Politics Japan's Upper House election 2025: hot-button issue immigration and foreign residents

[thomas]

The wonderful season of election campaigns, when it's alright to stoke fear of foreign residents and immigrants:

With the impending Upper House election on 20 July, political parties in Japan have begun advocating for tighter controls on foreign residents and immigrants, as well as more stringent policies in dealing with them. Sanseito, promoting a "Japan first" agenda, has attracted noticeable backing, prompting other conservative parties to follow suit in what appears to be a bid to win over conservative voters. Although foreign workers are playing an increasingly important role in addressing the country's labour shortages, some experts caution that a growing trend of exclusionary sentiment could pose a serious threat to Japan's democratic foundations.

Mainichi takes a look at what the Japanese parties have to say about the issue:

Japan political parties pledging restrictions on foreigners with eye on conservative votes - The Mainichi

TOKYO -- As the July 20 House of Representatives election approaches, political parties in Japan have been proposing restrictions on accepting foreign

mainichi.jp

Tobias Harris on Sanseitō, a party that aligns itself with France's Rassemblement National, Germany's AfD, and Britain's Reform UK:

Sanseitō and other parties are competing to propose restrictions on the inflow of foreign workers and control the foreign population already settled in Japan, as Japan's foreign population has become an issue in this campaign. Mainichi suggests that these parties are competing for the votes of conservatives disaffected with the post-Abe LDP, which, having pushed for more foreign workers, is constrained in proposing restrictionist measures. That said, Prime Minister Ishiba announced on Tuesday, 8 July, that his government would set up an office in the cabinet secretariat focused on "orderly co-existence" with foreign residents, consistent with the LDP's manifesto. Meanwhile, in a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan, Sanseitō leader Kamiya, not surprisingly, stated that he has affinities for France's Rassemblement National, Germany's AfD, Britain's Reform UK, and the Republican Party in the US. Amidst this shift, a group of NGOs stated on Tuesday, pushing back against anti-foreign sentiment.

Memorial day | Today in the Upper House Campaign

The parties respond to Trump's letter, immigration as a campaign issue, and mixed signals in polling

observingjapan.substack.com

 

[thomas]

The new specified skills visa is expected to lead to a further surge in foreign residents living in Japan to help fill labor shortages in various industries. But several problems have already arisen, including traffic accidents and crimes caused by non-Japanese nationals. And some politicians have warned about the loss of Japanese culture in areas with large foreign communities. The central government on 8 July said it will establish an organization in the Cabinet Secretariat early next week to strengthen its response to problems caused by foreign residents.

Hot-button issue in election: How to deal with the rise in foreigners | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

www.asahi.com

On the other hand, however:

Close to 300 nongovernmental organisations issued a joint statement criticising what they described as xenophobic rhetoric used by candidates during the Upper House election campaign, including the spread of unfounded claims that foreigners enjoy special privileges. The statement, released yesterday, was coordinated by eight groups and endorsed by a further 266 organisations. At a press conference held the same day, one of the organisers, lawyer Yasuko Morooka, argued that foreign residents were being unfairly blamed for rising costs of essentials such as rice and daily goods—issues that have stirred public discontent.

Morooka maintained there was no evidence to support widespread rumours alleging preferential treatment for foreigners in areas such as healthcare, pensions, or the national health insurance system, suggesting that such narratives were being used to make foreign nationals scapegoats for broader economic frustrations.

274 NGOs blast xenophobia in Diet election campaign | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

www.asahi.com

 

[thomas]

More voices of reason: The governor of Miyagi, who also serves as president of the National Governors' Association, Murai Yoshihiro, remains committed to coexisting with foreigners, calling fears of job losses or lawlessness unfounded.

Murai reportedly stated that Japan, as an advanced nation, should accept the presence of foreign nationals in today's globalised world. His remarks came in the context of the upcoming Upper House election scheduled for 20 July, in which certain political parties have proposed stricter controls on foreign residents and tighter immigration policies. Murai is said to have pointed out that many Japanese themselves pursue opportunities abroad, making it inconsistent for Japan to close its doors to foreigners. He also referred to Miyagi Prefecture's proactive stance on welcoming foreign workers, noting outreach initiatives aimed at youth in Indonesia. Addressing concerns that foreigners might take jobs from local workers, Murai reportedly explained that Japan faces a severe labour shortage. In specific sectors, where ten workers are required, only seven or eight Japanese are available, prompting the need for foreign labour to fill the gap. Murai also noted that criminal acts are not limited to non-Japanese, and measures to safeguard public safety should be applied broadly rather than targeting foreign nationals alone.

Miyagi governor says Japan should not reject foreigners | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

 

[thomas]

Japan is no stranger to fake new: Since March this year, social media posts falsely claiming that foreign residents account for one-third of households on welfare in Japan have been spotted in Japan, and such posts went viral shortly before campaigning for the House of Councillors election officially got underway in early July, where policies regarding foreign nationals have come under the spotlight.

In truth, foreign residents make up fewer than 3% of all households receiving welfare support in Japan. Despite this, misleading claims have been circulating on social media platforms such as X. One frequently shared post asserts, "Out of 1.65 million welfare-receiving households, 560,000 are foreign households. That's 33%. Is it okay for foreigners to make up one-third?" Such posts began gaining traction in March, around the time an article and a related chart were published online on 17 March, fuelling misinformation on the issue.

Public welfare is provided once a month in principle, and the number of recipient households (definitive figure) released annually by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare is based on the monthly average. According to the ministry, 1,650,478 households nationwide received public assistance in fiscal 2023 (with the figure being the monthly average between April 2023 and March 2024), of which 47,317 households were headed by foreigners. This indicates that foreigners account for roughly 2.9% of all households on welfare, well below the "one-third" as claimed by those false posts online. The corresponding figure for fiscal 2022 similarly stood at around 2.9%. Regardless, the posts that went viral compared the monthly number of approximately 1.65 million households on welfare against the 12-month total of roughly 560,000 foreign households on welfare, erroneously calculating that the latter accounted for more than 30% of the total.

False posts claiming 'foreigners account for 1/3 of households on welfare' go viral in Japan - The Mainichi

TOKYO -- Social media posts falsely claiming that foreign residents account for one-third of households on welfare in Japan have been spotted since ar

mainichi.jp

 

[thomas]

Jake Adelstein on the upcoming election: "Japanese First" and the Race to the Bottom: How Japan's Upper House Election Became a Showcase for Xenophobia. Worth reading!

In this year's upper house elections, Japan's conservative parties are locked in a competition that feels eerily familiar to anyone who's watched American politics over the past decade. Each party seems determined to outdo the others in channeling Donald Trump's brand of populist, xenophobic rhetoric. The dog whistles have become foghorns; some candidates are skipping the coded language and saying the quiet part out loud. With foreigners making up less than 3% of Japan's population, the catchy phrase "Japanese First" has turned this tiny minority into a convenient scapegoat for the country's persistent social and economic woes.

Takashi Tachibana of the NHK party is running with a poster proclaiming himself the Japanese Trump. In large letters, the poster says: "Opposed to Immigrants (移民は反対)", the smaller print adds the words "illegal".

NHK Party leader Takashi Tachibana dispenses with any pretense, declaring, "I will continue to be racist because I'm scared," and openly expressing fear of black and Muslim people. These are not fringe voices—they are party leaders, and their words are being broadcast to millions. Tachibana is the most slavish sycophant of Trumpism. He has a political party declaring that he is "the Japanese Trump."

Sanseito: "Japanese First"

“Japanese First” and the Race to the Bottom: How Japan’s Upper House Election Became a Showcase for Xenophobia

In this Japan's Upper House elections, rightwing parties are locked in a competition that feels eerily familiar to anyone who’s watched American politics, with even "a Japanese Trump" in the running.

tokyopaladin.substack.com

 

[thomas]

The PM is joining the tango: Today, PM Ishiba inaugurated a new division within the Cabinet Secretariat, to "reassess and revise the government's approach to concerns related to Japan's expanding foreign population." This move comes amid heightened political debate over immigration, with the issue emerging as a 'hot-button issue' in the lead-up to Sunday's House of Councillors election.

Sanseito, a small but increasingly popular ultraconservative party, has been most outspoken in demanding stricter immigration controls and a reduction in the number of foreign residents. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi rejected claims that the creation of the new office—staffed by approximately 80 personnel—was politically motivated or intended to sway the election.

At a ceremony to mark the office's launch, Ishiba cited the need to address issues such as proper immigration control, unpaid social security premiums and the acquisition of land by foreigners. However, the government faces a delicate balancing act in considering more stringent regulations while ensuring it does not open itself up to allegations of discrimination. Ishiba said Japan sees the inflow of foreign nationals as a key driver of economic growth. But he said, "It's important for us to take stricter responses to those who do not follow our rules and rework the existing system if it does not match the reality." The new office will share information on issues related to foreign residents in Japan and coordinate responses among relevant offices such as the Immigration Services Agency, the Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

Japan PM eyes tighter oversight of foreign residents via new office - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday launched a new office within the Cabinet Secretariat tasked with reviewing and reworking gov

mainichi.jp

 

[Mikawa Ossan]

Scary times we live in.

 

[thomas]

According to government data released on Saturday, a total of 21,450,220 people had voted early by Friday in advance of Sunday's House of Councillors election, marking the highest number of early voters ever recorded for either chamber of the Japanese parliament. The figure represents 20.58% of all eligible voters. The high turnout may be partly due to the election day falling in the middle of a three-day weekend, encouraging more people to cast their ballots ahead of time. Early voting began on 4 July, one day after the official campaign period commenced. The final total is expected to rise further once votes cast on Saturday are counted.

The previous record for early voters was 21,379,977 in the 2017 election for the Lower House. The record high for an Upper House election was 19,613,475 in 2022.

Record 21.45 million people vote early in Upper House poll

The figure represents 20.58% of all voters, with many people using the system given the long weekend.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[thomas]

Mainichi had an interesting piece on the political campaign trail in Saitama: in Kawaguchi, where foreigners make up 8.4% of the population, and Warabi, where they account for 13.3%. Nippon Ishin and Sanseito played the "safety" and the "immigration" card. Even the Komeito candidate at JR Warabi Station stated, "We'll deport people staying illegally. We'll say no to the abuse and misuse of refugee applications." It appears that a significant number of former LDP voters have changed their loyalty, planning to vote for Sanseito this time.

All of them, according to Mainichi, ignored reality.

On the alleged preferential treatment of foreigners:

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, foreigners made up 4% of national health insurance policyholders in 2023, a 1.4 percentage point increase over the past decade. However, medical expenses paid to foreigners accounted for only 1.39% of the total between March 2023 and February 2024. A ministry official noted, "Generally, older people visit doctors. Foreign residents, many of whom are young, don't use medical services as much as Japanese people." Some foreigners with permanent or long-term residency receive assistance equivalent to welfare for Japanese. In 2023, approximately 46,000 foreign households received this livelihood protection, accounting for 2.8% of the total. This number has only increased by about 1,000 households over the past decade, despite a 65% increase in the foreign population during the same period.

On crimes committed by non-Japanese residents:

However, among those cracked down on for violations of the Penal Code and special laws by Saitama Prefectural Police, 1,116 were foreigners in 2019, making up 7.9% of the total, compared with 1,127 in 2024, accounting for 8.8%. While the percentage increased by 0.9 points, the number of those apprehended remained nearly flat. During these five years, the foreign population in the prefecture increased by 27%, yet the number of recognized Penal Code offenses has decreased since 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, it's hard to say that public safety has significantly worsened due to foreigners.

Upper house race candidates call for controls on foreigners near Tokyo, ignoring reality - The Mainichi

SAITAMA -- As the July 20 House of Councillors election approaches in Japan, political parties are fervently arguing for regulations on foreigners. Ma

mainichi.jp

And whatever they scream:

Without foreign staff, restaurants could not stay open, says exec | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

www.asahi.com

That also applies to other industries.

 

[thomas]

Photo credit: Mainichi

It is certain: PM Ishiba's ruling coalition failed to secure a majority in the 248-seat upper house in a crucial parliamentary election.

LDP's support base is thinning, Ishiba intends to remain in office despite the coalition's loss of seats.

Japan's shaky government loses upper house control

The outcome further weakens Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power.

www.reuters.com

 

[thomas]

After last Sunday's detrimental results for the ruling coalition, PM Ishiba faces severe criticism from LDP members.

Yesterday, PM Ishiba came under increasing pressure from members of his own LDP to step aside, following the ruling coalition's significant losses in the House of Councillors election. Although Ishiba has indicated his intention to remain in office, citing what he has described as a "national crisis" that requires stable leadership, his position has become increasingly unstable, particularly now that the coalition no longer controls either chamber of the Diet. Some within the LDP, particularly those representing more conservative factions, have openly questioned his leadership; Upper House member Hiroshi Yamada suggested via social media that the prime minister should take responsibility for the coalition's defeat. Eikei Suzuki, a Lower House member, urged Ishiba to come to a decision swiftly, implying that the prime minister might be underestimating the gravity of the electoral loss.

PM Ishiba faces resignation calls from within LDP after election loss - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday faced mounting pressure from within his Liberal Democratic Party to step down and t

mainichi.jp

The approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet dipped to just under 23%, the lowest level since he took office in October.

Although Ishiba is facing growing calls from within his Liberal Democratic Party to step down to take responsibility for Sunday's election drubbing, respondents of the survey were divided on the issue, with 51.6% demanding his resignation and 45.8% thinking otherwise. On policies regarding foreigners, which took center stage in election campaigning amid a growing number of workers and tourists from overseas, 65.6% backed stricter regulations on issues such as immigration control and real estate acquisition, while 26.7% did not want any changes, and 4.4% called for easing the regulations.

Support for PM Ishiba Cabinet hits record-low 23% after election loss - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The approval rating for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Cabinet dipped to just under 23 percent, the lowest level since he t

mainichi.jp

 

[thomas]

An Asahi survey on the stance of Japanese parties regarding vaccines, foreigners, and conspiracy theories:

Source: Asahi

In the most recent analysis, responses from 1,961 individuals who indicated their voting preference in the proportional representation segment just before the Upper House election on 18 July were examined. When asked to place themselves on a political spectrum from 0 (left) to 10 (right), supporters of Sanseito recorded an average score of 6.1. This put them further to the right than backers of most major parties, though not as far as the average 7.0 score of Conservative Party of Japan supporters. Their positioning, however, was very close to the average support of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, at 6.2. Nevertheless, Sanseito supporters demonstrated a notable level of scepticism towards the government. On a trust scale ranging from 1 ("do not trust the government at all") to 5 ("completely trust the government"), their average response was just 2.1. This figure was lower than that of LDP supporters, who averaged 3.0, and also fell below the 2.6 average of Komeito supporters. It was also below the average trust levels among opposition party voters, including the 2.4 average for those aligned with Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) and the 2.3 average of those supporting the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

Survey: Sanseito faithful a new breed of political animal in Japan | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

Another interesting trend: DPP backers abandoned the party for Sanseito in the Upper House election last Sunday.

...but an analysis of voter trends in both parties in the months leading up to the election indicates a significant shift by those who previously voted for the DPP to Sanseito this time. Thirteen proved to be the lucky number for both parties. The DPP went into the election contesting four seats and finishing with 17, for a total of 22 Upper House seats, including five seats not up for election. Sanseito, a populist right-wing party, increased its Upper House total from one to 14 seats. A survey conducted between February and July by the Asahi Shimbun and Asako Miura, a University of Osaka professor who has written about how psychological behavior on social media toward news spreads, showed that while the DPP increased its seat total, it lost support over the six month period as Sanseito gained more backing.

DPP backers abandoned party for Sanseito in Upper House poll, analysis shows

An analysis of voter trends in both parties in the months leading up to the election has indicated a significant shift to Sanseito by those who once voted for the DPP.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Vincent3]

This concerned me when I first heard about it. Along with hoping to return to Japan someday, I'm concerned about other foreigners being discriminated against. Thankfully, there are plenty of Japanese people who disapprove of the anti-foreigner sentiment.