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Predicting Earthquakes

predicting earthquakes for japan

may be bit south of honshu.do check the place.
 
rahul bhatnagar said:
hello guys,
a strong earthquake is likely to strike japan on 15 or 19 march 2007 of magnitude between 6.0 to 7.0 on richter scale in south western japan.
so take care.
Click to expand...
How exactly do you predict such a thing?
 
predicting earthquake for japan

hello friends,
i am back again after a long time and my next prediction is -
THERE WILL BE A STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN IN WESTERN REGION OF HONSHU OR SOUTH OF HONSHU OF MAGNITUDE 6.2 TO 7.5 OR MORE ON RICHTER SCALE ON 26 AUGUST 2007 OR 30 AUGUST 2007 ON EITHER OF THESE DATES.
so people living in japan should take precautions on these dates.

check my video on this site - http://www.youtube.com/rahulbhatnagar2k2
 
earthquake prediction for japan

guys i still think earthquake can occur in japan on 6 sep 2007.
 
That's cool...because I'm pretty sure that an earthquake can occur pretty much any and everyday...but one probably will not occur.

On a side note...looks like you missed the big one by a few days. Glad people aren't counting on you to save their lives!
 
Oh dear, another Earthquake is going to hit Japan in two days time. I hope all the rescue people have been informed of this event and are on stand-by.

If Earthquakes could be truely predicted then I would hope that the people of the state of California,USA will be told when the 10.5 magnitude is going to hit the San Andreas fault. I think millions of people are at risk in that part of the world.

And on a side note I wish to predict a mini earthquake right where I live on 6th September 2008 inbetween the hours of 6.30am and 9.30am. It is rubbish collection day on that day and the big yellow truck sure does cause vibrations through the ground.
 
Earthquakes or no earthquakes, I just wanted to say 'HI' --app kaise hue the? How have you been? bahut der ho gaya tha, na !! It's been a long time, hasn't it!!

Let us know what's on your mind, but I think it may be hard to convence many. phir milenge ji !! See you later !! MM
 
If this guy can predict earthquakes with any sort of documentable accuracy, then why hasn't he published his methods and findings in a credible peer-reviewed journal?

Reminds me of guys like Edgar Cayce.
 
GodEmperorLeto san (at first I had just put the capitalized abbreviated form, but that just didn't look good at all. . . so. . . )

The method used is not really a scientific method--especially if one were to look at it from that angle. The reasoning behind it, from what I recall, may intersect with scientific principles at points, but also intersect with what we would otherwise call religious belief-system principles. It appeared to have been a marriage of the two.

I wonder who Edgar Cayce is/was. . .
 
Mars Man said:
GodEmperorLeto san (at first I had just put the capitalized abbreviated form, but that just didn't look good at all. . . so. . . )
...
I wonder who Edgar Cayce is/was. . .
Click to expand...
To your first comment, feel free to abbreviate it. People on other fora do. It's my generic handle.

As to your second comment, Edgar Cayce was a famous psychic who wrote about Atlantis and is not unlike earlier (and contemporary) occultists, like Madame Blavatsky and the Theosophists.

Like I said, this guy reminds me of Edgar Cayce. Especially since his "methods" seem to delve into the metaphysical.
 
Thanks, GEL san, (it'll take me a while to get used to seeing that form though) I'll check out those links !! I am aware of and have some writings from Theosophy that a member here on JREF had provided for me.

Yes, the methods do do that, in part. Thanks for your reply and information !! MM
 
hello guys,
as i said an earthquake could strike japan on 6sep, an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 on richter scale occured between ryukyu islands and taiwan.check this site-
気象庁｜統合地図ページ.
i am not getting my prediction accurately these days.like one i predicted in jan 2007 earthquake did occur but after one week likewise in march i predicted dates on 15 and 19 mar and earthquake occured on 25 march.i am not been able to give 100% to my research as my health is now effecting my prediction skills, i was suffering from severe cervical spine disorder and was on bed for 6 months .all these dates were calculated by me in 2006.
i have repeatedly said earlier i predict only those earthquakes which are more than 6.0 on richter and not those which occur daily in japan.i also dont predict everyday.so its not a guess work.
i dont know i will predict dates of earthquakes occuring in japan as i can see that there will be some activity in dec,jan 2008 in north-eastern areas.
 
Hello there !! I am sorry to hear of your illness, and I do hope that it can and will get better !!

Predicting or not, I hope you will stay in good health !! I would love to hear any ideas you may have on other topics on JREF, too !! Cheers !! Talk to you later, bhai !! Mars Man
 
This isn't an exact science guys, it's a crapshoot that usually guarantees success based solely on probability. If you increase the size of the area of your guess, and the timeframe, you will always improve your odds. Earthquakes seem to follow a pattern, and rahul is probably basing his predictions on historical earthquake patterns. There is a gigantic amount of around 5-6 magnitude earthquakes all the time around the world. Check this list out: Page Redirection . There is a large number of 5-6 magnitude earthquakes, especially off the coast of northern hokkaido or east honshu as well.

Anyways, predicting large, powerful earthquakes in the 8-9 magnitude is very difficult though (a magnitude 8 quake is 1000 times more powerful than a magnitude 5 quake BTW). They seem to follow a pattern as well, but you can't get it down to a week timeframe, it is usually in the tens to dozens of years. The only methods there are for "predicting" earthquakes for now are geological data, and measuring plate slippage using 3D maps generated by what i like to call "ground-pounders", which are a fleet of huge trucks that japan has that pounds the ground, generates a seismic wave that reflects off the fault and back to the machine, and a 3D image of the ground is made. You can also do this too with explosives (how they used to do it), but it is less exact.

The best way for now that I see for informing the public is not predicting earthquakes, but warning them of them just as they are about to happen. There are new systems that can detect the "p" or "compression" waves after an earthquake hits. It is always the "p" waves that hit first, you cannot feel them, but they slightly precede the "s" or "shear" waves, the waves that you feel and cause the shaking. The further you are from the epicenter, the more advance warning you will get.

The quake warning system is going to be installed all across japan by this october:
MSN | Outlook, Office, Skype, Bing, Breaking News, and Latest Videos
http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/national/news/20070831p2a00m0na023000c.html
They are also planning to patch the earthquake warning data to keitais, which is an EXCELLENT idea in my opinion:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132387/article.html

I hope you are feeling in better health rahul bhatnagar, sounds like what you went through with your spine was painful >_<
 


I recently watched a Discovery Channel program on this (sadly with work and play keeping me so busy this is what my intake of new science developments is often limited to source-wise) and this system is probably the best there is. Unfortunately it only gives a few minutes, or even seconds, of warning time depending on where the epicenter is, as was pointed out. Still, the main idea is that loss of life may be reduced if crucial steps are taken during those precious seconds.

In the same program they explained how tectonic plates don't actually place pressure on one another over time and then suddenly release like we used to think. Instead there's a complicated 'dance' that they do, back and forth, against each other, constantly. During a certain phase the probability of an earthquake happening is low, and during another its high. I think when they're moving away from one another the probability is low as directional friction is also low; but when they're moving towards each other this is the period when they're likely to snag on one another and create the deadly ripple effect known as an earthquake.

One thing scientists do know is that sometime in the next 30 years a large earthquake around the 7-8 magnitude range is slated (excuse the pun) to occur in the Kanto region. Hopefully the loss of life will be minimal, but there's no way to avoid this or the damage Tokyo will incur.
 
Yes bakaKanadajin, the warning will be only from about 5-30 seconds (depending on where you are in relation to the epicenter), but that time is precious. That time can be used to shut off gas valves, or find shelter in a safe area if a warning goes out that there is an impending magnitude 8 quake.

It is my understanding that JR already has these installed on the Shinkansen and some other local trains, and once "p" waves are sensed over a certain magnitude, the train automatically applies the brakes. It's better for the train to derail while it is at rest, than to derail while going 250km/h, right?

If they could somehow tie the system into the gas system, and allow an auto-shutoff when it sensed an impending large quake, you could eliminate the main cause of fires from an earthquake right there. Powerplants could also shutoff power, so that powerlines, which would certainly fall in a quake as big as a M8.0, couldn't start electrical fires since no electricity would be running though them. Although the time window for warning is small, you don't need a lot of time to make a whole lot of things more safe in an earthquake (including yourself).
 
Any degree of warning will be helpful for some--those who can really do anything about it to prepare or protect themselves--but other than the transportation systems, maybe the atomic power plants and a few other things, many people will not be able to do much about a 30 second warning; in my opinion.

If a quake of that size (over 7) were to occur in the wee hours of the morning--like in Kobe--I'm not sure how much it would help. HOWEVER...I guess something is better than nothing.

There had been talk about static buildup which would create could 'rings' or something of that nature. I'm not sure just how scientifically correct that TV program was that talked about that 'phenomenon' though.
 
earthquake prediction

there could be an earthquake on 12 oct 2007 in japan in north eastern area of hokkaido around 6.0 mag
 
It's going to be dark tonight. I think there will be an earthquake in Japan today. Of course there area going to be earthquakes in Japan everyday and just about any or every region as the country sits on 4 tectonic plates. I leave on the 18th for Tokyo and I know that I will be in a earthquake, it's Japan. So far, every trip I have taken to Japan I have felt an earthquake....
 
new share market predictions

hello friends,
its been a long time since i predicted new earthquakes here but now i have started doing research on share market specially on american stock market DOW JONES.if you want to earn money just check my video on you tube -
and for other aspects of your life you can contact me here-
http://www.kasamba.com/psychic-raul
 
predicting earthquake for japan

hello friends,
i am back again and my next prediction is-
A STRONG EARTHQUAKE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN JAPAN IN EASTERN HONSHU ON 8 or 10 or 14 JANUARY 2008 ON EITHER OF THESE DATES OF MAGNITUDE OF 6.0 TO 7.0 ON RICHTER SCALE.
so please take necessary precautions on these dates.
 
predicting earthquakes for japan

hello friends ,
A POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE IS LIKELY TO STRIKE JAPAN IN EASTERN HONSHU{OFF IBARAKI PREF OR AROUND MIYAGI PREF} ON 21 OR 26 MARCH 2008 ON EITHER OF THESE DATES OF MAGNITUDE BETWEEN 6.2 TO 7.5 ON RICHTER SCALE.

so people living around these areas should take care on these days.
 
Recently also there were many signs that probably another big earhquake is on the way. I collected a couple of recent facts and put the results here:
www,japanforum,com/forum/general-discussion/15792-increased-propability-big-eq-near-tokyo-year.html (you need to replace , by .)
 
earthquake prediction for japan

hello friends,
A POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE IS LIKELY TO STRIKE JAPAN IN SOUTH OF HONSHU POSSIBLY TOKAIDO OR EASTERN HONSHU OF MAGNITUDE 6 TO 7 OR MORE ON RICHTER SCALE ON 18 OR 20 JULY 2008 .
TIME IS ALSO NOT GOOD FOR INDIA IN JULY SPECIALLY AFTER MID JULY.
WORLDWIDE ACTIVITY OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES WILL INCREASE IN JULY.
people living in japan should take precaution on these dates.
 
After my recent post, there has been the M7.2 quake - the Ion measurements seemed to be correct.

As Rahul, I also believe that there is another quake coming soon, since the Ion measurement which can be seen at e-pisco (you'll find quickly in google) exceeded again the scale in Kanawa these days. Usually it takes 3-30 days after the breakout to the occuring quake.
 
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