Environment Japan's carbon tax is one of the lowest in the world

Global warming is one of the most important global issues at the moment and for the foreseeable future. Carbon taxes are one of the main tools to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, essentially by increasing the price of fossil fuels. This both decreases demand for goods and services that produce high emissions and incentivizes making them less carbon-intensive.

Carbon taxes are denominated in U.S. dollars per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent, so they are easy to compare between countries.

Generally more developed countries have higher carbon taxes. One notable exception is Japan. It's carbon tax is currently of $2 per metric ton of CO2 equivalent, which is even less than a majority of developing countries, notably in Latin America. It is between Mexico's and Ukraine's.

Carbon taxes in China are set by the cities/provinces, wait in the US and Canada they are set by the states. Nevertheless it is shocking to see that most Chinese cities have carbon taxes four or five time higher than Japan.

The price range required to meet the Paris Agreement signed by almost every country in the world in 2016, is between $40 and $80. The question is why eight years after signing the agreement Japan is still so far behind for a rich country?

One of the consequences of Japan's low carbon tax is that there is little incentive for energy producers to transition towards low carbon energy. This not surprising therefore to find Japan on a par with the United Emirates for the percentage of low carbon energy (both around 29%). Japan is well behind other developed countries and even behind countries typically associated with high pollution and high carbon emissions like Russia, Pakistan and China.



It's a real shame because Japan is a country with very high potential for renewable energies. It's one of the best countries in the world for a geothermal energy thanks to its numerous volcanoes and hot springs.

It's also one of the best countries in the world for tidal power thanks to its extremely long coastlines and the proximity of most population centres from the sea. At present the country with the highest production of electricity from tidal power is South Korea (another snub at Japan), followed by France the United Kingdom and Canada. The first country to open a tidal power plant was Portugal, which is poorer and less technologically advanced than Japan. The main drawback of tidal power plants is that beaches have to be covered with concrete and the plant infrastructure. But Japanese people don't really care about that as they have already poured concrete over most of their coastline. So why aren't they taking advantage of their natural resources?

These are in my opinion the two best options for Japan to produce clean renewable energy. But the country is of course also very suitable for solar power (it's at the same latitude as the Mediterranean) and wind power (lots of wind along the coastline and plenty of potential for offshore wind farms).

It's doubly ironic that Japan would stick to fossil fuels when it has to import 100% of its fossil fuels and the yen is so low. What's more it's very bad for their international image. After all the Kyoto Protocol, the foundational treaty aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, was hosted by Japan.

I have asked chat GPT what is the potential of electricity generation for geothermal, tidal, wind and solar power in Japan. Here are the answers.

Geothermal

Japan has significant geothermal energy potential due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a region with high volcanic activity. Estimates suggest that Japan has about 23 GW of geothermal energy potential, ranking it among the top countries globally. However, as of now, only a small fraction of this potential is utilized, with installed geothermal capacity at approximately 0.6 GW (600 MW).

How Much Electricity Could Geothermal Cover?

If Japan fully harnessed its geothermal resources:

Theoretical Coverage:

If all 23 GW of potential were developed, geothermal could generate around 200 TWh of electricity annually, assuming an 85% capacity factor typical for geothermal plants.
This could meet 10-15% of Japan's total electricity demand (currently about 950-1000 TWh annually).

Current Contribution:

Geothermal currently accounts for less than 0.3% of Japan's electricity mix, showing significant room for growth.

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Tidal power

The potential of tidal power to cover Japan's electricity needs is limited but significant, depending on the extent of development. While Japan has strong tidal currents in certain areas, the total energy yield from tidal power would likely cover only a modest fraction of its electricity demand.

Estimated Potential:

Japan's theoretical tidal energy potential is estimated at about 10-20 GW of installed capacity, depending on the technology used and sites developed.

Assuming an 85% capacity factor (typical for tidal systems), this would generate around 75-150 TWh of electricity annually.

Electricity Demand Coverage:

Japan's annual electricity demand is approximately 950-1000 TWh.
Tidal power could therefore cover 7-15% of Japan's electricity needs if fully developed.

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Wind power

Japan has significant potential for wind power, especially offshore, due to its extensive coastline, strong winds, and advancing wind power technologies. If fully utilized, wind energy could cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs.

Potential Wind Power Contribution:

• Onshore Wind: Japan's onshore wind power potential is estimated at 100-300 GW, but suitable land is limited due to mountainous terrain and urbanization. Current installed onshore capacity is about 5 GW.
• Offshore Wind: Offshore wind is Japan's greatest opportunity, with an estimated potential of 600-1,000 GW, including both fixed-bottom and floating turbines. This could theoretically generate 2,000-3,000 TWh per year, far exceeding Japan's annual electricity demand of 950-1,000 TWh.

Current Wind Power Contribution:
As of 2023, wind power contributes about 1% of Japan's electricity generation, with 5.3 GW installed (onshore and offshore combined).

Electricity Demand Coverage:

If just 100 GW of offshore wind were developed (10-15% of potential), it could generate about 300 TWh annually, covering 30% of Japan's electricity needs.
Fully exploiting offshore resources could theoretically supply more than 200% of Japan's demand, enabling exports or complete decarbonization.

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Solar power
Japan has significant potential for solar power, and it already plays a crucial role in the country's renewable energy mix. Despite limited land availability, solar power could potentially cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs, particularly through advanced technologies and efficient use of rooftops and underutilized land.

Potential Solar Power Contribution:

• Theoretical Capacity:
  • Estimates suggest Japan's solar power potential ranges between 100-150 GW of installed capacity on available land and rooftops.
  • Assuming an average capacity factor of 13-15% (due to Japan's climate and geography), this could generate approximately 120-200 TWh per year.
• Current Contribution:
  • As of 2023, Japan has about 80 GW of installed solar capacity, generating 90-100 TWh annually, covering 9-10% of the country's electricity demand.

Electricity Demand Coverage:

• If fully developed to its theoretical potential (150 GW), solar power could cover around 15-20% of Japan's annual electricity demand (~950-1,000 TWh).
• With additional innovations like floating solar farms and energy storage, this percentage could increase.

Conclusion, if fully developed Japan has the potential to cover 50% of its electricity demand through geothermal, tidal and solar power and an additional 200% through wind power. So even if it closed all its nuclear plants Japan could produce all its electricity from renewables and become a net exporter of electricity.