Are the Seas really rising? What are the effects on Japan, this Island Country?

[Master of Time]

While on the one hand I often say that people need to be more concious of climate change and, among other things, stop buying new junk and instead fix up what they already have and be satisfied with it, I have to admit, I don't spend all that much time investigating the hard proof that climate change is happening.

Something that recently came up was rising seas, and I have seen evidence of it in some very certain places, but I have also heard evidence debunking those claims in those very certain places. One would think that globally people would be moving away from shores in unprecendented numbers with unprecedented speed. Have I missed something?

Meanwhile, so many of us are here in Japan, which is littered with inhabited islands. But I don't watch Japanese TV or read Japanese papers. Is this even talked about in the Japanese media? Does anyone have any personal evidence or experience regarding rising sea levels in Japan?

Or have I been sold a load of bunk?

 

[Grandpa Frank]

Here in Maine I live about 200 yards from the ocean and about 14 feet above high tide. Been here about 35 years and have not seen any rise at all. I don't have flood insurance and don't plan on moving. In my humble opinion , today's scientists report what whoever is paying them to say and fear mongering seems to be a political toy to raise money/taxes. To be truthful , I have a couple life jackets just in case I have to swim for it .

 

[nice gaijin]

I literally just heard a story about this on the radio. Improved accuracy is showing that our projections have actually been far too conservative.

A Space Laser Shows How Catastrophic Sea Level Rise Will Be

Scientists calculate that by 2100, over 400 million people could live in low-lying, at-risk areas—and that's a conservative estimate.

www.wired.com

Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise - Nature Communications

The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population...

www.nature.com

Japan's meteorological agency shows an upward trend. Japan Meteorological Agency | Sea level (around Japan)

Is climate change a load of bunk? No, we've been sold upriver by companies that knew the consequences, and decided to put profits over the planet. The best time to address this stuff was 50 years ago when they did the initial studies, the second best time is now. But people will hem and haw and make excuses for maintaining their lifestyles until they become impossible to sustain. By the time you notice the sea levels rising it'll be far too late--it may already be.

 

[Master of Time]

But people will hem and haw and make excuses for maintaining their lifestyles until they become impossible to sustain.

This is absolutely true. Just observing people and listening to them talk proves it. But archeology makes it even clearer.

A trouble is though, this also works for scientists who are capable of bowing to sensationalism or a tweak here or there to keep the grant money coming in.

The best time to address this stuff was 50 years ago when they did the initial studies,

Yes. I also think that it cannot be denied that corporations hid their own findings to protect their profitability. Even so, the accuracy of those findings can be doubted.

By the time you notice the sea levels rising it'll be far too late--it may already be.

I have also subscribed to this conclusion for a long time. That's the trouble. I would expect something really solid by now. Not seeing it is weird. Your first two links are about estimates and predictions. The Wired article has what I can guarantee is a picture of a flood that cannot be 100 percent blamed on global sea level rises. Meanwhile your third shows that sea levels were nearly as high in 1950, went down and are now up again. So why was it so high before?

This is interesting and close to home for Uncle Frank.

Fact check: Plymouth Rock has been moved, not an accurate gauge of sea level rise since 1620

The article says that the sea has risen 1.5 feet since 1620 in that location. Really??? I certianly would expect a lot of dramatic changes in many locations if that were true. Where are they?

They sure are not in Venice! This article says it was dam that saved Venice from flooding. Really??? But now they can't get sea water into the lagoon enough to keep the city in water? What????

Gondolas left stranded as Venice's canals run dry

This is some of the best solid evidence I have seen...but its from 7 years ago! Whats been up since then? Is there no other explanation but global sea rises? Islands can't sink over time? (Of course they can! And they do!)

Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas as climate change hits

Six more islands have large swaths of land, and villages, washed into sea as a result of ‘dramatic impact of climate change’ on the Solomon Islands

www.theguardian.com

I just want to be clear that I am keeping an open mind here, and backing off my previous stance of certainty that this point of climate change was true and forewarning of an impending disaster. But doubt has crept in.

 

[Master of Time]

Look at this at :51



One would think the trees would be where they would focus, not hand drawn lines on a video screen and claim this or that. Those trees look fine and look they have been there for a very long time and certainly don't look flooded out. They are branching into roots exactly where I would expect them to. But what do I know of those type of trees?

But where are the pictures of those times when the houses were where the water is now? Is there really nothing left of those houses? Not even one single support beam???

A sea wall? Sure. That would have been a good idea since ancient times! Tropical storms are real! But such a loose stone wall will need constant maintanence. Its a no brainer. Again...pictures from the past??

 

[Master of Time]

Maybe I should pay more attention to Okinotorishima?

There is a bit in here about rocks eroding and vanishing, but nothing about problems with a sea level rise.

But since the Japanese government is trying to claim it as an EEZ zone point, of course they would be very active in keeping it above water....if it were going under.

Okinotori - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[nice gaijin]

POP QUIZ

1. Without checking first, How much water do you think it takes to make the sea level rise 1 inch, or 1 foot?
2. How much would you say the average sea level has risen since the start of the industrial revolution?
3. If all of the polar ice melted, how much would that change the sea level?
4. Would the ice melting cool down the ocean, or would it warm up because dark sea water absorbs more radiant heat than ice?
5. If you cut down the entire Amazon rainforest, what percentage would the world's oxygen levels decline?
6. If you shrank the earth down to the size of a tennis ball, how smooth or rough would the surface feel?
7. If the planet is "warming," how come we just had a record winter?

Climate change happens in ways that seem extreme or irrational, on a scale we can't readily fathom. This is why it's being so intensely studied all around the world. And the completely overwhelming majority of peer-reviewed science that's been published agrees that it's happening, and it's anthropogenic.

 

[Master of Time]

Having asked some questions that have gone unanswered, I feel very disinclined to take a quiz.

All I can tell you is I never thought any of this was simple and I was inclined to believe what I was told was what the majority of relevant scientists insisted was true.....even after a pretty fair amount of reading on such subjects.

But after probably about 30 years of hearing about climate change with lots of predictions that indicated some certain effects would be pretty obvious by now, I am just not seeing nearly as much as I expected.

That doesn't mean I gave up and switched sides, but I do feel like some points were over-sold, maybe even vastly so.

Regardless, my view that people are over-consuming and corporations are over-producing, and it all needs to slow way, WAAAAAY down has not changed. So, I am still in line with environmentalists because our goals are pretty much the same even if some of our beliefs don't line up.

You aren't ever going to hear me say we need MORE production, mining, cutting, burning, consumption and industrialization, never fear about that. I won't even be saying we need to stay the course on those. No way. Its conservation to the hilt with me. And in that, there lies a way to get people even more doubtful than myself in line....so there is a positive aspect for you.

 

[nice gaijin]

It's crazy how life isn't like a movie, this global disaster is taking too long!

 

[Lothor]

Having asked some questions that have gone unanswered, I feel very disinclined to take a quiz.

All I can tell you is I never thought any of this was simple and I was inclined to believe what I was told was what the majority of relevant scientists insisted was true.....even after a pretty fair amount of reading on such subjects.

But after probably about 30 years of hearing about climate change with lots of predictions that indicated some certain effects would be pretty obvious by now, I am just not seeing nearly as much as I expected.

That doesn't mean I gave up and switched sides, but I do feel like some points were over-sold, maybe even vastly so.

Regardless, my view that people are over-consuming and corporations are over-producing, and it all needs to slow way, WAAAAAY down has not changed. So, I am still in line with environmentalists because our goals are pretty much the same even if some of our beliefs don't line up.

You aren't ever going to hear me say we need MORE production, mining, cutting, burning, consumption and industrialization, never fear about that. I won't even be saying we need to stay the course on those. No way. Its conservation to the hilt with me. And in that, there lies a way to get people even more doubtful than myself in line....so there is a positive aspect for you.

What evidence exactly are you looking for?

See levels are rising and are relatively easily measured. So are average global temperatures, which are also easily measured. Note that with sea levels, it's not just the level itself, it's the combination with extreme weather, such as the storm surge resulting from the very low pressure during a super-strong typhoon.

Then there's all the observational evidence. When I first came to Japan 20 years, the media was full of this new phenomenon called a nettaiya (tropical night) happening in August, where the temperature didn't drop below 25 C overnight. These days they also happen in July and September and go unremarked. Summers in Britain are completely different from how they were when I was a kid. Alpine ski resorts are struggling due to lack of snow. Warm-water fish are appearing far further north than they used to. Whether you look at the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic or the amount that insurance companies are paying each year for weather-related disasters, everything is on the up. The climate is rapidly changing according to every single scientific and anecdotal metric that I've come across, and I find it extraordinary that you can express doubt about such a phenomenon.

 

[Master of Time]

and I find it extraordinary that you can express doubt about such a phenomenon.

Climate change or rising sea levels....because if you look at the thread title, the point I am doubting is sea level rises.

I am not really doubting climate change itself...however...I have begun to question just how much is man-made.

If find it extraordinary that you side stepped my specific reference points of the Solomon Islands, Venice and Okinotorishima and mentioned all new things as if that settles the matter.

What evidence exactly are you looking for?

A decent sized list of places around the world where in the last 50 years they have flooded due to sea level rises. Note that every time a different place is experiencing lower levels of water (like Venice) am going to want probably 3 counter examples.

 

[nice gaijin]

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts

Sea Level Rise Viewer: Visualize community-level impacts from coastal flooding or sea level rise (up to 10 feet above average high tides) at U.S. coastal locations.

coast.noaa.gov

Can't 'See' Sea Level Rise? You're Looking in the Wrong Place - NASA Science

Recently I stayed in a lovely vacation rental at the eastern end of Ocean Isle Beach, a small town on North Carolina’s southern coast not far from Myrtle

climate.nasa.gov

• Do you think people are just lying when they say the coastlines are changing, like the man in the Solomons in your video?
• Do you think Indonesians are moving their capitol for no good reason?
• Or that the Maldives are just making up their own issues?
• Florida is also experiencing more flooding each year, and having a hard time addressing it because their government sees it as a political wedge and is refusing to have an open discussion about climate change, are they just fighting over fake data?
• California alone stands to lose up to 70% of its beaches over the next century. "Cliff retreat" has been coined to describe accelerating erosion of the coastline. Are the "coastal elites" just trying to increase the scarcity of seaside homes by pushing them down a cliff?
• Bangkok is one of the most vulnerable cities to flooding due to sea level rise. Are they just pulling a fast one on us, to say "Come see Bangkok before it's too late!"

Of course not, those questions are ridiculous. Just because the water recedes in some places doesn't negate all the evidence pointing to sea level rise.

My quiz questions were meant to be a fun exercise to illustrate how hard it is to think about these things on a global scale when we're looking through the magnifying lens at one detail at a time; perhaps the reason why you think you're seeing evidence that makes you question the facts. A couple degrees doesn't seem like a whole lot, but that rise in global temperature can lead to unmitigated disaster. A couple feet doesn't seem like a whole lot, but that's an incomprehensible amount of water spread over the entire ocean. There's not enough water on this planet to turn it into Kevin Costner's Waterworld, but we don't need that for it to be disastrous. There's currently about 267 million people living within 2 meters of sea level, and even with zero population growth that number will vastly increase over the coming years.

Consider this: the overall amount of water on the planet is pretty much unchanging, it's just a matter of where and in what form that water is (a function of its temperature). Anthropogenic climate change means mainly that man-made emissions are trapping more heat in the atmosphere which alters the cycles and movement of water. This leads to more frequent, more intense storm systems and other forms of extreme weather. Wet bulb conditions, red tide and algae blooms, altering migratory patterns, mass extinction events, and so on. Sea level rise is an obvious result as more of the solid water melts into liquid, but also as the water moves around the planet due to tides and storms and shifting pressure systems, there will be times when areas will be parched, and others where they're flooding; both are disasters and are a part of the same phenomenon. If you want to see how bad the runaway greenhouse effect can get, look to Venus.

You've got the internet, is it really that hard to find the examples you're looking for? If this is all "bunk," who does this narrative serve, and why would all peer-reviewed science overwhelmingly agree on these observations and models? Why would the fossil fuel industries bury their findings that pointed in the same direction decades ago, and do you think there's an equal and opposite force on the other side pushing the "narrative" of climate change? It seems like you're demanding proof that the disaster is already upon us, which is exactly why I said it's already too late by the time even the skeptics realize what's happening.

This is some real "Don't Look Up" vibes.

 

[Master of Time]

What is with you and your hostility?

You keep coming at me on every subject as if I am your mortal enemy.

I never said sea level rises were not happening and its all a lie. All I did was to start to feel more dubious about it than before and ask questions. And you have gone haywire with pointed questions in response, smartassery, accusations of laziness, and treatment as if I just heard of all this yesterday.

Your desperation and bullying with your opinion on this is not helping. Once again, you are driving me in the opposite direction as I wonder why you feel the need to cram this down my throat. All you gotta do is present facts here. There never was any need to jump my s**t about this because either way, there is not a damn thing I can do about it. Its going to happen, or not, without us.

Could you just calm the hell down and maybe start acting more in accordance with your member name?

You are as welcome to your opinion on this as I am to my agnosticism cause in the end, we aren't changing anything.

 

[Master of Time]

You've got the internet, is it really that hard to find the examples you're looking for?

Yes. I literally have to ask members for their anecdotal evidence if I want it. Things like that are literally what a forum is for. So right in the OP I asked for some.

I am also curious why people believe what they believe, and again, that requires asking as no one has yet been uploaded to the net.

 

[Master of Time]

This is an interesting video on the subject, but it sort of side-steps current specific impacts on specific locations and leans hard on projections for the future.....despite the title....which is a bit annoying.

 

[Master of Time]

Kiribati would seem to be a sort of ground zero for rising seas. But this video within the first few minutes seems to indicate rising seas are not really the problem...not a major problem....yet.

The problem seems to be more, and more serious, storm surges and severe tropical storms caused by climate change. And I am wondering how much erosion from those things is also playing a part, as well as sinking land.

At 3:25 the Climate Commissioner of Kiribati seems to be indicating this its not sea levels at the moment that is their trouble, but flooding by other causes.



So perhaps what I am taking issue with is what I have have seen (in my experience of what news I have consumed) is a focus on sea level rises but for at least some places, that is not what is causing current issues....in some places.

Are some news outlets conflating issues to make it all more consumable? Or are they just getting it wrong?

 

[nice gaijin]

I don't know where you're getting your news, but I haven't heard anyone putting sea level rise as THE major effect to be worried about with climate change; it's one of many, and as the charts in my first links illustrate, the sea doesn't just come up and stay up, but the range moves upward over time and that accelerates erosion and other effects exponentially. Extreme tides and storm surges are part of sea level rise.

Even in your Kiribati video around 4:10 they talk about how "the beach is gone," and at 4:44 - "the water is rising and rising, eventually the land over there will disappear, but we'll stay and float like an island in the water," because they built a flood wall to protect their house.

5:10 - "20 years ago the sea was far away, we were safe back then, even at high tide. The water only reached this far. We used to have a lot of trees, our land was much greener. We had no idea we'd have to live like this one day...

The access road has been flooded for years, the family can only leave their property by boat."

Do you even watch your own videos? how does this not describe rising sea levels?

If I were just hostile, would I compile such a list of resources to point you to the realities we're facing around the world? Did you watch the video I embedded above, or read any of the links I shared? Or did you just get bent out of shape because I'm not acting like your kindergarten teacher?

 

[Master of Time]

Extreme tides and storm surges are part of sea level rise.

I am not quite sure what you want to say here. Of course the tides and surges have risen along with the sea....by centimeters. But if you are using "sea level rise" as a category of climate change, no, I don't think extreme tides and storm surges are a sub-category.

I am pretty sure "sea level rise" is a category of its own. This link does not include them in the definition.

Sea level rise - Understanding Global Change

ugc.berkeley.edu

the range moves upward over time and that accelerates erosion and other effects exponentially.

Yes I heard that in one of the videos somewhere....and frankly....I don't get it. How a sea rise of a few centimeters is going exponentially affect erosion OVER a high tide combined with waves crashing onto beaches is just something I really don't see. Seems like a mouse being said to have an exponential appetite while (cough) ignoring the elephant in the room. Combining their consumption I am still going to be blaming the elephant. But of course there is more. As I said earlier, climate change (rather than rising seas) is causing more and more exterme storm surges and storms, and those would be like a rhino and a hippo as far as erosion goes....uh....currently.

So are you perhaps conflating the current and the future? Because what I have been reading regarding sea levels so often points to the future effects rather than current ones.

If I were just hostile, would I compile such a list of resources to point you to the realities we're facing around the world?

Plausible deniability. And weapons to swing. You are still being hostile, as if I pose some extreme threat to all your climate related ideologies, when all I have done is question the specific area of sea level rise.

I watched the video you linked. Its extremely vague on time and seems to be more about future predictions than current reality of how past predictions played out. My focuse for this thread was not the future. It was about now. But the video you embedded would annoy me regardless for its tense vagueness, which I am sure is intentional, such as using the word "can" rather than a more solid "is", "will" or "is ....ing". Its asking for a whole hell of a lot of blind faith.

Do you even watch your own videos? how does this not describe rising sea levels?

It does in a sense. People speak of flooding as "rising water" and if its sea water they will say rising seas. They will say that when a tsunami comes in....the sea rose. But that was not what I was talking about. I was talking about mean sea level rise, tending more toward a global average.

The current problem in Kiribati seems to be just as I am understanding the Commissioner...that storms and storm surges have caused flooding so frequent that it never has time to recede, NOT that rising seas are a major component.

 

[nice gaijin]

From your own link

Changes in sea level affect various Earth system processes and phenomena, including:

• Displacing human populations and other species due to flooding and also erosion.
• Increasing ground water salinity from coastal flooding, which reduces freshwater quality and availability and decreases soil quality. This, in turn, affects agricultural crops and livestock.
• The distribution of coastal habitats. For example, marshes and swamps protect coastlines by reducing coastal erosion and by promoting sedimentation. If there is space for these habitats migrate inland as sea level rises, this will decrease the vulnerability of coastal regions to sea level rise, especially storm surges.
• Species ranges, as sea level rise affects where organisms live, where they can move, and what other species they interact

The water on the planet is not stationary, it's in constant motion and is being pulled around by the moon, not to mention going through phase changes and driving weather systems.

Talking about even a small amount of sea level rise is not like adding an inch of water to your bathtub. The disaster is not the sea being a tiny bit higher, it's what happens when you add thousands of gigatons of water to that swirling ball of water that envelops the earth. It compounds as you keep adding more water, and when you have a significant portion of the population living in coastal regions, the human cost of dealing with those effects are astronomical.