I had to get some Hong Kong dollars last year and got a really good rate at one of those little currency exchanges near Shinjuku station by Ame Yokocho.
With traders continuing to sell the yen, the market is watching whether the Japanese currency returns to the 160 mark against the dollar reached on 29 April. Japan is believed to have conducted its first yen-buying intervention of the year that day. But the yen continues to depreciate against other currencies seen as less likely to draw Japanese intervention. The Japanese currency hit the 178 range against the Swiss franc on Tuesday, its weakest in data going back to 1982. It also reached the 201 range against the pound on Friday, a roughly 16-year low. The yen also marked a 17-year low against the New Zealand dollar on Friday and an 11-year low against the Australian dollar on Wednesday. The currency did strengthen against the euro following the Japanese intervention. However, the yen has since weakened to 169 from the 167 range marked Friday.
"With the Federal Reserve in no rush to lower interest rates, traders can see all the emphasis for a yen turnaround sits with Japanese authorities and for now their words are doing little to convince traders to change direction," Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield said. Japan's currency may strengthen beyond ¥150 per dollar should officials intervene, but "in the long term, the yen will continue to weaken toward ¥170," said Shinji Kunibe, lead portfolio manager at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. "It's really tempting fate to say 'you can't do ¥170,'" said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. "Is it desirable? No. Is it ruled out as a possibility? Unfortunately not."
Ok I guess I won't buy any more for now. I'm in the red at the moment.One hundred seventy will be the new 160. JPY for USD, that is.
The Japanese yen is in danger of declining to levels not seen since 1986, and traders betting against it are not deterred by the possibility of government action to support the struggling currency. As experts from Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management and Mizuho Bank suggested, a drop to around JPY170 against the dollar is feasible due to ongoing yen sales in exchange for the higher-yielding US dollar.
Currently, investors don't see any vital factors, including potential Japanese yen buying, that could significantly change the trend that has caused the yen to fall nearly 12% this year. The market's behaviour since early May highlights this situation, with the yen returning to its initial position after the finance ministry's unprecedented JPY9.8 trillion (USD61.4 billion) intervention in the market. Nick Twidale from ATFX Global Markets, with 25 years of experience trading the Japanese currency, believes the dollar-yen exchange rate could reach JPY170 quite swiftly. He asserts that short-term interventions are ineffective.
Forget ¥160 — traders see currency falling as far as ¥170 against dollar
The yen is at risk of sliding to levels last seen in 1986, with traders unfazed by the specter of government intervention.www.japantimes.co.jp
The yen (USD:JPY) weakened to 153.84 per U.S. dollar after the election results, its lowest level since the end of July. Japanese stocks were higher, with the Nikkei 225 Index (NKY:IND) up 1.8% on Monday. "With the need to form a new coalition, the government could face weeks of political negotiations," said Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy, Saxo. "... a more divided coalition may feel compelled to implement substantial fiscal spending, complicating the Bank of Japan's path to policy normalization," she added, underscoring the significance of the BOJ's policy decision on Thursday. BOJ is not expected to hike rates then, but markets see a possible increase in December or January.
WowWe're back to almost 154 JPY for 1 USD!
And this might last for weeks or months:
Yen slumps as Japan's ruling coalition loses majority for the first time in 15 years
Japan is set for more political instability after the ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority. Read more.seekingalpha.com
Yen strategists diverge in their outlook after Trump's inflationary fiscal policies and tariff threats have cast uncertainty over the pace of U.S. monetary easing. Higher Treasury yields and a wider U.S.-Japan yield gap would eventually lead to a stronger dollar. Yen bulls foresee the currency strengthening to 140 over the next year whereas bears predict it weakening to 160.
But I wanted to go up to 170.
The reason would be if you have any purchases in yen coming up and you think the yen will get stronger.Those ranges are all over the place.
"The yen might go higher, but then again it might go lower. It depends on a lot of things." It's saying a whole lot of nothing.
I don't see any strong reason to buy yen at this point. My preference would be to hold US$, all things considered. Too much uncertainty, most of it generated by the US itself. But in times of uncertainty, people dump risky assets and cling to the most stable one around.
That was my initial thought too but I think it's perhaps more likely the dollar will remain strong against the yen on average. If the U.S. gets its fiscal house more in order (even while destroying its society and working class) the markets could remain strong. Of course that's assuming democracy, such as it is, continues to function. There's sure to be a lot of volatility for a while though. It's the uncertainty the markets don't like more so than the actions that have been taken.The US government is currently trashing the state machinery and treating former friends like enemies, and the markets don't like it. Even with supposedly US-first policies, the dollar is about 2% weaker against the yen than it was a month ago (the pound and euro are both about 2% higher). As the US becomes a pariah, more countries will be making arrangements with other countries, as Canada is already rapidly doing, which will reduce demand for dollars. The West has been in long-term decline and, as one commentator recently put it, Trump has slammed his foot on the accelerator. I would be buying yen now rather than in a few years. Japan's slow decline due to depopulation and ageing is predictable; America's could be sudden and violent.