Society El País on Japan's demographic collapse

[thomas]

Last week, El País (English edition) published a very well-researched and comprehensive article on Japan's demographic collapse, seen through the eyes of Japan's youth. Although not a day goes by without domestic and foreign media broaching the issue of Japan's greying society, this piece is a captivating read that sheds some light on the concerns and worries of young Japanese.


Synopsis:

El País expanding on Japan's demographic collapse caused by an ageing population and its impact on society. The government projects a significant population decline, posing challenges for pensions, elderly care, and maintaining a young workforce for economic growth: The closure of schools and the increasing number of empty properties highlight the severity of the issue. Japan's conservative society, rooted in traditional values, makes it difficult to address challenges such as gender equality and openness to foreigners. The country's demographic crisis is compounded by geopolitical factors that question Japan's post-World War II pacifist policy.

The article presents personal stories and viewpoints of young people to shed light on the challenges faced by Japan. Hikari Yurugi, who deviated from the traditional path, expresses scepticism about the possibility of significant change in her country. Sugii, a young man, desires to move abroad, which is becoming more common among Japanese youth. Akiho Kobokayama, a working woman, highlights women's difficulties in the Japanese labour market and the dilemma of balancing career and family. The article also mentions efforts to promote gender equality in education. Anna Kurokawa's experience reveals the persistence of old traditions and work cultures, hindering progress in areas like paternity leave. Rikuto Fukuda expresses the desire for change in Japan's military policy, suggesting a shift in generational values.

Some of them think of moving abroad:

"Young people in Japan aren't very happy," says Sugii, with an uncommon frankness. "Here, you don't feel very free to find your path. We're a bit of a herd. We go with the flow… we act while thinking about what others will think. I don't feel very comfortable with this way of thinking. The weight of tradition is a bit stressful. I'm quite motivated to go live abroad."

Others are frustrated over the lack of social progress:

Yurugi deviated from the standard path, but she didn't reject the traditions of her country. However, she does not doubt that Japan needs a change of direction. When asked if there is a need for a change, she replies emphatically: "Of course! But I'm not confident that it will happen. The leaders are older… I don't think they have any interest in a big change. The press isn't very brave. And the young people seem, to me, to be exhausted. I vote, but most [people of my generation] don't even do that."

Some refuse to comply with social norms and pressure:

Akiho says that many of her friends from Hiroshima are married. Some already have children. On the other hand, none of her friends from the University of Tokyo are married. "I contemplate the option of being happy without marriage and children," she says, indicating a clear cultural shift away from the standard views of past generations.

And a foreign resident's perspective:

The Japanese government has tried to make regulations more flexible in recent years to attract labour, but little progress has been made. In fact, during the years of the pandemic, the number of foreigners dropped. Japan's language, solid cultural roots, strict legislation, and other factors inhibit foreigners' attraction and total integration. "The experience as a student was simple. Difficulties arise when you decide to live here long-term without being married to a local citizen," Pano explains. While Japan is a very organized society, at the same time, the rigid rules and customs can be obstacles for foreigners like Pano. Everything from renting a home to fitting into the country's professional mentality can be challenging. Pano believes that there are some signs of evolution in Japanese society: she thinks that the position of women in the labour market has improved and that there's more open discussion about the scourge of sexual harassment. But she feels that the improvement is happening too slowly. "I think that if [Japan] doesn't make a decisive turn-around very soon, this country will have no future."

A look at Japan’s demographic collapse, through the eyes of its youth

According to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the world’s third-largest economy is on the brink of social dysfunction, which has been brought about by a rapidly-aging population. The stories and opinions of members of the younger generations reveal the challenges that lay ahead for a very...

english.elpais.com

 

[Lothor]

What I find sad is that the current government are trying to do the right things to increase the birth rate, i.e., reduce the huge financial burden of raising children, but these measures should have been introduced two decades ago. Instead, in the 2000s we had politicians describing women as 'baby-making machines' and urging them to do their duty for Japan, and in the 2010s we had Abe, who occasionally made the right noises but was only really interested in concentrating his and the state's power and turning back the clock.

 

[thomas]

The crux of modern democracy: politicians

• whose visions and enthusiasm are highjacked by vested interests and lobbyism.
• whose ambitions do not reach further than the next general elections.
• and particularly in Japan, who cannot relinquish "the olden ways".

PM Kishida's government is one of the more progressive Japanese administrations of the past two decades--not voluntarily but out of economic and demographic necessity. Change comes slowly.

 

[Master of Time]

• and particularly in Japan, who cannot relinquish "the olden ways".

I think its the new old ways that are killing Japan.

The old old ways kept this country populated.

They have ensured that young people have only fleeing contact with the opposite sex, making them horrifically awkward toward eachother.

And there is no consideration at all for how raising the age of consent makes young people extra confused because on top of all their more natural worries and concerns, plus the artificial course of their lives due to excessive homework and club activities, now they also have to consider if its even legal for them to date someone they like....before they even get to know that person.

And they just raised it again, nationally this time, as if it changed anything other than throwing it into the news cycle and people's attention. Was there some spate of abuses I missed somewhere that this will end?

And I would not assume your average 16 year old even understands the law and understands that its okay if they date a 17 year old, or 15 year old. And they had too damn much to worry about already because the geezers running the country have no clue or care for young people's issues....they just want workers, taxpayers and babies.

 

[bentenmusume]

Honestly, the biggest reason for the declining birthrate in Japan is the same reason the birthrate is declining everywhere -- cost of living going up, people working harder and making less (relative to said cost of living), property being hoarded by old money and snapped up by investors to the point that even making good, honest money into your thirties isn't enough to buy a house in Tokyo unless your parents are loaded, no support for either women or men looking to support children, etc. etc. etc.

This problem actually isn't unique to Japan -- look here and you'll see Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, etc. basically tied with Japan and South Korea even quite a bit below.

This isn't just a "Japan problem". This is a "first-world country" problem that at the moment happens to be hitting Japan a bit harder than most.

Again, this isn't to say it's not a major problem for Japan -- it is -- and that Japan's government should be doing way ******* more to fix the issue.

But (as with the other thread on hikikomori) from my point of view, the Western world can just ******* shut up already about "Japan's demographic collapse" and worry about fixing their own ******* ****. If there's a solution out there, it's something for Japan to find for itself, not something they're going to learn by emulating the so-called "enlightened" Western countries that have problems in their own right.

 

[Master of Time]

bentenmusume

despite saying "the reason" you have repeated some very popular notionS, with an "s" about the declining birthrate in Japan.

The trouble with popular notions is that they are usually about saying something that most people can feel good about in some way, and have very little to do with a proper analysis, the hard hitting truth of which is so often very unpopular. Repeating the popular notions increases one's own popularilty, and most people just love to be popular. But as I say, I don't care about popularity, and so I will say very unpopular things. But what I say has come after much thought on the subject, and not anything to do with how many people are going to like what I say.

Perhaps you were being bombastic when you said the birthrate is going down "everywhere", but its important to be clear about what exactly that means as it can be taken in many ways.

In a very general sense, birth rates are down globally. Even by country generally they are down. But they are still well above replacement in many of the poorest countries.....which suggests its not really a matter of money and wealth, which is the bulk of your contentions.

The things I pointed out earlier have a lot to do with urbanization. Urbanization is blamed squarely in this link.

Birthrates are declining globally – here's why it matters | World Economic Forum

Japan is a real horror show of urbanization. Of course, I can also blame a lot of the money issues you point to on urbanization. But your ideas seem to place the blame on greedy businessmen buying up property and keeping wages low, which are of course, very popular notions among the general public because there is no blame on the general public. The general public loves to shift the blame away from themselves.

But what I said blames the general public for moving out of the country. They did not have to do that. They chose to. They chose to because of convenience and perceived status and standard of living. Moving out of the country made raising children not only inconvenient, but bad for the children. And that bad was made worse by the anti-social social norms imparted on them. Of course, even in the country those norms have become popular.

People complain about money and support, but look at their situations. They have a new car, the latest cell phone and they pay high rent for a small living space. They have insane amounts of clothes and new this or that. They don't cook. They throw money at restaurants. Someone who REALLY wanted children would sacrifice all that. Largely, Japanese young people are not.

So there is a double whammy going on here. It began with the urbanization, including moving to more crowded areas. The children who grew up in that already bad situation were foisted with busy work that ignored their social development. And now they are stuck in a city and are too socially backward to even appreciate having a family much less find a partner to create one.

And they don't want to hear it because it means they are mentally screwed up, and are screwing up their own situation more even if they think they do want a family. There is cheap land to be had with old houses on them....perfect for raising a family. They could become farmers or some other low status job that pays the bills. They could go without a whole slew of conveniences. But they won't. They will sit there and blame everyone else for their own unhappiness. And part of the reason is the repetition of the popular feel good notions while no one tells it to them straight.....new junk is not going to deliver long term happiness and that stuff will have to be sacrificed to get the real thing. What makes people happy is friends and family and being social, and that's what everyone needs to do and stop thwarting people's abilty to, especially the kids, with too damn many laws, controls, rules, surveillance, shaming campaigns, busy work, etc.

As for non-Japanese getting their own houses in order, I could not agree more with that. But there you did say something unpopular. They too want to blame others, or point to others and laugh so as to feel better about themselves. And they really hate to be told to knock that silliness off.

 

[Belkov]

Honestly, the biggest reason for the declining birthrate in Japan is the same reason the birthrate is declining everywhere -- cost of living going up, people working harder and making less (relative to said cost of living), property being hoarded by old money and snapped up by investors to the point that even making good, honest money into your thirties isn't enough to buy a house in Tokyo unless your parents are loaded, no support for either women or men looking to support children, etc. etc. etc.

This problem actually isn't unique to Japan -- look here and you'll see Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, etc. basically tied with Japan and South Korea even quite a bit below.

This isn't just a "Japan problem". This is a "first-world country" problem that at the moment happens to be hitting Japan a bit harder than most.

From what I've read, Japan is the furthest ahead with the demographics timebomb as compared to other developed countries. I think it's obvious that this is due to other developed countries immigration policies which IMHO, only kicks the can down the road.

I also wonder if declining bithrates throughout the developed world is also due to gender equality and welfare safety net where couples don't need large families to support them in old age.

 

[musicisgood]

Long time Japan resident here.

A few things that I've noticed.
People around the fishing villages they have more children than the city folks.
The more educated the person is the more likely they will probably end up in a bigger city with fewer children.
To really find out the problem with the less children in this nation all one has to do is talk to a teacher that's been teaching for 30 to 40 years and here in this country.
I've been camping in this country for the last 4 years and a few things I've noticed is that there are a lot of single women camping and there are a lot of elderly men camping by themselves also I also see families with two to four children each camping so I really think those that are enjoying their lives here in Japan actually have two or more children.
The pension the here in Japan which I actually get now is nothing you can't even buy one month of groceries with the minimum amount that you get.
For those foreigners that come to Japan that want to start an English conversation School it's pretty tough once you get 62 years of age because then you have to wait till you're 65 to get the national pension and it's not much when you're self-employed and you pay into it for many many years and by not much I'm really telling you it's between August every 2 months that's it people I know of this for a fact.

Unless you work for a major corporation and I mean major corporation where you retire where they give you well in the past it was 25 million yen when you retire and then those people generally take out a private investment portfolio and in the past it would be like 20,000 yen to $30,000 in a month maybe a little more payout but in this economic climate I when Banks are are making any money it's the investments is I don't know how they're doing it.
Food cost as we all know due to the end it's been actually very stable for the last three decades and but unfortunately transportation cost and labor cost have gone up at labor cost really hasn't gone up that much the last three decades it really hasn't.
But food cost really takes out a big bite of a person's budget and well just have to get by.

My final thoughts about living in Japan is that one has to work till they drop.
And I see this in the countryside 70 80 90 year old elderly people working at their mom and pop restaurants and little stores it's actually I like to say it's sad but in a way they're enjoying the life and that's just the way it is.

 

[Lothor]

From what I've read, Japan is the furthest ahead with the demographics timebomb as compared to other developed countries. I think it's obvious that this is due to other developed countries immigration policies which IMHO, only kicks the can down the road.

I also wonder if declining bithrates throughout the developed world is also due to gender equality and welfare safety net where couples don't need large families to support them in old age.

In developing countries, gender equality plays a big part in reducing the birth rates, and it's often said that the best way to limit population growth is to educate the girls. On average, a woman working 9-5 doing a job with some kind of career structure is going to have fewer kids than one without a job.

In developed countries, I'm not so sure. First, birth rate is dependent on age (if people are having their first kid at 33 instead of 23, then the birth rate is going to be lower). With both men and women choosing to have children later, I don't think you can conclude that increased gender equality is a cause.

Second, the welfare safety net being the reason for the much lower birth rate in developed countries is what I was taught in the school in the 80s. I don't think it explains the drop in the birth rate since the 80s or the accelerating drop in recent years. I can see that you live in Britain (where I'm from), and you'll know that the welfare safety net is much weaker than it used to be.

There are other factors that could explain it. People having fewer opportunities to meet each other and pair off because of lower disposable income and longer working hours, the inaccessibility of affordable housing and the high cost and lack of support in bringing up children, the desire not to add to an overpopulated world or the inability to see a viable future for humanity with our current race to the ecological precipice. Another definite issue is lower fertility - here's an article on some possible causes of it from the BBC website.

musicisgood - As an editor who loves his job, I fully intend to work until I drop or my eyes give out!

How pollution is causing a male fertility crisis

Sperm quality appears to be declining around the world but is a little discussed cause of infertility. Now scientists are narrowing in on what might be behind the problem.

www.bbc.com

 

[mdchachi]

Here's Bing's crowd-sourced opinion.

That's a good question. There are many factors that contribute to the decline of birthrates in developed countries, such as:

• More women in education and work, leading to delayed marriage and childbearing³⁴.
• Greater access to contraception and family planning services, allowing women to have fewer or no children³⁴.
• Higher costs of living and raising children, especially in urban areas²⁴.
• Changing social norms and values, such as individualism, secularism and feminism²⁴.
• Lower infant and child mortality rates, reducing the need for large families⁴.

These factors vary across different regions and cultures, but they generally result in lower fertility rates, which means the average number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime. The global fertility rate was 2.4 children per woman in 2019, which is approximately half of what it was in 1950³. Many developed economies have seen their birth rate fall well below the 'replacement ratio' of 2.1, meaning that their population will be set to decline in future years¹²⁵.

Some examples of countries with low fertility rates are:

• Japan: 1.3³
• China: 1.3²
• Germany: 1.4⁵
• Spain: 1.4³
• Italy: 1.4⁵
• US: 1.6²

The decline of birthrates has significant implications for the social and economic development of these countries, such as:

• Aging population, with more elderly people than young people³⁴.
• Shrinking workforce, with fewer workers to support the economy and the welfare system³⁴.
• Reduced innovation and productivity, with less human capital and creativity²⁴.
• Increased immigration, with more people moving from high-fertility to low-fertility countries to fill the labor gap²⁵.
• Cultural and demographic changes, with more diversity and integration of different ethnic and religious groups²⁵.

These challenges require careful planning and policy interventions from governments, businesses and civil society to ensure the well-being and sustainability of these countries in the future.

I hope this answer was helpful. If you want to learn more, you can check out these links:

[1] 'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates
[2] Birthrates are declining globally – here's why it matters
[3] Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born
[4] Demographic transition - Wikipedia
[5] Warning Bell for Developed Countries: Declining Birth Rates

Source: Conversation with Bing, 7/16/2023
(1) Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - BBC. Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born.
(2) Demographic transition - Wikipedia. Demographic transition - Wikipedia.
(3) Birthrates are declining globally – here's why it matters. Birthrates are declining globally – here's why it matters.
(4) 'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates - BBC News. 'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates.
(5) Warning Bell for Developed Countries: Declining Birth Rates - Forbes. Warning Bell for Developed Countries: Declining Birth Rates.

 

[thomas]

My final thoughts about living in Japan is that one has to work till they drop. And I see this in the countryside 70 80 90 year old elderly people working at their mom and pop restaurants and little stores it's actually I like to say it's sad but in a way they're enjoying the life and that's just the way it is.

Great post, @musicisgood! Your camping ground observations are more revealing and captivating than most highbrow articles I have read in the past few months.

As an editor who loves his job, I fully intend to work until I drop or my eyes give out!

Same here. My head will hit the desk while conjugating German verbs (or sifting through JREF logs).

 

[johnnyG]

Here's Bing's crowd-sourced opinion.
...
Some examples of countries with low fertility rates are:

• Japan: 1.3³
• China: 1.3²
• Germany: 1.4⁵
• Spain: 1.4³
• Italy: 1.4⁵
• US: 1.6²

Japan doesn't look particularly different. And somehow italy and spain, two that are lower than japan, were left off the list. And the article--any article wants eyeballs and comments, so if you're writing about japan's imminent demise, why mention that south korea's birth rate is below 0.9 -- that kind of undercuts the focus of the article.

Kind of odd that taiwan is also not on that list--they are tied with south korea. And tho who knows what's accurate, it's not hard to find even lower numbers for china (or to see taiwan lumped in with china).

My reading leads me to say that the biggest factor is education, that more highly educated women have fewer children. The follow-on from that is that educated women will more often work (tho not always, and not as permanently as men), and the age at which a first child is born has gone up significantly. Men have more/longer education, too, which leads to higher ages at marriage.

As an (old) american, I have three sibs--two of us had two kids, one had one, the other none.
We have two kids, both married--on has two kids, the other none (so far). <--But that is skewed since they were raised here, not the US.

• How many of you here, posting on this thread, have more than two kids? ((let he who is without sin, cast the first stone))

Japan's advantage, vs some other countries mentioned here, is that it is more highly developed. That's of course less true when the comparison is ROK or taiwan, but very much the case when contrasting it with china (which, I've read also has a diabetes epidemic). UK's medical system seems to have taken a big hit in the last couple years, while japan's seems to be doing pretty well.

I don't think pensions, 35-40yrs into young people's futures, have anything to do with it.

 

[thomas]

The NYT had some interesting graphs in this article a few days ago:

For decades, the world's dominant powers have benefited from large working-age populations that help drive economic growth. Meanwhile, particularly young populations in much of the developing world mean limited resources are diverted to raising children, curbing economic opportunity. But the world's demographic sweet spots are changing, and fast. Japan had the first major shift: By 2013, a quarter of the population was 65 and older, making Japan the oldest large country ever. Soon, much of Western Europe will follow, with record old-age populations. South Korea, Britain and Eastern Europe will be next, along with China. At the same time, many low-income countries today will have huge prime-age labor forces for the first time. Can they take advantage of the opportunity?

Japan has been an old country for over a decade and will remain the oldest average-age country for years. But by 2050, there will be plenty of others, with more than 6 retirees for every 10 working-age adults. China will have more than five. Maybe Japan can show the world the way?

In case you don't hit the paywall, enjoy the graphs.

How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World

The most powerful countries have benefited from large work forces for decades. What happens when they retire?

www.nytimes.com

 

[Maciamo]

I can see why El Pais would be interested in Japan's demographic collapse as Spain has the same birth rate as Japan and has one of the fastest ageing population in Europe.