Politics The race for the next Japanese PM

Someone called it "pulling a Joe Biden," though that's a lame comparison:

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced that he will not seek re-election as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), stating that the party requires a "new start." The 67-year-old veteran of the LDP is anticipated to resign from his position as Prime Minister after a new leader is elected in September. Kishida's support has waned following a corruption scandal involving his party, rising living costs, and a declining yen. His approval ratings had dropped to 15.5% the previous month, marking the lowest figure for a Prime Minister in over a decade.

During a press conference on Wednesday, Kishida expressed the necessity of demonstrating to the public that the Liberal Democratic Party is ready for change. He emphasized the importance of a transparent and open election process and free and open debate. Kishida noted that stepping back from his position would be a clear and understandable step indicating the LDP's willingness to evolve. Within the party, there are concerns about Kishida's ability to lead the LDP to victory in the upcoming general election scheduled for 2025. The LDP has been in power almost continuously since 1955.

Analysts have told the BBC that Japan is going through a "once-in-a-generation" political crisis as the ruling party fights to clean up its image. Last December, four LDP cabinet ministers resigned within a fortnight over a fundraising scandal involving the ruling party's most powerful faction. Five senior vice-ministers and a parliamentary vice-minister from the same faction, formerly led by the late PM Shinzo Abe, also quit. Japan's prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into whether dozens of LDP lawmakers received proceeds from fundraising events that saw millions of dollars kept off official party records. However, Mr Kishida's handling of the fundraising scandal drew public criticism, which made him more unpopular. The controversy also unfolded as Japanese households struggled with food prices soaring at the fastest rate in almost half a century.

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Under Japan's parliamentary system, the leader of the ruling party, or coalition of parties, becomes prime minister. For almost all of Japan's post-World War II history, the premier has hailed from Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The LDP must hold a leadership race every three years. The next one is due to be held in September, although the dates have yet to be set. Candidates for the party's leadership need 20 signatures from LDP parliamentarians. Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi are among those seen as frontrunners. Political factions are critical in LDP leadership contests, with former prime ministers Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga and Kishida himself seen as potential kingmakers.

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Explainer: What you need to know about Japan picking its next prime minister

thomas said:

Someone called it "pulling a Joe Biden," though that's a lame comparison:

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Well it's similar in that they both took a good look at their chances and decided to do what they thought best for their party. Good for him for not trying to hold on to power until the bitter end.

I'm wondering how AI videos & pictures will affect politics in the years ahead if there is not some kind of control over it. I've seen a few on Facebook where they have a well known person talking and the mouth and lips match the sound perfect. Right now , most I see involve animals moving and singing or talking that are amazing in quality. I have a feeling the future battle over censorship vs free speech and government control over private control will be very complicated.

Grandpa Frank said:

I'm wondering how AI videos & pictures will affect politics in the years ahead if there is not some kind of control over it. I've seen a few on Facebook where they have a well known person talking and the mouth and lips match the sound perfect. Right now , most I see involve animals moving and singing or talking that are amazing in quality. I have a feeling the future battle over censorship vs free speech and government control over private control will be very complicated.

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Yes, it's going to be bad. We already have people believing hoaxes just based on text content. The realistic fake videos of people will take it to the next level. Scary.

The race to become Japan's next leader officially began on Thursday, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's unexpected announcement that he would not seek re-election. Several current and former Cabinet members have indicated their intentions to run in next month's leadership election for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.


Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa said the outgoing prime minister had stated that all ministers were welcome to enter the contest. However, Hayashi, believed to be close to Kishida, did not confirm whether he would participate.

Digital Minister Kono Taro and Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae have both shown enthusiasm for the leadership role. Kono, known for his reformist approach and adept use of social media, expressed a desire to leverage his extensive ministerial experience. As the son of Kono Yohei, who led the LDP in opposition during the 1990s, Kono Taro has previously served as foreign and defence minister. Takaichi, recognized for her strong security stance, shared her aspiration to strengthen and enrich Japan for future generations and emphasized her commitment to this mission alongside her fellow lawmakers.

Former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, a seasoned fourth-term House of Representatives member and former Finance Ministry official, appeared ready to join the race. He noted that his focus would be on improving his political abilities.

Industry Minister Saito Ken reported receiving numerous calls urging him to run in the presidential election. He mentioned that he is starting to consider these suggestions seriously. Saito has held several ministerial positions throughout his career. Former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru, who is popular with the public, LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu and former Environment Minister Koizumi Shinjiro are also possible contenders.

He's tried so many times; perhaps this will be his last shot.


In a Kyodo News poll released Monday, former Japanese Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru emerged as the leading candidate deemed most suitable to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the ruling party's presidential election next month. The nationwide telephone survey, conducted over three days starting Saturday, revealed Ishiba with 25.3 per cent support, followed by former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi at 19.6 per cent and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi at 10.1 per cent.

However, among Liberal Democratic Party supporters specifically, Koizumi led with 24.2 per cent, while Ishiba trailed at 21.0 per cent. This suggests that Ishiba is facing challenges in expanding his support base within the party as the leadership race approaches, scheduled for 27 September. The poll follows Prime Minister Kishida's unexpected announcement last week that he will not seek re-election amid a scandal involving slush funds from late last year, which has significantly shaken the LDP.

Ishiba, 67, intends to throw his hat into the ring, marking his fifth attempt to lead the party. His popularity is low within the party as he left it in 1993 after voting in favour of a no-confidence motion against the then-LDP-led government. He returned to the fold in 1997. Koizumi, 43, is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who led Japan from 2001 to 2006 with relatively high approval ratings. Takaichi is a 63-year-old female politician known for her hawkish views on security issues. Kishida's LDP has come under scrutiny after some of its factions, such as the largest one formerly led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, neglected to report portions of their incomes from fundraising parties and maintained slush funds for years. When they would prefer the House of Representatives to be dissolved, 34.2 per cent of respondents said "within the year." In comparison, 30.3 per cent favoured it taking place immediately after the end of the LDP presidential race.

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Koizumi Shinjiro, one of the official candidates for the LDP leadership race on 27 September, vowed to clean up politics, initiate discussions on constitutional reform and allow married couples to use dual surnames if he is elected president of the ruling party.

Koizumi stated at a Tokyo press conference on 6 September that while many people have low expectations for politics, the only way for the LDP to truly change is by electing a leader who can significantly accelerate reform rather than one who advocates for it. He officially announced his candidacy and outlined his policies at the conference. Koizumi expressed his intention to dissolve the Lower House as soon as possible to expedite party reform and seek public approval through a vote of confidence. The election, scheduled for 27 September, is taking place amidst a political funding scandal that has plagued the LDP. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's handling of the scandal has been widely criticized, leading to his decision not to seek re-election. Koizumi emphasized that he would end the opaque use of political funds, a practice uniquely allowed in politics. Regarding the LDP lawmakers who failed to report their political funds properly, Koizumi stated that a new party leadership under his guidance would decide whether to endorse them in future elections officially.

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@thomas - This is a delayed comment to your earlier post, but in the two paragraphs,

In a Kyodo News poll released Monday, former Japanese Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru emerged as the leading candidate deemed most suitable to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the ruling party's presidential election next month. The nationwide telephone survey, conducted over three days starting Saturday, revealed Ishiba with 25.3 per cent support, followed by former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi at 19.6 per cent and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi at 10.1 per cent.

However, among Liberal Democratic Party supporters specifically, Koizumi led with 24.2 per cent, while Ishiba trailed at 21.0 per cent. This suggests that Ishiba is facing challenges in expanding his support base within the party as the leadership race approaches, scheduled for 27 September. The poll follows Prime Minister Kishida's unexpected announcement last week that he will not seek re-election amid a scandal involving slush funds from late last year, which has significantly shaken the LDP.

only the second paragraph is relevant. Only LDP members (with a weighting of 50% for Diet members and 50% for rank-and-file members) get a vote. What the rest of us think doesn't matter. On that basis, Koizumi may well get in (Mrs Lothor is a fan), though the murky world of factions seems to favour older candidates.

The Koizumi name sounded familiar, and sure enough, his father is none other than Koizumi Junichiro. I would think that's quite a feather in his cap.

Yea I knew, would have been more fun if he was related to 小泉八雲 小泉八雲 - Wikipedia

If we are lucky maybe he has an interest in Elvis. BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Koizumi in US for Sayonara summit Koizumi had more of a personality in western media than most leaders of Japan.

Mikawa Ossan said:

The Koizumi name sounded familiar, and sure enough, his father is none other than Koizumi Junichiro. I would think that's quite a feather in his cap.

小泉進次郎 - Wikipedia

ja.wikipedia.org

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If he had only half the brains his father has.

Anyhow, the three top contenders for the LDP presidency seem to be Ishiba, Koizumi, and Takaichi. The lesser evil of all three would be Ishiba.

The next leader of Japan's ruling party, and by extension, the prime minister, will be either former defense chief Shigeru Ishiba, rising star and youngest contender Shinjiro Koizumi or economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, according to a Kyodo News tally and analysis on Wednesday. With the three contenders running neck and neck in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, no clear winner is expected to emerge in the first round of voting on Friday. The final victor will be decided in a runoff between the top two candidates. Whoever secures a majority of the 736 votes -- 368 by LDP lawmakers and 368 by rank-and-file members -- will become the next LDP chief. More than 40 lawmakers have yet to decide who to vote for, making the situation fluid.

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There's an excellent article on Ishiba at Tobias Harris' substack Observing Japan. If you are remotely interested in Japanese politics and you want to know why Ishiba is seen as a traitor by the Abe hawks, read this:



The more I read about him, the more I like him:



JT also had a piece on Abe disciple Takaichi, who is the most visible among the top three but most likely too conservative for the general electorate:

That was a very good article on Ishiba.

Ex-defense chief Ishiba elected Japan ruling party leader

Amazingly, the runoff took place between Takaichi and Ishiba.

Ishiba 215 votes, Takaichi 194 votes!

Japan's ruling party presidential race will go to a runoff between economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba after none of the record nine candidates secured a majority in the first round of voting on Friday. The winner of the Liberal Democratic Party election will replace incumbent Fumio Kishida as party chief and therefore prime minister. Of the some 730 votes cast by LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members, Takaichi secured 181 votes, the most among the nine candidates, followed by 154 for Ishiba and 136 for former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.

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Again, Tobias Harris provides his illustrious insights on the election of Mr Ishiba:


As much as I want to see a woman at the helm, I am glad Mrs Takaichi didn't make it. She's one of Abe's children and as hawkish and ultra-nationalist as they come. It is troubling enough that she garnered so many votes.

[...] I think we can reach some initial conclusions about what Ishiba foreign policy might look like. His victory is good news for continuity in the Japan-South Korea relationship. Regarding the relationship with China, he clearly wants Japan to be able to defend itself, but he will be more prepared to build on the tentative steps to stabilize the bilateral relationship than Takaichi would have been, particularly after the fatal stabbing in Shenzhen. On the relationship with the United States, clearly Ishiba has changes he would like to make in the alliance, but presumably he will not be able to do much before the US presidential election.

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Japanese reaction after the President of the LDP election

市場は〝石破ショック〟の様相　円急騰、日経平均株価の先物は一時2000円超も急落

27日午後に投開票した自民党総裁選で、石破茂元幹事長（67）の選出されると、市場は敏感に反応した。日銀の追加利上げに肯定的な石破氏の当選が伝わると、東京外国為…

www.sankei.com

In the market, as for the aspect Japanese yen sudden rise of " Ishiba shock ", the futures of the Nikkei Stock Average, more than 2,000 yen make a sudden drop at one time, too.
When Ishiba Chief Secretary Shigemoto (67) was elected by LDP presidential election performed voting and counting the ballots of on the afternoon of 27th, the market reacted sensitively. Election of affirmative Ishiba was handed down to an additional rise in interest rates of Bank of Japan, and the yen rose suddenly from a 146 yen to the dollar stand to the 143 yen level in the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market in several minutes. Sanae Takaichi economic security minister in charge (63) of the active financial group loses, and selling suddenly enlarges even futures of the Nikkei Stock Average because the expectation of the economic ripple effect by the financial dispatch faded. More than 2,000 yen make a sudden drop at one time, and the market presents an aspect of " Ishiba shock ".

There was the scene where Japanese yen posted 1 dollar = 142 yen level late at one time against the dollar in the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market of the same day. In addition, in the domestic bond market, rise in interest rates expectation of Bank of Japan increased, and the newly-issued 10-year bond government bonds which became the index of the long-term interest rate rose as a result of 0.855% and presidential election at one time from 0.805% before the announcement. Ishiba said that "you respected independency of Bank of Japan" and should do the monetary policy administration during a presidential election and showed an affirmative posture to an addition rise in interest rates of Bank of Japan.

In addition, a thing makes a sudden drop to around 37,700 yen in Nikkei futures by the night business of the Osaka exchange of the same day in December. More than from 39850 yen to 2000 yen of the futures settlement level of the same day (equivalent to the stock prices closing price) became cheaper, too.

The chief Masahiro Ichikawa market strategist of the Mitsui Sumitomo DS asset management explains, "a market disfavored a policy stance of Ishiba indicating the will for reinforcement of the finance income taxation to focus on finance reform, and to impose on the sale gain of stocks". Selling of the Japanese stock is more likely to go up because of futures leadership and considers that downturn pressure works to the Nikkei Stock Average of the beginning of the week.