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Is US entering Japan's nightmare?

Latest news on the mortgage mess


Thursday July 10, 8:58 am ET

(Reuters) - Mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) are "insolvent" and may need a U.S. government bailout, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole was quoted as saying in an interview with Bloomberg.

Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News
 
Fannie and Freddie are down another 20% today. When you speak of a "bailout" it it will be you and I and your children and grandchildren that will be paying for it with increased taxes. They WILL GO UNDER which will further erode the economy of the US and the further downsizing of the American middle class. 80% of US jobs today pay under $11/hr
 
There was a separate news on Bank of America might need cash injection from the Feds.

Both major domestic US automakers Ford and GM now trade at multi-year lows.

F @ below $5
GM @ below $10

Over 2 decades ago,Chrysler stock crashed to $2 a share then came the government bail-out package.
 
But I wonder, was it truly a "nightmare for Japan? Japan allowed deflation to take hold and prices remained stable for 20 years even though the housing prices and the stock market never even came close to the highs of back then. The US will refuse and fight tooth and nail against deflation taking hold in the US as it did in Japan.

The only "nightmare" I saw was that Japan further came under the thumb of the international bankers/corporations and allowed their currency to become the carry trade currency that the world has used and profited by to this very day. They also allowed the postal savings system to become public, thereby eroding the security of that private system and putting it into the hands of international corporations. In other words, the savings of the Japanese people, via the postal system, became the property of international bankers to use a they wish and which the Japanese people could lose all or part of it.

It saddens me that Japan has become such a puppet of the international corporations and financial institutions in that, like the slaves of the past in the US, when they say, "Jump!", Japan says, "How high masser?"

But then again, Japan is under the false, naive assumption that when it comes time for the Asian Union to be formed and implimented, they wrongly believe that they will be at the head of it when, in reality, it will be China who will be in charge. For this naivety, Japan will pay dearly.

If you find this hard to believe, the former governer of the Bank of Japan was a former executive of Goldman-Sachs, Japan. Henry Paulson, the head of the Treasury Dept of the US was a former Goldman-Sachs CEO as was the former heads of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

Anyone see a thread here? Do a little research and the truth will set you free!
 
America's finance industry is in dire straits.

The ' housing bubble " gradually unravels into a full-blown financial crisis in America.



Freddie & Fannie shares plummet premarket


Friday July 11, 8:05 am ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Freddie Mac dropped 35 percent and shares of Fannie Mae tumbled 27 percent in premarket trading Friday as Wall Street continued to worry about the health of the mortgage companies and the potential for a government takeover.

Source: Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News



Government mulls Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac takeover: report


Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:02am EDT

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The U.S. government is considering taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if their funding problems worsen, the New York Times said on Friday, causing shares of the mortgage finance companies to plunge.

Fannie and Freddie are government-sponsored entities generally viewed as having the implicit backing of Washington, and considered the last bastions of support for a U.S. housing market in its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Source: Fannie, Freddie say they have plenty of capital
 



Jul.11 8:14 AM ET

Dow 9,500 and Waiting for Capitulation

Posted By:Allen Wastler
Topics:Stock Market


It came from Ben Lichtenstein, president of TradersAudio.com, on "Squawk Box" this morning. I listen to it on my satellite radio as I drive in. He suggested if the Dow trips through 11,000 or lower, then 9,500 is possibility too.

But I think in the near future we definitely will. And how those hold up is really going to determine what we see at the lower levels, about 10,000 (or) 10,500 right now. If those give way look out, we're talking about 9,500. And I know people really kind of laugh at that number when I throw it out there, but it's realistic."

Source: Dow 9,500 and Waiting for Capitulation
 
Try telling them that you think it will fall to possibly 7,500 or lower as that is where I believe it will be within a year or so.

Just this morning, as you already know, Fannie and Freddie, the two largest mortgage institutions have plunged more than 50% in 35 min of trading! "Hanky Panky" Paulson (former CEO of Goldman Sachs! wink wink) will speak today concerning these two and I believe it will be a bailout at the expense of the US taxpayer or the Chinese or Middle Eastern Soverign Wealth Funds.

Remember, we still have the credit crisis looming after this which will further bring the market down along with the dollar. If one is wise, one would get out of the US$ and invest in yen, swiss francs, Australian Dollars, Brazilian Real, Chinese Renimbi or the Euro as they will all increase against the $ as they have done this year to date. Also Gold and Silver will be a good investment and have been soaring as of late.

As I mentioned in another post, keep an eye on Lehman Brothers, Citibank, and Merrill Lynch as one of them, or all at one time or another, will fail I believe as people do not have any confidence left anymore and they have to much of the bad mortgages on their books as well as bad credit that wii raise it head next.

America's nightmare will be far, far worse than what Japan experienced.
 
Dow down now over 238 points, lowest in more than 2 years; oil at record high, and Freddie and Fannie down more than 60%.

Yen has gained almost 2 yen and the Euro near it's record high of 1.60/$. Gold and silver soaring!

I think that today, 711, could be Wall Streets 911. Still too early to tell though.

Does anyone actually believe the US will come out of this unscathed and the US economy and US$ not torn to shreds? Although it may be too early yet this year, I still think we will hear talk of a new currency and union to save the USA.
 
Astroboy said:
But in fact, it was Global Casino Economy.
Click to expand...

Considering the latest development of credit crunch across the world, it is likely that my commnet was wrong ... and the fact is worse than Japan's nightmare.

Chairman of HSBC (also Chairman of British Bankers' Association) says .... "Banks need to return to more basic business plans as the model based on the excessive leverage of recent years is "bankrupt".

"The huge build up of leverage in the system over the last five years where profit depended on high and ever increasing leverage, that model is gone, and that model is gone because it is bankrupt" Green said at a British Bankers' Association conference. "This isn't just the end of a bubble, it's the end of the business model," he added.
HSBC says excessive bank leverage model "bankrupt"

He understands that Anglo-American-led global capitalism has fallen.
 
EU is entering Japan's nightmare. Welcome to recession club!


Japan is always sluggish. So recession is not novelty to us.
Don't worry. You can get used to it soon.
 

funny how they say the Fed and US government has to bail them out, when actually what they really mean is the US taxpayer has to bail out fannie, freddy, bear, the US government, AND themselves out! while repaying their debt to fannie, feeding their families, and working an $9 dollar an hour job!

Ain't going to happen. These people are tapped out.

The US government secures the 9 trillion US dollars they owe internationally, with what, or how, THAT is the question everyone is starting to ask here.

What do they have up as collateral? Our property?

When you stop trading product for product, and start trading product for unbacked, unsecured paper...something bad is going to happen.

Will Japan save and help the US through this crisis, as the US helped it?
 
Marilyn Elam said:
Will Japan save and help the US through this crisis, as the US helped it?
Click to expand...

IF you believe USA or any other country helped Japan when it when Japan faced serious credit crunch, please let us know the case. Japan solved the problem by itself.

Contrary, when Japan was troubled, USA told that Japanese capitalism is far behind USA, Japanese banking sector should be more transparent, and do not postpone dealing with bad-loan problem.

SO.... What USA should do is What USA told us before. Don't rely on Japan.
 
Another bad news from USA .... 2 Failed Bank Information FDIC: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

1. First National Bank of Nevada, Reno, NV
2. First Heritage Bank, N.A., Newport Beach, CA

making total number of failed banks to SEVEN with regard to sub-prime related failure of US financial institutions. US economy has continued to take the same path as the Japanese bubble burst.
 
Good news from USA.


I remember that the Japanese government had decided to inject capital to "Jyusen" (Japan's housing-loan specialist banks) in 1995 in order to maintain Japanese banking system, which struggled with bad loan problems after bubble economy burst in early 90s. Needless to say, Japanese taxpayers had to bear the cost.

Assuming that US economy follows Japan's path, 2-5 large US financial institutions will disappear over the next few years. Plus hundreds of enterprises will go bankrupt because of credit crunch - banks' reluctance to lend money to corporations.

I think that US economy is now reaching half-way mark, but not passed yet.
 
Bad news from IMF


This means that US house price crash will not stop soon, but continue, and no sign of recovery about subprime loan mess. US economy falls into the same rut as Japan.

GOOD Luck.
 
Well lets have a small dose of reality here: the United States market would need losses three times as large to meet what happened. While US prices have dropped 15% already, and probably will hit 20 according to the IMF, Japanese prices dropped 60% over a space of a decade.

Moreover the timing of what has happened is completely different. "Japan's Mess" really was an avoidance for over a decade of what is going on right now in the United States. Japanese banks refused to acknowledge that much of the collateral their loans were based on were in effect worthless. You had a "bad loans crisis" which stalked the banking sector for much of the decade. Only in 1997 was preliminary steps taken by the Ministry of Finance, and It still took another five years for it to correct itself. Only in the Japanese economy could such a state of affairs exist.

The United States is the complete opposite. The loans crisis is exactly what the painful situation the Japanese tried to avoid for so long. Banks and other companies have immediately sought to write down the bad loans and move themselves back into a firmer financial position.

Finally there is significant difference in other areas of the economy. For much of the 1990s, consumer spending fell flat in Japan, and deflation was the major worry. Interest rates were at near zero to encourage spending, while the high Yen preventing a major increase in exports. Today the US economy is facing stagflation, like in the 1970s, due to high commodities prices. Unlike Japan however, it has a low dollar, which allows it to increase exports (which has been occurring but has been overshadowed by high oil prices, which has offset much of these gains.)

So they aren't the same at all.
 
noyhauser said:
So they aren't the same at all.
Click to expand...

Good understanding.

But Key is "continuously declining house price". When house price continues to fall, the bad loan will continue to increase. I remember that US economists urged Japan to dispose bad loan asap, but the reality was that bad loan appreared one after another as house price continued to fall.

So, unless US house price stop to fall or begin to go up again, US subprime mess become bigger & bigger. That's it. And unless many US citizens begin to purchase house on cash now, US house price fall never stop.....

This means that US economy take the same path as Japanese financial crisis. There is no instant magic in the financial business.
 

As I said, until house price recovery, US subprime mess will not stop as new bad loans come up one after another.... It is not a question of "prompt compliance" or not, but a question of when house price decline will stop to fall. Probably nobody know. Until early August 2008, US economy follows exactly the same path Japan took, I think.
 
Last edited:
There was some talk earlier about America being a debtor nation, Japan being a creditor nation, and some more talk about how America might be in worse shape because of the sheer size of the debt. I am surprised no one commented on this earlier, because both of these statements are completely wrong.

The US's public debt is 65% of GDP. Sizable to be sure, but not much different than most countries. The economy itself is just much larger.

Japan, on the other hand, has one of the biggest public debt's of any industrialized country in the world, hovering at around 176% of GDP.

Perception is a bit different from reality here.
 

june26th 2006
Ministry of Finance of japan anounced that japan's debt became $8trillion in 2005.
it is debt that is $60,000/preson in japan(GDP $5trillion, 156%debt/GDP)
it seems a big bloblem for japanese bacause it is so much debt.
everybody said " japan is going to ruin"
however japan is still getting better condition
in USA GDP $13 trillion, debt is ﾂ??30 billionin a year
6.4% debt/GDP in a year.
it means it takes 15 years until 100%

If I compare with USA, japanese debt is too big.
and everybody is worry about that.

However in case of japan , all creditor of japan's debt is the japanese citizen.
there is no foreign creditor at all.
50% crediter of USA's debt is foreigner.

the japanese ppl's financial asset is $13 trillion.
it means a limit of japan's debt is $13 trillion.
that is ,japan's debt is still little

An increase in the debt of the United States is limited to an increase in the
rating to another country.
that is , incresing of net worth(total assets) in a year
american net worth is incersing $3 trillion in a year since 1955
so i can say ﾂ??30 billionin is little.

recentry ,0 interest rates was ended.
japan's interest payment is increased.
japanese citizen can get more interest payment
incresing of USA's debt means increasing of japan's net worth because japan is creditor of USA
Japan also has increased net worth several times the increase rate of the debt of the country every year.
even now japanese citizen is richest in the world.
If the debt of the country of japan becomes $13 trillion, the people in
Japan monopolize money in the world.
Inside and outside net worth of Japan will become threats in the world.

the truth is.......
As for the child in Japan, it can be a property person of 6.48 million yen
(creditor) at the same time as giving birth.
 

I think US subprime mess has nothing to do with US goverment debt.
US house price crash => US subprime mess => US & world credit crunch => failure of financial institutions => failure of ordinary business => more unemployment => sluggish economy ......
 
The Power of De

Novel-prized economist PAUL KRUGMAN telling .... US economy is following the Japanese path.
Opinion | The Power of De (Published 2008)

We've come a long way from the days when Alan Greenspan declared a national housing bubble ﾂ"most unlikely.ﾂ" There was indeed a bubble, and since it popped two years ago home prices have fallen faster than they did during the Great Depression.
Falling home prices, in turn, have led to the much-feared phenomenon of ﾂ"debt deflation.ﾂ" Yes, deflation: prices are going up at the checkout counter, but the prices of assets, which are what matter for balance sheets, are dropping fast.

Fannie and Freddie had to be rescued — otherwise debt deflation would have gotten much worse. Indeed, their financial troubles have already caused problems for would-be home buyers: mortgage rates are up sharply since earlier this year. With the federal takeover, which removes the pressure on the lenders' balance sheets, we should see mortgage rates drop again — which is definitely good news.

The current U.S. financial crisis bears a strong resemblance to the crisis that hit Japan at the end of the 1980s, and led to a decade-long slump that worried many American economists, including both Mr. Bernanke and yours truly. We wondered whether the same thing could take place here — and economists at the Fed devised strategies that were supposed to prevent that from happening. Above all, the response to a Japan-type financial crisis was supposed to involve a very aggressive combination of interest-rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, designed to prevent the crisis from spilling over into a major slump in the real economy.

When the current crisis hit, Mr. Bernanke was indeed very aggressive about cutting interest rates and pushing funds into the private sector. But despite his cuts, credit became tighter, not easier. And the fiscal stimulus was both too small and poorly targeted, largely because the Bush administration refused to consider any measure that couldn't be labeled a tax cut.
As a result, as I suggested, the effort to contain the financial crisis seems to be failing. Asset prices are still falling, losses are still mounting, and the unemployment rate has just hit a five-year high. With each passing month, America is looking more and more Japanese.

So.... we are still friend, arn't we?
 
Welcome to the USSA (United Socialist States of America)

Now that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest suppliers of mortgages in the US, have been taken over, and nationalized, by the US government, over 90% of mortgages for US purchasers of homes in the future will now have to be approved by the US government!

The banks will be saved and their fradulant loans will be reimbursed, the stockholders will lose everything as fannie's shares are now going for $0.83 and the American people will pay for it through their taxes for many years to come. Some say it is $1 Trillion while others say it is close to $3Trillion. Foreigner countries, including Japan hold a total of about $1 Trillion of these bonds. Therefore, to stem the sell-off of US treasuries by foreign countries and the bankruptcy of the USA, the US government had no choice but to bail them out and the US taxpayer will get to pay for it.

Therefore, if you desire to purchase a home in the future, the US government will have to approve you based on your credit rating. Many people will not be receiving mortgages.

And this is just the beginning of the end of the USofA. How long will it before the major car companies go begging the government for a bailout and then they too will be nationalized? Then you will need government approval to buy a car!

Then, next will come the airlines! They too will come with hands out begging for relief and they too will be nationalized! Then you will need government approval to fly!

The list can go on and on.

Does anyone see a pattern of socialism or corporate facism here? or am I just being paranoid?

This is bad, very bad and spells the beginning of the end of free market capitalism in the US. No longer can the US shake a finger at Venezuela or any other country that decides to nationalize major corporations and call them socialist because they just did the same thing.

The government says it will be only for a short time, but does anyone even think for a moment that that is true? When has the government ever given up something they control?

Somehow I feel the average American will not even care or even understand just what has happened to their country and will never know what hit them. Exactly as planned.
 
OK, let's take a look at how the US got into this crisis and it is nowhere near as bad as Japan's "nightmare" which is tame by comparison as, I've mentioned before, Japan is a creditor nation and a nation of savers while the US is just the opposite with negative savings. The following is compiled from various news sources and newsletters:

If you're still looking for the cause of the stock market's decline, consider the real estate market. From its peak in June 2006, to June 2008, two years later, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that the median price of a house has dropped from about $226,000 to about $180,000. That's roughly a 20% loss in nominal value. But that does not take into account inflation, which has run at about 11% on average over that period in real percentage terms, as opposed to official percentage terms which we all know are totally bogus. So that means, in terms of 2006 purchasing power, that $180,000 can only purchase what $143,000 could purchase in 2006, and the total loss in real estate purchasing power value, ala 2006 dollars, has been almost 37%! You don't hear that from the fane-stream media!

Since the total value of the real estate market in 2006, based on Fed figures, was $19.8 trillion, we have a total loss of real estate purchasing power over two years of roughly seven and a quarter trillion dollars, or if you prefer, $7,250,000,000,000!

That's over half of our freaking GDP as estimated for our current fiscal year!!! And, we are only halfway to the bottom of this crisis.

The resets on the mortgage market for subprime mortgages will persist until the end of next June. Resets on ALT-A loans will carry on for two more years and Option ARM "pick and pay loans" will affect the market for the next 3-1/2 years. Late payments and defaults on the latter are already running as high as 24%. The potential average payment increase on resets was 63%. In cash terms this amounted to a loan average of $1,053 extra due each month. The payment shock, declining home prices and restricted ability of mortgage credit leaves most Option ARM borrowers unwilling to continue paying their mortgage.

The ARM market has had the highest proportion of borrowers with limited proof of income at more than 80% of loans. This has increased the likelihood of default. This, needless to say, increases the likelihood of default. This was due to so-called NINJA loans (No Income, No Job, No Assets) as all that was needed was a decent credit score and no proof of income an/or job. Hard to believe, but it is true as the giovernment did not want to let on that a recession was in place. Therefore, these loans were given to give the false impression that the US economy was strong and robust. Not the chickens have come home to roost!

There are more than $200 billion outstanding Option ARM's that will not have to be reset until after 2010, and is the bulk of the problem. Many are facing a limit on negative amortization, typically between 110% and 125% of the original loan amount.

And, from the Mortgage Bankers Association:

"Foreclosures accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three decades during the second quarter as interest rates increased and home values fell, prompting more Americans to walk away from homes they couldn't refinance or sell.

"New foreclosures increased to 1.19 percent, rising above 1 percent for the first time in the survey's 29 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The total inventory of homes in foreclosure reached 2.75 percent, almost tripling since the five-year housing boom ended in 2005. The share of loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.41 percent of all mortgages, an all-time high, from 6.35 percent in the first quarter.

"Tumbling home prices are making it difficult for even the most creditworthy owners with adjustable-rate mortgages to sell or get a new loan as their financing costs rise, said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist. Prime ARMs accounted for 23 percent of new foreclosures and subprime ARMs were 36 percent, he said.

"``People chose the lowest payment option to get into some of the very expensive housing markets and now that prices are coming way down, they can't sell and they can't afford the higher payments,'' Brinkmann said in an interview."

Nine percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June.

The percentage of loans at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure was up from 8.1% in the 1st quarter.

New foreclosures were concentrated in eight states: Florida, Nevada, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio.

Delinquencies on subprime ARMs declined and will do so until next July. More than 20% of subprime ARMs are still in default. That is off 1% from the first quarter.

More than 10% of prime ARMs are delinquent or in foreclosure, that portion, 11.3%, was up from 9.7% in the first quarter and is expected to continue to rise as more homeowners see their monthly payments spike.

Sorry, but I believe the US will be in a far worse situation than Japan faced and forced me to leave. With no savings and many walking away from their mortgages and obligations, the US economy will suffer greatly.

This is just the beginning of the end.
 
NINJA loans (No Income, No Job, No Assets) .... I thought it was something Japanese, but not.

Either way, don't be too pessimistic. Pachipro. Life is long. Nobody will be killed by banks even though they fail to repay the morgage.
 
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