who has zero idea what they're talking about.

While all out war seems remote in the near future, I believe there is a 100% chance of a China-Japan war by the later half of this century.

For the following reasons;

#1 Both sides truly believes that they are right thus it is impossible to negotiate. Even if a gov. decides to step down, the agreement cannot be upheld because the gov. that does that would be immediately overthrown. Furthermore, the act if simply trying to negotiate will change the status-quo and immediately cause the initiator to lose leverage in the negotiation. Thus despite costs, it is actually most logical to not propose negotiation and continue escalation.
#2 Chinese people hates the Japanese, this is reinforced by their education system and media. Essentially you have an entire country of soldiers who are waiting for their chance to wipe out the enemies. In fact, the un-elected communist party may be the only thing that's keeping china from going on a rampage. A democratic China = immediate war because besides the upper class, practically everyone else in China is yearning for a war, especially with Japan. FinancialWar would be considered very mild nationalist in actual China, most of whom will be calling for total extermination of all their historical enemies.
#3 The threshold for war for China may be a LOT lower than what a typical western military experts think. If you ask a Chinese, they will tell you that it is worth it even if you lose 10 men, but if 1 enemy is dead. In other words, the simple act of killing enemies becomes a benefit in their cost/benefit analysis. In other words, expect China to be willing to go to war way before they think they have an overwhelming advantage.
#4 Chinese people have a strong sense of racial superiority. They believe Chinese people are the most evolved forms of human, All other people are considered less-evolved.
#5 China means the "Nation in the middle", basically they do not see other countries as equals. Unless you become a tributary state to China, china will eventually go to war with you to make you one.
#6 China's economy will soon surpass that of the US, with that their ability to afford a larger, better military. There's no conceivable reason to see that they will let such an advantage slide.

In conclusion, a total war between china and Japan may not be immediate, but will be inevitable. Point 1 alone makes it impossible for either side to do anything besides escalation. In fact the only way for a war not to happen is for one side to make a fatal logical mistake (costing that side moderate loss, and other side moderate gain). Unfortunately, China and Japan is now trapped in a prisoners dilemma and the only logical conclusion is war.

lmao what an analysis.

In the second half of this century, China's economy will be more than 10 bigger than Japan's, largest in the world by a large margin, Chinese and Japanese people mentality will change, Chinese will most likely to become a democratic country, following a similar political path of Republic of China and Republic of Korea.

In second half of this century, India and USA will become China largest trading partner while Japan will become less important economically to China, while China will still likely to remain to be Japan's largest trading partner, so having a war with your largest trading partner is generally not a good idea.

biscuit00 said:

Both sides truly believes that they are right thus it is impossible to negotiate.

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In this case, I support the existing territory claim. Since the islands are uninhabited, it truly is a matter of resource grabbing that the area is in dispute. It is unlikely that China would make the effort it is if there wasn't some small profit available. If they were truly barren, none of this would come up.

Japan has the decades of modern history to uphold its claim, while China has nothing, really. China claims a lot of stuff as China: in the case of Tibet, it managed to steal the land and displace the people enough that Tibet can probably never be free, any more than New York City can go back to its people. With Taiwan, they maintain ownership, but it'll probably never be the case. (and in the minds of some, they own Okinawa, though the Ryukyu never ever considered themselves Chinese) China's one of the oldest countries in the world, but it still behaves like a little kid. Hopefully they will one day be satisfied merely being the 3rd largest, the most populous, and richest country on the planet. America hasn't done a perfect job handling being number one, and I doubt China will do much better. Not as long as they keep up these territory complaints, at least. Their neighbours will hate them.

nahadef said:

In this case, I support the existing territory claim. Since the islands are uninhabited, it truly is a matter of resource grabbing that the area is in dispute. It is unlikely that China would make the effort it is if there wasn't some small profit available. If they were truly barren, none of this would come up.

Japan has the decades of modern history to uphold its claim, while China has nothing, really. China claims a lot of stuff as China: in the case of Tibet, it managed to steal the land and displace the people enough that Tibet can probably never be free, any more than New York City can go back to its people. With Taiwan, they maintain ownership, but it'll probably never be the case. (and in the minds of some, they own Okinawa, though the Ryukyu never ever considered themselves Chinese) China's one of the oldest countries in the world, but it still behaves like a little kid. Hopefully they will one day be satisfied merely being the 3rd largest, the most populous, and richest country on the planet. America hasn't done a perfect job handling being number one, and I doubt China will do much better. Not as long as they keep up these territory complaints, at least. Their neighbours will hate them.

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International territorial disputes is an inevitable part of international politics, most of the time is not about money, but about territorial integrity.

List of territorial disputes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Here is an incomplete list of current disputes. However as you can see, Tibet is not a claim nor a dispute, because it is currently under Chinese sovereignty without any claim from any other nations to the region, and no government in the world supports or reconginize Tibet as an independent country, so it's not a "claim", that Tibet is a part of CHina, it's a fact that Tibet is a part of China and it's undisputed by any nations, heck, even the Tibetan government in exile support Tibet is part of China but demand greater autonomy, so learn your history and facts...

So defending your terrestrial integrity is "behaving like a kid", look at all those kids involved in disputes.

Who care if people hate or love China, the leader of a nation is not to get other countries to love or hate their countries, but to respect their country.

FinancialWar said:

International territorial disputes is an inevitable part of international politics, most of the time is not about money, but about territorial integrity.

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Yeah, right. China needs deserted rocks to maintain territorial integrity. That's such a whiny claim.

I get it, no matter the subject, you will support China, 100%. The tenth time you did it on this forum, I totally got it. China is always right.

As a Canadian, I was very disappointed years back when Canada decided to overlook all of China's wrongs for the sake of business. And most of the world does as well. A small Middle Eastern country that does what China has done gets sanctioned, but China is too important financially, so it gets to do what it wants.

No, China doesn't need my love to survive. But in the long term, I hope China is able to respect itself. This is a web forum though, and I have no expectation for my opinion to sway the myopic leaders of China, so I will speak out as I feel the need. China doesn't control Japan yet, and they can't stop me.

nahadef said:

Yeah, right. China needs deserted rocks to maintain territorial integrity. That's such a whiny claim.

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Grow up, all nations defends their territory. Why are you singling China out on the matter?

nahadef said:

I get it, no matter the subject, you will support China, 100%. The tenth time you did it on this forum, I totally got it. China is always right.

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Yes, I'm biased and so are you and most people on this forum towards Japan and the West. Too much CNN, BBC and HNK obviously.

nahadef said:

As a Canadian, I was very disappointed years back when Canada decided to overlook all of China's wrongs for the sake of business

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When did you realise that all countries act in self interest? And since when is Western government the moral paragon of nations? LOL, hypocrites...

nahadef said:

And most of the world does as well. A small Middle Eastern country that does what China has done gets sanctioned, but China is too important financially, so it gets to do what it wants.

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Errr no, China is probably the most restrained world power today, look at the behaviour of America, Russia, UK, Nato etc. What ME country are you talking about? Most of the sanctions comes from the West, namely America.

nahadef said:

No, China doesn't need my love to survive. But in the long term, I hope China is able to respect itself. This is a web forum though, and I have no expectation for my opinion to sway the myopic leaders of China, so I will speak out as I feel the need. China doesn't control Japan yet, and they can't stop menu.

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In the long term China will be respected by the world, including Japan, you and your children, that is inevitable given the current economic, military, cultural, academic and technology progress of China.

I hope you start learning Mandarin so that you can communicate with your grand children when they invite you for Chinese new year.

Welcome to the Chinese century.

You're such an A-type example of ignorance. You could be from any country, and I wouldn't be surprised. It's not a peculiar kind of Chinese ignorance in any way. Just sad people relying on nationalism to get their self-esteem.

China is not defending anything, it's claiming things and flexing it's muscle. Good for them. True power is in not proving it though. China is all about proving to the world they aren't the Qing Dynasty or something. Who knows why they act like little kids. They just do.

China becoming #1 does not mean China will be respected in the future, anymore than America is now. You respect America, right? No? Oh, so now you know, might is nothing like respect. Rather than consider China the new world superpower, let's consider it the new America, since that is the direction of things now. China is on track to be the world joke America currently is. Take pride.

Yeah, the future is Chinese. I agree. My sister-in-law is a native Mandarin speaker, I think that's great. I want her to speak only Mandarin to my daughter at family meetings. I'm happy that my daughter will be more international than her dad. I have no nationalism, and no racial superiority, so I'm fine with some other country being in power. Of course, the more money, and genuine education Chinese get (not the type of dipshit stats someone posts in their signature), racism will dissipate among the people, and Chinese will Americanise all on their own thanks to freedom.

A big difference between me and you though: I welcome a non-white world power since it will place responsibility onto non-white people, while you want China to be the one in charge to teach everyone else a lesson ("Welcome to the Chinese century...start learning Mandarin"). It's so based on your low self-esteem. Hopefully you feel good enough about yourself personally in the future to not need the country you were born in to have power to feel good about yourself.

Welcome to existential despair and the nightmare that your personal reality is. Hope you get a girlfriend soon and you won't be so pissy all the time

FinancialWar said:

lmao what an analysis.

In the second half of this century, China's economy will be more than 10 bigger than Japan's, largest in the world by a large margin, Chinese and Japanese people mentality will change, Chinese will most likely to become a democratic country, following a similar political path of Republic of China and Republic of Korea.

In second half of this century, India and USA will become China largest trading partner while Japan will become less important economically to China, while China will still likely to remain to be Japan's largest trading partner, so having a war with your largest trading partner is generally not a good idea.

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China will declare war on Japan before that happens.
You seem to have misunderstood my conclusion. China will declare war on Japan, not the other way around.
In fact your own response supports that outcome.

"while Japan will become less important economically to China"
Which further reduces the cost to China for the war. Also your arrogance is clearly shown, and this is very true to many Chinese. It is attitudes like yours and other Chinese that made me believe that war will be inevitable.

If anything, I can assume that you believe that once China gets to that 10x economic power, or even much less say 1.5x or 2x. You will undoubtedly think that China would win a war vs. Japan, in fact that may be true based on number crunching. However, you probably also think that the cost to China on an all out extermination war vs. Japan will be next to nothing, because in your mind China will just be rolling over everyone without facing much resistance.

To put this in numbers: say total value of objective = 100.
And true probability of winning = p
and true cost of war = tc
Thus the value of war = 100*p - tc
in which case a country will go to war if 100*p - tc > 0

However, China's own arrogance probably have p set at something like .99
and cost at near 0
making their calculated value of war (100*p - c) a very large positive number. (keeping in mind that the calculated value is not the true value, which can only be done after the war is finished)
China's desire for war will increase exponentially as their economy and military grow stronger.

'Welcome to the Chinese century."
Yes, a century painted by blood. Probably not good for anyone. Undoubtedly China will be underestimating costs of war due to sheer arrogance, especially once the new generation, who no longer remember WWII and the horrors of war comes to power.

I find it extremely funny that you're accusing me of boosting my self-esteem with the rise of China when you're the only who view China's rise as some sort of threat, it shows that you are the only who's insecure. China doesn't have to prove anything, it's military "aggression" as you and the Japanese would put it is just a natural manifestation of it's economic rise.

Back to the topic of Diaoyu island, yes they are defending their territory, and it is claimed by both the government of the PRC and ROC, what a coincidence, is the Taiwanese government acting like a child too? The islands were historically Chinese and was taken from China during prior to WW2. So the claim is not without basis. Japan is also claiming to a huge island currently under Russian control, maybe they should stop acting like kids too?

The fact that you can be so dismissive of the power of nationalism should that you do not have the Asian mind set of national/racial pride, and I truly find it surprising for someone who live in a country like Japan not to understand this mentality, because the Japanese is probably the most proud people in Asia, if not the world. They can't stand the fact that they are overtaken by China and Korea in recent decades and falling back to their original ranking of third place prior to Meiji era. However, this might be understandable since you said you're originally from Canada, nations like Canada and Australia are not civilisations like China/Korea/Japan, there are just nations created by the British on new lands conquered through colonisation, the people born into these countries are really just British or other race of some other immigrates, but they don't have any connection to neither Britain (or country of ancestry) nor to their country of birth. The point is, nationalism is a big deal in East Asia. And how you twist it to find your agenda, or how nationalism is a illness of low self esteem, maybe you should ask an average Japanese in your town "why did Japanese pursue policy of 富国強兵".

Yeah, you have no nationalism and racial superiority and yet you equate America, obvious a nation to the concept of freedom. Also, racism will not dissipate as people become Americanised, maybe you choose to ignore all the racism currently exist in America. Well I guess it's easy to just turn a blind eye since you claim to have no nationalism and no racial superiority, but in reality black run faster, Asians are smarter and White are more attractive, racial differences do exists and so do racial profiling, which exists both in the East and the West, though it's not as much of a taboo in Chinese culture/media as it is in America and the West, but yet racial attacks and murder and far more prevalent in America, so I have no freakin idea when you say racism will dissipate when Americanised thanks to freedom.

I never stated I want China to "teach everyone else a lesson" did I? How did you draw this conclusion from "Chinese Century and learning Mandarin"? Why do you automatically assume that the Chinese will act the way the British did in the British century or how the America do in the American century?

Resorting to personal attacks are we? Must have ran out of valid arguments.

biscuit00 said:

To put this in numbers: say total value of objective = 100.
And true probability of winning = p
and true cost of war = tc
Thus the value of war = 100*p - tc
in which case a country will go to war if 100*p - tc > 0

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you formulated the net present value of war economy. What a talent.

Now please let me how can I calculate p and tc?

FinancialWar said:

you formulated the net present value of war economy. What a talent.

Now please let me how can I calculate p and tc?

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wow you completely lack reading comprehension too. Their calculations are not the point.

the true p cannot be calculated, as it would require total understanding of both side's capabilities. However, either China or Japan know the true military capability of the other side, thus they must calculate their own chance of success based on the limited knowledge they have, let call this calculated probably p(c), p(j) respectively. However, there exist a true value p given the conditions given.
The point is that China will be vastly overestimating their probability of winning over the true probability, making China to want to go war more readily.

tc, or true cost, can only be calculated AFTER the fact. But on deciding on whether to go to war or not, a country must make a calculated, or estimated cost of war. Again, the point is that China will be vastly underestimating this cost, again decreasing the threshold in which they are willing to war.

it's funny that FinancialWar did not even attempt to refute any of the main points.
I thinkthis just showed everyone the true face of the modern Chinese people. A bloodthirsty, overconfident race who will undoubtedly attempt to rule this world by force if necessary. China clearly does not want simple respect, China's idea of respect is subjugation, in other words, recognizing China as a higher power as a vassal state.

China as to act like Britain? That would have been a blessing if that becomes the case. If anything China will end up acting more like Nazi Germany. Feelings of racial superiority? Check. Historical claims and grievances? Check. What's even more dangerous, is that Nazi Germany is lead by one man or a small group of people, but China's desires for war and expansion lies with its people.

Nationalism of course have always existed. To a certain point it may help with a country's cohesion. But through education and media that's constantly positively reinforcing it, a strongly nationalistic country can only bring it and its neighbors to ruins of war. Chinese people are behaving more like ants than humans, and that is dangerous. They they can only follow orders from their country and die for their country as if their life have no other meaning other than to serve their country. When a people can so easily give up their lives for their country, it spells bad news for everyone else.

FinancialWar said:

I find it extremely funny that you're accusing me of boosting my self-esteem with the rise of China when you're the only who view China's rise as some sort of threat, it shows that you are the only who's insecure.

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No, you need a reading lesson. I don't think China will invade its neighbours (as per my first post in this thread, I think it would be a stupid action). The people of Okinawa view China as a threat. I reported what I repeatedly heard there. That is not my opinion.

I know you're insecure, since you have to defend every little thing about China. Start a thread about Canada, and see if I am compelled to defend everything about my home country. I won't, because it's ridiculous to defend everything about your home country.

I really think if you were happier in your personal life, you wouldn't be so pric kly here, much less take so much pride in justifying every thing China does. My opinion. I'm free to have it. This forum is not China after all, and I won't be sent to a labour camp for a dissenting opinion. It's not really a personal attack. It's an experience that people who resort to nationalism and racism tend to be missing something in their own lives, either emotionally, intellectually, or physically. I don't think you're missing something intellectually, so it has to be the emotional or physical. I wish you luck finding your happiness. Maybe I'm wrong, and the Chinese people are superior and the government is infallible as you perpetually imply.

so you're saying that people who are proud of their country or where they come from have personally issues? That's a lot of people with issues.

And no I do not defend China blindly, but this thread was started out as your typical China bashing thread here on JREF. Communist CHina the big bad bully, Japan the innocent pacifist getting bullied.

FinancialWar said:

so you're saying that people who are proud of their country or where they come from have personally issues? That's a lot of people with issues.

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In no way is that true. I am proud of Canada. It is a place where a poor Chinese family can come and in one generation, be wealthy. That is not true in most countries (my friend in Canada came to the country on a boat from China, and after growing up with seven people in a one bedroom apartment, all five children became successful homeowners. That's awesome, and not unusual in Canada. And I hope Olivia Chow is the next mayor of Toronto. Few cities would elect a mayor not of the majority ethnicity, but she is the best qualified person, so she has a real chance.). I think Canada is one of the few countries where being a minority isn't a serious detractor to success. I'm proud of Canada. But when Canada does terrible things, such as the extreme abuse of the environment going on right now, I am happy to critique it.

I have never said being proud of your country means a person has personality issues. Can you quote the post where I said that? I think nationalistically justifying every action of your home country signals personal issues. I really really do. But liking your home country doesn't.

And no I do not defend China blindly, but this thread was started out as your typical China bashing thread here on JREF. Communist CHina the big bad bully, Japan the innocent pacifist getting bullied.

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Really? China bashing? Discussing things is bashing? Learn to separate yourself from your home country, get your own life. Japan has been an utter pacifist for 70 years. China pushes Japan all the time. You dislike that narrative? Show evidence to the contrary. Do it, and we all will listen to you.

It's hard to say if you truly blindly defend China, but you certainly pronounce it's rightness over and over and over and over, so it's hard to tell the difference. Start a thread titled "What needs to be changed in China" and maybe you will get some credit as a human person, and not a person blindly aligned to their home country. Up to now you've done nothing to make any JREF reader think you are capable of independent thought. You are China first, and everyone else second. It's sad, and I dismiss you the same way I dismiss America-first people, and Japan-first people. They're all holding civilisation back from the amazing life we could be having.

I couldn't concur more with ND's last few statements.

China's politics are nationalist and "race-based" (to avoid the term racist), both phenomena of 19th-century imperialism. Until Chinese reach the 21st century socially and politically other nations, in particular China's neighbours, will remain highly sceptical and wary of its intentions and actions: it seems like a sumo wrestler with the mindset of a child.

Personally, I have a lot of respect for and interest in Chinese culture and history and I would love to see more related threads in our China section. However, to blindly label criticism of China's politics "JREF-typical China bashing" is outright nonsense!

I too cannot understand how individuals define themselves through race or nation (and I wish I could add "as a European"), but I'm confident that humankind will one distant day be mature enough to overcome such compartmentalization.

F War, I don't like becoming personal in my comments but feel I have to state what I honestly think in this case!

I find your racism (yes, that's what it is) and National supremicist tendencies very unsettling.

This arrogance, lack of respect for non Chinese people and awful, blind hatred casts shame on the country that you obviously adore.

I've noticed that your posts often insult other Nationalities and cultures for no cause and I suspect you are just a sour, nasty person who just happens to be of Chinese ancestry.

I am friends with, have worked with and met many, many Chinese people over the years and NONE of them are remotely like you.

This simple fact leaves me with some comfort that you and your ilk are in the great minority in China and even if the Chinese government continue to provoke and exaggerate tensions it will not escalate beyond words and rhetoric.

I probably won't comment any further on what you say on this forum as I know it would be a wate of time and I have better things to do with it !

Wow, did you just call me a racist. Since you're in Australia too, be prepared to lawyer up. You have a defamation case coming your way.

FinancialWar said:

Wow, did you just call me a racist. Since you're in Australia too, be prepared to lawyer up. You have a defamation case coming your way.

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"I'm not racist, I have a lawyer!"

You have convinced me you're a happy, balanced man, Mr. War

FinancialWar said:

Wow, did you just call me a racist. Since you're in Australia too, be prepared to lawyer up. You have a defamation case coming your way.

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You were not so thin-skinned and sensitive when leashing out at other nationalities. While completely within the expected parameters of your behavioral patterns, we do not tolerate legal threats - how frivolous and non-sensical they might be - against other members. Time out for you, young man, and not your first.

Okay, well I wasn't going to bite but since the bait is so delicious.

By 'provoking' China do you mean something like attempting to block a Philippine government vessel from delivering food, fresh water and troops in it's own territory? I'd call that rather provocative. The irony is wild .


Philippine ship dodges China blockade to reach South China Sea outpost | Reuters

China's making up for lost time with its South Seas claims.

I'm not going to get into politics again.

I pray for peace between the two Asian nations.