JREFの皆さん、こんにちは!
It's been a hell of a week for both Seoul and Pyongyang this week, and I'd like to post some new developments on the Korean Peninsula.
The Termination of Kaesong Industrial Complex
Yes. Once a symbol of cooperation between and a step toward to the unification of the two, last-standing divided nations on planet Earth, the Kaesong Industrial Complex was closed on the 11th day of February 11.
This illustrates how high the tension between North and South Koreas is. In retaliation for the long-range missile launched by the Pyongyang and as a warning for a possible fourth nuclear test conducted by it, Seoul decided to "limit" its business operations in Kaesong. Then, North Korea froze all assets there, kicked out all South Korean workers, and thus put a stop to any and all business activity. In response, South Korea cut of the supply of electricity and water to the Kaesong region. This is viewed as South Korea's appeal to the international community that it resolutely supports sanctions being imposed on North Korea for the transgressions it committed.
Now, here is an interesting issue which a lot of South Koreans are talking about. Kaesong is a special administrative industrial region in North Korea. In the present, there are about 150,000 North Korean people living in Kaesong. These people had the privilege of continuous supply of electricity and water from the South which invested a huge sum of money in building the public infrastructure in that region. Suddenly, they have no access to such things. Do you think these North Korean people may be the seeds of revolution in North Korea?
Military Firepower: Who's Stronger?
South Korea is now seriously considering the deployment of THAAD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, from the United States despite China's strong opposition (For your information, China is South Korea's biggest trading partner, so you can guess the grip China has on South Korea). In addition, US deployed additional Patriot missile batteries and troops in South Korea on top of all the joint military demonstrations including the B-52 bomber which flew over South Korean airspace. In fact, some people are even saying that South Korea must consider developing its own nuclear weapon using the nuclear facilities in the country. But this seems to be a difficult endeavor considering the fact that Republic of Korea is a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NTP).
Meanwhile, North Korea is now in the stage of forming a third so-called "missile belt" on the norther side of the Korean Peninsula.
The first missile belt is mainly constituted by about 400 Scud missiles with an additional 40 mobile missile launching pads. They cover the entire South Korean land. About 300 Rodong missiles are deployed in the second missile belt, and they not only include South Korea but also Japan and the US military bases there in their range. The third missile belt is currently home to about 30 ~ 50 Musudan missiles, and North Korea is trying to add the KN-08 missiles, which has the US mainland in its range, to the third belt.
Okay, that was a mouthful. I think it's better to look at a
photo.
But again, you can't stop doubting North Korea's actual capabilities. One reason is that their equipment are very old. As for the long-range missiles, missile tests have not been conducted to prove the missiles' effectiveness.