- 24 Jun 2012
- 232
- 31
The world as we know it is changing. For those of you who don't follow the topic of Global Strategic Security and Geo-politics as avidly as I do I shall give you a brief executive overview of the 4 possible states the world will be in, in the near future.
There will be in total 2 differences.
1. the world will either have nation states or NGO's (non government organisations) as the primary power holder
2. The world (especially in terms of power blocks) will either be fragmented, whith each looking after number one or consolidated with large scale cooperation across international borders.
So the options play out as.
1. A fragmented world with nation states and power blocks holding the majority of power. (top left)
2. A Consolidated world, with Nation states acting as power blocks holding the majority of power, A larger role and power base for the UN, AN, EU and alliances such as NATO. (top right)
3. A fragmented world with NGO's holding the majority of power (bottom left)
4. A consolidated world with large scale multinational interlinked NGO's holding the base of power. (bottom right)
In each of these futures the Role of the USA and the power along side the political and strategic force projection of the USA is going to be severely lessened. While (in terms of nation states) The USA will still hold the biggest stick, It will no longer have Force Majority as it does today.
To give you an idea of how powerful the USA is at the moment, there is a saying in strategic circles, that if the whole world got together and started a (non nuclear) war on the USA, the USA would probably win.
This is rapidly coming to an end. As other countries, especially those in "opposing blocks" build up both defence capabilities and most worryingly for the US force projection capabilities.
In a word. Things will most definitely not carry on as they have for the last 60 years.
So where does this change put Japan.
And how is Japan going to cope with this new world.
firstly i think it might be a good starting point to look at the relationship between Japan and the USA.
As it currently stands Japan is a Major ally of the USA.
This is of course for a single reason.
It is currently in America's best interests to maintain it's alliance with Japan, for both strategic and economic reasons.
After all most of the food that the Japanese eat is farmed in the USA.
So the first Question one asks.
In the future is there an outcome that will negate the positive reasons for this close alliance. and thus result in a dissolution of Japan's defense guarantee.
So what would be the point where the USA will no longer support Japan.
If the Japanese Economy tanks (which unless something very drastic is done to address the population crisis it most certainly will)
And China's economy continues to grow (along with it's defence and force projection capabilities) would there be a situation where in order to placate China, the US pulls out of Okinawa ?
Perhaps in return for better trade agreements, and in the interests of an all round global strategic rethink which is on the cards and is something all serious power nations will be doing shortly (many have already started)
Or could it be that a savvy Japanese Government decides to align itself with China - pro actively?
After all the Japanese are using Iranian oil despite the fact that this goes against USA wishes.
In a world where Nation States and power blocks hold significant is there any way that Japan can seriously resist the Indo-China power block?
The answer in short is NO.
the question is how will Japan and it's people react to this change?
would it be more isolationism?
With the antagonistic nationalist pandering policies and actions of Japanese governments so far, the bargaining position for intergration as an equal partner in the RUS-ASIA power block is ever weakening. And the weaker the economy of Japan the weaker that position becomes.
from a Strategic position.
A future force subjigation of Japan by a RUS-INDO-CHINA power block with China taking the lead is not out of the question.
Remember it's not about IF the USA can defend Japan, It's about WILL the USA defend Japan.
It's not about war, it's about force politics.
For example China places for whatever reason a trade blockade on Japan, It then chooses to use it's armed forces to enforce that blockade. The result would be a Nation on it's knees in months if not weeks. Would the US use force to break this Blockade?
Would a future USA which is more then likely to be isolationist in terms of politics really want to see American citizens dying in American cities because a trade dispute in Asia (where there is no oil) got a little out of hand?
The answer is of course NO.
So, in the face of this future outcome what is Japan doing?
(and to avoid people **** picking these facts with pointless and ignorant derails, lets just treat the above as a "hypothetical situation" eh)
What can Japan do?
What should Japan do?
Would a re-alignment with China not serve Japan and it's people for the best?
(I've realized there is quite a bit here, So I will come back to options 3&4 NGO holding power a little later)
There will be in total 2 differences.
1. the world will either have nation states or NGO's (non government organisations) as the primary power holder
2. The world (especially in terms of power blocks) will either be fragmented, whith each looking after number one or consolidated with large scale cooperation across international borders.
So the options play out as.
1. A fragmented world with nation states and power blocks holding the majority of power. (top left)
2. A Consolidated world, with Nation states acting as power blocks holding the majority of power, A larger role and power base for the UN, AN, EU and alliances such as NATO. (top right)
3. A fragmented world with NGO's holding the majority of power (bottom left)
4. A consolidated world with large scale multinational interlinked NGO's holding the base of power. (bottom right)
In each of these futures the Role of the USA and the power along side the political and strategic force projection of the USA is going to be severely lessened. While (in terms of nation states) The USA will still hold the biggest stick, It will no longer have Force Majority as it does today.
To give you an idea of how powerful the USA is at the moment, there is a saying in strategic circles, that if the whole world got together and started a (non nuclear) war on the USA, the USA would probably win.
This is rapidly coming to an end. As other countries, especially those in "opposing blocks" build up both defence capabilities and most worryingly for the US force projection capabilities.
In a word. Things will most definitely not carry on as they have for the last 60 years.
So where does this change put Japan.
And how is Japan going to cope with this new world.
firstly i think it might be a good starting point to look at the relationship between Japan and the USA.
As it currently stands Japan is a Major ally of the USA.
This is of course for a single reason.
It is currently in America's best interests to maintain it's alliance with Japan, for both strategic and economic reasons.
After all most of the food that the Japanese eat is farmed in the USA.
So the first Question one asks.
In the future is there an outcome that will negate the positive reasons for this close alliance. and thus result in a dissolution of Japan's defense guarantee.
So what would be the point where the USA will no longer support Japan.
If the Japanese Economy tanks (which unless something very drastic is done to address the population crisis it most certainly will)
And China's economy continues to grow (along with it's defence and force projection capabilities) would there be a situation where in order to placate China, the US pulls out of Okinawa ?
Perhaps in return for better trade agreements, and in the interests of an all round global strategic rethink which is on the cards and is something all serious power nations will be doing shortly (many have already started)
Or could it be that a savvy Japanese Government decides to align itself with China - pro actively?
After all the Japanese are using Iranian oil despite the fact that this goes against USA wishes.
In a world where Nation States and power blocks hold significant is there any way that Japan can seriously resist the Indo-China power block?
The answer in short is NO.
the question is how will Japan and it's people react to this change?
would it be more isolationism?
With the antagonistic nationalist pandering policies and actions of Japanese governments so far, the bargaining position for intergration as an equal partner in the RUS-ASIA power block is ever weakening. And the weaker the economy of Japan the weaker that position becomes.
from a Strategic position.
A future force subjigation of Japan by a RUS-INDO-CHINA power block with China taking the lead is not out of the question.
Remember it's not about IF the USA can defend Japan, It's about WILL the USA defend Japan.
It's not about war, it's about force politics.
For example China places for whatever reason a trade blockade on Japan, It then chooses to use it's armed forces to enforce that blockade. The result would be a Nation on it's knees in months if not weeks. Would the US use force to break this Blockade?
Would a future USA which is more then likely to be isolationist in terms of politics really want to see American citizens dying in American cities because a trade dispute in Asia (where there is no oil) got a little out of hand?
The answer is of course NO.
So, in the face of this future outcome what is Japan doing?
(and to avoid people **** picking these facts with pointless and ignorant derails, lets just treat the above as a "hypothetical situation" eh)
What can Japan do?
What should Japan do?
Would a re-alignment with China not serve Japan and it's people for the best?
(I've realized there is quite a bit here, So I will come back to options 3&4 NGO holding power a little later)
