The Next Elections

[Keoland]

Well, now that his postal reform bill had been rejected by the Upper House, the Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'Ichiro has carried through with his word and dissolved the Diet.

According to the leader of the coalitions' junior party, the next elections will take place about September 11th...

Now, while this is really not the best time for the Jiyuminshuto to face an election, it would seem to me that the opposition will have a hard time winning the poll.

More to the point, it seems to me that the statements of Mori Yoshiro, head of the main Jiyuminshuto faction, that about half the parties' MPs may lose their seats in the upcoming election are an exaggeration.

What do the good people here think? Will this election change little, or can wee see a repeat of the crisis in the Party like the one in 1993/94?

 

[Elizabeth]

I would also be interested in some early analysis from any of our members there.

All I can extract from listening to Japanese media is that the debate seems to have become less and less about the postal issue and more about other of Koizumi's policies, but I don't have enough understanding to put it in a broader context.

Was 1993-94 the last election cycle the Jiminto lost power ?

 

[Keoland]

Was 1993-94 the last election cycle the Jiminto lost power ?

IIRC, those eight months were the only time since 1954 that the party wasn't in power.

Still, one of the pressing issues for Koizumi is the question on how to deal with the rebel factions within the Jiyuminshuto - will they split into a new party, or will they be able to run unopposed? And if they run as a new party, can they win over the partys' 'official' candidates?

Let us not forget that many of those lawmakers hold much influence in their prefectures, and that many workers of Japan Post and others who fear change will be very likely to vote for them...

Regards,
Keoland

 

[Keoland]

An interesiting development... according to the polls released yesterday by the Mainichi and the Asahi newspapers, Koizumis' rating is skyrocketing.

In fact, about 29% of those polled were more interested to vote for the Jiyuminshuto IF it dropped its anti-privatization rebels, and now a majority of the japanese consider the Japan Post issue to be a major one.

This is a huge triumph for Mr. Koizumi, in particular because this reform has been is main goal for the last 13 years, while most people didn't give a damn about it previously...

Maybe he *is* the maverick he was slated to be when he first became Prime Minister?

Regards,
Keoland

 

[donpaulo]

it certainly is an interesting issue. I have talked about it with quite a few of my students and frankly can't fully grasp the details. Suffice to say that the BBC had some very interesting things to say about it all. Granted that its not a japanese source but I needed to at least understand the basics.
I think the polls are also reflecting the recent surge in the nikkei and foreign investment here. If the PM can ride the wave, crush the old guard and pass his post office reforms it could make life very interesting in japan.

 

[Keoland]

On the other hand, Koizumi announced yesterday he will retire from heading the Jiyuminshuto on September 2006, even if he does win with an absolute majority...

That, of course, begets the question of the future of his reforms, most of which are slated to last for well over a decade (the privatization of Japan Post was set to last until 2017, for example).

I'm not sure his policies can be sustained, especially given the anti-liberal standpoint of many politicians around... :?

Regards,
Keoland

 

[pipokun]

I don't know who'll win the election, but I bet demise of former Tanaka faction in the LDP as well as Social Democratic party, former Socialist Party. Both are supposed to be the symbol of post-war J political game.
Trillions of yen at postal saving is a cash cow for the ruling party, and the strong networking & labour union is a voting machine for both of them.

Koizumi is a small govenment oriented politician, and said to loathe the Tanaka faction's "money talks" way. It is in their in-house regulation that you can chair the party up to three tenure terms in the LDP, with exception of ex-PM Nakasone.

Nobody knows the future, but Japan has to face up to the reality with her huge debt.

 

[donpaulo]

my guess is that he wants to push the reforms, and then not be around to deal with the consequences. Which there are bound to be...
I for one think that reform is a worthy goal and that Japan is in need of it, especially when you consider some of the recent management and decision issues in regards to public spending. The highway corporation has some "issues" and the plethora of "new" airports are concerning.
JR was privatized and seems to be doing well enough now.
Either way September 11 will make for some interesting news.